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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 7:30:38 GMT -5
First Top 100 list of the season is out. BP101:
Anthony - 8 Mayer - 32 Teel - 47 Rafaela -59 Bleis - 102-111 (ie 10 that just missed)
Lower on Mayer than I expect most rankings to be and perhaps higher on Teel so an unusual smaller gap between Mayer-Teel than Anthony-Mayer. They've also been really high on Anthony which factors in there as well.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 16, 2024 9:05:11 GMT -5
Does seem a tad low on Mayer but kind of splitting hairs from ranked 20-25 to 32. Guessing they dinged him for his production at AA when he was battling his shoulder injury and probably shouldn't have been playing. Doesn't change my outlook on him, not yet anyway. We'll see how he does in AA with a healthy start.
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Jan 16, 2024 9:41:13 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59.
I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere.
RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability).
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 16, 2024 10:50:18 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). Middle of last year when we were making bold predictions, I think I said he'd be consensus top 50 by now. I see very reasonable reasons for him not to be right now, but high defensive ceiling at up to 2 critical positions and trick-or-treat bat is still a solid major leaguer. 60s and 70s seems pretty reasonable to me knowing he has ceiling to be more than that.
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Post by orion09 on Jan 16, 2024 10:59:34 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit.
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alnipper
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Post by alnipper on Jan 16, 2024 11:32:24 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. Rafaela has even more value for his high level of defensive flexibility as well.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 16, 2024 11:50:18 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80.
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Post by orion09 on Jan 16, 2024 12:10:15 GMT -5
I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Myles Straw in 2022 was second in MLB with 15.8 Def Runs in CF, posted a 67 wRC+, and had 2.1 fWAR in 596 PA. TBF, he did have some positive baserunning value as well. The same year, Jose Siri had 11.2 Def Runs in CF and a 75 wRC+. He only got 325 PA, and still put up 1.9 fWAR. So he had a slightly higher wRC+, but would have been at 3.5 WAR over 600 PA.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 16, 2024 12:16:52 GMT -5
This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Myles Straw in 2022 was second in MLB with 15.8 Def Runs in CF, posted a 67 wRC+, and had 2.1 fWAR in 596 PA. The same year, Jose Siri had a 75 wRC+ and 11.2 Def Runs, and put up 1.9 fWAR, but only in 325 PA (so he would actually be at 3.5 WAR over a full season). Straw and Varsho that year had nearly double the dWAR of the next qualified CFs. Straw also had the second most baserunning value in baseball despite the poor hitting. So yeah if Rafaela is the best outfielder in baseball by a wide margin, and one of the league's best baserunners, if he puts up a 60 wRC+ he could be almost a 2 win guy. I'm not yet comfortable assuming his defensive and baserunning floors are that high.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 16, 2024 12:18:44 GMT -5
I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Manny Margot: 90 wRC+ Michael A. Taylor: 82 wRC+ JBJ: 82 wRC+
All these guys are excellent centerfielders who have been right at 2 WAR/600 PAs for their careers. So yeah, looks like an 80-something wRC+ is what Rafaela needs to be a 2 WAR player, if his defensive performance matches the hype.
