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2024 Pre-season analyses - ZiPs projections, etc.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 29, 2023 21:34:07 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/One sentence intro "The Red Sox are a middling team in a division that is utterly merciless to middling teams." summary paragraph "The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry."
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Post by wOBA Fett on Nov 29, 2023 22:28:32 GMT -5
One thing I always laugh at is when a player is called a "second division" player.
As if the Red Sox haven't become a second division team.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 1, 2023 8:55:14 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/One sentence intro "The Red Sox are a middling team in a division that is utterly merciless to middling teams." summary paragraph "The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry." How are the Yankees going to get better than us over the winter? Their payroll is a mess. We should be able to improve more in free agency than them.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 1, 2023 9:04:01 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/One sentence intro "The Red Sox are a middling team in a division that is utterly merciless to middling teams." summary paragraph "The Red Sox look like an 80–86 win team or so. That kind of team can surprise, and with the coins flipping a bit different last year, they could have made a real wild card run. The Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rays are a clear tier above them, though, and when all is said and done by winter’s end, I think the Yankees may be as well. But that last question is a tale for another ZiPS entry." How are the Yankees going to get better than us over the winter? Their payroll is a mess. We should be able to improve more in free agency than them. I saw that sentence and kind of glossed over it originally but yes at 2nd look I don't really see where the writer is coming with that thought process. If they have the Sox and Yanks relatively similar in their projections as their rosters currently stand and the Sox theoretically should have more money to spend this offseason how would the Yankees manage to have a better projection than the Sox at the end of the offseason?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 1, 2023 11:06:01 GMT -5
Are you all asking rhetorically? The answer is because there's a chance that the Yankees will decide that their path back to being good is by just blowing through the tax threshold and accepting the consequences.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 1, 2023 11:17:28 GMT -5
The Yankees finished ahead of the Red Sox last season despite pretty much everything going wrong for them, and as of right now fangraphs' Depth Charts has them as about 5 wins better for 2024. They also have some pretty obvious upgrades they can make (LF, 3B) whereas the Red Sox' situation is murkier. Doesn't seem like much of a mystery.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Dec 1, 2023 21:05:03 GMT -5
The Yankees finished ahead of the Red Sox last season despite pretty much everything going wrong for them, and as of right now fangraphs' Depth Charts has them as about 5 wins better for 2024. They also have some pretty obvious upgrades they can make (LF, 3B) whereas the Red Sox' situation is murkier. Doesn't seem like much of a mystery. The 2023 season final record was quite arbitrary as the Red Sox played a lot of rookies down the stretch. I really think Cora did not give a shit whether the Red Sox won those games or not!!!! Most teams play to win, whereas, it really looked sometimes like Cora was trying to get Bloom fired….. (just my opinion)
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 2, 2023 13:17:41 GMT -5
Another thing that stood out to me re the ZiPS projections: Casas OPS+ projection is 127, which seems reasonable give that it's his career average so far and is pretty solid. But even with that OPS+ his WAR projection is only 1.9. Even if he hits his 80th percentile outcome, which would be a 150 OPS+, it still comes out to only 3.2 WAR. It is wild how much the position you play can cap your overall value. If you want to stand out at 1B and get into that 5+ WAR range, you probably have to run >160 OPS+, which would make you a top 5-10 hitter in baseball.
