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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 15:26:36 GMT -5
Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation If Bloom has brought the "Ruthless Rays" approach to veteran players, then Verdugo is gone unless he agrees to a team (very) friendly deal. Probably no more than $15M-17M AAV x 4 years with a team option for a 5th. That's a guess based on last year's market and Verdugo's age and ability. He's 27 this year, so he's at or near his peak (27-29 depending on the player). My other guess is Verdugo can do better than that in the open market. The rest of the OFs for 2024-25 are mostly dreck, except for a guy named Soto. Sox may not have a ready replacement so will either have to make a trade or see if Rafaela can hit MLB pitching on the regular. Abreu is not a solution - he's an org guy with a ceiling of a 4th OF according to the scouts here. If they think Rafaela can handle MLB pitching at least enough, they may even pull a Mookie and put him in RF since his arm is probably a bit better than Duran's. The fan in me would like Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Verdugo in RF with Yoshida being the primary DH and spelling Duran/Rafaela (with Duran taking over CF on the days Yoshida plays LF and Rafaela needs a breather). Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Bloom takes that "See ya later veteran guy!" approach with a non-star but good player like Verdugo that the Rays have been so bold with the last 8+ years. Sadly - being a Duggie fan - I think this will bear out. He's exactly the kind of guy Tampa trades with a year to go or, at worst, lets walk. Even with the Sox larger payroll, I bet Mr. Bloom believes Rafaela or an acquisition (or Duvall for another year) can fill Verdugo's role more cheaply and the money can be spent elsewhere.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 15:23:08 GMT -5
Why do I feel like this series will have the Sox really, really regretting not sweeping the Giants when they had multiple chances to do so?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 15:17:05 GMT -5
Fangraphs has him as a 50 FV, same tier as Rafaela and Yorke. Compared to the Montgomery and Giolito deals this seems like a good price for the Rays but MMV on opinions on the prospects. Interesting. Even with equivalent overall future value, MLB has Manzardo as the #37 prospect in the league. I'm guessing Cleveland's internal evaluation is all that matters, but it doesn't hurt PR-wise to say they got the Rays #3 (according to Fangraphs) who's also the league #37. as opposed to, say, the Sox #4, Rafaela, who's the league #78s or the Sox #5, Yorke, who's the league #82. Manzardo does have a current 55 hit and projected future 70 by Fangraphs, which blows Yorke and Rafaela away. Every player's toolbox is different, so that 50 gets made up elsewhere with the Sox guys. But having any player with a 70 hit is elite, even if his future in-game power is "only" 50.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 15:02:14 GMT -5
Good thing this team is all set for starters. Yep ! MLB #37 ( Rays #4) prospect . Teams are giving up very good prospects for pitching help. Civale's not a rental and he's having a good year, but that is significant return for Cleveland, a team that seems to have an assembly line turning out #2/3 pitchers but very few MLB-level hitters.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 9:26:23 GMT -5
Embedded within that piece is a video where Speier talks about the trading deadline and Story. Having seen Story and Sale do rehab, he believes Story's arm will be fine at SS but he may take all of Aug to get up to speed with the bat, but they will bring him up sooner rather than later. Ditto for Sale.
On the trade deadline, I know we saw the "Sox will have to be blown away to trade Paxton" but he reiterated that "they will consider trading him to get players who might be able to help beyond 2023." That's vague, but as teams get more desperate, who knows what they'll put on the table.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 9:12:16 GMT -5
I wonder if he could be moved with someone in the 10-20 range to Detroit for manning or skubal “A source with another American League team confirmed the Sox inquired as to whether Verdugo would be of interest to them.” It very well might have been Detroit they asked. You figure they’re calling after a starter with team control. I imagine they’re not having that discussion with an AL East team. Oakland and KC don’t have a starter worth trading Verdugo for quite frankly. Houston’s controllable pitching is probably too good to give up conversely. The Rangers and Angels are waaay to aggressive to be giving away any of their pitching. That leaves Twins, Guardians, Tigers, White Sox and… Seattle. The team they go to play on deadline day. Now doesn’t that sound familiar. Seattle - who also envisions themselves a potential off-season destination for Ohtani - could look to off-load their second biggest contract, Castillo, while his value is at its zenith. I think that would take more than Verdugo, even if the Sox took all the money. Also, not sure if Castillo fits Mr. Bloom's plan for the team's structure going forward. Then again, at a $21.6M AAV, his salary will be the equivalent of a QA either this off-season or next, given how that's increased each year.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 7:38:33 GMT -5
Meanwhile, this team was given a gift in the 10th - no outs and Duran on second. That they couldn't plate him was, at least in my opinion, some bad in-game management.