Kiermaier might be a ceiling: 4.1 WAR/600 PA, 98 wRC+, and the best OAA/DRS totals of the bunch
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Post by orion09 on Jan 16, 2024 12:25:12 GMT -5
Myles Straw in 2022 was second in MLB with 15.8 Def Runs in CF, posted a 67 wRC+, and had 2.1 fWAR in 596 PA. The same year, Jose Siri had a 75 wRC+ and 11.2 Def Runs, and put up 1.9 fWAR, but only in 325 PA (so he would actually be at 3.5 WAR over a full season). Straw and Varsho that year had nearly double the dWAR of the next qualified CFs. Straw also had the second most baserunning value in baseball despite the poor hitting. So yeah if Rafaela is the best outfielder in baseball by a wide margin, and one of the league's best baserunners, if he puts up a 60 wRC+ he could be almost a 2 win guy. I'm not yet comfortable assuming his defensive and baserunning floors are that high. I mean, he’s been advertised as “immediately becomes the top defensive CF in baseball when he’s called up.” If his defense is at that level, or close to it - ie a top 3ish defensive CF - then he’ll put up 10-20 Def Runs. I’m assuming he’ll have at least some positive baserunning value, because he’s got plus speed. But yeah, I was being a little facetious - his actual technical floor is lower than 2 WAR, because he might not hit even as much as Sandy Leon and might not be a truly elite defensive CF. But he could also hit better than 60 wRC+ and put up plus or elite defense, and easily put up 3 WAR or so. So there are a variety of paths to a 2 WAR season. I’m just making the point that the bar is really low offensively to be an MLB regular if you’re a plus or plus plus defender.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 14:23:58 GMT -5
I mean, even if he hits for a Sandy Leon-esque 60 wRC+, his defense in CF gives him like a 2 WAR floor as a full-time player. He’s a major leaguer as long as he can hit at least a little bit. This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Varsho doesn't meet your criteria as he had 817 innings in LF and only 462.1 in CF in 2023. He'd probably be at ~2.8 fWAR if he played exclusively CF. I'd estimate ~70-75 wRC+ for a full-time 2 fWAR CFer with Varsho's defense exclusively in CF.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 14:26:13 GMT -5
I think the most interesting element of the BP list is that they still have Rafaela at 59. I like him as a prospect, but we discuss his (very real and obvious) developmental challenges so frequently, that maybe some of us (myself included) are overcorrecting a bit in terms of our evaluation. I assumed he'd be an honorable mention on most lists, or maybe in the back 10-20 names on a few lists. 59 is higher than I expected to see him, anywhere. RE Mayer: I could see him going anywhere from the mid teens to 50. The main mitigating factor folks will point to (his struggles in AA being due to playing through an injury) underscore a separate concern for Mayer (durability). Keep in mind, the national publications have been consistently higher on Rafaela and he's coming off a strong year offensively in AAA.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 16, 2024 14:31:28 GMT -5
This isn't really true. Dalton Varsho led the league in Fangraphs def. WAR among qualified primary CF's, and had an 85 wRC+ and put up 2.1 WAR. A 60 wRC+ would not be good enough for Rafaela to be a full time player, he probably needs to get to at least 80. Varsho doesn't meet your criteria as he had 817 innings in LF and only 462.1 in CF in 2023. He'd probably be at ~2.8 fWAR if he played exclusively CF. I'd estimate ~70-75 wRC+ for a full-time 2 fWAR CFer with Varsho's defense exclusively in CF. I used the Fangraphs filter for "primary position" here, good catch though, not sure why they list him as CF rather than LF for this purpose.
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Post by rhswanzey on Jan 16, 2024 19:20:08 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy. Yes, I thought the move Teel up bits were the most encouraging parts of the podcast. Otoh, the statements around Mayer and Anthony probably being top 25 (the probably is my recollection) came off a bit lukewarm imo. Mayer coming off a down year and already slipping on their end of season list caps some of the ranking upside for both of them. They'll be closer to 25 than 10 it seems which is lower than where Mayer had been. A couple other things from the Handbook: Drohan came in at 25 in a poor White Sox farm with 40/Medium grade. He would have barely made the Sox Top 30. BA is really down on him and doesn't see that as much of a loss. In fact, Slaten has the same 40/Medium grade making that an essentially even rule 5 "trade". And I suspect that many will be disappointed by their farm system ranking of 13 and the idea that relative to other systems it got worse last year. 2019 - 30 2020 - 22 2021 - 21 2022 - 11 2023 - 10 2024 - 13 In BA's opinion, Bloom turned a bad system into an above average one that had seemed to stall at that level. And actually this is very interesting. I hear it repeated that Bloom took over a team with the worst farm system in the game and that 2019 30th ranking is used as a conversation ender. But these rankings come out in Jan and essentially cover the previous year. So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So in reality his track record of improving the farm - at least in the eyes of BA - is taking the #22 system up to #13. Is that that big of a deal? I looked at the other teams that were in the high 20s in 2019 and all but one had a year as good or better than the Sox showings under Bloom. Regression to the mean and high picks from finishing in last place will drive most teams higher in these rankings. Bloom got credit on his way out for having built out the analytics department and modernizing organizational infrastructure. But we don’t know what that looks like and can’t evaluate based off of it. Ultimately, it’s challenging to evaluate executive performance, isn’t it? There are bottom line results, as well as trade/draft history and farm system rankings. Some of what we evaluate is evaluated with the benefit of hindsight; all of it had multiple people involved. The podcast made good points about that during the POBO/GM search as it pertains to draft classes. I’m not sure we can assume the organization would have behaved radically differently over the previous four years with a different top executive in place. How would draft strategy or international free agency have been handled differently?
