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2024 Pre-season analyses - ZiPs projections, etc.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 22, 2024 15:07:38 GMT -5
Right field - we come in at #17 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field/"After struggling during trials in 2021 and ’22, Duran reworked his swing and hit an impressive .295/.346/.482 (120 wRC+) last year. Arriving in mid-April, he covered center field after Adam Duvall broke his wrist, then split his time between center and left against righty starters between Duvall’s return and his own season-ending sprain of his left big toe in late August. While Durran homered just eight times and had a 5.3% barrel rate, he added 34 doubles, many of the hustle variety, aided by a 45.7% hard-hit rate and his 70-grade speed. He also went 24-for-26 in steals. His metrics in center field have been consistently awful, but if Ceddanne Rafaela is ready, Duran will mainly see time in right. Rafaela’s ascendance could come at Abreu’s expense. Promoted after Duran’s injury, the 24-year-old lefty hit .316/.388/.474 (135 wRC+) in 85 PA after batting .274/.391/.538 (130 wRC+) at Triple-A. He did strike out 27.1% of the time in the big leagues, so his small sample jibes with the prospect team’s description of a “40-hit, 50-power corner outfielder with a swing geared to get to all the pop.” He has above-average speed and defense in his favor as well. Refsnyder, a 32-year-old righty who fell off from a 146 wRC+ with 1.3 WAR to 93 with 0.2 WAR, will open the season on the IL due to a fractured left pinky toe. O’Neill, slated to be the regular left fielder, hasn’t played right since 2019 but could slot here sometimes."
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 22, 2024 15:09:14 GMT -5
DH - Red Sox at #6 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-designated-hitter/"The level of production Masataka Yoshida provided over the first four months of his first big league season is what the Red Sox are hoping to get throughout the 2024 campaign. If they do, Boston will boast one of the better designated hitters in the game. From April through July, the former Orix Buffalo slashed .304/.366/.481 with a dozen home runs and a 128 wRC+. Then he hit a wall — and not the 37-foot-high wall he was stationed in front of as the team’s left fielder. Unaccustomed to a more demanding schedule than he’d experienced in Japan, Yoshida cratered to an 88 wRC+ from August onward. Moving his lefty bat to a hit-only position, paired with improved conditioning and with a year of facing big league pitching under his belt, could potentially unlock a full season of impact performance. C.J. Cron, who was inked to free agent deal on March 3, was brought on board to punish southpaws. A prototypical built-for-Fenway right-handed slugger coming off an injury-compromised (lower back) campaign in Denver and Anaheim, Cron had averaged 28 home runs in the previous four non-pandemic seasons. He has a 1.033 OPS in 69 career plate appearances at his new home ballpark."
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 22, 2024 15:15:55 GMT -5
Right field - we come in at #17 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field/"After struggling during trials in 2021 and ’22, Duran reworked his swing and hit an impressive .295/.346/.482 (120 wRC+) last year. Arriving in mid-April, he covered center field after Adam Duvall broke his wrist, then split his time between center and left against righty starters between Duvall’s return and his own season-ending sprain of his left big toe in late August. While Durran homered just eight times and had a 5.3% barrel rate, he added 34 doubles, many of the hustle variety, aided by a 45.7% hard-hit rate and his 70-grade speed. He also went 24-for-26 in steals. His metrics in center field have been consistently awful, but if Ceddanne Rafaela is ready, Duran will mainly see time in right.Rafaela’s ascendance could come at Abreu’s expense. Promoted after Duran’s injury, the 24-year-old lefty hit .316/.388/.474 (135 wRC+) in 85 PA after batting .274/.391/.538 (130 wRC+) at Triple-A. He did strike out 27.1% of the time in the big leagues, so his small sample jibes with the prospect team’s description of a “40-hit, 50-power corner outfielder with a swing geared to get to all the pop.” He has above-average speed and defense in his favor as well. Refsnyder, a 32-year-old righty who fell off from a 146 wRC+ with 1.3 WAR to 93 with 0.2 WAR, will open the season on the IL due to a fractured left pinky toe. O’Neill, slated to be the regular left fielder, hasn’t played right since 2019 but could slot here sometimes." Maybe they should get someone to write these that knows what they are talking about because Duran will not see much time if any in RF this year.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 22, 2024 15:33:29 GMT -5
