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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 30, 2023 15:23:49 GMT -5
He's carried a 45 hit tool his entire minor league career. His MILB career stat line. .320/.407/.477 In 2022 when he was still a prospect, pipeline had a 55 grade on the hit tool. He’s 22 (at least for another week)
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 30, 2023 14:53:30 GMT -5
Sox could add one of Montgomery/Snell and still stay under the tax line. If they chose to do so.
I’m wondering if this makes the need for adding a guy like Teoscar Hernandez much smaller. They can easily roll out 4-5 RH bats every night. If Grissom hits, this lineup is well balanced.
Very interested to see how this kid develops. It certainly looks like he’s a decent bet to hit above average in the bigs. I know the defense hasn’t been great, and that’s a major concern on this team. But given his age is it plausible he could at the very least be marginally better than what we had at 2nd last year? Idk. I’d love to see what the scouting reports are projecting his defense. Maybe the curious case of Duran turning into an average defensive center fielder has my glass half full.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 30, 2023 14:39:02 GMT -5
One also wonders if Grissom would make a good corner outfielder if he grows into that power? Probably getting way ahead of myself. Still, we have something to talk about now. Finally.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 30, 2023 14:37:22 GMT -5
This is a good deal, especially if the Sox hit on Grissom, who is so young and has done nothing but hit. The hope in Atlanta was once this dude grew into some power he would be an absolute beast. This guy is heading into his age 23 season, with tons of control. I'm very intrigued by his upside.
I will miss Chris Sale, I was really rooting for him to have a healthy year, and I still will in Atlanta. Maybe the Sox have more faith in getting Giolito right, than Sale staying healthy for a full season. You can only handle so many question marks in a rotation, which makes this senseless if they don't go out and add another pitcher better than Giolito.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 29, 2023 13:03:01 GMT -5
Wonder what that hit chart looks like at Yankee stadmium.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 29, 2023 12:13:04 GMT -5
The thing is, is that decline, much like progress isn't linear. Even if he's declining what is he declning from? he could easily still be better than he was last year for the next 4 years, espeically in Fenway. But I think they can get a deal done for 3 years, maybe he gets 4th year option.
Could be a 4th year team option with a buyout, but I actually like the ideal of a player option that is vesting via performance.
This may be unpopular, but hypothetically meeting in the middle could be 4 years but with a lower AAV. It's weird, a few years ago it seemed shorter term deals with higher AAV was all the rage, now there seems to be a shift towards lower AAV. Although, I think there's room for both in this world, and Teoscar seems like the kind of guy you go for a shorter years on. But I do like the concept of an option year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 29, 2023 10:09:46 GMT -5
Was there something in the water in the South Side of Chicago last year: HR per 9 allowed for individual seasons, all pitchers with at least 150 innings going back to 1900 (courtesy of Fangraphs) 2.20 - 2000 Jose Lima 2.16 - 2023 Lance Lynn 2.15 - 2018 Dylan Bundy 2.08 - 2017 Ariel Miranda 2.08 - 2011 Bronson Arroyo 2.01 - 1999 Jeff Fassero 2.00 -2019 Yusei Kikuchi 2.00 - 2023 Lucas Giolito 1.99 - 2017 Ian Kennedy 1.99 - 2001 Dave Mlicki Lucas Giolito last year gave up 10+ home runs for three different MLB teams - 20 CWS, 10 LAA, 10 CLE (41 total). I may be wrong, but I don’t believe that has ever happened before in a single season. His HR rate% practically doubled once he left CHX. His season was a strange one, for the first 2/3 he looked like he returned to his 2019-2021 form, then he just completely fell apart. One has to wonder if what was wrong with him is completely fixable.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 28, 2023 9:27:03 GMT -5
Knowing what we know about Yamamoto and Ohtani going to LA, one could only imagine what type of contract it would have takent to get Ohtani/Yamamoto to Boston.
