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Post by p23w on Apr 25, 2020 8:04:39 GMT -5
Testing positive...again is not new. Malaria often "hides in the host" only to exhibit it's deliberating effects at a later date. Difference is the host is not a proliferating contagion. The wuhan virus host, may remain a contagion to others. Even with a successful vaccine the infected host "may" be contagious to those that have not been vaccinated. In the case of a baseball team the entire organization needs to be vaccinated (and test negative) and practice social distancing from fans and the media before play can resume. Accurate testing, and the possibility of an evolving virus makes a safe resumption of th 2020 baseball season less likely one would think. A short season could happen but it would be driven by tradition and economics (much like the pandemic of 1918 which saw a Red Sox world championship).
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Post by p23w on Apr 22, 2020 17:32:07 GMT -5
Where I live the farmers are working (farm equipment all over the roads) like crazy. Had a interesting conversation with a Pioneer seed person (scientist?) who told me that the Wuhan virus disrupts the function of hemoglobin molecules by altering the valence of the Fe (iron) molecule, thereby rendering it unable to transfer O2 throughout the body. Seems like a tough nut to crack regarding a fix. (vaccine). Also seems like this virus was engineered and not the product of a wet market. I miss baseball. I think (hope) Manfred will have a very short season followed by an extended playoff. Covid -19 was not made in a lab. www.sciencealert.com/here-s-what-scientists-think-of-the-coronavirus-was-made-in-a-lab-rumour/ampScience alert article is informative but no proof positive. The wet market origin for the virus seems the most likely. Not sure how "bat soup" explodes so rapidly. The Wuhan Institute of Virology was studying the virus, and the WIV has a poor track record with respect to procedures. So the likelihood remains that the virus could have escaped the lab. I am more interested in how it goes about it's business in a human host. It would seem that some kind of regulation of the (to me) insane wet markets in China is long overdue. PS A short season is infinitely better than no season. Social distancing is beginning to get annoying. Heck, I'm reading books I never thought I'd read.
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Post by p23w on Apr 18, 2020 21:49:38 GMT -5
Nah, not really. "Relatable" and "liked him for playing well" are pretty different. Lars Anderson was really relatable, Jonathan Papelbon obviously was not. Kelly always was a good interview with a good sense of humor, even when he wasn't pitching well and when I was tearing into the fact that I think the trade for him was the worst a Red Sox GM has made this century. I dunno, I don't think there's really been another player who frustrated me so much while I was rooting for him to be better because I thought he was a decent guy. Joe Kelly's quintessential trait (for me) can be summed up in one word... frustration. That and he had to be watched like a hawk. He could "loose it" as fast as any pitcher I can remember.
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Post by p23w on Apr 18, 2020 21:36:17 GMT -5
Where I live the farmers are working (farm equipment all over the roads) like crazy. Had a interesting conversation with a Pioneer seed person (scientist?) who told me that the Wuhan virus disrupts the function of hemoglobin molecules by altering the valence of the Fe (iron) molecule, thereby rendering it unable to transfer O2 throughout the body. Seems like a tough nut to crack regarding a fix. (vaccine). Also seems like this virus was engineered and not the product of a wet market. I miss baseball. I think (hope) Manfred will have a very short season followed by an extended playoff.
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Post by p23w on Mar 19, 2020 12:38:19 GMT -5
Correction: FTR it's the screening tests that yield false positives. Confirmation tests that test directly for the virus are 100% accurate. The numbers of cases are likely much higher than is being reported. The denominator can only be the number of people who have been confirmed. The true # could be 10 fold. The problems experienced in Italy is the same problem that could happen here if we didn't take the drastic measures we are now. There just aren't enough hospital beds for everyone, if the virus spread through the states that quickly (and it may be now) we could easily be no different. 45% false positives from a test kit issued by WHO should give one pause to question the expertise of this organization. Rating Italy #2 in the world for it's healthcare system only to watch Italy's top medical Doctors deny treatment to infected seniors so they could allocate resources elsewhere is, after all, what you could expect from the "second rated healthcare system" worldwide according to WHO. The problems in Italy were caused by cultural socializing in proximity.... once the healthcare system shut down the schools, etc. Common sense and refusing to yield to panic will "flatten the curve", stateside. Hospital beds can be set up in the shut down school auditoriums a-la hurricane season. The scariest result from the new hard science I have seen is the 6 hour "shelf life" of the virus in airborne form. The good news is the virus does not seem to thrive in higher temps (+70 F), but that needs verification because that too may change. FTR WHO also went on record saying that a covid vaccine would take a year (or more) to develop, test and dispense. And for a layered bureaucracy the likes of WHO this may be true. Only this is not true according to "experts" in the U.S. healthcare field. I'll go on record and state that Italy's experience WILL NOT be duplicated in the U.S.