Right field - we come in at #17 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-right-field/"After struggling during trials in 2021 and ’22, Duran reworked his swing and hit an impressive .295/.346/.482 (120 wRC+) last year. Arriving in mid-April, he covered center field after Adam Duvall broke his wrist, then split his time between center and left against righty starters between Duvall’s return and his own season-ending sprain of his left big toe in late August. While Durran homered just eight times and had a 5.3% barrel rate, he added 34 doubles, many of the hustle variety, aided by a 45.7% hard-hit rate and his 70-grade speed. He also went 24-for-26 in steals. His metrics in center field have been consistently awful, but if Ceddanne Rafaela is ready, Duran will mainly see time in right.Rafaela’s ascendance could come at Abreu’s expense. Promoted after Duran’s injury, the 24-year-old lefty hit .316/.388/.474 (135 wRC+) in 85 PA after batting .274/.391/.538 (130 wRC+) at Triple-A. He did strike out 27.1% of the time in the big leagues, so his small sample jibes with the prospect team’s description of a “40-hit, 50-power corner outfielder with a swing geared to get to all the pop.” He has above-average speed and defense in his favor as well. Refsnyder, a 32-year-old righty who fell off from a 146 wRC+ with 1.3 WAR to 93 with 0.2 WAR, will open the season on the IL due to a fractured left pinky toe. O’Neill, slated to be the regular left fielder, hasn’t played right since 2019 but could slot here sometimes." Maybe they should get someone to write these that knows what they are talking about because Duran will not see much time if any in RF this year. This gets into why I think the team will be better than a lot of people expect. There are a lot of pieces to mix and match that a good manager can squeeze a lot of favorable matchups out of, but it’s not immediately obvious how playing time/positions are gonna shake out to someone who doesn’t follow the team closely. It’s easy to see the flaws in the roster, it takes some research to see the complimentary skill sets and how they might fit together.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 22, 2024 15:37:13 GMT -5
Maybe they should get someone to write these that knows what they are talking about because Duran will not see much time if any in RF this year. This gets into why I think the team will be better than a lot of people expect. There are a lot of pieces to mix and match that a good manager can squeeze a lot of favorable matchups out of, but it’s not immediately obvious how playing time/positions are gonna shake out to someone who doesn’t follow the team closely. It’s easy to see the flaws in the roster, it takes some research to see the complimentary skill sets and how they might fit together. I think offensively and defensively they'll be a solid enough squad, somewhere between average to above average with maybe even some possibility for more as you point out with mixing and matching. There's some interesting pieces on the roster I agree. As with every MLB squad though can they pitch well enough? I think there is enough upside to say yes it's possible but I'm not sure I'd bet on it yet and they're an injury or two away from potentially having a disastrous pitching staff.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 22, 2024 16:09:59 GMT -5
This gets into why I think the team will be better than a lot of people expect. There are a lot of pieces to mix and match that a good manager can squeeze a lot of favorable matchups out of, but it’s not immediately obvious how playing time/positions are gonna shake out to someone who doesn’t follow the team closely. It’s easy to see the flaws in the roster, it takes some research to see the complimentary skill sets and how they might fit together. I think offensively and defensively they'll be a solid enough squad, somewhere between average to above average with maybe even some possibility for more as you point out with mixing and matching. There's some interesting pieces on the roster I agree. As with every MLB squad though can they pitch well enough? I think there is enough upside to say yes it's possible but I'm not sure I'd bet on it yet and they're an injury or two away from potentially having a disastrous pitching staff. I just think that line of thinking is too worryful. Most teams are 2-3 injuries to starters away from a potentially disastrous rotation, nobody has 8 or 9 reliable starters laying around. If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert get hurt, the Mariners will have a tough season. If Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan get hurt, the Twins will have a tough season. If Gerrit Cole ends up needing TJ and Marcus Stroman gets hurt, the Yankees will have a tough season. If Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton get hurt, the Braves probably have the lineup to withstand it, but they’re gonna have a bad rotation. It is what it is. If everything else hits and they’re really just a reliable starter away from contention, they can afford one at the deadline. I would like another depth option, too, but I understand ownership and the FO not wanting to spend on an addition that isnt a clear upgrade on what they have.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 22, 2024 16:10:24 GMT -5
So - summarizing the position players rankings among all teams from Fangraphs as we are a week away
DH - 6th C - 27th 1st - 8th 2nd - 17th 3rd - 4th ss - 16th LF - 8th CF - 20th RF - 17th
Bullpen - 20th Starters - 20th
add them all up (position players) and divide by 9 - you get 13.7. which of course is a pretty meaningless stat. But it says pretty middle of the road. FWIW some of those assessments seem pretty far off. AT least we will finally get to see it start to play out soon.
