nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Dec 19, 2023 9:16:49 GMT -5
The Yankees, who had only one 50 FV prospect on fangraphs' 2023 updated list, and who have traded away a bunch of prospects this offseason, now somehow have six 50 FV or better prospects on fangraphs' new list. They're gonna have like a top 5 farm system ranking.
Apparently Spencer Jones striking out 29% of the time with a 114 wRC+ in A+ ball as a college draftee is a glaringly positive thing, but I don’t think so.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 19, 2023 9:43:49 GMT -5
Having Austin Wells #2 in the system is wild. Everson Peireira #17??
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 19, 2023 14:32:33 GMT -5
The current MLB.com top 100 has Mayer 11, Roman 35, Ceddanne 72, and Teel 82. Law had that group higher in July.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 19, 2023 16:59:41 GMT -5
The current MLB.com top 100 has Mayer 11, Roman 35, Ceddanne 72, and Teel 82. Law had that group higher in July. They haven't updated their list yet, I don't think.
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Post by soxin8 on Dec 19, 2023 18:15:45 GMT -5
The current MLB.com top 100 has Mayer 11, Roman 35, Ceddanne 72, and Teel 82. Law had that group higher in July. They haven't updated their list yet, I don't think. I thought Roman would have been higher so that makes sense.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 11, 2024 19:08:59 GMT -5
/photo/1
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 12, 2024 8:29:13 GMT -5
List of underrated farm systems: - half of all the farm systems
- ...
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2024 10:34:19 GMT -5
List of underrated farm systems: - half of all the farm systems
- ...
It's a strange list when you look at it too, The Red Sox for example appear to me to be ranked a top 10 just about across the board from prospect ranking sites with at least one having them as high as top 5. So they're somehow underrated? Same can be said about the Mets, they reeled in a good amount of top 100-150 guys at the deadline and already had a pretty good farm. I won't pretend to know much about some of the other farms listed there. But hey I still like reading that of the executives polled 11% say the Sox farm is underrated right now so I'll take it.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
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Post by nomar on Jan 12, 2024 10:39:15 GMT -5
The Red Sox also received votes for best farm system, which I’d say for this board might be the most meaningful nugget there.
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Post by 0ap0 on Jan 12, 2024 11:01:02 GMT -5
The Red Sox also received votes for best farm system, which I’d say for this board might be the most meaningful nugget there. Yeah, the graphic and presentation are an odd choice for a survey with some useful observations. Personally, I read these particular numbers as saying "Interviewed execs largely in agreement about rankings of farm systems. Nearly 90% think Red Sox no better than upper middle of the pack."
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2024 11:14:20 GMT -5
The Red Sox also received votes for best farm system, which I’d say for this board might be the most meaningful nugget there. Yeah, the graphic and presentation are an odd choice for a survey with some useful observations. Personally, I read these particular numbers as saying "Interviewed execs largely in agreement about rankings of farm systems. Nearly 90% think Red Sox no better than upper middle of the pack." Or some of them are using BA's farm system ratings as their basis for who is overrated/underrated and so they don't think the Red Sox are underrated because they are already ranked as near the top of the pack.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2024 11:17:07 GMT -5
Yeah, the graphic and presentation are an odd choice for a survey with some useful observations. Personally, I read these particular numbers as saying "Interviewed execs largely in agreement about rankings of farm systems. Nearly 90% think Red Sox no better than upper middle of the pack." Or some of them are using BA's farm system ratings as their basis for who is overrated/underrated and so they don't think the Red Sox are underrated because they are already ranked as near the top of the pack. This is more along the lines of how I'm reading into it, not that it matters I suppose. Far as I can tell most of the prospect ranking sites have Sox as a top 10 farm, with at least one in Fangraph's I believe having them top 5. Not really much room there to be classified as "underrated", but who knows what their metric is for determining underrated in this poll was.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 12, 2024 11:25:27 GMT -5
Or some of them are using BA's farm system ratings as their basis for who is overrated/underrated and so they don't think the Red Sox are underrated because they are already ranked as near the top of the pack. This is more along the lines of how I'm reading into it, not that it matters I suppose. Far as I can tell most of the prospect ranking sites have Sox as a top 10 farm, with at least one in Fangraph's I believe having them top 5. Not really much room there to be classified as "underrated", but who knows what their metric is for determining underrated in this poll was. FG has them 2nd, BA 5th, ESPN 14th, MLB 16th
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Post by chaimtime on Jan 12, 2024 11:29:02 GMT -5
Gonna guess there are some people who have heard the “no pitching, therefore mediocre farm” noise and (correctly, in my opinion) think that’s total bs.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 12, 2024 11:29:25 GMT -5
This is more along the lines of how I'm reading into it, not that it matters I suppose. Far as I can tell most of the prospect ranking sites have Sox as a top 10 farm, with at least one in Fangraph's I believe having them top 5. Not really much room there to be classified as "underrated", but who knows what their metric is for determining underrated in this poll was. FG has them 2nd, BA 5th, ESPN 14th, MLB 16thBeing that the poll was done by MLB pipeline/MLB.com or it appears to be anyway, that would make sense how the executives might say their farm is underrated. Assuming the execs were going off MLB Pipeline's rankings anyway.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Jan 12, 2024 12:03:29 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy.
