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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2021 14:56:17 GMT -5
I just saw Ian's video on Yorke's swing. Looks pretty consistent and compact with a short swing and balanced stride.
One thing I caught that I really liked is that he seems to shift his weight to run before he finishes his swing. These days it seems like players are fully focused on their swings and hitting bombs and don't begin the process of running until their swing is complete, but it should help him beat out a few grounders and turn a few singles into doubles or doubles into triples.
Of course the extreme example of this was Ichiro who seemed to be running to first upon making contact with the ball (much easier to do this as a lefty though).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 10, 2021 13:54:07 GMT -5
I’ve seen a few people mention trading Eovaldi, but with only a year left on his contract and with his salary I would guess many teams would rather just spend the equivalent amount in free agency. If anything I would consider extending him a year or 2 if we plan on being over the tax the next 2 or 3 years. This year and his next couple years could be his peak years considering how he is mastering his pitches now, and keeps himself in great physical condition. If we were to trade a starting pitcher Pivetta could be a sneaky good trade piece considering he is really cheap the next few years. Plus with the depth we have coming up Seabold, Crawford, Winckowski, Bello etc along with Houck and Whitlock possible starters next year maybe you can take that risk. Could Pivetta and Duran get you a blue chip young talent you really like? I would love to get a young outfielder that projects to be better than Duran especially considering K Hernandez and Renfroe are on short contracts. I like the idea of trading Pivetta IF it returns a top-end reliever AND the Red Sox botrh resign Eduardo and pickup a top-half of the rotation pitcher in free agency. Whitlock and Houck are fantastic, but neither are as proven as Pivetta as a pitcher who can consistently go 5+ innings. Need that depth/security blanket from somewhere.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 10:38:37 GMT -5
But you can't really apply the Rays' track record in free agency here. They don't have the Red Sox' resources. If a partner at a law firm ate noodle ramen a ton in law school when he didn't have money it doesn't mean he's going to eat noodle ramen while making in the high 6 figures, right?So...you gave up noodle ramen? (also, is there a non-noodle ramen?)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 2:53:45 GMT -5
You can see the overall stats which I provided, but in terms of 4 inning appearances where he's given up 1-2 runs, that has only occurred twice this year. In his start prior to last he held the Indians scoreless and hitless through 5 innings - which is pretty dominant. The biggest difference this year is his walk rate, which has been by far the best he has posted at any stop in his professional career. OK, definitely a air point that he cut his walks way down, which was his major issue last year despite the results (and is what's fueling the various FIP, etc. improvements). I guess I was looking more at end results than anything. I'll cede that he's probably been better in the innings that he's pitched. But I use that particular phrasing on purpose. That said, the fact they're not giving him nearly as much of a leash this year because of the third-time-through-the-order issue and the fact they're competing instead of... whatever last year was must be considered. In 10 starts this year he has recorded one out in the 6th inning. Last year he recorded 6 in 3 starts. It's a crude measure but it's just to make a point. Yes, he was dominant for 5 in his second-to-last start... then the wheels came off, and last time, even though he was absolutely cruising through 5 again, they didn't even let him start the sixth. That's pretty telling. In my head, I guess I'm factoring that "early exit" penalty in saying he's been worse. Like what would his numbers look like in a year in which they didn't care and just let him work through his third-time issues to try and get past 6 full? I'm very happy that Cora pulled him after 5 innings (and only 68 pitches) in his last start. There have been a couple of instances where I check gamecast (I haven't been able to watch many games this year) and have to hold myself back from yelling at the screen 'why is Houck still in the game Cora!'; after which Houck proceeded to get shelled. It is interesting that he pitched for a longer period of time last year in 2 of those 3 starts without seeming to have negative side effect. Looking a little closer, in 2020 he pitched 3 innings and gave up 2 walks, no hits and had 1 strikeout in his third trip through the lineup. It stands out that the results indicate that he had no negative effects while having 1 fewer pitches to throw (only threw splitter 2.3% of the time last year - and that number seems fuzzy) but also stands out that he had only 1 strikeout, so maybe that number is more indicative of how he was performing? Maybe the pitch mix was different which allowed him to go further? Maybe because he was throwing softer (almost 2mph per pitch on average) he was able to go longer? Maybe I'm spending far too much time trying to analyze a very small sample size? (it's probably this one) What do you think? Has there actually been a negative change in performance/ability for the 3rd time through the lineup or did the Red Sox just not care last year and received lucky results?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 2:35:07 GMT -5
I'm not doubting Steve Adams projection, but that's 1 more year and a higher AAV than the closest comp (Verlander) and Fangraphs projected he was worth (100k) over that contract.