If you include the pitchers - you get 14.8 - exactly middle of the road.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 22, 2024 17:00:45 GMT -5
I think offensively and defensively they'll be a solid enough squad, somewhere between average to above average with maybe even some possibility for more as you point out with mixing and matching. There's some interesting pieces on the roster I agree. As with every MLB squad though can they pitch well enough? I think there is enough upside to say yes it's possible but I'm not sure I'd bet on it yet and they're an injury or two away from potentially having a disastrous pitching staff. I just think that line of thinking is too worryful. Most teams are 2-3 injuries to starters away from a potentially disastrous rotation, nobody has 8 or 9 reliable starters laying around. If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert get hurt, the Mariners will have a tough season. If Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan get hurt, the Twins will have a tough season. If Gerrit Cole ends up needing TJ and Marcus Stroman gets hurt, the Yankees will have a tough season. If Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton get hurt, the Braves probably have the lineup to withstand it, but they’re gonna have a bad rotation. It is what it is. If everything else hits and they’re really just a reliable starter away from contention, they can afford one at the deadline. I would like another depth option, too, but I understand ownership and the FO not wanting to spend on an addition that isnt a clear upgrade on what they have. Thats a good point 2 weeks ago I'd have said yankees have a better rotation than sox then Cole got hurt and I think it may be a toss up. I suppose there are few if any teams that can sustain certain injuries especially to their rotation and not take a giant hit.
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Post by dcb26 on Mar 22, 2024 17:12:51 GMT -5
I think offensively and defensively they'll be a solid enough squad, somewhere between average to above average with maybe even some possibility for more as you point out with mixing and matching. There's some interesting pieces on the roster I agree. As with every MLB squad though can they pitch well enough? I think there is enough upside to say yes it's possible but I'm not sure I'd bet on it yet and they're an injury or two away from potentially having a disastrous pitching staff. I just think that line of thinking is too worryful. Most teams are 2-3 injuries to starters away from a potentially disastrous rotation, nobody has 8 or 9 reliable starters laying around. If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert get hurt, the Mariners will have a tough season. If Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan get hurt, the Twins will have a tough season. If Gerrit Cole ends up needing TJ and Marcus Stroman gets hurt, the Yankees will have a tough season. If Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton get hurt, the Braves probably have the lineup to withstand it, but they’re gonna have a bad rotation. It is what it is. If everything else hits and they’re really just a reliable starter away from contention, they can afford one at the deadline. I would like another depth option, too, but I understand ownership and the FO not wanting to spend on an addition that isnt a clear upgrade on what they have. I'm honestly not trying to be a jerk here, but do you have anything to back up this idea that recent contenders haven't had any better pitching depth than the Sox do this year? I believe otherwise but fully admit I'm too lazy to do any sort of deep dive and so don't have anything to back up my opinion other a couple of random examples from memory. For the hypotheticals you gave, yes, any team that loses it's two best pitchers is going to have a worse rotation, especially if at least one of them is a true ace type - but I think the Sox are pretty well screwed if they lose even their four or five starter at this point, and that to me points to a concerning lack of depth, if you want this team to compete.