Can't really get that mad about it at this point.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 28, 2023 8:05:01 GMT -5
I really don't buy the narrative that they were "outbid" for Lugo. If Lugo was their number 1 priority I think they could have competed with KC. Lugo was probably their plan e, or plan F, and even if Yamamoto was plan a then BCD is still out there. If anything the fact that they didn't make a serious run at Lugo is evidence that they have their eyes set on something bigger.......Or not, I'm waiting until February to get my pitch fork out.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 27, 2023 14:04:32 GMT -5
I’m not saying it is the same people, but we got the Sox getting dinged for not spending AND getting donged for pursuing one of the more logical FA options. If you said “trade Verdugo for Teoscar and a bunch of prospects,” I’d have jumped at it. You want to move Masa to DH, so Turner walks. Who is the big righty? Story? You need a RH hitter. Who are the options out there? People seem to have a lot of faith in the Duran, Rafaela, Abreu mix. I love Duran, and I hope the others are good, but that is a pretty unsettled look. I think it is impossible to imagine Teoscar hitting under 20-25 HRs, driving in at least 85. In a sense, this mess is because Masa can’t field. Teoscar in OF, then sliding to DH for years 3-4 of a 4 year deal would be similar to late JDM or Turner. But Masa gums up DH and forces them to find another OF. Think I’m more baffled by the people that were very okay with singing someone who never played in the MLB $18 million per year for 5 years who many did need a 4th OF and seems to be more a poor offensive DH and is now 30 But are extremely against a better player and a better fit for less time Yeah of course I’d like to sign Hernandez to a 2 year deal worth $30 million as much as I would have liked Ohtani at $250 million. But that’s just not realistically where the market is for either of these guys The solutions can’t just be to not participate of the upper half of the free agent market anymore. And when I say participate I mean probably making offers that aren’t exactly comfortable to make If the cup is half empty, it can be easy to discount how much better he may be at Fenway. Doesn't have to great to be worth $15-$18 million a year. I can see him putting up .800 OPS while here and should be able to play a better left field than Yoshida. I'd easily go 3 with him, I'm just wondering if in todays world 4 is the term that lands him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 27, 2023 12:29:43 GMT -5
I'm starting to come around to thinking he can really hit at Fenway, play him in LF, there's your RHB and move Yoshida to DH. 4/67 get it done.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 27, 2023 11:16:45 GMT -5
I think the Cody Bellinger contract predictions have the capacity to be some of the furthest off prediction.
The uncertainty and QO is likely surpressing his market. He's easily that guy I'd give a short term deal to, see if he can duplicate things and enter the market again in a year or two while he's still young.
But why waste a pick for a year or two? to make it worth it to a team, they need to believe his resurrection is at least mostly real and he can sustain it for the next several years.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 27, 2023 8:40:35 GMT -5
Setting aside verbiage, I’m not really sure what could be expected this off reason. Ohtani was a non-starter. Mortgaging the system for a year of Soto would be silly. YY took what seems like the best offer. So the big prizes are out for reasons that can’t really be laid at the FO’s doorstep. But do folks want an overpay on, say, Bellinger? I don’t. On Snell. I might… but I am not mad about passing. Josh Hader? Why? Those are probably the best guys left. Montgomery, Giolito, Stroman? Maybe it feels good to spend, but I don’t think it makes them serious next year, and paying those guys 3 years from now won’t feel nearly as good. Maybe they blew it from a PR standpoint, but this off season was never going to be great. They are in a hole, and I don’t think this FA class offers a way out. They need to operate with 2025 in mind. By all reports we were in on Lugo before missing out to him to, of all teams, KC. I agree we should be operating with 2025 in mind, but I see no signs the FO has any semblance of a plan even resembling that. Look at the Mets. Stearns came in this off-season and has brought on board through FA and Trade a slew of flappable assets and reclamation projects with upside. The fanbase may not like it as much as their previous strategy, but at least it is one. What is Breslow aiming for? What are we even doing? It's full throttle in first gear. Did we really lose him out to KC? I don't believe Breslow, or even any well seasoned GM/POBO goes into an offseason with a few guys in mind and it's them or bust. Now if Lugo was part of their A plan, and they wanted him and Yama or something then I'd be more inclined to say something along the lines that they "missed out" on him. Teams, even teams that sign free agents, talk to a lot of different players, knowing that players they're interested in could sign elsewhere and they needs plans for many different permutations of the future. For all we know the Sox most desired offseason was Teoscar/Giolito/Montgomery. That offseason is still there for the taking. Yamamoto signing with LA turned me a little cynical, but I think I'm starting to come back around to the camp of "well lets see how the entire offseason plays out"
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 26, 2023 14:59:43 GMT -5
If the Sox want to flex their "financial muscle" in a way that's in line with their unwillingness to go long term, then Giolito is a guy they can overpay in AAV to get a short term deal (2 years). If you are looking to reset the cap every 2-3 years then the money is just money.