On the other hand, #1 comp was Boog Powell, who had a pretty nice career.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 2, 2023 14:07:21 GMT -5
Another thing that stood out to me re the ZiPS projections: Casas OPS+ projection is 127, which seems reasonable give that it's his career average so far and is pretty solid. But even with that OPS+ his WAR projection is only 1.9. Even if he hits his 80th percentile outcome, which would be a 150 OPS+, it still comes out to only 3.2 WAR. It is wild how much the position you play can cap your overall value. If you want to stand out at 1B and get into that 5+ WAR range, you probably have to run >160 OPS+, which would make you a top 5-10 hitter in baseball. On the other hand, #1 comp was Boog Powell, who had a pretty nice career. The math isn’t totally true, Freeman and Goldschmidt have both had 4.9 fWAR seasons with 136 wRC+‘s. Though they’re both better base runners than Casas is likely to be, possibly better defenders too but if he improves in those areas his WAR projections will take a big leap even if the offense is “only” in the 130-140 range
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Post by sarasoxer on Dec 2, 2023 14:20:52 GMT -5
The Yankees finished ahead of the Red Sox last season despite pretty much everything going wrong for them, and as of right now fangraphs' Depth Charts has them as about 5 wins better for 2024. They also have some pretty obvious upgrades they can make (LF, 3B) whereas the Red Sox' situation is murkier. Doesn't seem like much of a mystery. From what I read, the Yanks are about the only serious contender for Soto. That guy is young, hits for average, great power (probably 40+ hrs. with Yanks) and has an incredible eye....Boggsian OBP....just what the Yankees have lacked... If that trade goes thru, they will be very tough with that pitching...See Ya. I'd rate them favorites pending...
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Post by asm19 on Dec 10, 2023 8:55:40 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure if it made sense to derail the Free Agency thread with this, so made a separate thread - but Mods feel free to close/move if appropriate. Post-Shohei signing, this is what Fangraphs Depth Charts projects for total WAR by team. With the fairly obvious caveats that 1) it is still very, very early, and 2) WAR projections don’t always correlate to MLB wins, here is where everything stands as of this morning: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=TeamNL Braves - 53.5 Dodgers - 45.6 Phillies - 42.7 Cardinals - 42 Mets - 38.2 Diamondbacks - 36.8 Padres - 36.7 Brewers - 35.6 Cubs - 34.3 Marlins - 33.5 Reds - 32.7 Giants - 32.7 Pirates, Nationals, Rockies - sub 30 WAR AL Astros - 47.3 Yankees - 47.2 Rays - 46.4* (THEY INCLUDE WANDER FRANCO) Blue Jays - 42.6 Twins - 41.7 Orioles - 39.9 Rangers - 39.9 Mariners - 37.8 Guardians - 37 Red Sox - 35.1 Tigers - 32.7 Angels - 32.1 Royals, Athletics, White Sox - sub-30 WAR Related to the Sox specifically - 4 AL East teams currently project as top 6 teams. But also - some of the teams immediately ahead of them don’t seem to be planning to be super aggressive making moves? Bridging a 5ish WAR gap seems doable?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 11, 2023 8:25:26 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2023 8:54:14 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure if it made sense to derail the Free Agency thread with this, so made a separate thread - but Mods feel free to close/move if appropriate. Post-Shohei signing, this is what Fangraphs Depth Charts projects for total WAR by team. With the fairly obvious caveats that 1) it is still very, very early, and 2) WAR projections don’t always correlate to MLB wins, here is where everything stands as of this morning: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=TeamNL Braves - 53.5 Dodgers - 45.6 Phillies - 42.7 Cardinals - 42 Mets - 38.2 Diamondbacks - 36.8 Padres - 36.7 Brewers - 35.6 Cubs - 34.3 Marlins - 33.5 Reds - 32.7 Giants - 32.7 Pirates, Nationals, Rockies - sub 30 WAR AL Astros - 47.3 Yankees - 47.2 Rays - 46.4* (THEY INCLUDE WANDER FRANCO) Blue Jays - 42.6 Twins - 41.7 Orioles - 39.9 Rangers - 39.9 Mariners - 37.8 Guardians - 37 Red Sox - 35.1 Tigers - 32.7 Angels - 32.1 Royals, Athletics, White Sox - sub-30 WAR Related to the Sox specifically - 4 AL East teams currently project as top 6 teams. But also - some of the teams immediately ahead of them don’t seem to be planning to be super aggressive making moves? Bridging a 5ish WAR gap seems doable? Well, my detailed comment on this just got eaten by the merging of the thread and I'm not going to write out the whole thing again, but the long and the short of it is that, because the Red Sox are already decent at almost every spot on the roster, it's hard for them to improve that much through the options available *over what they currently have*. I can see them adding 4.5-5 WAR through free agency, which would just about pull them even with the Rangers and Orioles, but of course every other competitive team will be trying to add value as well. It's hard for me to see a path to their being actually favorites for the playoffs.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 11, 2023 9:00:43 GMT -5
