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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jan 17, 2024 15:05:16 GMT -5
Wasn't sure if this made sense to put here in this thread specifically, but found this kind of fascinating: Not sure if there's really a way to track this aside from poring through old SP rankings, but is this widest gap between pitching and position player prospect value/rankings in recent memory? Develop hitters, buy pitchers. TNSTAAPP 4 ever
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Post by bluechip on Jan 17, 2024 15:47:19 GMT -5
Has baseball America's team rankings come out? That tweet said BA had them at 5 but another post I saw had them listed at 13 for 2024? It’s out. They released the digital version of the handbook which includes org. rankings. Red Sox are 13th.
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Post by theburn on Jan 17, 2024 20:42:39 GMT -5
Wasn't sure if this made sense to put here in this thread specifically, but found this kind of fascinating: Not sure if there's really a way to track this aside from poring through old SP rankings, but is this widest gap between pitching and position player prospect value/rankings in recent memory? Develop hitters, buy pitchers. TNSTAAPP 4 ever Sure. As long as you, you know, actually do the buying pitching part.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 17, 2024 20:59:01 GMT -5
Wasn't sure if this made sense to put here in this thread specifically, but found this kind of fascinating: Not sure if there's really a way to track this aside from poring through old SP rankings, but is this widest gap between pitching and position player prospect value/rankings in recent memory? Develop hitters, buy pitchers. TNSTAAPP 4 ever Disagree. Investing in pitching free agents is riskier: From the guy who coined TINSTAPP, Gary Huckabay: “When I first wrote that “There’s No Such Thing as a Pitching Prospect,” it meant two things, one of which has kind of become lost over time. Yes, it means that pitchers get hurt at approximately the same rate that methheads swipe identities and lose teeth. That’s what all pitchers do, not just prospects. But it also had another meaning-that guys who are totally blowing people away in the minors like they’re so many hot dog pretenders before Kobayashi are absolutely not pitching prospects-they’re already pitchers, and more time in the minors only means time off the living, pulsating clocks that are their labrums, rotator cuffs, and elbows.” www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/5933/hope-and-faith-how-the-san-francisco-giants-can-win-the-world-series/
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 17, 2024 21:36:10 GMT -5
Wasn't sure if this made sense to put here in this thread specifically, but found this kind of fascinating: Not sure if there's really a way to track this aside from poring through old SP rankings, but is this widest gap between pitching and position player prospect value/rankings in recent memory? Develop hitters, buy pitchers. TNSTAAPP 4 ever Totally disagree. I remember watching Roger Clemens pitching at New Britain, knowing damn well he was a pitching prospect in the system, one that had graduated Tudor, Hurst, almeda, and Boyd You cant constantly spend a ton of money on free agent pitching because the injury rate is high enough to turn the investment very risky. As it was this year, all the Dox have done is rent Giolito. Buying pitching is a lot easier said than done. Developing good young pitching is worth its weight in gold. Quantity and quality are important because of the attrition rate but that's why you can't disregard minor league pitching. That's why the Sox farm system rightfully gets dinged for lacking quality young pitching on the system.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 17, 2024 21:45:28 GMT -5
I used to lean towards the idea that I'd rather have high end hitting prospects vs high end pitching prospects. I think im now flipped on it after seeing the cost of pitching in FA and trading.
Ideally you'd have a mix of both but going forward I'd like to see them start making more of an effort at getting high end pitching prospects whether via trade, draft or international signings. Goes without saying the development needs to be more consistent as well. It's just tough to be a consistent high level MLB team when you go however many years it's been since they developed an ace caliber guy in Lester.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Jan 17, 2024 22:03:13 GMT -5
I used to lean towards the idea that I'd rather have high end hitting prospects vs high end pitching prospects. I think im now flipped on it after seeing the cost of pitching in FA and trading. Ideally you'd have a mix of both but going forward I'd like to see them start making more of an effort at getting high end pitching prospects whether via trade, draft or international signings. Goes without saying the development needs to be more consistent as well. It's just tough to be a consistent high level MLB team when you go however many years it's been since they developed an ace caliber guy in Lester. The hit rate on high ranked pitching prospects is still much lower than offensive. Injury risk is a bigger factor for arms. I think you bake that all in when determining your confidence in a player and just draft accordingly from there without prejudice. But I think it’s easier to be first round pick level confident in bats, so they’d likely be more common.
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Post by keninten on Jan 17, 2024 22:17:46 GMT -5
The Sox start drafting pitchers in the 4th round. Load up on quantity after that. The last 2-1st rounders were Groome and Houck. The best player drafted after Groome was Dalbec. After Houck it was Kutter. I`d like to see it stay the way it has for the last few years.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 18, 2024 1:11:04 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2.
