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danr
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Post by danr on May 30, 2015 10:27:11 GMT -5
I think the invective here against Farrell and Breslow about last night's game is somewhat over the top. Last night's game was lost because of Ogando who has been a good RP, not because of Breslow or any other move that Farrell made. Yes, Breslow gave up a hit that scored the second run counted against Ogando, but the situation was created by Ogando and no RP can be expected to be perfect, especially in that kind of situation.
Yes, Breslow should not have been brought back the next inning but that move had no effect on the outcome of the game since the Sox didn't score any more runs.
Unless the hitting improves no manager could make this team successful.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 30, 2015 10:14:01 GMT -5
It is too much data to put here, but look at the pitching stats on this site and sort them by innings pitched and then compare Owens and Rodriguez. The similarity of their records is remarkable with one notable exception - walks.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 29, 2015 17:29:00 GMT -5
Apparently the forecast for tonight isn't great, which could be why they're still operating with a short bench - if they're rained out, they'll play two tomorrow and can bring up a bench player as the 26th guy, then decide who to send back down Sunday. It's not supposed to rain tonight until after 10 PM. However, tomorrow looks bad all day into the evening.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 28, 2015 17:40:44 GMT -5
Hopefully not another Abe Alvarez situation. But I have high hopes. Alvarez stock in trade was slow stuff. He was a classic junk-ball pitcher. Rodriguez is just about as far from that as you can get. Alvarez also had an eyesight problem that caused him to wear his cap almost sidewise. He was very strange-looking on the mound. He was very well-liked but didn't have the stuff to stay in the majors.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 28, 2015 17:00:07 GMT -5
How can they recall Ross? He was just optioned to Pawtucket on the 23rd.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 27, 2015 18:30:43 GMT -5
Carlos Peguero Minors: 3223 ABs, 1106 Ks, 167 HRs, .274/.336/.512/.848
MLB: 284 ABs, 125 Ks, 13 HRs, .194/.263/.387/.630
Hit 30 HRs at Omaha AAA iin 2014.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 27, 2015 14:47:24 GMT -5
This probably is just coincidental but Bogaerts hit well in the 5th spot in the lineup and the Red Sox won a couple of games, but stopped hitting when he was moved back down and the Red Sox stopped winning.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 16:29:26 GMT -5
I didn't see the game but I followed it on the radio and with Gameday. It seemed to me that Kelly tried to throw too hard once again. He can hit some high numbers but those balls get hit back at him. He has been more effective throwing his FB around 95 and mixing it well with his other pitches. Of course, once again his command wasn't too good. I think his talent is so exceptional that he is worth sending out there regularly for a while yet. If he gets things in sync he is the best pitcher the Sox have. His command was fine. He only walked one batter and wasn't missing the catcher's glove by much. He wasn't missing bats, but I think since Willis took over, he has gotten Kelly to change back into more of a pitch to contact pitcher. And he was doing exactly that. I depended on the radio descriptions for what I wrote about his command. They were saying he was not getting his pitches down like he needs to do, especially his FB.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:18:52 GMT -5
Hanley's D unifies the sabremetric and traditional scouting parties. It even sounds bad on the radio.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:17:32 GMT -5
I didn't see the game but I followed it on the radio and with Gameday. It seemed to me that Kelly tried to throw too hard once again. He can hit some high numbers but those balls get hit back at him. He has been more effective throwing his FB around 95 and mixing it well with his other pitches. Of course, once again his command wasn't too good. I think his talent is so exceptional that he is worth sending out there regularly for a while yet. If he gets things in sync he is the best pitcher the Sox have.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:11:21 GMT -5
I meant to add that I don't think that JBJ has a long term future with the Sox. I think he will be part of a package trade deal either at the deadline or in the off season. He probably needs to be with a team that will allow him to play and not hit until he learns to hit. I think he will learn to hit if he gets that chance in the majors. I don't think he is going to learn in the minors and the Sox won't play him if he doesn't hit.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 26, 2015 14:06:51 GMT -5
I think that Hanley's defense makes no difference in how the Sox finish this year. It might make a difference in the playoffs. However, this team is not the team many of us thought it was going to be. Before ST I thought it was an 86-win team. I upped that to 91 based on my theory that the Sox could solve a pitching problem or two with trades at mid season. I never anticipated the hitting problem.
Napoli seems to be coming around but it isn't going to be enough unless there is better hitting throughout the lineup. There still is a chance a powerhouse offense will develop but the odds are lengthening. Without that this team probably doesn't make the post season regardless of Hanley's D.
