SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Recent Posts
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2024 11:08:50 GMT -5
there it is ! been missing THE CALL. always a pleasure to see.I was watching the UConn Women and got distracted. It is THAT time of year!
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2024 8:32:27 GMT -5
Also, if the MLB owners cared at all about the integrity of the game they’d for Fisher to sell. He makes Jeff Loria look like George Steinbrenner.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 2, 2024 8:30:44 GMT -5
Great win!
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 31, 2024 17:44:39 GMT -5
Great win!
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 29, 2024 7:03:05 GMT -5
Great Win!
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 28, 2024 21:51:15 GMT -5
BOOM!
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 27, 2024 12:47:22 GMT -5
The Athletic's Eno Sarris is bullish about Sox starters in 2024: "The Red Sox have a top-five American League rotation" From the article: I love Saris and think he's more comprehensive on pitching than virtually all of the other big outlet writers. If this is correct, the Sox will win 92 or more games. If Eno's misreading the spring tea leaves - and I've long been told that spring outcomes are virtually meaningless - then this staff will be at or below the mean being predicted by this board. We should have a good idea about 50 games in what this staff is and is not.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 27, 2024 11:02:36 GMT -5
With regards to the thread, I am guessing Breslow gets the final call on extending Cora. Given the Sox track record with free agents who they let play out the season (and I'll lump Cora in this bucket), if he doesn't have a new contract before tonight's game, can we assume that Breslow is letting him walk, short of winning the World Series? Otherwise, he and the ownership group will likely be looking at topping Craig Counsel's $40m deal with the Cubs.
My only other thought is, at the end of the year, ownership offers — and Cora accepts — some kind of front office position. However, this would seem to make Breslow's seat a little warm, if not hot. I really don't anticipate the front office for Cora scenario occurring, but it's within the realm of possibility given how often we've been told the owners love Cora. Then again, they loved Theo, sooooo.....
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 20, 2024 10:25:02 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 13, 2024 11:41:03 GMT -5
I'll echo a couple of the previous critiques - I guess my concern is that I'm not sure how you reached the conclusion that stamina was the variable here. I think it's a reasonable hypothesis, but there seem to be other factors. Your control group, as it were, is the guys who continue to succeed from the fourth inning onward, meaning that you're kind of pre-selecting your sample of guys who are going to have both strong stamina and stuff. Like, Spencer Strider holds his stuff well, but his slider is also baseball's best pitch. If the theory was correct, then high-stamina players who are more average-ish would hold their results better into the games, but you've filtered that group out of the sample. I agree with this. There are very few things in sports, especially when more than one person is involved in outcomes, that are single variate. Stamina certainly could be a contributing factor, but we'd need an agreed upon definition of "stamina" as it relates to pitching first. If teams (or even a team) did have such a definition and could convince pitchers, and especially starters, to wear biometric devices to measure the contributing factors that define stamina (such as heart rate, respiration, lactic acid build-up between pitches, etc.), then they would be able to see if there's at least a correlation within a specified sample (i.e. their pitchers). Even with this, however, we can't discount the inputs from batters, or even catchers or umpires (at least, the latter until RoboUmps are integrated and there's more consistency to the strike zone and calls throughout an at bat and the game). A stamina definition and real time measurements, however, would at least give teams a (presumably) significant factor to account for in-game adjustments using that factor alone. But I doubt pitchers/the union would agree to biometric measurements anytime soon as they might affect compensation in free agency or even arbitration.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 12, 2024 14:52:54 GMT -5
OK, I've seen enough. Without the addition of a #2/3 starter before opening day I'll go high optimism and say 77 wins.