Make of that what you will.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 18, 2024 2:51:52 GMT -5
With injury prone mid-rotation starters and dependable back-end starters getting mid-teens to low-20s AAV contracts, that could be where the smart money is at in developing prospects. More Kutter Crawford and Nick Pivetta types. Easier to acquire and affordable in arbitration.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jan 18, 2024 6:34:08 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2. Make of that what you will. How about statements about the absolute need for home grown talent are more an articulation of faith than the summation of strong evidence based reasoning? There's only one champion but many different ways to get there isn't actually some crazy heretical statement against the One True Way to build a champion.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 18, 2024 9:49:18 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2. Make of that what you will. As a leading proponent of a development structure that's focused on position players, I hear you. But a lot of those successes came because they used promising minor league pitchers they'd developed to trade for good veterans. You probably don't get Sale without Kopech, you don't get Beckett without Anibal Sanchez, Casey Fossum and Jorge De La Rosa brought Schilling, Pavano and Armas got Pedro. Teams willing to trade a pre-FA pitcher are generally looking to get a high-end arm back.
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Post by ephus on Jan 18, 2024 9:51:57 GMT -5
I am old enough to remember when the very clear and deliberate thinking was draft high end, athletic hitters and college relievers; stocking your system with blue chips that could bring talent to the major league roster AND or be dealt for major league ready arms.
The thinking was this process would take about five years and the world was about to shut down.
It is hilarious that we are lamenting not having front of the rotation arms when we simply have not employed a strategy to bring those arms into the system via draft or signing.
Hold on, I need to go yell at some kids on my lawn.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2024 10:23:20 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 18, 2024 10:45:47 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2024 10:59:36 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2. Make of that what you will. As a leading proponent of a development structure that's focused on position players, I hear you. But a lot of those successes came because they used promising minor league pitchers they'd developed to trade for good veterans. You probably don't get Sale without Kopech, you don't get Beckett without Anibal Sanchez, Casey Fossum and Jorge De La Rosa brought Schilling, Pavano and Armas got Pedro. Teams willing to trade a pre-FA pitcher are generally looking to get a high-end arm back. Beeks -> Eovaldi Lester -> (eventually) Porcello Dustin Richardson -> Andrew Miller -> ERod Frankie Montas (and others) -> Peavy Etc
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jan 18, 2024 13:27:33 GMT -5
The Sox start drafting pitchers in the 4th round. Load up on quantity after that. The last 2-1st rounders were Groome and Houck. The best player drafted after Groome was Dalbec. After Houck it was Kutter. I`d like to see it stay the way it has for the last few years. My TINSTAAP comment was somewhat in jest, I do think it's important to develop homegrown pitchers, but the better '"value" or allocation of draft resources tends to favor position players. I do find this interesting, because I do think their biggest "misses" in terms of ability to draft and develop starters have been after the 1st round and who they've selected. If you've followed anything I write during the draft season, its I actually love college pitchers. They are extremely volatile, sure, but I don't think they've done a good enough job of identifying the right college arms for their program, where as Cleveland, the Dodgers, and the Yankees are some of the best at finding the college arms in rounds 2-10. We were hopeful for guys like Thad Ward, Zeferjahn, Jake Thompson, Brock Bell and Mike Shawaryn, and a few others, but they sort of were tapped out, and on top of that, a combine that with the fact they really haven't approached the HS pitching pool much at in in the draft either, or that's why we had such a dearth of SP. I look at the Yankees, who btw have not drafted well in the 1st round for a long time (Judge and Volpe aside) but they are finding those college arms (and have done a good job w the int'l arms, too). Guys like Whitlock, Drew Thorpe, Chase Hampton, Fitts, Chandler Champaign, Will Warren, Kyle Carr were not top 50 picks but they've done a really nice job developing their traits into good looking SP prospects, and that's a team that typically drafts in the same area as the Red Sox have, and have similar draft bonus pools. They just haven't had the same success maximizing those college arms like their contemporaries have. I'm interested to see if they will take more swings under Breslow's guidance. He's said as much, but it was clear that the philosophy in recent drafts was position players, and I think for where the system was, it made a lot of sense to build up that core, but now I think they can use some of that core to trade for SP (problem is, no one is selling that right now), or have a young core and enough roster value that you can take a swing and pay for a front-line SP (the problem is the Dodgers bought both already this offseason). One area however, they've seemingly been decent at is the international arms- which I think they've actually been one of the better teams in the league at that recently, but those arms just take a bit longer and more time for injuries to stunt growth. I think Bloom was started down the path of maximizing those "traits" we heard a lot early on about how they revamped the sequencing, pitch selections, tunneling, really everything, and I think it worked w some of the international pop ups we've seen, and they have really deep group of intriguing Ps starting to approach AA, and I think by year's end, the state of the system will look a little different. I am eager to see that group this year.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 18, 2024 14:16:08 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) $5.6 2023 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) $1.3 2021 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) $200K 2019 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 1st round 2021 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 2nd round 2022 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 2023 1st round 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) $1.2 2021 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) $200K 2020 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) $2.5 million 2022 www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024How acquired
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Post by seanleary001 on Jan 18, 2024 14:48:51 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024 As someone who fell in love with Rushing’s game when he was on cape and have been following him since getting drafted I am not quite sure what would put Teel above him, but still great to see and very exciting.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Jan 18, 2024 14:52:01 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024 As someone who fell in love with Rushing’s game when he was on cape and have been following him since getting drafted I am not quite sure what would put Teel above him, but still great to see and very exciting. I loved Rushing and wanted the Red Sox to draft him in 2022, but I think there is a very material defensive gap between he and Teel which is likely why they’re ranked how they are.