Wasn’t sure if it made sense to derail the Free Agency thread with this, so made a separate thread - but Mods feel free to close/move if appropriate. Post-Shohei signing, this is what Fangraphs Depth Charts projects for total WAR by team. With the fairly obvious caveats that 1) it is still very, very early, and 2) WAR projections don’t always correlate to MLB wins, here is where everything stands as of this morning: www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=TeamNL Braves - 53.5 Dodgers - 45.6 Phillies - 42.7 Cardinals - 42 Mets - 38.2 Diamondbacks - 36.8 Padres - 36.7 Brewers - 35.6 Cubs - 34.3 Marlins - 33.5 Reds - 32.7 Giants - 32.7 Pirates, Nationals, Rockies - sub 30 WAR AL Astros - 47.3 Yankees - 47.2 Rays - 46.4* (THEY INCLUDE WANDER FRANCO) Blue Jays - 42.6 Twins - 41.7 Orioles - 39.9 Rangers - 39.9 Mariners - 37.8 Guardians - 37 Red Sox - 35.1 Tigers - 32.7 Angels - 32.1 Royals, Athletics, White Sox - sub-30 WAR Related to the Sox specifically - 4 AL East teams currently project as top 6 teams. But also - some of the teams immediately ahead of them don’t seem to be planning to be super aggressive making moves? Bridging a 5ish WAR gap seems doable? Well, my detailed comment on this just got eaten by the merging of the thread and I'm not going to write out the whole thing again, but the long and the short of it is that, because the Red Sox are already decent at almost every spot on the roster, it's hard for them to improve that much through the options available *over what they currently have*. I can see them adding 4.5-5 WAR through free agency, which would just about pull them even with the Rangers and Orioles, but of course every other competitive team will be trying to add value as well. It's hard for me to see a path to their being actually favorites for the playoffs. This has me wondering if a substantial trade isn't in the cards for this offseason since as you point out it's hard to really project them jumping into a favorable position for a playoff run via just FA signings alone. Not going to predict what said trade might entail but if they want to really push their projected WAR total up to where the other perceived pre-season contenders stand it'd take a trade that is going to really sting the farm system meaning one of Anthony/Mayer and then some.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2023 9:08:53 GMT -5
Well, my detailed comment on this just got eaten by the merging of the thread and I'm not going to write out the whole thing again, but the long and the short of it is that, because the Red Sox are already decent at almost every spot on the roster, it's hard for them to improve that much through the options available *over what they currently have*. I can see them adding 4.5-5 WAR through free agency, which would just about pull them even with the Rangers and Orioles, but of course every other competitive team will be trying to add value as well. It's hard for me to see a path to their being actually favorites for the playoffs. This has me wondering if a substantial trade isn't in the cards for this offseason since as you point out it's hard to really project them jumping into a favorable position for a playoff run via just FA signings alone. Not going to predict what said trade might entail but if they want to really push their projected WAR total up to where the other perceived pre-season contenders stand it'd take a trade that is going to really sting the farm system meaning one of Anthony/Mayer and then some. The thing is, the same reason they will have a hard time adding wins through free agency is also an argument against making a big trade. Let's say they could trade for a 4 WAR player at RF or 2B, for instance. Their current options already give them ~2 WAR at those positions. So do you really want to give up Anthony or Mayer for a marginal gain of only two wins? Compare that with what the Yankees did in trading for Soto: a 6 win player who is displacing the barely replacement-level options the team had at LF.
