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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by vermontsox1 on Dec 1, 2023 8:52:41 GMT -5
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Dec 1, 2023 9:03:04 GMT -5
My first thought is good for Abreu/Gonzalez or tough for Yorke.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Dec 1, 2023 9:25:09 GMT -5
Kind of surprised to see Gonzalez above Perales, and even though I like Perales more I kind of like that. Those are two guys who could have a huge impact on the system with a good 2024 campaign.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 1, 2023 10:01:40 GMT -5
Continues to be a very immature system, with six the players never having hit AA for more than a season end cup of coffee (Anthony/Mayer*/Theel/Bleis/Perales/Cespedes). We also Zantello/Garcia/Romero/Paulino and Monegro in the same boat.
If there is a wave of prospects, it is still swelling a bit further offshore. With that amount of variance still built into our farm, I have to imagine some will be cashed out this coming week.
* I include Mayer because we hope his season was not representative of his true unrestricted ability.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 1, 2023 10:12:09 GMT -5
Continues to be a very immature system, with six the players never having hit AA for more than a season end cup of coffee (Anthony/Mayer*/Theel/Bleis/Perales/Cespedes). We also Zantello/Garcia/Romero/Paulino and Monegro in the same boat. If there is a wave of prospects, it is still swelling a bit further offshore. With that amount of variance still built into our farm, I have to imagine some will be cashed out this coming week. * I include Mayer because we hope his season was not representative of his true unrestricted ability. An alternative framing is that 5 of the top 10 are in AA, 2 are in the MLB (or have reached MLB), 1 in high A, 1 in low A, 1 in rookie ball. How do you define further offshore? Because of the top 10, 7 of them are likely to reach the Majors within the next two seasons.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2023 10:19:08 GMT -5
Yeah, seven of the top 10 are going to start the season in Double-A or higher, and Perales has a very good chance to get there at midseason. I don't think I agree about the system's immaturity.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2023 10:26:09 GMT -5
Continues to be a very immature system, with six the players never having hit AA for more than a season end cup of coffee (Anthony/Mayer*/Theel/Bleis/Perales/Cespedes). Not to pile on, but Double-A is the High Minors. I'm far more inclined to look at it as only 3 of the top 10 haven't yet reached Double-A. Yes, reaching Double-A isn't what it used to be when short-season was a thing, but it'd be weird to go into a season with a bunch of your top prospects slated for AAA.
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Post by okin15 on Dec 4, 2023 9:12:58 GMT -5
Another way to look at is yes, they're immature, as in they're almost all 21 or younger, but of course that's what you want, guys playing well at age-advanced placements throughout the system.
Though it's true that we are (largely) missing the 22-26 y.o. cohort in the AA-MLB range. We don't need to rehash why that is. And of course, there's Casas, Bello, Rafaella, Abreu and others, but other than a couple names there's not as much remaining potential there as might be hoped for.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 4, 2023 18:19:38 GMT -5
Another way to look at is yes, they're immature, as in they're almost all 21 or younger, but of course that's what you want, guys playing well at age-advanced placements throughout the system. Though it's true that we are (largely) missing the 22-26 y.o. cohort in the AA-MLB range. We don't need to rehash why that is. And of course, there's Casas, Bello, Rafaella, Abreu and others, but other than a couple names there's not as much remaining potential there as might be hoped for. 22-26 isn't something you "miss" though. As you allude to, you want guys to be younger.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Dec 6, 2023 10:01:30 GMT -5
Kind of surprised to see Gonzalez above Perales, and even though I like Perales more I kind of like that. Those are two guys who could have a huge impact on the system with a good 2024 campaign. I have Gonzalez higher, too. Mostly because he's further along than Perales. The 2 are an interesting comparison as they match up age/level wise. Wikelman in A ball at age 20: 12.6% BB%, 28.3% K%, 0.4% HR% (wow). Perales in A ball at age 20: 12.7% BB%, 29.3% K%, 2.5% HR%. Pretty remarkable, especially when you consider HR% is somewhat fluky. This is especially true with Perales's tiny sample size. Careers to date: Wikelman: 12.5% BB%, 30.4% K%, 1.1% HR % 1313 batters faced. Perales: 13.0% BB%, 30.7% K%, 2.0% HR%. 547 batters faced. They will both have to vastly improve their command/control to be anything more than Darwinzon Hernandez, though.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 12, 2023 10:55:43 GMT -5
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 12, 2023 13:46:29 GMT -5
Bleacher report gives the Sox the lofty #3 system ranking.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 12, 2023 14:35:15 GMT -5
Time to reevaluate your tiers if Mayer and Yorke are in the same one
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 12, 2023 16:24:23 GMT -5
Time to reevaluate your tiers if Mayer and Yorke are in the same one Tier(1) simply means that they're all top-100 prospects according to Bleacher Report. Here is their full methodology:
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Dec 12, 2023 16:28:58 GMT -5
Is BR in any way a legitimate rating service (asking as someone who has never visited the site)?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Dec 12, 2023 16:48:32 GMT -5
Is BR in any way a legitimate rating service (asking as someone who has never visited the site)? No, it’s not good for anything. You’ve been taking the right approach
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2023 17:25:24 GMT -5
Bleacher report gives the Sox the lofty #3 system ranking. But my neighbors Joanne and Mike have them #1, and they know a LOT more about baseball.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 13, 2023 2:32:34 GMT -5
Didn't expect so much toxicity from a Bleacher report article. They're not the best, but they do have some good writers (more so covering the NBA) with contacts. Used to be (almost) as bad as Fansided when they first started, but Time Warner is investing heavy into their brand.