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 22, 2024 18:09:38 GMT -5
I just think that line of thinking is too worryful. Most teams are 2-3 injuries to starters away from a potentially disastrous rotation, nobody has 8 or 9 reliable starters laying around. If George Kirby and Logan Gilbert get hurt, the Mariners will have a tough season. If Bailey Ober and Joe Ryan get hurt, the Twins will have a tough season. If Gerrit Cole ends up needing TJ and Marcus Stroman gets hurt, the Yankees will have a tough season. If Max Fried, Chris Sale, and Charlie Morton get hurt, the Braves probably have the lineup to withstand it, but they’re gonna have a bad rotation. It is what it is. If everything else hits and they’re really just a reliable starter away from contention, they can afford one at the deadline. I would like another depth option, too, but I understand ownership and the FO not wanting to spend on an addition that isnt a clear upgrade on what they have. I'm honestly not trying to be a jerk here, but do you have anything to back up this idea that recent contenders haven't had any better pitching depth than the Sox do this year? I believe otherwise but fully admit I'm too lazy to do any sort of deep dive and so don't have anything to back up my opinion other a couple of random examples from memory. For the hypotheticals you gave, yes, any team that loses it's two best pitchers is going to have a worse rotation, especially if at least one of them is a true ace type - but I think the Sox are pretty well screwed if they lose even their four or five starter at this point, and that to me points to a concerning lack of depth, if you want this team to compete. The Rays had 17 guys start games for them last year, and I’m pretty sure most people here would not be looking forward to Yonny Chirinos or Jalen Beeks starts. Taj Bradley was fourth on the team in innings and he basically had Houck’s line but slightly worse. Didn’t stop them from winning 99 games. Dane Dunning led the Rangers in innings. The Diamondbacks had three starters all year. The Braves traded for Sale because they didn’t have enough rotation depth last year. The Dodgers pieced together 66 starts from Tony Gonsolin, Michael Grove, Noah Syndergaard, Lance Lynn, and Emmet Sheehan. They gave up 212 earned runs in a combined 351.2 innings, good for a 5.43 ERA. Brandon Bielak and JP France, a 27 year old with -0.8 career bWAR and a 28 year old rookie drafted in the 14th round, respectively, saved the Astros’ season by giving them 215 innings of 3.8 ERA pitching. Every team has to deal with suboptimal starting pitching, sometimes you get lucky and end up with an unexpected hero, sometimes you go through half a dozen guys and they all suck. I’m certainly not saying it’s a good rotation, but starters 4-7 aren’t the problem. There just isn’t enough firepower at the top unless Bello takes a big step forward. That’s how most of those teams got around their lack of depth, they had Spencer Strider and Zac Gallen and Zach Eflin and Clayton Kershaw giving them elite production. More 3/4/5 types isn’t what this rotation needs, it needs an ace. Worrying about the seventh or eight starter on the depth chart when you don’t have an ace has never made sense to me.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 25, 2024 9:18:14 GMT -5
Bullpen comes in at #20 as per Fangraphs blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/"Boston has one of the most top-heavy bullpens in baseball. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin serve as the one-two punch, but we barely have the supporting cast above replacement level. That could be a problem for the Red Sox, in that they’re not implausible contenders, and a thin bullpen could come back to haunt them if they hit one of their more unlikely upside scenarios. Now entering his late 30s, Jansen is what he is at this point: a big dude who rides his cutter as much as he can. His mid-2010s peak is extremely far back in the rearview window, but he’s a solid second-tier closer. If he implodes, the dominoes could fall very quickly here. Chris Martin had a superlative 1.05 ERA in 2023, but if you’re on this website, you probably already have a healthy dose of skepticism about that continuing. Like Jansen, he’s way up there in age, such that decline becomes as significant a risk as injury does. Remember, Jansen and Martin’s projections already reflect the age risk, so if they keep it together for another season, the difference between them and the rest of the ‘pen could be even larger. The projections may be a little too low on Isiah Campbell, who was extremely effective for the Mariners last year. A lot of that is because he has a very short professional career — between the COVID year and continual elbow problems, he just hasn’t pitched all that much. If he remains healthy and continues to pitch well, his projections will likely improve fairly rapidly.' snipped at 4 paragraphs - there are two more.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 25, 2024 9:21:01 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 25, 2024 9:32:39 GMT -5