This ownership group has gone from one of the top 3 in baseball to a bunch of Cleveland Guardian fanboys. Unfortunately, they forgot the part that the AL East is not the AL Central.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 5, 2024 15:55:46 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 2, 2024 12:34:43 GMT -5
Utility infielder Nick Yorke could actually fit the Red Sox long term roster decently long term (if Grissom or Valdez wins the 2B spot) I'm not sure he has the defensive versatity to play anywhere else in the infield beyond second. At least, that's what I've read, which includes "fringe average arm," (Sox Prospects, other evaluation sites). That means no SS or 3rd base. Doesn't have the pop for LF or DH. And few if any teams looking for a 5-11 1st baseman with limited pop and range. Alternately, if he could adjust to MLB pitching and show his current selectivity there, he could become a .350+ OBP DH/2nd baseman. The latter has definitive value. The former without, say 20+ HR power, would be outside the box. The biggest thing he has going for him right now other than his hitting eye is his work ethic. You can't coach speed or make that arm much more effective, but if he can lock down league average footwork and transitions at 2nd and maintain the OBP skills at the highest level (this will be the hardest achievement given how difficult it's been for AAA players to adjust to MLB pitching in the last several years) he'll play for either the Sox or some other MLB team.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Mar 1, 2024 10:27:05 GMT -5
This is fine as a minor league flier, but is Cron really an upgrade over Dalbec at this point in the given role? You’re looking for a backup 1B who can hit lefties. Over the last two years, (134 PAs for Dalbec, 266 PAs for Cron), Dalbec had a .755 and .859 OPS in 22/23 vs .695 and .747 OPS for Cron against lefties. Cron has a track record of success in this league, which Dalbec can’t really say, but given all the other factors, I’d stick with Dalbec. Probably worth mentioning that by measures such as xwOBA and xSLG, Cron has hit fastballs well in recent years. So whatever rotations they are going against early in the year may play an impact on this competition So, Jobu no can hit the curveball.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 26, 2024 18:12:16 GMT -5
So they're basically the Cleveland Red Sox, now?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 24, 2024 12:11:26 GMT -5
The Sox sign Montgomery yet? He's got to be down to 4-5 years at this point since the market is not responding to 7-8 (reported ask). Why not make a 4 or 5-year offer equivalent to each year's QO and offer an opt-out after year 2?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 22, 2024 23:05:44 GMT -5
[quote author=" James Dunne" source="[post/673081/thread" timestamp="1708535454"]Best: Devers re-emerges as a possible MVP-level contributor and Rafaela is ready enough with the bat, solidifying the outfield defense. Boosted by one of the best infields in baseball and a deep, flexible pitching staff, they are in contention. A trade for pending free agent Shane Bieber at the deadline gives the team the frontline starter it needed to overtake a young Orioles team and a Yankee squad that doesn't have enough depth in order win the division and to make a run through through the playoffs. Worst: Stagnation by the guys who emerged in 2023 (Bello, Casas, Duran, and Wongand a pitching staff where Whitlock and Houck continue to struggle with consistency is full of swingmen and tweeners, leaving them with the sort of mediocre core that is stuck in the 73-79 win range. [/quote] Not really worst case, but I am concerned about some regression withCasas and Bello, and Wong just getting even more worn out this year. A little more upbeat about Duran (as long as he doesn’t re-injure in the same spot) and Yoshida, who will now understand the true grindiness of the grind.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 18, 2024 17:05:37 GMT -5
I think they also used this:
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 20:13:36 GMT -5
I have never seen him play myself, so again, I wouldn't knock someone in a vacuum for thinking he can't stick at SS. The thing I take issue with is doing that based on evaluations while he was injured, then throwing in quips like "we aren’t long from Mayer having been frustrating for a longer than he was good," as if the entirety of the time he has underwhelmed in the minors hasn't coincided with him being injured... At least they were consistent in saying they felt he would eventually have to move off SS for two years now, but the write-up repeatedly pulls from 2023 evaluations to make that point.
Fair enough and I also found the sentence that he's close to being frustrating longer than he's been good as a strange knock that made little sense to me. If you change the “he” to a “she,” I dated her in the mid-90s.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 16:26:01 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model. I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating. No subscription is needed to read the Fangraphs Top 100 write-ups and they're worth checking out, for the Sox guys at minimum: blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-top-100-prospects/ Here's Mayer: Good Lord. This is like a flashing digital billboard with the message "TRADE HIM NOW!!" On the flipside, this seems to be the complete other side of the scale from evaluators who say the bat and the defense should play at All Star quality in MLB once he's settled in.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 12:23:41 GMT -5
Could it also be that Longenhagen is dinging Mayer because he's lost essentially a year of development time to injuries. Granted, none of these injuries appear to be of the chronic "gotta watch that" type, but cumulatively, they could've put up a flag in the model.