I imagine the writer took much of his information from others, but nothing in there that seemed outrageous.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2023 8:59:47 GMT -5
It had Nick Yorke on the same tier as Mayer/Anthony, had Luis Perales outside the top 10, had Wilyer Abreu apparently behind Blaze Jordan. Not to slam Joel Reuter, but I've never heard of him, and ranking a top 10 in every organization takes a TON of work. Typical of Bleacher Reports worst reputation, most of his writing is lists - the sort of stuff that generates clicks rather than provides information. There's little to no editorial consistency, so it's not really "Bleacher Report's top 10" -- it's "Joel Reuter's top 10." And it's not like he shows a ton of knowledge - he mentions Mayer's struggles without the context of the injury, and the only other player who gets a bullet point is Fitts, and it's really just his 2023 stats. There's no meat there as to why I'd consider his list meaningful.
There are some publications, BA, MLB, Fangraphs, etc. where either their expertise or reach makes their rankings noteworthy (if not necessarily accurate). Beyond that, it's not as if I'm not interested in what someone has to say about the system, it's more that I'm not interested in the rankings aspect of it. If someone sends me a article and is like "wow, he makes a great point about Nick Yorke here that I hadn't considered" then I'm interested, no matter whether it's from a national publication or from someone self-publishing on blogger. But just a top-ten list from someone like that doesn't carry any authority.
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Post by okin15 on Dec 13, 2023 10:08:02 GMT -5
Another way to look at is yes, they're immature, as in they're almost all 21 or younger, but of course that's what you want, guys playing well at age-advanced placements throughout the system. Though it's true that we are (largely) missing the 22-26 y.o. cohort in the AA-MLB range. We don't need to rehash why that is. And of course, there's Casas, Bello, Rafaella, Abreu and others, but other than a couple names there's not as much remaining potential there as might be hoped for. 22-26 isn't something you "miss" though. As you allude to, you want guys to be younger. You don't miss them in the prospect rankings, but the MLB team does in terms of cost-controlled players (both impact and shuttle). I know this thread is about prospects, so it's only relevant for the way we "feel" about the system in as much as our feelings subconsciously incorporate the young guys who have graduated prospect status. Sorry for the tangent; carry on.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 14, 2023 11:49:11 GMT -5
The list didn't have much meat on it, and certainly nobody would ever put BR anywhere close to the top publications that focus on MLB prospects. They are more basketball focused after all.
But is having Perales 4 (or so) spots lower that extreme? Blaze Jordan over Abreu seems wrong to me, but is it unthinkable a reasonable person can come to that conclusion? Is it inherently wrong to say that Mayer, Anthony and Yorke are all top-100 prospects? (I posted what the tiers mean as there seemed to be confusion)
I appreciate the constructive criticism which usually comes from these threads. But last time I saw responses like this it was when I first posted the Fangraphs rankings many years ago.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Dec 14, 2023 11:54:44 GMT -5
The list didn't have much meat on it, and certainly nobody would ever put BR anywhere close to the top publications that focus on MLB prospects. They are more basketball focused after all. But is having Perales 4 (or so) spots lower that extreme? Blaze Jordan over Abreu seems wrong to me, but is it unthinkable a reasonable person can come to that conclusion? Is it inherently wrong to say that Mayer, Anthony and Yorke are all top-100 prospects? (I posted what the tiers mean as there seemed to be confusion) I appreciate the constructive criticism which usually comes from these threads. But last time I saw responses like this it was when I first posted the Fangraphs rankings many years ago. The point is not that the list is bad, it’s that it does’t bring anything valuable to the table. There’s no reason to believe this guy’s list is any more insightful than the list of anybody who posts on this board.
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Post by bosox904 on Dec 15, 2023 13:01:36 GMT -5
Wasn't sure where else to post this, but the BA Future Projections is doing a podcast episode on the state of each divisions farm systems. The AL East episode dropped today. Haven't finished it yet, but if you want to avoid the Ohtani discussion you have to skip to about the 21 minute mark.
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Post by stunzisox on Dec 15, 2023 16:04:38 GMT -5
Wasn't sure where else to post this, but the BA Future Projections is doing a podcast episode on the state of each divisions farm systems. The AL East episode dropped today. Haven't finished it yet, but if you want to avoid the Ohtani discussion you have to skip to about the 21 minute mark. TY. Had been waiting on this to drop.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 19, 2023 9:14:21 GMT -5
The Yankees, who had only one 50 FV prospect on fangraphs' 2023 updated list, and who have traded away a bunch of prospects this offseason, now somehow have six 50 FV or better prospects on fangraphs' new list. They're gonna have like a top 5 farm system ranking.
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