First up was Refsnyder, who is dismal vs. RHP, his "squirrel finds a nut" hit earlier not withstanding. Even though bunting should be used sparingly, that was the moment to do it. At worst, you'd have 1 out and Duran on 3rd. At best, there would've been a misplay by the SF infield and you'd have 1st and 3rd with no outs or even a run with a man on second. But, OK, the expected outcome, Duran on 3rd with one out. Now you have what we've seen all season: A nervous pitcher with Duran on base. And in this case, he's bouncing down the base path 1/3 of the way to home before every pitch. This could've affected pitch selection, location, accuracy and even resulted in a passed ball. Regardless, all that was needed was a fly ball hard or hit to the right side of the infield and the Sox are up by 1 with 2 outs.
That they didn't try to execute this set the stage. When there was an amazing Houdini escape at the bottom of the 10th and they still couldn't move the runner at the top of the 11th, their fate was sealed. Compounding it all, Houston and Toronto lost.
Such a missed, easily grasped opportunity all around.
As Bill Belichick would say: "We're on to Seattle..."
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 18:52:59 GMT -5
This is not a good post and you should feel bad for it man. Is it a lie though. Let’s be real everyone is thinking it I wasn't.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 17:55:01 GMT -5
Of all the times to bunt, an inning with Duran on 2nd and Refsnyder up against a RHP was it.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 17:06:25 GMT -5
Got it going on that AB:
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 16:16:46 GMT -5
Feeling of teams talking to Red Sox is that Sox would have to be blown away if they were to deal Paxton So, like, straight-up for Noah Song? [ducks]
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 16:13:54 GMT -5
Attention Alex Cora: Refsnyder vs RHP this year: 79(!)PAs .169 AVE/.286 OBP/.215 SLG Duran vs LHP this year: 44 PAs .300 AVE/.341 OBP/.425 SLG Small samples both but one of these things is not like the other. Eh they don’t need to use the PH hit in a super low leverage situation. Wait til they get someone on base or have a righty up with less outs Screw the pinch hit, Refsnyder and/or Duvall should be seen as "openers" vs. LHP. Once the lefties are out, one or both should be gone.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:54:22 GMT -5
It does look like the Angels massively overpaid for Giolito though compared to this Montgomery deal. Agreed. Then again, that was more than likely an Arte Moreno-ordered deal in a desperate attempt to re-sign Ohtani in the off-season. Delusion can be an expensive proposition if one indulges in it too much.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:49:52 GMT -5
Attention Alex Cora:
Refsnyder vs RHP this year: 79(!)PAs .169 AVE/.286 OBP/.215 SLG Duran vs LHP this year: 44 PAs .300 AVE/.341 OBP/.425 SLG
Small samples both but one of these things is not like the other.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:38:48 GMT -5
Getting active out there. If Mr. Bloom is waiting to see "how the trade market develops" like he waited to see "how the free agent market develops" this past winter, he may lose out on all his "number one priorities" (like he did this winter). Yea such a bummer he had to settle for stiffs like Yoshida, Turner, Martin, and Kenley This seems like historical revisionism given the players who Mr. Bloom himself stated were "#1 priorities." Then again, sometimes the best deals you make are the ones you don't make or scramble to make when another blows up in your face. And my only point was, like free agency, the market seems to be moving quickly for the limited quality pieces that may benefit the Sox. Perhaps that will turn out to be a blessing in disguise. I'm also on record multiple times saying Sale, Houck, Whitlock and Story come back at what they were before they got injured, then this team needs no one. Are we all confident this will happen, though?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:25:50 GMT -5
So now we can't complain that nothing has happened yet in a trade deadline thread and thrown in a false-equivalency talk radio ad homimem? OK... Trades JUST started picking up and the deadline isn’t even 36 hours away, maybe just try an ounce of patience before launching the complaints that you’ve clearly been sitting on and itching for an excuse to hurl out And now the ad hominems have branched out to mind-reading. Such amazing abilities the people here have.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:21:27 GMT -5
