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Recent Posts
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Post by Guidas on May 14, 2024 21:24:04 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on May 13, 2024 13:06:12 GMT -5
General Impressions:
- I don't think anyone (including the front office and field staff) expected the starters to be this good, or the pen for that matter.
- The team is hovering just above .500 but if not for a few weeks of shoddy (mostly infield) defense, they could be hovering near .600, and the pythag supports this.
- The loss of Cases and to a lesser extent, Story, loom rather large offensively. There are days when the team feels a basher short of winning a given game or making a bit of a run. Story's also missed defensively.
- Duran playing at an All Star level, and Abreu right behind him with an AS/ROY performance so far this year are great surprises. I was confident Duran had figured it out, but Abreu's been a revelation thus far. It will be interesting to see how much he regresses, or proves he's on a season-long tear. There are days when it feels like one or both of these two guys are carrying the team.
- There are also days it feels like they are wasting this pitching. Casas especially creates a hole in the line-up, but the lack of rope with Yoshida before his injury was disappointing. Despite the dearth of pop, his OBP (.348) and AVE (.275) were good enough for what he needs to be. I thought he was starting to look a bit more comfortable at the plate before he landed in Cora's doghouse. It's vital to figure out if he's going to be able to display enough pop with the OBP to justify the contract. Barring an OBP above .400, he'd need to keep current on-base levels and hit between 15-20 HRs and 30 or so doubles a year to do that. Doesn't seem impossible once he gets back to get on that pace, especially with the weather warming up, but the fact he seems to have zero defensive value to the team is disheartening because he'll have to suck-up most of the DH ABs. I hate the idea they will probably eat contract on him and sell low, but that seems like it could be in the cards.
- The team is fun to watch most days. It's still very early, but that's a big positive.
- Unfortunately, there are still stretches where they feel a player or three short of being a legit contender rather than just a team ambling along on the longest rebuild in this ownership's history. They are actually slightly behind where they were at this point last year (22-18).
- Biggest surprise: Tied between Abreu, the Staters ERA and Rafaela leading the team in RBI.
I'm sure all y'all have other impressions and areas of focus. Love to hear them. It's still early, but not too early.
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Post by Guidas on May 12, 2024 16:50:35 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on May 11, 2024 18:39:15 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on May 5, 2024 16:49:54 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on May 1, 2024 20:30:50 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 30, 2024 20:45:01 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2024 20:46:25 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2024 18:18:23 GMT -5
GREAT WIN!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 24, 2024 19:39:51 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 21, 2024 15:30:58 GMT -5
GREAT SWEEP!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 20, 2024 18:00:19 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 20, 2024 7:03:03 GMT -5
I really though starting pitching would be the achilles heal of the team this year. Pretty much thinking now that I was quite wrong !!! you and a whole bunch of us. That said, this level of success wasn't predicted by anyone that I know or read. Actually, I think Eno Saris of The Athletic called this and someone posted the prediction (aptly enough) in the predictions thread.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2024 20:05:17 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2024 20:06:56 GMT -5
Great Win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2024 8:47:07 GMT -5
Yes to all of this. As long as I've been following baseball, having a season with no significant injuries are outliers. Whether chronic (i.e. the "nagging" type that resurface on some guys), bad luck like collisions, twists, broken fingers and hands, or pitchers breaking with no prior warning, it happens to virtually every team, every season. These are all part of a 162 game season, period. For the life of me I am not sure what the philosophy has been with this team since late 2019 other than to try to get under the tax and more or less stay there. That may be a preferred business operating model, but whatever the accompanying team-building philosophy has been, it's produced substandard results. I know this is Breslow's first year, but his off-season was more or less indiscernible from one of Bloom's off-seasons. "Waiting for the kids" is great and all, but it's not like they're bullet-proof, either. I feel like Breslow built a roster that makes a lot of sense in the abstract: each position, and each spot in the rotation and bullpen, was filled at the beginning of spring training with an at least competent player, some of them with significant upside. But one disruption to that plan (and there have already been several) and the whole thing quickly starts to wobble. Whereas Bloom's rosters tended to be kind of weird, sometimes with inexplicable holes in them (e.g., the 2022 outfield), but also with flexibility and redundancies that could help to patch things on the fly. But it's hard to separate these approaches from the situations they each inherited. For Bloom, that was an almost total lack of young talent filtering up and a lot of dead money on the books, which made it hard to cover all the holes on the roster. For Breslow, it's been an inexplicable budget constraint (I guess? I assume?) that's handcuffed his ability to bolster the roster even as a bunch of young talent is finally arriving.