I don't think it is a problem that needs to be addressed this year. As pointed out by others, there is a reasonable chance he could be the 1B or the DH next year.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 25, 2015 14:46:46 GMT -5
Gameday shows Barnes hitting 98 in his last two pitches in the 3rd. I don't recall him throwing that hard previously.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 25, 2015 13:26:37 GMT -5
I don't think what you wrote conflicted with what I wrote. Four RPs developed over the past 15 years is not a sterling record, particularly when two of them flamed out - although I don't know what happened to Delcarmen. Just when he was reaching his peak years he went into decline. I think the Sox have made a significant error in treating the BP as fungible. Teams with really good BPs don't do that. Yes, there always is some turnover. Many RPs have up and down careers. However, the really good ones don't. The Sox just haven't had many really good ones in a while. The pen right now is the best it has been in a couple of years, but it could be better. Eh, the Red Sox have developed three of the top 30 relievers in fWAR since 2012, so it's not like they haven't been pulling their weight. I could keep going with the solid bullpen arms who are alums of this system-- think Josh Fields, Alex Wilson, Chris Martin, Ryan Pressly, Hunter Strickland, etc. I wouldn't say that they have an especially poor track record of developing relievers. I also think you're grossly overestimating the number of consistently elite relief pitchers in the majors. There are only four relievers who have put up a combined 6+ fWAR from 2012-2014, for instance. Take a look at the fWAR reliever leaderboard from 2011-- Of the top ten, you have four guys who basically aren't in the league anymore (Sean Marshall, John Axford, Joel Hanrahan, Mike Adams), and only one of those is older than 33, so it's not purely because of age. Finally, as was mentioned above, the elite Royals bullpen consists of a couple reclamation projects, a couple converted starters, and Greg Holland. They built an elite bullpen precisely by treating it as fungible and finding reclamation projects like Wade Davis and Luke Hochevar. The best bullpen in the league this year, the Dodgers' bullpen, have Kenley Jansen and a bunch of cheap pickups. This is a terrific example of how to win an argument with a reasoned approach. I concede. I concluded that before I read your examples. I found an MLB piece about a month ago listing the top ten bullpens. And after going through each of them, it was obvious you were right. I still am not comfortable with WAR as a rating for pitchers, but even if it isn't used, the facts don't change, just perhaps the ratings of various pitchers. I read fangraph's long pieces about WAR and replacement level and they point out that WAR for pitchers is a little dicey and still undergoing refinement. In fact, they are supposed to have a new explanation sometime soon. The problem that I see is that it doesn't take into consideration the situations in which relief pitchers are used. There should be some kind of weighting for the situation and the result achieved. For example, coming into a game with no one on base and giving up a couple of hits but no runs is statistically worse than coming into a game with the bases loaded and giving up just one hit, but the result is much worse in the bases loaded situation. And I don't think the averaging out approach works because different situations often require different kinds of pitchers. For example, a pitch-to-contact RP may be really good for bases empty, multiple innings use, but not for a bases-loaded no outs situation. So it is awfully complicated to try to do a general rating of pitchers and I am not sure it is possible to do just one.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 18:23:41 GMT -5
It long has been the Red Sox philosophy to try to develop young pitchers first as starters. It hasn't meant that they saw every pitcher as a starter but that they believed it helped pitchers develop better stuff and better command. However, what it hasn't done is develop very many relievers. It may be in this age of intense specialization that being a really good reliever requires as much development as being a really good starter. Eh, I don't know about that. Papelbon, Bard, Tazawa, and Manny Delcarmen all started their careers as starters and became very good-to-better relievers, and guys like Barnes, Workman, Escobar may still turn out to be bullpen weapons. It may well be the case that their development strategy is not ideal for churning out relievers, but I think it's had some success over the years. I don't think what you wrote conflicted with what I wrote. Four RPs developed over the past 15 years is not a sterling record, particularly when two of them flamed out - although I don't know what happened to Delcarmen. Just when he was reaching his peak years he went into decline. I think the Sox have made a significant error in treating the BP as fungible. Teams with really good BPs don't do that. Yes, there always is some turnover. Many RPs have up and down careers. However, the really good ones don't. The Sox just haven't had many really good ones in a while. The pen right now is the best it has been in a couple of years, but it could be better. In theory I agree that SPs are worth far more than RPs. However, SPs now average about six innings a game. Unless a team has a huge offense, those last three innings are critical to success. So even though they don't pitch as many innings, and what they pitch is divided among six or seven pitchers, RPs are critical to the success of a team. And they just can't be retreads and average pitchers. For the team to be successful, the BP must be exceptional.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 12:38:51 GMT -5
If Sandoval is that unavailable then he should be DL'd as well. Not if he'll be back in the next few days. You're better off downgrading the bench for a few games than downgrading your starter for a couple weeks. If the post after yours is correct and Sandoval is ready to go, then I agree with you. But that wasn't the report I read. If he is unavailable then it means he probably won't be playing for a few more days at least and then putting him on the DL would not mean him missing more than another week. We'll see.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 12:30:48 GMT -5
Is the game delayed? I can't get MLB gameday to come up nor can I get WEEI's broadcast. Anyone else having this problem?
Nevermind, both just came up.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 12:28:37 GMT -5
If Sandoval is that unavailable then he should be DL'd as well.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 10:12:49 GMT -5
I admit to being a Wright doubter and that I might have been wrong. I say might because I still think his knuckleball looks far more hittable than did Wakefield's.