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Post by p23w on Mar 18, 2020 21:03:56 GMT -5
FTR, WHO (the "health care experts") issue corvid-19 test kits which have a 45% false reading rate. Who also "rated" Italy as having the 2nd best healthcare system in the world, last year.
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Post by p23w on Mar 12, 2020 16:02:04 GMT -5
At this stage, all major sports need to follow suit with the NBA. Games need to be postponed. Doing anything other than that is unethical in my opinion, and puts many of the older generation of fans at great risk. There has to be a way to still generate revenue without the actual games, maybe broadcast individual team skill competitions with limited support staff and media? Best case scenario, this is an overreaction and we all chortle in 2-3 weeks when we are out of danger. Worst case scenario a lot of us start burying parents and grandparents prematurely before we decide inaction isn't an appropriate response. Me, personally, would rather be inconvenienced for a few weeks, and slightly bored, than have to explain to my kids that grandma and grandpa aren't here anymore because society is selfish. This started about 3 months ago. The Spanish flu lasted about 15 months. Your 'best case scenario', unfortunately, is not reasonable. 2-3 months is probably a more reasonable and very optimistic best case scenario. Just something to consider for the soon-to-be-played spring events: nothing is being postponed a few weeks. If they postpone now, then it's either a cancellation or a very long delay. In MLB's case, the season is so long that cancelling a couple of months isn't going to be the end of the world. But it would suck to cancel the whole season. 10 years from now we will look back at the impact this pandemic caused and likely recognize the economic affects just as greatly, if not greater, than the loss of life; in both the general country/world and MLB. Hold on. H1N1 took 17,000 lives in 2010 (with a high rate of younger victims). I don't recall the economic effects of that pandemic. Half the people I know are working from home as I write this. I don't think MLB cancels the season. When they pick-up is anybody's guess.
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Post by p23w on Mar 11, 2020 20:56:39 GMT -5
I like to undermine the severity of Coronavirus, but this is a point that people need to understand. Right now, US cases have hit 1,000 with a death toll of 32, making the percentage of death 3.2%. Of which, those with breathing complications and the elderly are most at risk.
The flu, (using low-end figures from 2019-2020) has 34 million infections with 20,000 deaths making it 0.05% die from illness. www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htmExtrapolate the coronavirus to 34 million people with a 3.2% mortality rate and 20,000 deaths becomes 1,088,000. It is a very highly contagious virus that's easy to spread and can take up to 5 days before you realize you have it. (Please correct me if my math is wrong). A. It's very unlikely that the coronavirus has a mortality rate of 3.2% in the US. But what that means there are probably something like 16,000 people who have it and only 1/16th of them have been tested. That's bad, and a really good case for canceling large gatherings in the short term. B. Or, maybe the coronavirus strain in the US is 30 times more deadly than the one in Asia and Europe. That's even worse, and an even stronger case for canceling large gatherings. C. Maybe it's all the same strain and the US just has much worse medical care. Don't like that either, and again, a good case for limiting large groups. South Korea has around 300 deaths. In Japan, the youngest to die was 50. In the U.S. nearly 40 have died and the average age was/is 75+.