Maybe he's the ONLY (in recent history) non-Clemens outlier, but at some point the Unicorn is going to lose it's horn, and once the horn falls off all you're left with is a horse. You wouldn't pay 100mil for a horse would you?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 9, 2021 2:11:28 GMT -5
Just a thought - is there an indication anywhere on the player pages that shows when the scouting profile was last updated? Might be handy as it would provide context and show how much work you guys are doing behind the scenes. Might I introduce you to the scouting log? www.soxprospects.com/scouting.htm Haha, that's true. Looking at it again I can see that it's not too hard to simply run a search on that page of the player's name to find the corresponding report and it's not as long as I picture in my head(in my mind I always think of it like the transaction page, which is a great reference, but can get a bit long for non-recent transactions). It would be nice if there was a reference date on the player page that would be fed from the scouting log, but I don't know how practical this would be.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 14:07:40 GMT -5
Just a thought - is there an indication anywhere on the player pages that shows when the scouting profile was last updated?
Might be handy as it would provide context and show how much work you guys are doing behind the scenes.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 13:02:56 GMT -5
I think we should keep in mind that due to the lost season last year, the minor league teams at the bottom are quite impacted, as there are 2020 draftees and DSL guys who would typically be in Salem by now. This may continue a bit next year while the org finds a place for everyone to go, but it shouldn't been indicative of how this new system will be going forward.
That isn't to say it's a good thing or a bad thing, but it's too early to judge.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 10:41:45 GMT -5
Daniel Victor @slydanno70 Watched a kid named Chase Shugart pitch for the High-A Red Sox last night. He’s short for a starter 5’10” he’s old for the level, but he has some legit stuff. FB touched 97 and he has big time confidence in his plus curveball. Threw it first pitch several times. Daniel Victor @slydanno70 · 2h Replying to @slydanno70 Likely a reliever long term if he makes it, but he wasn’t a throw away prospect. I wonder if his rule 5 status plays a role in keeping him as a starter through the year. Seems like a guy who the Red Sox would have moved to the bullpen by now, but if he takes off in that role that he could be grabbed in the rule 5 draft (bullpen arms seem to be the easiest to draft/use). Chances are they are simply following the plan with him and there are going to be so many rule-5 guys available this year (because of the missed development year) that he wouldn't be considered. But I'm curious how often this happens (keeping a SP in that role longer than needed to reduce the chance of being drafted).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 10:29:40 GMT -5
I noticed on the Cup of Coffee (thank you Jim) that Mayer just had his 10th error of the season; in 19 games. Has anyone had a chance to scout his defense? What seems to be causing the errors?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 8, 2021 8:09:59 GMT -5
I think your memory might be playing tricks on you, or you may be undervaluing how good Houck has been this year. If you take his W/L record (3-0) and ERA (0.53) then he's been worse, but nobody in MLB history has sustained that level of success over a season so it's not quite fair. But if you look at his peripherals this year he's actually been better (the numbers overlap a fair bit): K/9 - 11.23 to 11.12 BB/9 - 2.17 to 4.76 xERA - 3.45 to 3.71 FIP - 2.48 to 3.25 xFIP - 3.23 to 3.73 The numbers include his 4 innings of relief, but also his 3rd time through the order stats (because it took Cora a while to figure out what we all already knew...). If anyone is wondering: 2.2 IP, 6H, 0BB, 2K, 3HBP and 8 earned runs. I'm not sure anyone is 'guaranteed' a rotation spot in 2022, but if he continues to dominate through 5 innings then he will be 3rd on the list. He’s not really dominating through 5 though, he did in his last outing against Cleveland so that was nice but in his other games where he hovered around that innings totals he was very meh. In 2020 he gave them great starts of 5, 6, and 6 innings. I can see why that’s remembered more fondly than a bunch of 4 innings, 1-2 run outings You can see the overall stats which I provided, but in terms of 4 inning appearances where he's given up 1-2 runs, that has only occurred twice this year. In his start prior to last he held the Indians scoreless and hitless through 5 innings - which is pretty dominant. The biggest difference this year is his walk rate, which has been by far the best he has posted at any stop in his professional career.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 22:13:17 GMT -5