www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39785389/mlb-2024-season-preview-opening-day-power-rankings-playoff-odds-all-30-teamsESPN - first Power Ranking = we are at #19 Projected record: 79-83 (21% playoff odds | 0.4% World Series odds) What has changed most since we saw them last? What was supposed to be a "full-throttle" offseason was a whimper of a winter. The Red Sox again cut payroll -- about $20 million -- and emerged from the offseason with a roster arguably worse than the one that finished 78-84 in 2023. They traded Chris Sale for Vaughn Grissom and replaced Sale with Lucas Giolito, who is out for the season with an elbow injury. They watched James Paxton, Adam Duvall and Justin Turner leave in free agency. They traded Alex Verdugo to the Yankees. Their biggest free agent signings were Tyler O'Neill and Liam Hendriks, who won't pitch until around the trade deadline. The offseason further angered a fan base still reeling from the Mookie Betts trade four years ago. Apathy could be next in Boston. -- Castillo
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Post by puzzler on Mar 25, 2024 9:33:43 GMT -5
Bullpen comes in at #20 as per Fangraphs blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-bullpen-no-16-30/"Boston has one of the most top-heavy bullpens in baseball. Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin serve as the one-two punch, but we barely have the supporting cast above replacement level. That could be a problem for the Red Sox, in that they’re not implausible contenders, and a thin bullpen could come back to haunt them if they hit one of their more unlikely upside scenarios. Now entering his late 30s, Jansen is what he is at this point: a big dude who rides his cutter as much as he can. His mid-2010s peak is extremely far back in the rearview window, but he’s a solid second-tier closer. If he implodes, the dominoes could fall very quickly here. Chris Martin had a superlative 1.05 ERA in 2023, but if you’re on this website, you probably already have a healthy dose of skepticism about that continuing. Like Jansen, he’s way up there in age, such that decline becomes as significant a risk as injury does. Remember, Jansen and Martin’s projections already reflect the age risk, so if they keep it together for another season, the difference between them and the rest of the ‘pen could be even larger. The projections may be a little too low on Isiah Campbell, who was extremely effective for the Mariners last year. A lot of that is because he has a very short professional career — between the COVID year and continual elbow problems, he just hasn’t pitched all that much. If he remains healthy and continues to pitch well, his projections will likely improve fairly rapidly.' snipped at 4 paragraphs - there are two more. If I had to guess, I'd say that this is likely to be the place where fangraphs is most wrong about the 2024 Red Sox. Hopefully anyway. I just feel like the bullpen is going to be a real strength. I understand there are a lot of guys who don't have proven track records; but since relief pitching is so variable and unreliable anyway, it just doesn't seem like as a big a risk as position players or starting pitching.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 25, 2024 9:36:59 GMT -5
One thing about forgetting to upgrade the starting rotation is the knock-on effect of weakening the bullpen. If they could count on getting some number of innings from Whitlock and/or Houck the bullpen would look a lot better, but it's all hands on deck to round out an inexplicably thin rotation.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 25, 2024 9:38:42 GMT -5
I am collecting all of these preseason assessments because it will be fun to look back at them - they will be right, wrong, or somewhere in between (we have to play the games!). I think that this is a team with a big variability bar. No matter, it is the Red Sox, we are all fans - bring it on and we shall see.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 25, 2024 10:31:06 GMT -5
One thing about forgetting to upgrade the starting rotation is the knock-on effect of weakening the bullpen. If they could count on getting some number of innings from Whitlock and/or Houck the bullpen would look a lot better, but it's all hands on deck to round out an inexplicably thin rotation. That's a fine argument to knock the overall rating of the team or the starting pitching even though I disagree, but it's not really a good one to knock the ranking of the bullpen itself. I'd also argue that this bullpen will possibly be much deeper than last year's. This team got 217+ innings from Murphy (4.91 ERA), Bleier (5.28), Llovera (5.46), Jacques (5.06), Ort (6.26), Walter (6.26), Brasier (7.29), Garza (7.36). Those guys weren't worn down by too many innings individually. Weissert, Luetge, Hagenman and Booser all had pretty strong springs - I feel a lot more comfortable with them being callups over the aforementioned. I'm also excited to see what Slaten brings.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 25, 2024 10:48:22 GMT -5
Campbell had the best showing of all.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 25, 2024 11:41:08 GMT -5