Getting active out there. If Mr. Bloom is waiting to see "how the trade market develops" like he waited to see "how the free agent market develops" this past winter, he may lose out on all his "number one priorities" (like he did this winter). Really. We doing this complaining again? Sports talk radio has poisoned the brains of so many people So now we can't complain that nothing has happened yet in a trade deadline thread and thrown in a false-equivalency talk radio ad homimem? OK...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:12:49 GMT -5
They're going against a Lefty pitcher. I guess I really don't understand why today's lineup is so awful? It’s just a lefty opener…and Duran had a hit off a lefty yesterday. Casas is one of the hottest hitters in the game right now. I don’t like it that every lefty starter means Duran hits the bench. Refsnyder should start against lefties. That makes sense. But Duran should not always be the odd man out. If Refsnyder doesn't come out when the lefty opener gives way to a righty, this is just bad managing. Also, a lefty opener is the perfect time to get Duran more ABs vs. LHP. If this team really aspires to be a playoff team, they should be getting him more exposure to LHP, not less. Finally, given Duran's (admittedly) small sample vs. LHP this year, Refsnyder should be starting for Verdugo and no one else in that OF.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 15:09:18 GMT -5
Getting active out there. If Mr. Bloom is waiting to see "how the trade market develops" like he waited to see "how the free agent market develops" this past winter, he may lose out on all his "number one priorities" (like he did this winter).
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 14:04:19 GMT -5
One of the hardest things to gauge is how much other GMs like specific players in the Sox system. I remember a piece the Globe did back around 06 where they got other GMs/FO exec's opinions on the Sox top prospects. The comments that kept coming up no matter who the exec/GM was <paraphrasing> "We really like player X but we have no idea if the Sox do" or "We have no idea why the Sox value player Y so highly, we think he's an org guy/up and down replacement guy."
That kind of intel would be priceless this time of year, and in the Winter Meetings.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 12:41:42 GMT -5
Planned loss today by Cora:
1. LF Refsnyder
2. 1B Turner
3. 3B Devers
4. CF Duvall
5. DH Yoshida
6. 2B Arroyo
7. RF Verdugo
8. SS Reyes
9. C Alfaro
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 11:34:13 GMT -5
Ah yes, the "guys who are coming off the DL are our trade-deadline acquisitions" management/ownership narrative. Not saying they won't improve the team. Just curious if Mr. Bloom believes that's enough to get this team into the tournament. Story, if healthy, alone gets us into playoffs. A SP could help us win the playoffs. So you're suggesting Story will be a 2.5 (or more) fWAR player for the rest of the year? OK...
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 9:24:06 GMT -5
Rangers have been scouting Paxton Sure, Brock Porter + Jack Leiter plz That would be an interesting year 2 or 3 deal for Mr. Bloom. But if he makes that deal now it's a white flag on the rest of this season when ownership seems to have fans thinking this team is going for it. Butts in seats will fade in August and Mr. Bloom would probably kiss his job good-bye the first week of October.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 30, 2023 9:21:43 GMT -5
Maybe the Sox really view Story and Sale as deadline acquisitions and will stand pat because of that. Seems like a decent way to cheap out and not exactly the best way to go about things. I like the Kiké move but not for this year. The guy they got from the Giants is the usual end of the 40 man fodder. Ah yes, the "guys who are coming off the DL are our trade-deadline acquisitions" management/ownership narrative. Not saying they won't improve the team. Just curious if Mr. Bloom believes that's enough to get this team into the tournament.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2023 13:53:35 GMT -5
In his podcast with Darren Van Riper, Keith Law said Mayer is prob an opening day (or a few weeks after) 2025 guy at the earliest, with the lost time to injury last year costing him a bit of development. He also added, however, he adjusts so well that, if he's not on the Sox in July, 2024, he'll prob be his #1 or 2 MLB prospect, as the guys in front of him on his July 2023 list will probably be in MLB or on the cusp. He thinks Holiday is a May call-up next year, if not an opening day guy, which is insane.
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