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2023-2024 National Rankings (offseason)
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 19, 2024 10:49:53 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 1B prospects: 1. Xavier Isaac, Rays (2026) 2. Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (2024) 3. Nolan Schanuel, Angels (2024) 4. Abimelec Ortiz, Rangers (2025) 5. Tyler Locklear, Mariners (2024) 6. Matt Mervis, Cubs (2024) 7. Blaze Jordan, Red Sox (2025)
8. Nathan Martorella, Padres (2025) 9. Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (2024) 10. Haydn McGeary, Cubs (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-first-base-prospects-for-2024
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Post by bojacksoxfan on Jan 19, 2024 16:29:53 GMT -5
BA published minor league exit velocities for their top 100 prospects. Always hard to put these types of data into context, but amongst the top 100 prospects the Sox quartet have middling to poor exit velocities.
Ramon Anthony - 89.7 (27th) Cedanne Rafela - 89.1 (32nd) Marcelo Mayer - 88.9 (33rd) Kyle Teel - 82.9 (67th out of 68)
I had assumed Anthony would be higher, but that's probably pretty good for his age anyway.
Teel's ability to impact the ball will be important to watch as he moves into his first full season. A low 80s exit velocity will be a pretty strong cap on his offensive upside. I'm not sure if Savant calculates EV in the same way that whoever is the BA source did, but 82.9 mph would slot in between Jake Fraley (84.6, 257th) and Esteu82ry Ruiz (82.7, 258th and dead last).
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 19, 2024 16:48:18 GMT -5
BA published minor league exit velocities for their top 100 prospects. Always hard to put these types of data into context, but amongst the top 100 prospects the Sox quartet have middling to poor exit velocities. Ramon Anthony - 89.7 (27th) Cedanne Rafela - 89.1 (32nd) Marcelo Mayer - 88.9 (33rd) Kyle Teel - 82.9 (67th out of 68) I had assumed Anthony would be higher, but that's probably pretty good for his age anyway. Teel's ability to impact the ball will be important to watch as he moves into his first full season. A low 80s exit velocity will be a pretty strong cap on his offensive upside. I'm not sure if Savant calculates EV in the same way that whoever is the BA source did, but 82.9 mph would slot in between Jake Fraley (84.6, 257th) and Esteu82ry Ruiz (82.7, 258th and dead last). Given the small sample size for Teel (114 PA; 70 events) I wouldn't worry too much yet. That's a GREAT sign for Rafaela. There had previously been reports of below-average exit velocities, but 89.1 would place him as above-average for MLB (~88mph), which is a fair bit better than he performed in his own MLB SSS (85.5 in 86 PA; 53 events). Keep in mind, they may be average, but that's average among the best prospects in all of baseball.
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Post by ephus on Jan 19, 2024 16:55:18 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 1B prospects: 1. Xavier Isaac, Rays (2026) 2. Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (2024) 3. Nolan Schanuel, Angels (2024) 4. Abimelec Ortiz, Rangers (2025) 5. Tyler Locklear, Mariners (2024) 6. Matt Mervis, Cubs (2024) 7. Blaze Jordan, Red Sox (2025)
8. Nathan Martorella, Padres (2025) 9. Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (2024) 10. Haydn McGeary, Cubs (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-first-base-prospects-for-2024Bats R Positional flexibility. I'm ready.
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Post by bluechip on Jan 19, 2024 20:03:03 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline's top 10 1B prospects: 1. Xavier Isaac, Rays (2026) 2. Kyle Manzardo, Guardians (2024) 3. Nolan Schanuel, Angels (2024) 4. Abimelec Ortiz, Rangers (2025) 5. Tyler Locklear, Mariners (2024) 6. Matt Mervis, Cubs (2024) 7. Blaze Jordan, Red Sox (2025)
8. Nathan Martorella, Padres (2025) 9. Spencer Horwitz, Blue Jays (2024) 10. Haydn McGeary, Cubs (2025) www.mlb.com/news/top-first-base-prospects-for-2024He is also Baseball America’s 8th best first base prospect.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2024 21:36:23 GMT -5
Being a top 10 first base prospect is like being a beauty finalist in a fat girl beauty contest,
Still, I have hopes for Blaze to put it all together and be a part of the Sox future. Both Devers and Casas bat left.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 20, 2024 2:51:05 GMT -5
Being a top 10 first base prospect is like being a beauty finalist in a fat girl beauty contest, Still, I have hopes for Blaze to put it all together and be a part of the Sox future. Both Devers and Casas bat left. Really??? Fat shaming??? Those I know are very beautiful. What’s the problem??? Hope to see you soon blaze.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jan 20, 2024 7:00:54 GMT -5
Being a top 10 first base prospect is like being a beauty finalist in a fat girl beauty contest, Still, I have hopes for Blaze to put it all together and be a part of the Sox future. Both Devers and Casas bat left. Really??? Fat shaming??? Those I know are very beautiful. What’s the problem??? Hope to see you soon blaze. Being a top ten first base prospect is like being a beauty contest finalist in a contest between people who make fun of heavy people on the internet.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 20, 2024 11:13:29 GMT -5
The technical term is "damning with faint praise." No groups were harmed in the making of this comment.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 20, 2024 12:17:00 GMT -5
Yeah a lot of different ways to cut this. About what? 3.5 to 4 WAR were from FA pitchers in the 2018 team? But none of them were homegrown, unless we’re being very generous and granting them ERod. If we don’t need homegrown pitching to win World Series, which is one inference you could draw from the quoted post about homegrown pitcher WAR on the WS teams, then you need to do exceptionally well with $/WAR via trade and free agency. Under $5 million/WAR was incredible at the time. This analysis put the $/WAR of 2+ WAR players at $9.3m (2018), $7.8m (2019), $9.5m (2020), ***first COVID offseason***, $8.5m (2022). Whether by trade - requiring some homegrown pitching to acquire - or free agency - banking on being able to get championship caliber pitching production for barely more than half of what it costs on average, without integrating any high end homegrown pitching onto the MLB roster, is an awful bet. Why not count E-Rod?, the point about homegrown is not that you actually developed them but that you actually have them on your major league roster and are cost controlled how they get their is irrelevant.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 20, 2024 12:24:15 GMT -5
Really??? Fat shaming??? Those I know are very beautiful. What’s the problem??? Hope to see you soon blaze. Being a top ten first base prospect is like being a beauty contest finalist in a contest between people who make fun of heavy people on the internet. Maybe it's a generational and/or gender thing, my wife could not believe the things she'd sometime hear my friends/etc say to each other but our verbal arrows at each other was a form of guidance, tough love and it mostly worked. People can be nicer but they can also develop thicker skin too. Often we need to hear the things we don't want to hear even when it hurts our feelings.
