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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 1, 2021 11:27:52 GMT -5
That's fair - I've never thought to read a listing on DRS on Fangraphs (for the reason noted). I always find it best to quote exactly if you're quoting, but i get what you were doing. My bad on calling you out. An example of DRS SSS noise, according to that stat, Jose Iglesias is the worst defender in baseball. I'm not sure what's going on with Iglesias this year, but he currently has 16 errors, which is 5 more than his previous career high. He also has a -8.7 UZR/150 (8th worst in baseball) and his OAA per Baseball Savant is negative for the first time since they've tracked it (2016). This is a good example of taking the extreme of a statistic/metric with a grain of salt while noticing that it is showing you something. Iglesias seems to have fallen off defensively, which would make sense as he's 31. Iglesias recently lost his starting job to Jack Mayfield, so perhaps you're onto something.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 19:40:49 GMT -5
Boo lets get him in the top 50 by end of the year. Is BA updating monthly now?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 19:32:54 GMT -5
library.fangraphs.com/defense/drs/The other thing to remember is that DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/The other thing to remember is that UZR isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful. Is it a "intentional misquote"...technically yes...I did it to avoid posting the "identical" paragraphs twice. I think this is within reason. If not, sorry...it was in good faith. That's fair - I've never thought to read a listing on DRS on Fangraphs (for the reason noted). I always find it best to quote exactly if you're quoting, but i get what you were doing. My bad on calling you out.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 13:14:02 GMT -5
UZR/150: -20.2 (-25.6 in CF) - 2nd worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Clint Frazier is -20.5) DRS: -5 in 214 innings (-0.0234 per inning) - 5th worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Ketel Marte, Abraham Almonte, Matt Beaty and Phillip Evans are worse) Worst might be a slight exaggeration, but he's in the conversation for worst OF defender in MLB based on the UZR/DRS. "The other thing to remember is that UZR/DRS isn’t going to work well in small sample sizes, especially a couple of months or less. Once you get to one and three-year samples, it’s a relatively solid metric but defensive itself is quite variable so you need a good amount of data for the metrics to become particularly useful." library.fangraphs.com/defense/uzr/Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he is above average or something, just don't brand him as a butcher just yet purely based on SSS UZR/DRS. Statcast has him as average but that is also based on just 50 attempts. With this little data your eyes and his scouting report are closer to reality than any stat. The 1 to 3 years is due to having such small samples of defensive numbers each year. To be as accurately predictive as offensive statistics (which aren't as predictive as we would like) it takes between 1 and 3 years (depending on position and opportunities) rather than only 1 year (for offensive statistics) due to decreased sample size. For Duran, an easy way to look at it is that you should only be about half as confident in his fielding being predictive of future success/failure as you are of his offensive statistics (this comment is not statistically accurate, but neither is the 1 to 3 years due to SSS - more 'rule of thumb'). But this SSS isn't saying 'we don't know if he has been good or bad', it's saying 'we don't know if his performance so far is particularly predictive of future success or failure'. Both UZR and DRS show that he has been quite bad so far. Also, please avoid intentionally misquoting the sources you cite - it only muddies the waters and is generally frowned-upon on a friendly forum. DRS doesn't come from Fangraphs (Fielding Bible) so they won't typically comment on particulars. Statcast has him as 0 OAA and +1% success rate added - which is encouraging.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 11:47:46 GMT -5
I think Duran will begin to hit for a high enough average and with enough power to fit in perfectly at 2B. That is assuming he can play 2B. We already know he can't play CF and I believe that ship has sailed. He's simply not showing enough improvement in CF. Statistically he's arguably the worst OF in MLB. And that is after around three years of playing CF. This assessment needs citations to back it up. Otherwise, it is just noise. UZR/150: -20.2 (-25.6 in CF) - 2nd worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Clint Frazier is -20.5) DRS: -5 in 214 innings (-0.0234 per inning) - 5th worst in MLB among outfielders with 200+ innings (Ketel Marte, Abraham Almonte, Matt Beaty and Phillip Evans are worse) Worst might be a slight exaggeration, but he's in the conversation for worst OF defender in MLB based on the UZR/DRS.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2021 17:39:21 GMT -5
He's certainly using the split more. View AttachmentAnd it's certainly dropped in velocity. View AttachmentBut I'm not sure the velocity drop is necessarily a good thing, as it's now in the same velo band as the slider. Ideally, I'd think you'd want three distinct velo bands. See, e.g., Sale. View AttachmentWe'll have to wait and see how it plays. I'm glad he's actually trying to use the pitch now, though. It looks like he might be tinkering with the splitter/sinker. Would be nice if he could keep it consistently around 90 - 5mph isn't much but it's something.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 27, 2021 17:21:54 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 11:53:42 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 14, 2021 11:50:36 GMT -5