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Post by p23w on Mar 11, 2020 7:45:12 GMT -5
Latency can extend as long as 14 days, ergo the Israeli quarantine on returning travelers is 2 weeks. The mortality rate for non high risk contractors is about the same as the flu, right around 1%.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 21:23:46 GMT -5
This is the guy in the Sale trade that hurt me the most. Get a 2018 championship beer stein to drown your sorrows in. So sorry. Not a boozer. Loved 2018 team, but idea was to build around the core and be contenders for years to come. That fell apart in a hurry and their is no one like Kopech on the horizon down on the farm.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 16:58:20 GMT -5
it appears Kopech's arm is feeling good again This is the guy in the Sale trade that hurt me the most.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 16:52:52 GMT -5
"The mortality rate is overestimated because of the huge numbers of undiagnosed cases wandering around". Alright cool, time to cram 34,000 people into Fenway. Right?!?! What could go wrong?!?!?! To expand your point, what could go wrong as a half million fans, players, vendors, team and ballpark staffs, media, military and musicians cram into the upcoming 15 opening day games in 15 major population centers across the nation?!?!?! (not to mention followed by the crowds at dozens of minor league season openers In smaller towns). Curiosity had me check out the attendees of some of last year’s games. The stands were chock full of gray haired fanatics, exactly the target of covid-19. What could go wrong!?!?!!? As an aside, the Cato opinion nowhere tracks deaths during the past few months from heart disease, cancer, pneumonia, diabetes or just plain old age of having contracted covid-2019 prior to death ... simply because there was no testing done. While it may hopefully work out that the threat of death and/or actual percentage of deaths are less than feared by WHO, it is totally irresponsible at this point to discourage taking steps to prevent its spread and whatever number of deaths it may bring. I hope MLB will be more cautious than Cato.[/b] I read the article as the Cato Doctor questioning the death rates projected by WHO because they were inclusive of the most high risk group (60+ with other risk factors). If the high risk factor "fans" don't attend games, for example then the contagion will have a much lower desk rate (and possibly a lower infection rate). WHO was projecting, in the authors mind a worse case scenario. Rest homes are already at defcon 4. Nobody had to "tell them" to do so. It was common. sense. MLB has no control with respect to who turns in a ticket stub. At risk seniors, with any common sense, should pass on going to games so it would seem. MLB is in a tricky situation. I suspect they will attempt to err on the side of caution and cancel games early on. Of course if they were really concerned they would cancel the Grapefruit and Cactus League games where the overwhelming attendees are seniors.
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Post by p23w on Mar 10, 2020 7:34:03 GMT -5
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Post by p23w on Mar 9, 2020 19:46:05 GMT -5
Just speculating, but it would seem that "fans" should make decisions based on their own risk factors. The business may get some pressure from the players union, or not. I think MLB will act in lock step regarding whether to play games, or not. Could be an interesting year, games and standings wise. Sort of an inverse of 1981 and 1994. It may sound perverted but this might work in favor of the Sox having a post season. I do wonder if a vaccine is found in what would amount to be "record" time if players would be given the antidote very early on..... right after the politicians.
PS I think it's a hoot that you guys have ads for respirators on your website.
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Post by p23w on Mar 9, 2020 11:46:16 GMT -5
I think we have to be prepared for any eventuality, right up to and including the cancellation of games. While the death rate from COVID-19 is still quite low, it is nonetheless an order of magnitude greater than for the flu. That and the latency - the time it takes for the symptoms to appear if they even do - means that there can be asymptomatic carriers who can infect 2 to 3 people each on average. ITA. From what I have been told people with compromised immune systems are at the most risk. Older people and children fit that profile. The US Public Health system has been short-funded for years so every attempt will be made to slow this thing down as capacity is rebuilt. That may very well lead to empty stadiums - no spectators and perhaps no players. There are hundreds of homeopathic formulas for hand sanitizers online. There are also numerous suggestions on how to make "masks". Not worried about the capacity to access basic prevention. Empty stadiums..... no players? Hard to fathom. More hard science is needed before we go batsh*t paranoid. Given the marketplace and profit potential I cannot help but believe that big Pharma is working overtime to find answers.
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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 18:07:24 GMT -5
Thanks for the roster move updates. Got the "feeling" that this team is somewhat better prepared at this point in time, when compared to last year.