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Post by ephus on Jan 18, 2024 14:55:34 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 catching prospects: 1. Ethan Salas, Padres (2025) 2. Samuel Basallo, Orioles (2025) 3. Jeferson Quero, Brewers (2024) 4. Harry Ford, Mariners (2025) 5. Kyle Teel, Red Sox (2025)
6. Dalton Rushing, Dodgers (2025) 7. Blake Mitchell, Royals (2027) 8. Moises Ballesteros, Cubs (2026) 9. Edgar Quero, White Sox (2025) 10. Diego Cartaya, Dodgers (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-catching-prospects-for-2024Cool. Cool. Now do it by Pop Time.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jan 18, 2024 15:04:48 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2. Make of that what you will. The Sox got 14.6 fWAR from their 2018 rotation for less than $70 million
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 18, 2024 15:30:06 GMT -5
The Red Sox got 7.2 WAR from homegrown pitchers in 2023. In 2018 they got 3.8. In 2007 they got 3.6 (mostly Papelbon). In 2004 they got 2.2. Make of that what you will. The Sox got 14.6 fWAR from their 2018 rotation for less than $70 million Yeah a lot of different ways to cut this. About what? 3.5 to 4 WAR were from FA pitchers in the 2018 team?
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Post by rhswanzey on Jan 18, 2024 16:25:06 GMT -5
The Sox got 14.6 fWAR from their 2018 rotation for less than $70 million Yeah a lot of different ways to cut this. About what? 3.5 to 4 WAR were from FA pitchers in the 2018 team? But none of them were homegrown, unless we’re being very generous and granting them ERod. If we don’t need homegrown pitching to win World Series, which is one inference you could draw from the quoted post about homegrown pitcher WAR on the WS teams, then you need to do exceptionally well with $/WAR via trade and free agency. Under $5 million/WAR was incredible at the time. This analysis put the $/WAR of 2+ WAR players at $9.3m (2018), $7.8m (2019), $9.5m (2020), ***first COVID offseason***, $8.5m (2022). Whether by trade - requiring some homegrown pitching to acquire - or free agency - banking on being able to get championship caliber pitching production for barely more than half of what it costs on average, without integrating any high end homegrown pitching onto the MLB roster, is an awful bet.
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Post by bishop on Jan 18, 2024 17:00:17 GMT -5
Yeah a lot of different ways to cut this. About what? 3.5 to 4 WAR were from FA pitchers in the 2018 team? But none of them were homegrown, unless we’re being very generous and granting them ERod. If we don’t need homegrown pitching to win World Series, which is one inference you could draw from the quoted post about homegrown pitcher WAR on the WS teams, then you need to do exceptionally well with $/WAR via trade and free agency. Under $5 million/WAR was incredible at the time. This analysis put the $/WAR of 2+ WAR players at $9.3m (2018), $7.8m (2019), $9.5m (2020), ***first COVID offseason***, $8.5m (2022). Whether by trade - requiring some homegrown pitching to acquire - or free agency - banking on being able to get championship caliber pitching production for barely more than half of what it costs on average, without integrating any high end homegrown pitching onto the MLB roster, is an awful bet. Kutter Crawford put up as much WAR in 2023 as Porcello and Price (or anyone not named Chris Sale) did in 2018. Bello put up more than Nathan Eovaldi. The inference I draw is we probably already have a couple competent homegrown starters in our rotation, they're just not rated as such because they weren't elite prospects and haven't had time to build up a track record yet.
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