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 16, 2024 20:56:25 GMT -5
So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So what's the date on the rankings? Because there was a pretty significant but unpopular trade in January 2020 that boosted the Red Sox farm system rankings. For what it's worth, MLB.com had the Red Sox ranked 25th after the addition of Downs, and they had Downs (44th) ranked higher than Casas (77th). They're probably 29th without that trade. So yeah, he took them from at or near the bottom to upper mid-tier. And BA is lower on the current Red Sox system than other publications.
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Post by ephus on Jan 16, 2024 21:03:02 GMT -5
Count me among those who are tickled that BA thinks the Red Sox system is 13th best. This is all 100% because of the lack of potential top-of-the rotation arms in the system. But let Perales and Wickerman have strong summers, while Jedixson takes a step forward and Dalvinson looks the part in the DSL and that narrative turns from one of "lack of high end" to "incredible depth" and friends, it'll make it all the more delicious when they are top 5 systems in October. Let's go!
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jan 16, 2024 21:06:31 GMT -5
So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So what's the date on the rankings? Because there was a pretty significant but unpopular trade in January 2020 that boosted the Red Sox farm system rankings. For what it's worth, MLB.com had the Red Sox ranked 25th after the addition of Downs, and they had Downs (44th) ranked higher than Casas (77th). They're probably 29th without that trade. So yeah, he took them from at or near the bottom to upper mid-tier. And BA is lower on the current Red Sox system than other publications. The Handbook goes to the publisher before Christmas. The Betts trade didn't have anything to do with that ranking.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 16, 2024 22:09:59 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy. Yes, I thought the move Teel up bits were the most encouraging parts of the podcast. Otoh, the statements around Mayer and Anthony probably being top 25 (the probably is my recollection) came off a bit lukewarm imo. Mayer coming off a down year and already slipping on their end of season list caps some of the ranking upside for both of them. They'll be closer to 25 than 10 it seems which is lower than where Mayer had been. A couple other things from the Handbook: Drohan came in at 25 in a poor White Sox farm with 40/Medium grade. He would have barely made the Sox Top 30. BA is really down on him and doesn't see that as much of a loss. In fact, Slaten has the same 40/Medium grade making that an essentially even rule 5 "trade". And I suspect that many will be disappointed by their farm system ranking of 13 and the idea that relative to other systems it got worse last year. 2019 - 30 2020 - 22 2021 - 21 2022 - 11 2023 - 10 2024 - 13 In BA's opinion, Bloom turned a bad system into an above average one that had seemed to stall at that level. And actually this is very interesting. I hear it repeated that Bloom took over a team with the worst farm system in the game and that 2019 30th ranking is used as a conversation ender. But these rankings come out in Jan and essentially cover the previous year. So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So in reality his track record of improving the farm - at least in the eyes of BA - is taking the #22 system up to #13. Is that that big of a deal? I looked at the other teams that were in the high 20s in 2019 and all but one had a year as good or better than the Sox showings under Bloom. Regression to the mean and high picks from finishing in last place will drive most teams higher in these rankings. The farm ranking thing is weird to me because BA had them 5th in the mid season update. Is it different people who do these rankings or what happened there?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 17, 2024 8:53:40 GMT -5
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Post by levi on Jan 17, 2024 10:04:57 GMT -5
Cespedes, Abreu, Bleis, Gonzalez, and Fitts received at least 1 vote from the BA prospect team…notably absent…Yorke
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 17, 2024 13:20:22 GMT -5
Seems about right to me with Bleis basically rightfully being right outside the top 100 as a wild card who could be top 50 by end of year
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Post by bluechip on Jan 17, 2024 13:48:27 GMT -5
Seems about right to me with Bleis basically rightfully being right outside the top 100 as a wild card who could be top 50 by end of year Bleis has so much risk and upside that he could be never talked about again or in the discussion as the next superstar.
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Post by asm19 on Jan 17, 2024 14:04:16 GMT -5
Wasn't sure if this made sense to put here in this thread specifically, but found this kind of fascinating:
Not sure if there's really a way to track this aside from poring through old SP rankings, but is this widest gap between pitching and position player prospect value/rankings in recent memory?
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 17, 2024 14:23:27 GMT -5
Has baseball America's team rankings come out? That tweet said BA had them at 5 but another post I saw had them listed at 13 for 2024?
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