I think this team is destined to be right where they were in 2021, 2022, and 2023: a true talent level of slightly better than a .500 team, where things have to break right for them to make the playoffs. That's not the end of the world; but it's also not a situation where I think it makes sense to borrow value from the future to bolster the present.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 11, 2023 9:18:12 GMT -5
This has me wondering if a substantial trade isn't in the cards for this offseason since as you point out it's hard to really project them jumping into a favorable position for a playoff run via just FA signings alone. Not going to predict what said trade might entail but if they want to really push their projected WAR total up to where the other perceived pre-season contenders stand it'd take a trade that is going to really sting the farm system meaning one of Anthony/Mayer and then some. The thing is, the same reason they will have a hard time adding wins through free agency is also an argument against making a big trade. Let's say they could trade for a 4 WAR player at RF or 2B, for instance. Their current options already give them ~2 WAR at those positions. So do you really want to give up Anthony or Mayer for a marginal gain of only two wins? Compare that with what the Yankees did in trading for Soto: a 6 win player who is displacing the barely replacement-level options the team had at LF.
I think this team is destined to be right where they were in 2021, 2022, and 2023: a true talent level of slightly better than a .500 team, where things have to break right for them to make the playoffs. That's not the end of the world; but it's also not a situation where I think it makes sense to borrow value from the future to bolster the present. I don't know, I'd still like to see them add a higher floor player for 2B. Get a 2.5 - 3 win guy and you might only improve the projection by 1 win, but it's not going to cost a lot and it raises the floor substantially. For the team to actually take the next step it's going to require something like 2 of Story/Devers/Yoshida/Casas to significantly outperform their projection, which I don't think is all that impossible, so fill the remaining roster well so that if that does happen you aren't getting your legs cut off by a blackhole at 2B.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 11, 2023 9:18:32 GMT -5
This has me wondering if a substantial trade isn't in the cards for this offseason since as you point out it's hard to really project them jumping into a favorable position for a playoff run via just FA signings alone. Not going to predict what said trade might entail but if they want to really push their projected WAR total up to where the other perceived pre-season contenders stand it'd take a trade that is going to really sting the farm system meaning one of Anthony/Mayer and then some. The thing is, the same reason they will have a hard time adding wins through free agency is also an argument against making a big trade. Let's say they could trade for a 4 WAR player at RF or 2B, for instance. Their current options already give them ~2 WAR at those positions. So do you really want to give up Anthony or Mayer for a marginal gain of only two wins? Compare that with what the Yankees did in trading for Soto: a 6 win player who is displacing the barely replacement-level options the team had at LF.
I think this team is destined to be right where they were in 2021, 2022, and 2023: a true talent level of slightly better than a .500 team, where things have to break right for them to make the playoffs. That's not the end of the world; but it's also not a situation where I think it makes sense to borrow value from the future to bolster the present.
Oh I agree, I don't want to see them deal anyone in their top 3 of the farm as I think 2023 is probably another "bridge" year for the reasons you outlined but something tells me they didn't fire Bloom with plans on having another one of those types of seasons. I am a little worried a trade is coming at some point this offseason that we'll say sure that'll help out in 2024 but hurt in the long term.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 11, 2023 9:31:45 GMT -5
The thing is, the same reason they will have a hard time adding wins through free agency is also an argument against making a big trade. Let's say they could trade for a 4 WAR player at RF or 2B, for instance. Their current options already give them ~2 WAR at those positions. So do you really want to give up Anthony or Mayer for a marginal gain of only two wins? Compare that with what the Yankees did in trading for Soto: a 6 win player who is displacing the barely replacement-level options the team had at LF.