I have no knowledge this explains his ranking, just postulating.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 16, 2024 12:19:41 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 14, 2024 15:50:16 GMT -5
Maybe I'm not remembering correctly, but when was Bloom ever touted as a pitching development guru? People just conflate anyone that’s ever touched the Rays as being pitching King Midas, I think. I remember Saris including it in an article about Bloom early on, talking about how he had an extraordinary eye for finding undervalued pitching and developing it. Again, that could be conflation with just being part of the Tampa org. Also, just for reference for the MLB Team: 2023 4.52 ERA/4.37 FIP/4.23 xFIP 2022 4.53 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.11 xFIP 2021 4.27 ERA/3.95 FIP/4.07 xFIP 2020 (omitted - short season outlier, but you can look it up if you like) 2019 4.70 ERA/4.28 FIP/4.39 xFIP 2018 3.75 ERA/3.82 FIP/3.92 xFIP 2017 3.73 ERA/3.78 FIP/3.91 xFIP 2016 4.00 ERA/4,00 FIP/4.20 xFIP 2015 4.34 ERA/4.17 FIP/4.14 xFIP 2014 4.01 ERA/3.93 FIP/.3.87 xFIP 2013 3.78 ERA/3.84 FIP/3.89 xFIP The past solution was to either spend assets for elite pitching, or trade them for elite pitching. Like many here, I'm all for spending cash that isn't mine, but I also recognize that if your pitching development continues to be middle of the road or worse, then sometimes you need to trade elite assets to get elite assets. We all have our favorites, and I don't want to see mine go out the door for some #1/2 who could blow up at any time, either. However, if they want to be truly competitive within their division, as the article suggested, they need to change what they've been doing to get more consistent results. I am hopeful this new regime has the keys to that magic Mercedes, as I was with the last two regimes. But I'll remain skeptical until I see results on the field.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 14, 2024 15:21:45 GMT -5
I'm arguing that the Sox have been poor at developing starting pitching better than a 4th/5th starter for 12-15 years. There have been a few outliers recently (Bello, maybe Crawford), but overall they are still substandard at it. When Bloom was hired we were told he was a pitching development and scouting guru, but the results remained mixed. With two guys ascending it could be whatever developmental protocols he implemented. There were some nice pick-ups, but again, relievers and 4th/5th starters, which the Sox have been OK at producing. Also, the near immediate success of got-aways in other systems - Péréz, Springs Strahm among others - makes one wonder. All of this is to say, we've heard the pitching genius siren's song before. I'll believe it when they develop some #2 and #1 starters again. I'll add that it's dispiriting when ownership runs the same BS at us year after year since mid-2019 and expects us to swallow it over and over again. I'll believe it when I see it on the field. Okay. Though Bello + Crawford (and Houck, etc.) is better than what they were producing in, say, 2018, when the best starter on the major league roster who they had originally signed was Brian Johnson. This I agree with.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Feb 14, 2024 12:59:48 GMT -5
Better than it was when they won three division titles in a row? OK… Things you've said in this discussion: - "The key is better scouting and pitcher development" - the team has been bad at this for the last 10+ years - the notable exceptions came within the last couple of years - the team was better at pitching development and acquisition 6-8 years ago You just ignored all the points in the comment you're responding to here about how much better the team seems to be at acquiring and developing pitching. But you contrast it with the division-winning years, when they built an entire staff by selling most of the farm and making big-dollar free agent signings. So... the key isn't better scouting/development but actually they just need to trade away all their prospects and spend big on free agents? I have no idea what you're arguing here.
I'm arguing that the Sox have been poor at developing starting pitching better than a 4th/5th starter for 12-15 years. There have been a few outliers recently (Bello, maybe Crawford), but overall they are still substandard at it. When Bloom was hired we were told he was a pitching development and scouting guru, but the results remained mixed. With two guys ascending it could be whatever developmental protocols he implemented. There were some nice pick-ups, but again, relievers and 4th/5th starters, which the Sox have been OK at producing. Also, the near immediate success of got-aways in other systems - Péréz, Springs Strahm among others - makes one wonder. All of this is to say, we've heard the pitching genius siren's song before. I'll believe it when they develop some #2 and #1 starters again. I'll add that it's dispiriting when ownership runs the same BS at us year after year since mid-2019 and expects us to swallow it over and over again. I'll believe it when I see it on the field.
|
|
|