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2024 Pre-season analyses - ZiPs projections, etc.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 11, 2024 11:20:50 GMT -5
I don’t like suggesting people are arguing in bad faith but I’m pretty sure Guidas has said exactly this before and then like 5-10 people responded saying that no, the average is actually about 2 WAR and he ignored it then too. OK, this was my error. I was going off the FV = 2.5-3.5 to be an MLB Average player. But even with 2.0 fWAR, the original argument was the list + Devers = a team of MLB Average guys (minus Winckowski). It's not. It may be close. There are useful pieces here, and some guys with a lot of potential. Here's what I originally said: "Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better." And then I made an exception for Wong, though actually he + McGuire combine for 1.9 WAR in the ZiPS projection.
We now have a page of comments going through the numbers and I think this holds up. And the substantive point stands as well: this is not the best group of young players the Red Sox have had this century, but I think it is the broadest group of young average-or-better players. I think it snuck up on us a little bit because they just added Grissom in a trade and Abreu sort of came out of nowhere and Duran recovered after a rocky start, so it's not a cohort that we were following all the way through the minors; but it's a really solid floor to build on.
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Post by puzzler on Feb 11, 2024 11:26:32 GMT -5
I don’t like suggesting people are arguing in bad faith but I’m pretty sure Guidas has said exactly this before and then like 5-10 people responded saying that no, the average is actually about 2 WAR and he ignored it then too. OK, this was my error. I was going off the FV = 2.5-3.5 to be an MLB Average player. But even with 2.0 fWAR, the original argument was the list + Devers = a team of MLB Average guys (minus Winckowski). It's not. It may be close. There are useful pieces here, and some guys with a lot of potential. But, OK, I'll admit I botched the qualitative range for average MLB player and the threshold is 2.0 instead of 2.5. I screwed up. Point stands that we're being sold a message that, all the Sox need are a couple more guys in 1-3 years who'll be MLB average or slightly better and then... THEN they're going to load up on enough big ticket free agents to win the division!? OK, let's live in this world for a moment. From multiple reports, the organization's reputation with agents and players has fallen significantly in the last several years. So has their win totals. The cumulative effect is, when they do make that big free agent push for a couple or three stars to augment the controllable average talent, they will have to do what Texas and SD did a few years ago - set the market on these players/positions. And not just on one guy. Likely they will need 2-3 of these guys, and at least 1 if not 2 in the worst category for this kind of outlay of all - starting pitching. Pitchers break. With longterm, market-setting contracts, when they break, the deals look even more absurd than when they were executed. All that said, there is nothing from this ownership group since late 2019 to suggest they will set the market on any star. Maybe there'll be a complete about face, but right now I'm not seeing any indication - except Kevin Kennedy happy talk - this will occur. Unless we're back to believing that their front office is now/again/soon-to-be smarter than everyone else at finding undervalued talent, especially pitchers. That was the buzz when the last GM was hired. Gonna be a hard no on that one, too. I think the problem is that you're the one that's adding this part. I don't believe the Red Sox are ever going to 'load up on big ticket free agents'. I think they best you'll see them do is load up on one in a given year. I would suggest that if you're going to poo poo the young talent that has come up from the minors, you can make that argument without moving the goal posts to include an irrelevant point about big ticket free agents. Young guy they can lock up for 10 years - I could see that. $200 million on a 30 year old - I don't think we're going to see that again for a long, long time.
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Post by puzzler on Feb 11, 2024 11:30:53 GMT -5
OK, this was my error. I was going off the FV = 2.5-3.5 to be an MLB Average player. But even with 2.0 fWAR, the original argument was the list + Devers = a team of MLB Average guys (minus Winckowski). It's not. It may be close. There are useful pieces here, and some guys with a lot of potential. Here's what I originally said: "Winckowski is iffy and I'm double counting Rafaela, but other than that they can field an entire lineup and rotation solely with pre-arb guys + Devers, every one of them by projections more or less an average major leaguer or better." And then I made an exception for Wong, though actually he + McGuire combine for 1.9 WAR in the ZiPS projection.