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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 18:00:00 GMT -5
Tough attitude here. Did you ever have cause to say this to Pedroia? Probably not. BTW, Downs miscues took place on the "dirt", the "lawn" in Northport was short and very hard, hope you take better care of yours. I bet his hat was slightly askew too Don't you just hate when they do that. Deserves prison time imo Felony time or misdemeanor... what da' ya' think? as an aside my lawn stinks. Things have gone awry since my landscaper brother moved out. Sad. Probably the worst lawn on the block It's just about weed and feed time.... don't forget to aerate.
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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 8:37:36 GMT -5
Bend at the knees between innings and get off my lawn Jeter Downs!!!!! Tough attitude here. Did you ever have cause to say this to Pedroia? Probably not. BTW, Downs miscues took place on the "dirt", the "lawn" in Northport was short and very hard, hope you take better care of yours.
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Post by p23w on Mar 8, 2020 8:33:42 GMT -5
Uhhh am I missing something here? He’s not supposed to be ready right now by any stretch of imagination. His ETA is really until late 2021 to begin with I believe... I don't have your crystal ball when it come to when Downs is "supposed" to be ready. All I can tell you is that he is in no way ready to contribute now. I hope your projection is correct, but I will reserve judgement on that projection until next year. I remain thoroughly unimpressed regarding Downs at present.
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Post by p23w on Mar 7, 2020 22:30:15 GMT -5
Todays game. ERod OK, he will be alright. Barnes still has the great curveball, poor command of his fastball and still get rattled when close pitches don't go his way. Durran has a long way to go. Good speed, bad D. Not impressed. Downs K'd twice. Tried to take first on a called 3rd strike and missed another 3rd strike badly. Not impressed. Wong K'd, as well. Chavis reminds me somewhat of Shea Hillenbrand. He makes contact, and when he squares it the ball flies. Missed a home run bye about 4-6 inches. I'm OK with Chavis. Roenicke pulled a really nice double steal (2nd and home), Plawecki showed some hutzpah and athleticism behind the plate. The team played hard, but not we'll. New Braves facility is LOUD (obnoxiously so) otherwise a nice addition to the Grapefruit League. Bloom has his work cut out for him. This team will not make the playoffs in 2020, and probably miss out in 2021 as well. Really too bad. Two years ago I thought this team would be a force to be reckoned with through 2025. Now my enthusiasm is muted and mentally I am in rebuild mode. It's not all good, but it is the game I love, so there's that.[/quote ]I'm planning to buy a lottery ticket tonight. Which numbers should I choose? So Wong strikes out. Also had a hit. So Jeter had a few Ks too. This is one game. I would hesitate to make predictions based upon this or any other ST games. Sorry to hear about your addiction, can't help you. When th ball clangs off the heal of your glove and another slips out of the webbing and you don't bend at the knees to field these soft toss ground balls between innings you are not ready for prime time. Downs is not ready by any stretch right now.
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Post by p23w on Mar 7, 2020 22:29:46 GMT -5
Todays game. ERod OK, he will be alright. Barnes still has the great curveball, poor command of his fastball and still get rattled when close pitches don't go his way. Durran has a long way to go. Good speed, bad D. Not impressed. Downs K'd twice. Tried to take first on a called 3rd strike and missed another 3rd strike badly. Not impressed. Wong K'd, as well. Chavis reminds me somewhat of Shea Hillenbrand. He makes contact, and when he squares it the ball flies. Missed a home run bye about 4-6 inches. I'm OK with Chavis. Roenicke pulled a really nice double steal (2nd and home), Plawecki showed some hutzpah and athleticism behind the plate. The team played hard, but not we'll. New Braves facility is LOUD (obnoxiously so) otherwise a nice addition to the Grapefruit League. Bloom has his work cut out for him. This team will not make the playoffs in 2020, and probably miss out in 2021 as well. Really too bad. Two years ago I thought this team would be a force to be reckoned with through 2025. Now my enthusiasm is muted and mentally I am in rebuild mode. It's not all good, but it is the game I love, so there's that.[/quote ]I'm planning to buy a lottery ticket tonight. Which numbers should I choose? So Wong strikes out. Also had a hit. So Jeter had a few Ks too. This is one game. I would hesitate to make predictions based upon this or any other ST games. Sorry to hear about your addiction, can't help you. When th ball clangs off the heal of your glove and another slips out of the webbing and you don't bend at the knees to field these soft toss ground balls between innings you are not ready for prime time. Downs is not ready by any stretch right now.