But remember, the fact that Houck was electric in his three 2020 starts did not guarantee him a rotation spot this year. He's made more starts this year but been worse, so why would we assume he's got a rotation spot in 2022? I think your memory might be playing tricks on you, or you may be undervaluing how good Houck has been this year. If you take his W/L record (3-0) and ERA (0.53) then he's been worse, but nobody in MLB history has sustained that level of success over a season so it's not quite fair. But if you look at his peripherals this year he's actually been better (the numbers overlap a fair bit): K/9 - 11.23 to 11.12 BB/9 - 2.17 to 4.76 xERA - 3.45 to 3.71 FIP - 2.48 to 3.25 xFIP - 3.23 to 3.73 The numbers include his 4 innings of relief, but also his 3rd time through the order stats (because it took Cora a while to figure out what we all already knew...). If anyone is wondering: 2.2 IP, 6H, 0BB, 2K, 3HBP and 8 earned runs. I'm not sure anyone is 'guaranteed' a rotation spot in 2022, but if he continues to dominate through 5 innings then he will be 3rd on the list.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 21:59:38 GMT -5
Max Scherzer turns 38 next year. The list of pitchers who have had multiple successful seasons at his age is slim, especially if you weed out steroid guys and knuckleballers. That’s not the kind of move that a GM who wants to build a sustainable contender would seem to want to make. When he was 36 Justin Verlander signed a 2 year extension for his age 37 & 38 seasons, that's a bit younger than Scherzer, but the closest/only comp out there (Clemens was a similar age...but I don't think he should count here) for a starting pitcher over 35 getting a big money multi-year deal. Coming off a 6.3 fWAR season, Verlander has accumulated a total of 6 innings and 0 fWAR for 66mil/2years. I wouldn't mind taking a flyer on Verlander depending on the cost. Giving old pitchers multiple years at large AAV is VERY risky.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 15:15:29 GMT -5
Richard's has a club option at 10mil (1.5mil buyout) - unless he really crushes it in relief for the final month, I don't think he will be back. If he pitches how he has recently, I think it's a legit option. Next year is the year you plan on going over and it's a one year deal so it's not like you're overpaying with years that will screw you when you need to get under the cap. He replaces the role Whitlock provided and may even be the type of guy who can slip into the 8th/9th inning at some point. We need bullpen help, and if he looks lights out in that role and is ready to move on from starting I think it's a win/win. I like the fit - just not the cost. If he's going to make 8.5mil then he would have to prove to be a legit setup-man or better. It's possible that happens, but there will be other very good relievers available for that much money. So far he has given up 11 hits and 4 walks over 15.2 innings (with 19 strikeouts). If he can keep up that pace while becoming the setup-man/closer for the rest of the year, then I'd get on board. More to prove for now.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 15:09:11 GMT -5
Sure another "ace" would be nice, but like you said, with one addition the rotation is kind of set and in a good state. The bullpen however will be in shambles. Appearance leader, setup and high leverage man Ottavino will be gone, at least one of Houch/Whitlock will probably start. Taylor and Barnes are good, the rest is questionmarks. @chris Hatfield by top3 do you mean top3 rotation type, or one of the top 3 FA available? Ranking would look something like this probably: Ray, Gausman, DeSclafani, ERod, Gray, Wood Ray gets lots of strikeouts and Gausman has been a solid pitcher for a while - but both are having career years at 30. I don't trust that. The others are mid-rotation guys at this point - ERod is better and younger. I'd like to throw-in Rodon and Syndergaard. Rodon and ERod are both 28, so the youngest of the group. Noah goes to the top if he proves to be healthy.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 14:57:46 GMT -5
If we sign Erod, the rotation generally seems set with depth options as well. Sale/Erod/Eovaldi/Pivetta/Whitlock. Houck/Richards/Seabold. Makes me wonder if a trade is in place. I'm happy with all those options but wouldn't complain if they traded away a Pivetta and sweetened the pot in an attempt to bring in an ACE. Having an Ace at the top who can sit with Sale as the 1a and 1b guy gives us a world series caliber starting rotation next year. Richard's has a club option at 10mil (1.5mil buyout) - unless he really crushes it in relief for the final month, I don't think he will be back.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 7, 2021 2:35:50 GMT -5