We now have a page of comments going through the numbers and I think this holds up. And the substantive point stands as well: this is not the best group of young players the Red Sox have had this century, but I think it is the broadest group of young average-or-better players. I think it snuck up on us a little bit because they just added Grissom in a trade and Abreu sort of came out of nowhere and Duran recovered after a rocky start, so it's not a cohort that we were following all the way through the minors; but it's a really solid floor to build on.
And it's the kind of floor that is great if you do call up a 2.5-3.5 fWAR player - because it likely means you have some other young players that you can trade to find another 2.5-3.5 fWAR player. That's how the Braves did it, right? Had a bunch of good young players, traded a bunch of other good young players for Matt Olson and Sean Murphy and now voila...they're loaded with players on pretty friendly contracts for several years. The Red Sox probably won't do that well, but you never know.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 11, 2024 12:34:37 GMT -5
OK, this was my error. I was going off the FV = 2.5-3.5 to be an MLB Average player. But even with 2.0 fWAR, the original argument was the list + Devers = a team of MLB Average guys (minus Winckowski). It's not. It may be close. There are useful pieces here, and some guys with a lot of potential. But, OK, I'll admit I botched the qualitative range for average MLB player and the threshold is 2.0 instead of 2.5. I screwed up. Point stands that we're being sold a message that, all the Sox need are a couple more guys in 1-3 years who'll be MLB average or slightly better and then... THEN they're going to load up on enough big ticket free agents to win the division!? OK, let's live in this world for a moment. From multiple reports, the organization's reputation with agents and players has fallen significantly in the last several years. So has their win totals. The cumulative effect is, when they do make that big free agent push for a couple or three stars to augment the controllable average talent, they will have to do what Texas and SD did a few years ago - set the market on these players/positions. And not just on one guy. Likely they will need 2-3 of these guys, and at least 1 if not 2 in the worst category for this kind of outlay of all - starting pitching. Pitchers break. With longterm, market-setting contracts, when they break, the deals look even more absurd than when they were executed. All that said, there is nothing from this ownership group since late 2019 to suggest they will set the market on any star. Maybe there'll be a complete about face, but right now I'm not seeing any indication - except Kevin Kennedy happy talk - this will occur. Unless we're back to believing that their front office is now/again/soon-to-be smarter than everyone else at finding undervalued talent, especially pitchers. That was the buzz when the last GM was hired. Gonna be a hard no on that one, too. I think the problem is that you're the one that's adding this part. I don't believe the Red Sox are ever going to 'load up on big ticket free agents'. I think they best you'll see them do is load up on one in a given year. I would suggest that if you're going to poo poo the young talent that has come up from the minors, you can make that argument without moving the goal posts to include an irrelevant point about big ticket free agents. Young guy they can lock up for 10 years - I could see that. $200 million on a 30 year old - I don't think we're going to see that again for a long, long time. I'm not poo-pooing young talent. I want them all to succeed. But it is very unlikely to have a mostly homegrown team become a sustained playoff team. They will need augmentation, especially in the starting pitching area. This can come through trades, but while Breslow is new, I still find it questionable that they will trade a couple prospects from the top 1-5 in a package with another player (or two) for another team's controllable (2 more years) #1/2 starter. That leaves, free agents. That will mean going all in on a couple or three guys - if available. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for them to compete in the AL East. If the goal is to build a 90ish (88-90 depending on the year) win team to make sure you get to the playoffs, I'm good with that. But you'll still need a top starter or two to get you past the first round if you want to have a sustainable/perennial playoff team.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 11, 2024 16:27:34 GMT -5
I think the problem is that you're the one that's adding this part. I don't believe the Red Sox are ever going to 'load up on big ticket free agents'. I think they best you'll see them do is load up on one in a given year. I would suggest that if you're going to poo poo the young talent that has come up from the minors, you can make that argument without moving the goal posts to include an irrelevant point about big ticket free agents. Young guy they can lock up for 10 years - I could see that. $200 million on a 30 year old - I don't think we're going to see that again for a long, long time. I'm not poo-pooing young talent. I want them all to succeed. But it is very unlikely to have a mostly homegrown team become a sustained playoff team. They will need augmentation, especially in the starting pitching area. This can come through trades, but while Breslow is new, I still find it questionable that they will trade a couple prospects from the top 1-5 in a package with another player (or two) for another team's controllable (2 more years) #1/2 starter. That leaves, free agents. That will mean going all in on a couple or three guys - if available. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for them to compete in the AL East. If the goal is to build a 90ish (88-90 depending on the year) win team to make sure you get to the playoffs, I'm good with that. But you'll still need a top starter or two to get you past the first round if you want to have a sustainable/perennial playoff team. I would argue that if you want a sustained playoff team, the only way to do that is with a large share of homegrown players. Without that, you're not going to be able to add enough value in free agency to make the team consistently good.