I think this team is destined to be right where they were in 2021, 2022, and 2023: a true talent level of slightly better than a .500 team, where things have to break right for them to make the playoffs. That's not the end of the world; but it's also not a situation where I think it makes sense to borrow value from the future to bolster the present. I don't know, I'd still like to see them add a higher floor player for 2B. Get a 2.5 - 3 win guy and you might only improve the projection by 1 win, but it's not going to cost a lot and it raises the floor substantially. For the team to actually take the next step it's going to require something like 2 of Story/Devers/Yoshida/Casas to significantly outperform their projection, which I don't think is all that impossible, so fill the remaining roster well so that if that does happen you aren't getting your legs cut off by a blackhole at 2B. Yeah, I agree with all of this. In regards to the trade, I was just referring to the idea of trading one of their top prospects. The thing is, the same reason they will have a hard time adding wins through free agency is also an argument against making a big trade. Let's say they could trade for a 4 WAR player at RF or 2B, for instance. Their current options already give them ~2 WAR at those positions. So do you really want to give up Anthony or Mayer for a marginal gain of only two wins? Compare that with what the Yankees did in trading for Soto: a 6 win player who is displacing the barely replacement-level options the team had at LF.
I think this team is destined to be right where they were in 2021, 2022, and 2023: a true talent level of slightly better than a .500 team, where things have to break right for them to make the playoffs. That's not the end of the world; but it's also not a situation where I think it makes sense to borrow value from the future to bolster the present.
Oh I agree, I don't want to see them deal anyone in their top 3 of the farm as I think 2023 is probably another "bridge" year for the reasons you outlined but something tells me they didn't fire Bloom with plans on having another one of those types of seasons. I am a little worried a trade is coming at some point this offseason that we'll say sure that'll help out in 2024 but hurt in the long term. It's a bit funny that Breslow couldn't possibly have had a more Bloomian offseason so far if he had tried:
- traded an averagish second baseman for a reliever with options and lots of years of control - traded an averagish right fielder for a pile of Winckowskis - paid a discount rate in a trade for an injury-prone outfielder with intriguing upside potential
Most of the offseason is still to play out, obviously, and maybe Breslow will pull the trigger on that Big Move that it was Bloom's supposed failure to make. But the consistency of Breslow's approach to Bloom's so far, I think, just speaks to the sort of structural situation the Red Sox have been in for a few years: good enough to be decent but needing to build up the farm and lacking the pieces where a big trade would make sense.
(One corollary of this is that I'm with you in not wanting to trade any of their top prospects. Another corollary is that the replacement of Bloom with Breslow seems rather pointless - unless the goal was to put in place a guy who would be looking to trade top prospects at this point, in which case it was worse than pointless.)
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Post by asm19 on Dec 11, 2023 10:53:34 GMT -5
Most of the offseason is still to play out, obviously, and maybe Breslow will pull the trigger on that Big Move that it was Bloom's supposed failure to make. But the consistency of Breslow's approach to Bloom's so far, I think, just speaks to the sort of structural situation the Red Sox have been in for a few years: good enough to be decent but needing to build up the farm and lacking the pieces where a big trade would make sense.
(One corollary of this is that I'm with you in not wanting to trade any of their top prospects. Another corollary is that the replacement of Bloom with Breslow seems rather pointless - unless the goal was to put in place a guy who would be looking to trade top prospects at this point, in which case it was worse than pointless.)
It might even be just a more opportunistic version of Bloom is what they felt they needed. As you noted earlier in the thread, they're set up to be in that "kinda in the playoff hunt, but need to jump a few teams after the trade deadline" spot they've been in for two straight years. Obviously that's not a situation where you want to trade your absolute best prospects out of desperation - but if imagine if you traded the #6 and #11 prospects ( per SoxProspects rankings) over the last two years at the deadline: July 2023: #6 Shane Drohan #11 Brandon Walter July 2022: #6 Bryan Mata #11 Connor Seabold Shane Drohan got picked in Rule 5. Brandon Walter went from a starter prospect to a reliever. Mata got hurt and is now out of minor league options. Seabold was traded for a PTNBL and got released from the Rockies. Obviously we get the benefit of hindsight here - but there are going to be pieces every year you can trade to try to bridge a multi-game gap in the playoff standings that you're not going to get mad at yourself for moving. Chaim apparently never felt confident enough to do that - we'll see if Craig feels differently.