He's got sprint speed but I don't hold out hope about his first step. If Jarren Duran has taught us anything, it's that speed alone does not a good defensive outfielder make. He's got poor range at first base. I don't like his chances of having a good first step at an unfamiliar position in left. But if someone has a slow reaction time (poor first step) it hurts far less in the OF than the IF. Also, his arm would benefit him with the wall. All speculation, but it seems 3B to LF is a conversion that usually works well - or at least isn't a disaster.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 3, 2021 8:39:27 GMT -5
On Song: Given the previous reporting, we were hoping by this point in the process there would be more clarity regarding his potential return. The fact that there isn’t anything presents additional uncertainty regarding when and whether he’ll return to baseball, which is why he’s starting to fall in all rankings, not just ours. His projection grade was adjusted to reflect that uncertainty as well. (Compare to Mata - when knew when he's coming back, roughly. Consider if Mata, say, still wasn't throwing by mid-2022, I think that's a fair comp.) On Bleis there will be a Scout Chatter coming imminently. Keep an eye out. We've also discussed him on the podcast. wcsoxfan, are you seriously asking if a guy named "Wilkelman" has a nickname? Why on earth would you give him a nickname??? Too many syllables! (and letters to type - I'm lazy) "The Wilk-Man delivers?" (doesn't help with the syllables/letters - but best I've got) Gotcha on Song. My understanding was that he was expected back by the beginning of 2022 with a late 2021 return possible, I can understand that no info by now would make prospect rankers nervous. If he meets the original timetable of being back by the start of 2022, would he move back to a 4.5? (I was pretty excited about him when they drafted him -and still a bit excited)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 14:57:51 GMT -5
I just saw the new rankings and I have to say 'Bravo' I think you guys nailed it pretty much across the board. Seemed to be some more aggresive changes than normal, but changes were warranted with performances by Yorke and Wilk (does he have a nickname?) among others. I was surprised about one thing though: why did Song drop? Was this because he's not coming back to baseball this season as some were expecting/hoping for? Was there a significant enough gap between Mata and Song that pushed 3 players in-between them? Is there doubt he will ever come back? Is this a re-adjustment from earlier overranking? I'd like to hear your guys' insights as in my mind Mata/Song were in a similar boat (despite different circumstances for their time missed). Edit: I just noticed he was dropped from a 4.5 to a 4, which would indicate a gap between Mata & Song - what was the reason for the grade reduction? For Song, I would assume it's less that he's dropping and more that a number of guys have done very well and raised their stock. Blaze Jordan, Wilkelman Gonzalez, Chris Murphy, and Brayan Bello being big examples of this, but it's been a pretty positive year across the system. Song is ranked 15th and he started the year 12th. Mayer was drafted, who would very clearly rank above him, and so you only need two real breakouts to make up the difference. Between August and September, the site's grade on Song was reduced.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 14:55:09 GMT -5
nypost.com/2021/09/01/mlb-makes-new-service-time-proposal-to-players-union-sherman/Big fan of using age instead of service time. The incentives create a healthier environment. It's funny that this is framed as a concession by the owners. There is some age number where age vs service time is neutral in the zero sum competition between owners and players, but the shift is positive sum so each side should want to do it. I don't know what an appropriate age should be. One thing to note is that the best players tend to reach free agency younger. So the median age of free agents is higher than the age of the player the median free agent dollar is spent on. That age could really impact college players (depending on the cutoff). Most players who go to college don't make the majors by 23.5 years-of-age. I bet MLB would save quite a bit of money not having to negotiate with each arbitration eligible player. An agreed upon pool would be great on paper - but if revenue were to go down at some point (like a pandemic) the reaction from the players could get ugly.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 14:48:53 GMT -5