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Post by pappyman99 on Jan 20, 2024 12:58:19 GMT -5
Yes the all the hypothetical fat women in the above saying will all be extremely hurt by this….
I like Blaze I think he can be a top 100 prospect with a good offensive year given his age and level
He’d become a viable and valuable trade piece as well
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 20, 2024 13:01:51 GMT -5
Please knock off all the non-rankings meta stuff.
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gerry
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Post by gerry on Jan 20, 2024 14:16:01 GMT -5
Being a top ten first base prospect is like being a beauty contest finalist in a contest between people who make fun of heavy people on the internet. Maybe it's a generational and/or gender thing, my wife could not believe the things she'd sometime hear my friends/etc say to each other but our verbal arrows at each other was a form of guidance, tough love and it mostly worked. People can be nicer but they can also develop thicker skin too. Often we need to hear the things we don't want to hear even when it hurts our feelings. I understand your point. I grew up in the 40’s and 50’s where everyone was a target, locker room talk was indeed skin toughening. But in the larger community such insults were pretty cruel and the resultant pain was constant, divisive and pervasive. Though used for humor it was never really humorous but always hurtful. Shaming is a millennia old thing, like slavery or flogging that still crops up in surprising places. Fortunately, our culture has become more caring and accepting (with some notable exceptions) and is moving away from shaming. People here are intelligent, as is baseball and this site. My goal was to point that out.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 24, 2024 10:21:35 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 24, 2024 10:23:03 GMT -5
I remember being afraid the Red Sox were going to get Lawlar in the Mayer draft. Splitting silly hairs I suppose
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Post by manfred on Jan 24, 2024 10:32:14 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageIs Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating?
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 24, 2024 10:50:16 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageIs Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating? If health was really holding him back last year, and he's healthy this year, I'd say it's probably like a 30% chance still (talking "arrival" not cup of coffee or best injury fill-in). So seems wrong to me.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 24, 2024 10:54:14 GMT -5
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 24, 2024 11:04:05 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageIs Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating? I think something akin to Gunnar Henderson's 2022 is not unrealistic. At 21 he started in double A, was promoted to triple A in June and then called up for the last month of the season. Mayer also already has 43 games at AA whereas Henderson had only 5 entering his age 21 season.
He would need to tear up the minors the way Henderson did for this to happen, obviously.
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Post by ephus on Jan 24, 2024 11:08:58 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageIs Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating? Definitely made my eyes pop a bit.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jan 24, 2024 11:16:56 GMT -5
If Mayer stays healthy and gets back on the track he was on at High A ball he should be able to make AAA by July/August at which point it's not a stretch to think that he would be the 2nd best option in the whole org to play SS at the ML level behind only Story. If things go the way we hope with Mayer then come August/Sept David Hamilton should not be in his way for a promotion to the MLB team if Story happens to get hurt. Or he may just absolutely go off and just force his way up, that can't be discounted either. I don't think 2024 should be looked at as a long shot to see Mayer.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jan 24, 2024 11:18:37 GMT -5
Is Mayer’s ETA realistically 2024? I have a hard time seeing him even as end-season call-up, but maybe I’m underestimating? If health was really holding him back last year, and he's healthy this year, I'd say it's probably like a 30% chance still (talking "arrival" not cup of coffee or best injury fill-in). So seems wrong to me. Well sure, if you don't include a cup of coffee or an injury fill-in I guess you could see it as "wrong", but I think they're also quite literally projecting when that player will first play a Major League game. With a good season I'd call it probable that Mayer would get at least a little time in September if the Sox aren't in the playoff hunt.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 24, 2024 18:08:19 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageSteak or Lobstah
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 25, 2024 8:46:07 GMT -5
MLB Pipeline shortstop top 10: 1. Jackson Holliday, Orioles (2024) 2. Colson Montgomery, White Sox (2024) 3. Jordan Lawlar, D-backs (2024) 4. Jackson Merrill, Padres (2024) 5. Marcelo Mayer, Red Sox (2024)
6. Brooks Lee, Twins (2024) 7. Carson Williams, Rays (2025) 8. Adael Amador, Rockies (2025) 9. Cole Young, Mariners (2025) 10. Marco Luciano, Giants (2024) www.mlb.com/news/top-shortstop-prospects-for-2024?t=mlb-pipeline-coverageMy lord this is an awesome list.
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