And the first rule in this sport seems to be that there will be disruptions. Or as we've all referred to that great bard at one time or another: "Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face." Michael Tyson, PhD in Life, Nobel Laureate of Street Philosophy
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2024 8:44:01 GMT -5
Got to keep telling myself "expectations are low, just enjoy baseball and watch the kids develop". Trying hard to keep fan emotions out of it. Not easy to do. We're all fans here or we wouldn't be here. Nothing wrong with wanting your team to succeed, or even letting that affect your appraisal of on-field play. Different than the stories than the statistics tell us sometimes, but not always. And I gotta say, watching the kids develop has been going on for 4+ years now. They have some talent down there and in Boston, but we're fans of the MLB team for a reason, and it's not to have the best farm system or win AA championships.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 17, 2024 8:14:09 GMT -5
This team, which had money to burn, nonetheless went into the season with almost no depth at all to hedge against injuries. As of April 17th, Giolito and Story are out for the season, Grissom has yet to debut, and Pivetta's missed two weeks. Devers has already missed six games, and it sounds like he's set to add to that. It's tough to overcome the combination of bad luck *and* bad contingency planning. They've worked around the pitching injuries so far (sort of; if Giolito had been healthy, Houck could've been helpful in the bullpen in a game like yesterday's). But the replacements for Grissom, Story, and Devers have already compiled -1.2 WAR in 18 games. Yes to all of this. As long as I've been following baseball, having a season with no significant injuries are outliers. Whether chronic (i.e. the "nagging" type that resurface on some guys), bad luck like collisions, twists, broken fingers and hands, or pitchers breaking with no prior warning, it happens to virtually every team, every season. These are all part of a 162 game season, period. For the life of me I am not sure what the philosophy has been with this team since late 2019 other than to try to get under the tax and more or less stay there. That may be a preferred business operating model, but whatever the accompanying team-building philosophy has been, it's produced substandard results. I know this is Breslow's first year, but his off-season was more or less indiscernible from one of Bloom's off-seasons. "Waiting for the kids" is great and all, but it's not like they're bullet-proof, either.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 14, 2024 15:32:53 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2024 17:56:56 GMT -5
Great Win!
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Post by Guidas on Apr 13, 2024 8:37:08 GMT -5
I feel really sorry for Story. The guy clearly lives to play, and he is having many years taken by injuries. That is cruel. This. I mean, at the same time you could exchange the name "Sale" for "Story" and it was an evergreen since 2019. I say this being big fans of them both rebounding. Was not a fan of the Sale re-signing (I wanted him to prove he was healthy, and I wanted them to go after Cole), but was supportive of the Story acquisition when they passed on Seager. After his extension, Sale gave the Red Sox a total of 4 years, 6.7 fWAR and (according to Fangraphs) produced $53.5M in results/value at a rate of $24.1M per year over 4 years (and I believe they are still paying him $17M this year, yes?) for a total of $113.4M invested. So far, Story has given the Red Sox a total of 3 years, 2.9 fWAR and $23.1M in results/value at $23.3M per year over 3 years with 3 years still to go (assuming Story doesn't opt out in 2025), for a total of $140M invested. The Sale deal was supposed to be Dombroski's death knell. Bloom took fewer big risks, but the three he did take — Story and Yoshida acquisitions, Devers extension — Story is looking a lot like the Sale deal, and probably worse unless he can generate about 4 fWAR next year. Yoshida is TBA but not off to an auspicious start, either.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 12, 2024 21:02:30 GMT -5
Sad.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 12, 2024 12:56:15 GMT -5
After 1 home run, the big league club welcomes him back! He will now CARRY this team to the playoffs.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 10, 2024 10:30:31 GMT -5
This is brutal. My heart goes out to Story. He reminds me of Sale - a ton of talent that keeps getting injured.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 7, 2024 18:05:08 GMT -5
Great win!
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