The stolen base/caught stealing numbers on the player stat pages are incorrect. I found this to be the case with Duran, Jimenez and Devers (but not Casas or Chavis). The player profile pages appear to be correct (they don't match the stat pages). To be clear, you mean, like, this page? www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=680776And what pages are you comparing whatever page is wrong to? Just curious. Appreciate the heads up. Sorry I missed this - yes that's what I mean. I was originally going to list the couple of players for whom I noticed the issue but quickly realized it was common throughout.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 13, 2021 12:54:20 GMT -5
In fact - and I didn't expect this when I started looking up the stats - the all-star types that got traded have largely done worse with their new teams. (The main exceptions are Scherzer, Berrios, Gibson... is it a pitcher thing? Probably just noise.) Without looking to far into it, you could point out that two of those pitchers changed divisions while the other changed leagues, as a possible reason for added success (fewer opportunities for the hitters to have seen them over the past year). But I have a hunch the most correct answer is 'they're really good' (at least with Scherzer and Berrios).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 13, 2021 12:48:05 GMT -5
Yeah know when the moderators asked us to stop with the back and forth about players being human and having normal emotions about things I did as asked and stopped. But I see now that some of you want to continue that banter as you still feel the need to bring it up. This will be my last comment, sorry I lied before but I can't help myself, I'm human. I think it is funny if not annoying that you all think you know better than the players and coaches that actually play the games. Have any of you actually ever played or were you the waterboys? Countless players and coaches thru the years have spoken about this in all team sports but you guys know better I get it. I think I will just laugh at you rather than get annoyed. I partially agree with the sentiment. You could see how defeated Xander looked during that 1st TB series. I don't think it's a coincidence that the team just fell apart completely after the deadline. They haven't won a single series. They hadn't lost 4 games in a row all year up until that point. You also see guys like Rizzo and Scherzer performing out of their minds. Could the fact that they knew they were on losers have impacted their performance? I get it, super small sample sizes, but the before and after is staggering. You could argue that someone like Rizzo was starting to perform better before the deadline, which I think actually furthers the point because they wanted to get traded to a winner. Yes, they're all professionals and need to act as such. I just know my job is easier when I'm enjoying my work. It doesn't mean I'm bad at my job when I'm having a bad day, but my job is easier when I'm in my element. This team was left in the dust by ownership. They felt they were a winner and the organization said no. They aren't exactly hitting back and proving them wrong. There seems to be a lot of whining in the clubhouse. Fans whine. I whine. I really don't want the team to whine and make excuses. Was the team over achieving and preforming better than numbers would suggest? Yes. Is their talent level the worst team in baseball? Because that's what they've been. Perhaps the human element that keeps being mentioned is actually the fans being emotional about their team losing and searching for a scapegoat on which to apply the recent run of losses. As exhibit A, I'll point out your 'feeling' that the Red Sox have been 'the worst in baseball' while there have actually been 3 teams that have been worse and 2 teams that have been equally as bad. I would argue that a couple of poor managerial decisions (let's see if Houck can go 6 innings...) and a rookie callup who has been pretty awful so far (-3 DRS/-1.5 UZR to go with 41wRC) are primary culprits along with some bad luck and an above-average difficult schedule.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 4, 2021 20:06:33 GMT -5
Especially when they haven't even given their trade acquisition a chance yet
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 4, 2021 13:16:36 GMT -5
does anyone know when the final luxury tax calculation is done? After last game of season? World series? I have seen people report that a bunch of Sox players are going to hit bonuses which is going to push their number over? Based on past years - Mid-November
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 3, 2021 10:51:01 GMT -5
Not getting a PTBNL from the Mets that could crack the August top 30 has gotta be a disappointment. Don't forget - they have Winckowski at 16.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 16:17:04 GMT -5
Which is higher: the chance Sherff makes it onto a 40-man this December or the chance Robles is still on the Red Sox at the end of the season?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 15:54:56 GMT -5
Given the modest acquisitions, I have to think they prioritized staying below the LT threshold (and that the Cubs are eating some of Schwarber's August and September payout). Otherwise, they would have been more aggressive in taking on salary to upgrade the team. I thought it would be easy to get a 1B who could provide average production. Schwarber will be nice to have once he is able to, you know, play BB again. But I was hoping for real 1B and BP upgrades. If they can get the Cubs to pay his salary, that really would be a coup.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 15:41:22 GMT -5