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Post by ephus on Jan 12, 2024 12:07:47 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy. Oh, man and when Bleis comes to camp healthy and rakes; and the world discovers Kristian Campbell. Chefs kiss my friend.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 12, 2024 19:22:19 GMT -5
BA Top 10 lead off this thread and now we have the rest of the top 30 (BA digital Handbook came today):
11. Fitts 12. Zanetello 13. Meidroth 14. Garcia 15. Hickey 16. Romero 17. Castro 18. Monegeo 19. Paulino 20. Hamilton 21. Jordan 22. Anderson 23. Arias 24. Murphy 25. Dobbins 26. Dastardly 27. Slater 28. Brannon 29. Rodriguez Cruz 30. Mata
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 12, 2024 20:09:37 GMT -5
does Bastardo=Dastardly?
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Post by soxin8 on Jan 12, 2024 21:50:11 GMT -5
BA Top 10 lead off this thread and now we have the rest of the top 30 (BA digital Handbook came today): 11. Fitts 12. Zanetello 13. Meidroth 14. Garcia 15. Hickey 16. Romero 17. Castro 18. Monegeo 19. Paulino 20. Hamilton 21. Jordan 22. Anderson 23. Arias 24. Murphy 25. Dobbins 26. Dastardly 27. Slater 28. Brannon 29. Rodriguez Cruz 30. Mata Very close to the SP top 30. It looks like only Arias and Brannon replacing Hoppe and Alcantara who were 29 and 30. Agreeing on 28 out of 30 seems remarkable.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 12, 2024 22:18:15 GMT -5
Can BA be sued for plagiarism ?
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 12, 2024 22:41:44 GMT -5
Can BA be sued for plagiarism ? Call Bill Ackman as soon as his divorce is finalized.
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jan 13, 2024 11:24:09 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy. Yes, I thought the move Teel up bits were the most encouraging parts of the podcast. Otoh, the statements around Mayer and Anthony probably being top 25 (the probably is my recollection) came off a bit lukewarm imo. Mayer coming off a down year and already slipping on their end of season list caps some of the ranking upside for both of them. They'll be closer to 25 than 10 it seems which is lower than where Mayer had been. A couple other things from the Handbook: Drohan came in at 25 in a poor White Sox farm with 40/Medium grade. He would have barely made the Sox Top 30. BA is really down on him and doesn't see that as much of a loss. In fact, Slaten has the same 40/Medium grade making that an essentially even rule 5 "trade". And I suspect that many will be disappointed by their farm system ranking of 13 and the idea that relative to other systems it got worse last year. 2019 - 30 2020 - 22 2021 - 21 2022 - 11 2023 - 10 2024 - 13 In BA's opinion, Bloom turned a bad system into an above average one that had seemed to stall at that level. And actually this is very interesting. I hear it repeated that Bloom took over a team with the worst farm system in the game and that 2019 30th ranking is used as a conversation ender. But these rankings come out in Jan and essentially cover the previous year. So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So in reality his track record of improving the farm - at least in the eyes of BA - is taking the #22 system up to #13. Is that that big of a deal? I looked at the other teams that were in the high 20s in 2019 and all but one had a year as good or better than the Sox showings under Bloom. Regression to the mean and high picks from finishing in last place will drive most teams higher in these rankings.
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Post by incandenza on Jan 13, 2024 15:32:30 GMT -5
BA podcast with Speier today said Mayer and Anthony are going to end up Top 25 prospects, and in circulating their preliminary Top 100 list around to teams, Teel is a consistent "move him up" guy. ...And I suspect that many will be disappointed by their farm system ranking of 13 and the idea that relative to other systems it got worse last year. 2019 - 30 2020 - 22 2021 - 21 2022 - 11 2023 - 10 2024 - 13 In BA's opinion, Bloom turned a bad system into an above average one that had seemed to stall at that level. And actually this is very interesting. I hear it repeated that Bloom took over a team with the worst farm system in the game and that 2019 30th ranking is used as a conversation ender. But these rankings come out in Jan and essentially cover the previous year. So when Bloom was hired in the fall of 2019 the farm he took over was really the one that ranked #22 in Jan of 2020. I'm not going to take the time to look it up, but I don't think Bloom made any deals in that time to improve the farm did he? So in reality his track record of improving the farm - at least in the eyes of BA - is taking the #22 system up to #13. Is that that big of a deal? I looked at the other teams that were in the high 20s in 2019 and all but one had a year as good or better than the Sox showings under Bloom. Regression to the mean and high picks from finishing in last place will drive most teams higher in these rankings. From the soxprospects ranking history, their top 10 in April 2019 was:
Chavis Darwinzon Casas Dalbec
Houck Groome A. Flores Chatham Feltman Mata
In April 2020 (excluding Downs at #2, which wouldn't have been reflected on the BA list I assume) it was:
Casas Mata Groome Jimenez Dalbec Duran Houck Song Chatham Ward
Two things that come to mind looking at that are 1) you have to parse things rather finely to see the farm system as substantially better in 2020 (pre-Betts trade) than 2019, and 2) there are still a couple of solid major leaguers on the 2019 list in Houck and Casas. I wonder if that 30th-ranked farm system overperformed with that yield, or if it's just that even a really bad farm system will typically produce a couple future MLBers?
In general, the system at the 2015 high water mark was clearly more productive than at the 2019 nadir, but I feel like both cohorts regressed to the mean somewhat, with the 2015 group underperforming expectations a little and the 2019 group slightly overperforming.
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Post by texs31 on Jan 13, 2024 15:35:08 GMT -5
More to the point, did my auto correct just provide a new nickname?? Yes. That's Bastardo
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