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 11, 2023 10:58:28 GMT -5
I feel like there are some false equivalents above
They traded a non-tender candidate for 6 years of control of what looks like an already effective reliever
He traded 1 year or RF control for 3 pitchers one who just slotted in to number 11 of a stronger farm
Benintendi, had 3 years of control left and was sold at an absolute and very apparent low point of his value
But agree the logic is the same, but Blooms downfall was his mlb rosters, lack of selling short - term assets at the deadline when we weren’t all that competive. And honestly didn’t avoid bad contracts all that much (Story / Yoshida)
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Post by asm19 on Dec 11, 2023 14:14:28 GMT -5
Rotation ProjectionsChris Sale: Steamer | ZIPS | 144 IP | 90 IP | 3.96 ERA | 4.30 ERA | 3.91 FIP | 3.98 FIP | 2.7 WAR | 1.7 WAR |
Brayan Bello: Steamer | ZIPS | 169 IP | 147.3 IP
| 4.27 ERA | 4.28 ERA
| 4.11 FIP | 4.03 FIP
| 2.5 WAR | 2.2 WAR |
Nick Pivetta Steamer | ZIPS | 170 IP | 132.7 IP
| 4.46 ERA | 4.55 ERA
| 4.33 FIP | 4.45 FIP | 2.1 WAR | 1.7 WAR |
Kutter Crawford Steamer | ZIPS | 137 IP | 106.3 IP
| 4.71 ERA | 4.49 ERA | 4.62 FIP | 4.20 FIP | 1.6 WAR | 1.4 WAR |
Tanner Houck Steamer | ZIPS | 132 IP | 103.3
| 4.28 ERA | 4.62 ERA | 4.16 FIP | 4.34 FIP | 1.7 WAR | 1.3 WAR |
If Yamamoto, Montgomery, or Snell were acquired, any one of them would slot in as the #1 starter according to the magic computer systems. ZIPS at least has Marcus Stroman superior to any current of the current options except Sale by a slight margin, while Giolito, Paxton, & Lugo would all come in around #3 here (slightly above Pivetta).
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 11, 2023 14:18:26 GMT -5
The Fangraphs depth chart standings have way too many wins. There's 1,000 WAR to go around every season by definition, so 33 is a .500 team. They're based on Steamer projections. Just eyeballing it, they're probably high on the league total by about 33%, so you can probably reduce individual Steamer projections by about that much.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 11, 2023 14:31:31 GMT -5
The Fangraphs depth chart standings have way too many wins. There's 1,000 WAR to go around every season by definition, so 33 is a .500 team. They're based on Steamer projections. Just eyeballing it, they're probably high on the league total by about 33%, so you can probably reduce individual Steamer projections by about that much. They have 1087 WAR in their DC calculations right now which would only be 8.7% too high, no?
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Post by pappyman99 on Dec 11, 2023 14:52:55 GMT -5
Seems premature to really do this until January when rosters are more set
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 11, 2023 15:27:55 GMT -5
The Fangraphs depth chart standings have way too many wins. There's 1,000 WAR to go around every season by definition, so 33 is a .500 team. They're based on Steamer projections. Just eyeballing it, they're probably high on the league total by about 33%, so you can probably reduce individual Steamer projections by about that much. They have 1087 WAR in their DC calculations right now which would only be 8.7% too high, no? That'd be right, although the WAR totals are gonna go up a bunch when all the free agents sign. I would guess Steamer is systematically around 15% high factoring that in
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