I’m a bit perplexed that we went barely over the cap again. Why not include some lesser prospect who is in the 40 man crunch and get the Nats to take on some of the Schwarbo money? A. They're incompetent B. You're wrong - they're not on pace to go over C. They're on pace to go over but have a plan to remain under (e.g. Richards on waivers come August 31st) Remember - they're very very far from over at the moment. It just matters if they're on pace to go over and that can still be fixed.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 15:30:25 GMT -5
Mookie was traded because 1) Dombrowski made the fatal error of signing Kelly, Pierce, Eovalid and Sale sucking up most of the money; 2) Pedroia's dead money sucked up the rest of the money; 3) Mookie wanted to test the market and turned down the Sox best bid, which was reported to be around $350M for 10 years. So think about it, if Mookie took the money he ultimately took (give or take $10M) he'd still be here. The only player he traded who could've plugged RF would've been Margot, who is barely an MLB average player. Dombrowski traded mostly dreck. And as was mentioned, he won divisions and a WS. You forgot $200+ million for David Price (the nicest man the Red Sox ever signed except for maybe Carl Crawford). Don't worry, Price won't pickup his player option so the $200mil doesn't really count...I'm still waiting.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 15:25:08 GMT -5
When will we find out if we’re over the cap? Based on past years - around mid-November. It's not set in stone until the year is over and the accountants have at it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 10:02:03 GMT -5
Gibson having a great year. Would be an upgrade over most of the rotation if they could get him at the right price. He is having a career year...in BABIP, HR/FB and LOB%. He's a solid pitcher and has implemented a cutter this year, but it looks like he's essentially the same pitcher he has been over the past few years, just a bit luckier. I would expect he provides similar production to Pivetta for the rest of the year and I don't see a great need there - he is signed for 2022 though, so the Sox may see him as a Richards/Perez replacement for next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 9:27:42 GMT -5
By the way, if you're a believer that BABIP is generally luck driven. The Red Sox pitching staff currently has a .323 BABIP, that's the worst in the majors by a wide margin (Baltimore is 2nd at .312).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 30, 2021 9:23:50 GMT -5
I really don't see the need to make another move, outside of shedding salary if needed (as they're right up against the lux tax now).
If Schwarber doesn't play 1B, he doesn't make any sense as the team didn't need another OFer. (Once Arroyo is back, they will have Kiké, Duran, Verdugo and Renfroe + the backups)
For pitching, the bullpen is pretty solid (can always use more if the right trade appears) so there's no urgency.
Currently the playoff rotation looks like: Sale Eovaldi Eduardo Houck/Whitlock (piggy back)
That leaves Pivetta, Perez and Richards to slide to the bullpen making it even stronger. If you prefer Pivetta in the rotation then Houck+Whitlock along with Ottavino & Barnes make the Red Sox challengers for best back-end pitching in baseball.
As is, the Red Sox will have some tough decisions in ~2 weeks once their injured players are back. Outside of a minor bullpen depth move in which the benefit would be worth the cost (unless they trade Richards or someone else).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2021 23:12:15 GMT -5
Great trade. Hopefully the Red Sox can keep Schawber long term, but they got a stud for a lottery ticket. This is what I've been hoping for. I don't know if he's going to be their 1B though so I wonder if another move is coming. LF - Schwarber CF - Verdugo RF - Renfroe 2B - Kiké DH - JD Martinez 1B - ? Why no Arroyo? Schwarber only makes sense if he is the strong side platoon at 1b.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2021 20:07:00 GMT -5
I just don't understand the people saying that we need to trade prospects to improve our team. That would be an utter failure by Bloom, especially with Sale coming back. Even great teams don't get the chance to add a Cy Young winner at the cost of nothing at the trade deadline. Other teams are making redundant transactions in an effort to claw back from holes they are in. The idea that the Red Sox go from best record in baseball currently to not having a good chance at making it to the WS because the Yankees acquired Joey Gallo and Anthony Rizzo is dilutional. Why are you even here? You clearly believe in everything Bloom and the Sox are doing, no matter what it is or isn't, so why aren't you in bed right now, resting easy knowing you will never be disappointed because you have no standards or expectations. Because I'm on the west coast and it's 6 o'clock. But yeah, I feel pretty good about things. Just checked in the forum after seeing the Dodger's pending trade to see if there are any new Sox rumors. Doesn't appear so.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 29, 2021 20:05:02 GMT -5
I just don't understand the people saying they would be ok with the Sox doing nothing. That would be an utter failure by Bloom, even with Sale coming back. Even great teams need to add this time of year. Other teams are getting better. I know you guys love these prospects, but most of them are gonna amount to nothing. Give me the proven commodity. Especially in a year where you have a real good chance at making it to the WS. Since before the season began we knew the Sox were trying to stay under the salary cap and didn't have space to make any big changes. Why would I be upset about something now that I've known for the past few months? I do think we will see bloom trade a couple of marginal pieces for a left platoon bat, but I'd be surprised if there is much more. (best hope is to trade Garrett Richards to open tax space and perhaps get a bigger name)
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