If he's a guy that Baily/Breslow think they can get right, it could end up being a good move. But that's one guy, with a maybe.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 26, 2023 11:59:57 GMT -5
One thing I've changed my stance on a lot in recent years, partially due to insight here and on the podcasts is how high/low a trade value can really go.
Another team isn't look at a guys stat line and thinking "OMG this guy is really good" without knowing their warts, knowing what has gone wrong, could go wrong, or what lies beneath. Sure, Durans value might be at an all time high, it could also be at a low too.
With that said, I'm not against trading Duran, as I'm not against trading anyone for the right price, but trading away from our outfield depth does concern me a little. While we have talent, there's also a lot of question marks all around. I don't think Duran is going to get back in return what some think he may. You're certainly not getting a young cost controlled ACE for him, now could he be the secondary piece in such a trade for a team that is high on him? absolutey.
With that said, It would certainly increase his value (particularly to the 2023 team) if he could play second base as good as he became in the outfield last year. In todays game, where it's going, it wouldn't surprise me if he went that route, but on the other hand if there was a real chance of that happening you would think you would hear some chatter about it by now. Perhaps that ship has sailed on him playing the infield.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 23, 2023 18:40:26 GMT -5
Paxton looked pretty good before he slowed down, I figured fatigue was the cause. It’s perfectly plausible to assume with a second full season back he could very well put up the type of numbers we all wanted from that second tier pitcher
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 23, 2023 17:09:46 GMT -5
Sasaki is the guy I really want. I hope he’s posted as a full free agent (because it gives us a better shot at him) and I hope we spend whatever it takes to land him. He’ll line up well with our window, too. Well, he checks the first box, at 6'2", 187# -- still only 22, so could fill in another 10-15# of girth. Still, you could cut and paste your post into a MFY, NYM, SFG, LAA, TOR, or virtually any team's fan chat board. The competition is not going to be any less fierce. Ultimately though, pinning your hopes to the Sox landing the shiniest free agent object isn't any less Sysiphean than it's ever been. Absent a few exceptions, we always lost out to MFY in the past (just ask Theo's mythical hotel room chair or Mark Teixeira's wife) and now you can add LAD and NYM to the clubs who have cut the line in front of us. The money is there but the prestige is ebbing. The answer, of course, is to build a winner from your farm so that you can at least guarantee consistent playoff runs. Until then, we may need to overpay a Montgomery, Giolito, Hader, Stephenson, etc., to boost what the farm can give us in the short term. With any luck, by the time Sasaki is ready to post, we'll have had a couple grabs at the brass ring and become a much more obvious finalist for him and others like him. What are the odds he’s posted before 25? Wasn’t Ohtani? I know he asked to be posted this year, so perhaps he wants to push to start his MLB career as soon as he can. If he’s subjected to IFA rules that takes away a lot of advantages the LA/NY, they’re in line to lose pool money. Teams can trade for more though
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 23, 2023 12:56:55 GMT -5
Hernandez was a guy who I wanted almost a year ago, and then I was talked out of it here by you guys, and I’m not having an easy time talking myself back into it at all.
I don’t hate it I guess, but I’d probably like it a heck of a lot more if he could play at least an average right field at Fenway. I don’t believe he can. So is Yoshida going to move to DH? And Teoscar/Duran/O’Neil patrol the outfield? With Abreu moving around? There’s potential there, but that doesn’t exactly get me excited either.