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Post by p23w on Mar 7, 2020 7:59:35 GMT -5
Todays game. ERod OK, he will be alright. Barnes still has the great curveball, poor command of his fastball and still get rattled when close pitches don't go his way. Durran has a long way to go. Good speed, bad D. Not impressed. Downs K'd twice. Tried to take first on a called 3rd strike and missed another 3rd strike badly. Not impressed. Wong K'd, as well. Chavis reminds me somewhat of Shea Hillenbrand. He makes contact, and when he squares it the ball flies. Missed a home run bye about 4-6 inches. I'm OK with Chavis. Roenicke pulled a really nice double steal (2nd and home), Plawecki showed some hutzpah and athleticism behind the plate. The team played hard, but not we'll. New Braves facility is LOUD (obnoxiously so) otherwise a nice addition to the Grapefruit League. Bloom has his work cut out for him. This team will not make the playoffs in 2020, and probably miss out in 2021 as well. Really too bad. Two years ago I thought this team would be a force to be reckoned with through 2025. Now my enthusiasm is muted and mentally I am in rebuild mode. It's not all good, but it is the game I love, so there's that. What are you talking about? How many regulars were on the field today? they are going to be sloppy because it is spring training. I don't base these games on the actual season because most, if not all, the position players will be in the minors come the regular season. I watched a little of the game today and was disgusted with the giggling and carrying on of the ESPN announcers. They didn't even pay attention to who was batting or anything pertinent to an actual game. We don't have to hear all the insiders stuff that they kept babbling about. We heard more about Freddie Freemans off field activities because he was miked up and that is all we heard. i turned it off after 2 innings. One reason NOT to watch baseball on TV are the announcers (by and large). Given the talent on this team, eyeballing the mid-late Spring training games is a valuable way to identify who (and when) some of the farm hands will be ready to/for harvest. Since WE are in a rebuild mode, I was anxious to witness for myself what lay ahead. I was not impressed. FTR, the Braves started their "A" team. I was thoroughly unimpressed by them as well. The exception being their Donaldson replacement and top prospect Riley. Big solid boy. Took our bullpen deep. ERod had him covered no sweat.
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Post by p23w on Mar 6, 2020 18:32:01 GMT -5
Todays game. ERod OK, he will be alright. Barnes still has the great curveball, poor command of his fastball and still get rattled when close pitches don't go his way. Durran has a long way to go. Good speed, bad D. Not impressed. Downs K'd twice. Tried to take first on a called 3rd strike and missed another 3rd strike badly. Not impressed. Wong K'd, as well. Chavis reminds me somewhat of Shea Hillenbrand. He makes contact, and when he squares it the ball flies. Missed a home run bye about 4-6 inches. I'm OK with Chavis. Roenicke pulled a really nice double steal (2nd and home), Plawecki showed some hutzpah and athleticism behind the plate. The team played hard, but not we'll. New Braves facility is LOUD (obnoxiously so) otherwise a nice addition to the Grapefruit League. Bloom has his work cut out for him. This team will not make the playoffs in 2020, and probably miss out in 2021 as well. Really too bad. Two years ago I thought this team would be a force to be reckoned with through 2025. Now my enthusiasm is muted and mentally I am in rebuild mode. It's not all good, but it is the game I love, so there's that.
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Post by p23w on Mar 5, 2020 19:31:25 GMT -5
Ok, ok, ok. Bottom line what is the over/under in IP for Sale this year. We're looking at a .500 team (at best) if he can't go 150IP.
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Post by p23w on Mar 3, 2020 17:44:47 GMT -5
This is like FTHW's suggestion that he can make up for the loss of doubles and homers to left field in Fenway by just hitting a bunch of singles up the middle, and, uh... I'm skeptical of that. Doubles.Betts will take a hit leaving Fenway, but I don't think you can just take his past batted ball profile and project it forward unchanged. Betts didn't just happen to have the perfect batted ball profile for Fenway, it was an intentional thing. Badda-bing, badda-boom. Give this man a ceegar.
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