As I think we have since Schwarber was activated, this roster really doesnt function well with both of them in the every day lineup. They should both be considered 100% DH's. Defensively it is impractical to have both of them in the lineup at the same time. Chaim preached flexibilty last offseason on acquiring players who could play multiple positions. If he believe in that, he is not bringing back these two guys, who cant play one position defensively. If JD opts in, Schwarber goes. If JD opts out, I think they try to resign Schwarber. There's still the possibility of 1B. That seemed to be the original plan with Schwarber when they traded for him, so if he could get some playing time at 1B along with splitting time with Martinez at DH while Martinez splits time at DH/LF, it could work. It would also buy a year for Casas to become ready, at which time Schwarber could move to the DH/LF role as Martinez becomes a free agent. I think JD opts-in for next year. He seems to like it here and since he's 34 I don't expect a team to guarantee him 3+ years. (if they do though, I would quickly reverse my opinion on this) If we go with your assumption that one of Martinez/Schwarber leaves, then who becomes the platoon with Dalbec next year? Shaw? I'm excited by how well Dalbec has played over the past month, but not enough to feel comfortable without a lefty 1B option on the roster next year.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 12:17:53 GMT -5
I just saw the new rankings and I have to say 'Bravo' I think you guys nailed it pretty much across the board. Seemed to be some more aggresive changes than normal, but changes were warranted with performances by Yorke and Wilk (does he have a nickname?) among others.
I was surprised about one thing though: why did Song drop? Was this because he's not coming back to baseball this season as some were expecting/hoping for? Was there a significant enough gap between Mata and Song that pushed 3 players in-between them? Is there doubt he will ever come back? Is this a re-adjustment from earlier overranking?
I'd like to hear your guys' insights as in my mind Mata/Song were in a similar boat (despite different circumstances for their time missed).
Edit: I just noticed he was dropped from a 4.5 to a 4, which would indicate a gap between Mata & Song - what was the reason for the grade reduction?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 12:03:47 GMT -5
The Bloom Shrine is now a thang. This morning, we ripped out what remained of our protected veggie garden and turned the cage into an orchid pit. Even better, The Bloom Shrine is located in The Island Garden City of Samal. This is completely over my head - but I like it.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 1, 2021 20:08:06 GMT -5
Right. It isn't noise. He's making a lot of errors. A deeper look would show the type of errors. If it's a lot of throwing errors he may be getting to balls a lot of people wouldn't reach and then attempting to make very difficult throws. And if the 1B isn't very good it may be a lot of those bad throws might have been gloved by a really good 1B. Not that I really care one way or the other, but I really liked Iglesias and thot he might be our SS for years to come, but Ian surprised that he would make a lot of errors. However, he also hit .193 in August while Mayfield has been a hit hitter lately. SSS do apply to day to day decisions, but that is a long cry from equating them with UZR whose own creators say they are only valid for year plus chunks. Isn't it crazy to think he's only 31? In my mind that was so long ago when we were hearing of all the great defensive scouting reports prior to Iglesias making his debut. I was also very excited at the time. He's had a good long career. I haven't heard anyone at Fangraphs or Michael Lichtman say that UZR is only valid for year plus chunks, do you have a source? Fangraphs says that UZR isn't going to work well in small samples, principally 1-2 month chunks; in 1-3 years it's a relatively solid metric, may be what you were remembering?. In Iglesias' case he has almost 5 months of data at a high opportunity position, which is somewhat reliable. For anyone interested in UZR, or metrics in general, I just found this from the creator of UZR. It touches on a few of the points I've brought and gets more into how UZR is a better predictor than a reflection of past success (I might have said the opposite a few posts back - apologies if I did) up but gets far more in-depth: blogs.fangraphs.com/the-fangraphs-uzr-primer/#12
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 1, 2021 19:51:28 GMT -5