One thing about forgetting to upgrade the starting rotation is the knock-on effect of weakening the bullpen. If they could count on getting some number of innings from Whitlock and/or Houck the bullpen would look a lot better, but it's all hands on deck to round out an inexplicably thin rotation. That's a fine argument to knock the overall rating of the team or the starting pitching even though I disagree, but it's not really a good one to knock the ranking of the bullpen itself. I'd also argue that this bullpen will possibly be much deeper than last year's. This team got 217+ innings from Murphy (4.91 ERA), Bleier (5.28), Llovera (5.46), Jacques (5.06), Ort (6.26), Walter (6.26), Brasier (7.29), Garza (7.36). Those guys weren't worn down by too many innings individually. Weissert, Luetge, Hagenman and Booser all had pretty strong springs - I feel a lot more comfortable with them being callups over the aforementioned. I'm also excited to see what Slaten brings. I don't really get your point here. If Whitlock were in the bullpen instead of the rotation the bullpen ranks at least 5 places higher. That seems like a pretty straightforward thing. I'm also not nearly as convinced that the depth names you mentioned are better than the 2023 players, but to each their own on that.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 25, 2024 11:55:01 GMT -5
That's a fine argument to knock the overall rating of the team or the starting pitching even though I disagree, but it's not really a good one to knock the ranking of the bullpen itself. I'd also argue that this bullpen will possibly be much deeper than last year's. This team got 217+ innings from Murphy (4.91 ERA), Bleier (5.28), Llovera (5.46), Jacques (5.06), Ort (6.26), Walter (6.26), Brasier (7.29), Garza (7.36). Those guys weren't worn down by too many innings individually. Weissert, Luetge, Hagenman and Booser all had pretty strong springs - I feel a lot more comfortable with them being callups over the aforementioned. I'm also excited to see what Slaten brings. I don't really get your point here. If Whitlock were in the bullpen instead of the rotation the bullpen ranks at least 5 places higher. That seems like a pretty straightforward thing. I'm also not nearly as convinced that the depth names you mentioned are better than the 2023 players, but to each their own on that. Based on what? Certainly not his 2023 performance. I guess, what you're saying is that he will only be good in the bullpen.
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 25, 2024 12:01:09 GMT -5
I don't really get your point here. If Whitlock were in the bullpen instead of the rotation the bullpen ranks at least 5 places higher. That seems like a pretty straightforward thing. I'm also not nearly as convinced that the depth names you mentioned are better than the 2023 players, but to each their own on that. Based on what? Certainly not his 2023 performance. I guess, what you're saying is that he will only be good in the bullpen. Based on his projections. He would project as something like .8-1 WAR as a reliever only. He would replace like 70 innings from guys projected for 0 WAR. The list is based on projections, and therefore (without yet seeing the top of the list) we can say with certainty they would rank at least 16th because they would be ahead of the teams listed 16-19, but in all likelihood they'd rank far higher than that. I'm also not exactly sure why you're saying his 2023 would affect this much, he was pretty good in 2023 too.
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Post by puzzler on Mar 25, 2024 12:16:21 GMT -5
Based on what? Certainly not his 2023 performance. I guess, what you're saying is that he will only be good in the bullpen. Based on his projections. He would project as something like .8-1 WAR as a reliever only. He would replace like 70 innings from guys projected for 0 WAR. The list is based on projections, and therefore (without yet seeing the top of the list) we can say with certainty they would rank at least 16th because they would be ahead of the teams listed 16-19, but in all likelihood they'd rank far higher than that. I'm also not exactly sure why you're saying his 2023 would affect this much, he was pretty good in 2023 too. Well I misread Incandeza's post; I read it as if they could count on Whitlock and Houck as starters that would help the bullpen by not getting worn down.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 26, 2024 10:29:02 GMT -5
Final Fangraphs pre-season ranking - starting pitching comes in at #20 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/"It’s easy to convince yourself that this is a solid rotation, even with Lucas Giolito’s absence making it a thin one. Bello looks like a mid-rotation mainstay after he markedly improved his command in 2023, and he’ll be in Boston for a long time after signing a six-year extension this winter. He’ll probably never run up huge strikeout totals, but his sinker/changeup approach leads to a ton of grounders and he’s not giving away free bases nearly as often as he used to. That’s a pitcher everyone would love to have in their rotation, though probably not as a number one on a playoff team. Maybe that’ll be Pivetta, then. His newfound sweeper turned him into a dominant force in the