The differences between the two seem to be that Wakefield's was slower and moved more - and more unpredictably - and that Wright has a respectable, mid 80s fastball that he can use to keep batters from zoning in completely on the knuckleball. Wright seems to have learned how to use his pitches in the right combinations and with good control he has become a pretty decent pitcher.
I'll be very happy to be completely wrong about him.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 24, 2015 10:04:19 GMT -5
It long has been the Red Sox philosophy to try to develop young pitchers first as starters. It hasn't meant that they saw every pitcher as a starter but that they believed it helped pitchers develop better stuff and better command.
However, what it hasn't done is develop very many relievers. It may be in this age of intense specialization that being a really good reliever requires as much development as being a really good starter.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on May 23, 2015 13:23:55 GMT -5
I know very little about Witte, but I have looked at his stats. This is only his third year in the system and only his second full season. So, unlike many players old for their levels, he hasn't exactly been bouncing around the low minors. My hackles raise a little when conclusions are made about a player based simply on his age or his height or his weight. Players should be judged on their skills, talent and potential. What do we know about this player?
He didn't hit very well his first year, but he certainly did last year and he is hitting now about the same as he did in Greenville. His HR and 2B rates are about the same. He is hitting better than any other 1B in the system. There are some comments about defensive weakness but no real scouting report on either his defense, or his offense.
There certainly are many examples of players who briefly rake before their weaknesses are discovered, and sometimes those weaknesses aren't discovered until AAA or the majors. But anyone who hits at this rate and maintains it should get some attention. It will be interesting to see if he still is at this level in a month or two.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 23, 2015 12:04:47 GMT -5
It does seem that people here are more panicky and emotional now than in the past. No doubt a couple of years of deflated expectations is a big cause of that. However, a game like last night's is not one to get terribly upset about. Very strange things happened that are not likely to recur and some players just had bad nights, which all players do from time to time.
I guess we have discovered that Sandoval is a very good defensive 3B and Holt is not. That really is no great surprise. Despite his average against LHPs, the team probably is better off with him in the lineup as much as possible. But we also have discovered that Swihart has a very good arm and 9 times out of 10 Trout is out.
Blowout games occur several times a season and should just be shrugged off. It is harder to get over the 2-1 and 3-1 losses.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 22, 2015 11:36:21 GMT -5
There is very little a manager can do about players, especially "star" players who aren't hitting. And the fact the Sox are not hitting is the primary reason for the team's poor performance. The players know what's wrong. They admit they have been pressing and not doing the things they should, like moving runners over, etc.
There really are only two things that can be done by management in a situation like this. Option one is they can wait it out because the odds are good that most of the good hitters will hit eventually. It has always been the case in baseball that hitters are streaky. Batting averages are not the result of regularly hitting for the average. They are the result of streaks of very hot hitting and streaks of cold hitting. You can check the daily records of hitters and almost always you will see games of multiple hits and games of no hits. What you won't see are long strings of games with hits about the player's average every game. What has happened is that the whole team is in a cold streak. Most of the players will come out of it. Maybe not all of them.
Option two is that the personnel can be changed. I suspect that is about to happen in the outfield. Castillo probably will be with the team and starting very soon. Victorino is a really good player when he plays, but like last night when he should have played, he couldn't. He has to be replaced. Something clearly is wrong with Hanley. That has to be dealt with, but I have no idea what the right thing is to do. The outfield experiment with him really isn't working very well.
There is no replacement for Napoli in-house but management has to be thinking seriously about acquiring one. Sandoval has to be told to stop hitting righthanded, or benched against lefthanded pitchers, which is a real waste of his salary.
I think they have to wait on Ortiz. It is too early to tell if he is done, but the thought probably is beginning. I think Betts has a big BABIP problem that will resolve itself before long. Bogaerts is OK. He hasn't burst into stardom but he is a much better player than he was a year ago. I think his concentration on improving his fielding probably has taken away from his hitting, but by major league shortstop standards his hitting isn't bad. I think they either have to play JBJ or send him down. Nava cannot be a regular, even a platoon regular.
I suspect that option two is more likely to be the course management follows if things do not improve significantly very soon and, who knows, there might be a bigger shakeup than we can imagine.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 20, 2015 15:55:50 GMT -5
I think JBJ's defense is so sensational that he must stay with the team. If he doesn't hit at all, he will do things as a defensive replacement that will save games.
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danr
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Post by danr on May 20, 2015 15:24:06 GMT -5
5/20: Tim Britton ?@timbritton 2m2 minutes ago Red Sox v. Klein: Betts CF, Pedroia 2B, Ortiz DH, Ramirez LF, Napoli 1B, Nava RF, Holt 3B, Bogaerts SS, Swihart C, Kelly RHP --- I wonder what everyone will have to say about RF. This reminds me of when they played Craig regularly for a number of games before cutting him. Nava has to show something soon - very soon. Castillo is coming up in a few days and somebody will have to be cut.
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