Honestly, there doesn’t really seem to be any fits in free agency for this team, aside from pitching which is odd considering how bad they were last year.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 13:13:25 GMT -5
If the Red Sox don’t spend up to this cbt line they deserve to be crucified by fans and the media , no excuse , field a competitive team even though you think you have no chance If they can't put together a team that has a decent shot of contending for the playoffs there's certainly no point in going over the CBT, maybe they can use some of the space they have to start extending younger talent now. It might be the only talent they get this year. I shoulnd't be so cyncical, I'm sure they will make a move or two at some point. Don't teams who exceed the luxury tax limit loss IFA bonus pool money? or is that only after 3 years, or the higher thresholds? if so, aren't the Sox at an advantage to jump on a guy like Roki Sasaki in 2024/5 if he's posted next year? Unless the Sox plan on going Montgomery and Snell and really shouldn't be very hard at all to stay under the threshold. Something for me to google later if one of my good fellow sox fanatics can't answer this for me, but I will say this. The Sox should easily be able to go Montgomery/Giolito or Snell/Giolito and stay under the first threshold.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 13:06:13 GMT -5
I've had the same thoughts at 2:00am when I haven't picked up anyone at the bar yet. oh....my twenties. I wonder what Breslow and Co. think of Snell. I figure they either are bearish on him compared to other options, or if they think they can tinker with something and get those walk rates down. Here I am.....talking myself into Snell.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 10:23:30 GMT -5
George never had to live in an era with luxury tax thresholds and the penalties that one incurs for going over. He also didn't have ownership groups who could match his spending like the Mets and Dodgers of today.
In some parallel universe, people may know how he would have actually run a team in todays world.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 9:57:15 GMT -5
Dodgers can still spend more and be able to reset in 2025 if they wanted to.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 9:55:49 GMT -5
CBT penalties have continued to increase over the years because of overspending by certain teams. I can envision the Dodgers spending leading to another round of CBT penalties that punish the Red Sox when their next young core reaches extension time. Fair enough but also in 6 years the only person they'll have any money committed to is Rafi Devers so them having a relatively clean long term payroll outlook as of this moment leads me to believe that even with stiffer CBT penalties (which I agree is likely to happen) the Sox will be just fine. If I was a betting man, I would think it's a good bet that changes are coming in the next CBA centered around stiffer penalties for exceeding the Luxury tax threshold AND potentially close up loop holes on deffered money lowering AAV. With the former, I'd imagine it comes with a higher luxury tax threshold. Yes, we are going to penalize you more....but the threshold for which we do so is going up.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 8:24:20 GMT -5
I'd be fine with Montgomery/Giolito and a trade for a RHH second baseman (Polanco/Kim/Drury type). But I'm not getting my hopes up. I could even get behind an Imanaga and Giolito combo. Anxious to see what Bailey can do to improve things in house as well. I see a lot of posters bring up Gausman and he turned him back around in SF. He had an ERA approaching 6.00 the year before. I'm not sure how I feel about Imanaga, although admitedly I haven't been following his as closely as Yama up until now. But I thought I read he projects to be more of a #4 type pitcher, and I feel we have plenty of those, yes we need innings but we really needed a guy or two at the top of the rotation.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 22, 2023 8:16:58 GMT -5
This is pure conjecture, but it feels that Yamamoto to LA opposed to Yamamoto to NYY makes it easier on us to land Montgomery. I think LA would have gone hard after him if the Yankees signed Yamamoto. The Yankees could have hung their hats on letting Cole opt out and replacing a mid 30's ACE with a guy at the begining of his prime. They do this because they have more of a chance of resigning Soto, because I don't know how they resign Soto, pay Cole and bring in another elite pitcher and not go over the threshold for a 4th year.
The problem is, pretty much every other team looking for high end talent is going to be in on Montgomery, and his price tag, while not as high as Yamamotos is probably going to go up because he will be in more teams price range. I don't have any faith in this front office winning any kind of bidding war.
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