second half of the year. A lot of that work came in relief, but he made five starts in September and compiled a 2.37 ERA with matching peripherals. Not every pitcher can simply add a sweeper and become great, but it certainly seems like that might be the case with him. Any of Crawford, Houck, or Whitlock might be a nice complement to those top two. Heck, two or even three of them might be. Crawford’s cutter – delightful! – turned him into a menace last year, blowing away his previous major league results. Houck looked excellent before 2023 and is merely a bounce-back away from being a nice mid-rotation arm. Whitlock is right on the starter/reliever border for me, which explains his light innings projection (we have him down for 28 innings in relief). But the reason he’s on that borderline is because he’s capable of dominance, not because he’s flailing for relevance. The question isn’t whether he can blow the competition away; it’s whether he can do it multiple times through a lineup. There’s a lot to like in that group, but there’s no truly bankable arm. No one is projected for an ERA below 4.00, excluding Whitlock’s 3.99 split projection (he’s really good as a reliever). No one looks likely to turn in a dominant season, which means no one can pick up the slack if holes open up elsewhere. You can make a rotation out of all average guys, but not if one of them falters. That puts a ton of pressure on health and consistency. The more that Criswell and company see the field, the worse this will go. Winckowski is probably the class of that group, but it’s a thin bunch. This is a rotation crying out for an ace."
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Post by scottysmalls on Mar 26, 2024 11:03:54 GMT -5
Final Fangraphs pre-season ranking - starting pitching comes in at #20 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-starting-rotation-no-16-30/"It’s easy to convince yourself that this is a solid rotation, even with Lucas Giolito’s absence making it a thin one. Bello looks like a mid-rotation mainstay after he markedly improved his command in 2023, and he’ll be in Boston for a long time after signing a six-year extension this winter. He’ll probably never run up huge strikeout totals, but his sinker/changeup approach leads to a ton of grounders and he’s not giving away free bases nearly as often as he used to. That’s a pitcher everyone would love to have in their rotation, though probably not as a number one on a playoff team. Maybe that’ll be Pivetta, then. His newfound sweeper turned him into a dominant force in the second half of the year. A lot of that work came in relief, but he made five starts in September and compiled a 2.37 ERA with matching peripherals. Not every pitcher can simply add a sweeper and become great, but it certainly seems like that might be the case with him. Any of Crawford, Houck, or Whitlock might be a nice complement to those top two. Heck, two or even three of them might be. Crawford’s cutter – delightful! – turned him into a menace last year, blowing away his previous major league results. Houck looked excellent before 2023 and is merely a bounce-back away from being a nice mid-rotation arm. Whitlock is right on the starter/reliever border for me, which explains his light innings projection (we have him down for 28 innings in relief). But the reason he’s on that borderline is because he’s capable of dominance, not because he’s flailing for relevance. The question isn’t whether he can blow the competition away; it’s whether he can do it multiple times through a lineup. There’s a lot to like in that group, but there’s no truly bankable arm. No one is projected for an ERA below 4.00, excluding Whitlock’s 3.99 split projection (he’s really good as a reliever). No one looks likely to turn in a dominant season, which means no one can pick up the slack if holes open up elsewhere. You can make a rotation out of all average guys, but not if one of them falters. That puts a ton of pressure on health and consistency. The more that Criswell and company see the field, the worse this will go. Winckowski is probably the class of that group, but it’s a thin bunch. This is a rotation crying out for an ace." I don't know if this is an unfair criticism of the blurb or not (because honestly there's no way they could get this level of depth for every team), but it's not really a completely clear point to say a lot of Pivetta's work in the second half was in relief. He was basically pitching on a starter's schedule with a couple relief appearances mixed in.
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Post by incandenza on Mar 26, 2024 12:48:28 GMT -5
It's a strange team, in a fun way, in that every single starting pitcher, along with almost every position player, has a really exciting potential upside, and it is also very uncertain as to whether they will reach that upside. Very few stars; but a lot of guys who might turn into stars, and very few Eduardo Nunez/Kiké Hernandez/Martin Perez types who are just there to sort of fill out the roster. I can't remember any past iteration of the team that had that dynamic across the board the way this one does.
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