One more point on Duran's defense. Isn't defense a lot more predictive than offense when a player moves from AAA to MLB ? Is there any reason at all a fielder's defense would not be exactly the same in MLB as it was in AAA? Also Fenway Park has a very deep and very difficult CF. This is an interesting question. About 10 years ago, a colleague went to Yankee Stadium to see a player he had coached who had just been called up to an AL East team as an OF. His physical attributes were similar then to Duran's now. Asked about the difficulty of the transition from AAA to MLB, he said that it was hard to overstate how much easier it was to play in the majors in some respects (and that was without considering the immensely better travel and living conditions). In the minors, you are often running on uneven surfaces and not getting true rolls. More important, as my colleague reported the conversation, this player said that in the minors, as a general rule, it was very difficulty in night games to pick up the ball off the bat because the lights were inferior to those in major league parks. I remember questions about the lighting in Buffalo before the start of the season last year, so I assume that this problem persists. Obviously, if this is true, we might reasonably hope that Duran will be a better outfielder in the majors. Further, I asked once before whether they are using the same balls in MLB and AAA, but have seen nothing on this topic. To push further: do balls at both levels react in the same way in the air? Do top-spin and backspin produce the same arc at both levels? If balls are squared up, do they lose spin and knuckle in the air (like modern soccer balls)? Even a slight variation from expected norms would make tough plays harder. The issue of lighting also perhaps connects to reads of fly balls and first-step reactions. I haven't seen much about this issue in relation to baseball, but in my own experience as a player and coach, the key to good reads and reaction times is what players do immediately before a ball is struck or thrown. As in tennis, players ordinarily have some version of a split-step which puts them in a position to break immediately in any direction once they see the ball hit. Good readers learn to use a variety of cues to anticipate where the ball is most likely to go and what they will need to do with it once they have it. As I think back (long ago) to activities I loved like competing to catch fly balls or frisbees, the key to getting there first was actually taking the first step and that depended on already being in motion before the ball was hit or the frisbee thrown.. If we think back to that modestly illuminated minor league park, we might guess that it is very difficult to link these preparatory steps to an efficient route to the ball if you can't see the ball well. Granted, from what you say, Duran seems to perform below average relative to other players in the same situation, but the key is not necessarily to be able to out-perform them but to be able to make all the plays you expect an average OF to make. I'm hopeful for his development, especially because Duran is wired pretty tight and is a fast-twitch athlete, who wants to react quickly. My guess would be that adverse conditions would hurt him more than an OF with average physical abilities, and that good ones might help him more. That, at least, is what I am hoping. It seems that pretty much all young players have struggled this year, so his offensive performance to date is hardly a surprise, but he's confident, and he knows how to make adjustments. I've been less concerned about him than about Dalbec because I don't see doubts and questions in his eyes when he comes to the plate. (And right now, finally, Dalbec looks confident at the plate. Pitchers feel it, and it makes him a better hitter.) I should add re: the comparison of AAA and MLB. The scrutiny and expectations of MLB magnify problems and make it harder for struggling players to perform. Obviously, not all players react to these kinds of pressures in the same way. I'm hoping they will push Duran to prove the doubters wrong. Thanks for the good read soxinjersey, appreciated your input and anecdotes. I'm with you on the necessity to get a good first step. When I used to paly football it was essential to always have a quick first step and especially to avoid a 'false step' (stepping with the wrong foot or in the wrong direction). In football it's far more obvious as a poor or slow first step will land you on your a%^ in a hurry. In baseball it's likely far less clear and much tougher to scout, but I'm sure just as essential (especially for infielders). The baseballs used in AAA this year and last year are the same as the majors. But AA and lower use a different baseball. I believe last year was the first year that AAA used the same baseballs as in the majors. Minor league stadiums seem to have improved quite a bit over the past couple of decades, but I haven't been to the Woosox stadium yet, maybe someone who has been on the field can comment about the field itself as well as the lighting. With a small sample size, baseball savant currently shows that Duran is getting average jumps and has great burst (not surprising) but is running very poor routes. This seems to track with what I've read from those who have scouted him. I like the optimism and I hope you're right.
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