Pitching will indeed need to improve if the Sox are going to make that happen, but really the only area that is lacking is the front of the rotation and they should have the cash and trade chips to address that going forward. If they don't, what are they going to do, run $150 million payrolls, let guys like Mayer and Anthony stay blocked in AAA rather than make a trade, and basically go full Producers on the Red Sox? That seems like an unreasonable amount of pessimism, and if we rule that out, it's pretty much inevitable that the pitching will be improved through signings and/or trades before too long. I mean, it's not like that money and prospect capital will go into the infield.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 12, 2024 11:06:19 GMT -5
I'm not poo-pooing young talent. I want them all to succeed. But it is very unlikely to have a mostly homegrown team become a sustained playoff team. They will need augmentation, especially in the starting pitching area. This can come through trades, but while Breslow is new, I still find it questionable that they will trade a couple prospects from the top 1-5 in a package with another player (or two) for another team's controllable (2 more years) #1/2 starter. That leaves, free agents. That will mean going all in on a couple or three guys - if available. Otherwise, it will be very difficult for them to compete in the AL East. If the goal is to build a 90ish (88-90 depending on the year) win team to make sure you get to the playoffs, I'm good with that. But you'll still need a top starter or two to get you past the first round if you want to have a sustainable/perennial playoff team. I would argue that if you want a sustained playoff team, the only way to do that is with a large share of homegrown players. Without that, you're not going to be able to add enough value in free agency to make the team consistently good. Pitching will indeed need to improve if the Sox are going to make that happen, but really the only area that is lacking is the front of the rotation and they should have the cash and trade chips to address that going forward. If they don't, what are they going to do, run $150 million payrolls, let guys like Mayer and Anthony stay blocked in AAA rather than make a trade, and basically go full Producers on the Red Sox? That seems like an unreasonable amount of pessimism, and if we rule that out, it's pretty much inevitable that the pitching will be improved through signings and/or trades before too long. I mean, it's not like that money and prospect capital will go into the infield.
I think we're on the same page with regard to prospects. My observations are less motivated by pessimism as they are by actions of the front office. I understand who is/was available this year, but there was also opportunity in the market last year. But mainly I'm frustrated because this off-season is essentially indiscernible from last off-season. The team really isn't demonstrably better in my opinion. It's like a premeditated punt. Again.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 15, 2024 10:32:25 GMT -5
Fangraphs' power rankings has the Red Sox ranked 10th in the majors but 8th by "team quality" (?) and projects them for 82 wins.
Sounds like a team it would be worth spending money to improve!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 15, 2024 11:37:55 GMT -5
Someone wrote up the difference between what the infield was worth last year, and the projection for this year and it was significant. Off the top of my head the team easily lost 5-6 games last season strictly from bad infield defense. There's no guarantee that they won't find a way to lose a few this year, but it does look more promising at this point.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 15, 2024 20:49:17 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 18, 2024 12:32:38 GMT -5
FanGraphs is starting their player assessments by position. Started with catchers - Wong is getting no respect at all. blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-catcher/Red Sox catchers ranked 27th. "Connor Wong floundered in his first full season in the majors, where his proclivity to whiff and chase kept his OBP below .290. And while his maximum exit velocities sat in premium territory, he clubbed just nine homers in 403 plate appearances, too often hitting the ball on the ground. Wong’s struggles will open up more playing time for backup Reese McGuire, who lacks Wong’s raw strength but makes more contact and is more defensively sure-handed. Roberto Pérez also figures to enter this playing time mix, especially if either Wong or McGuire fails to meet their offensive projections. Pérez, who signed a split contract this winter, is one of the most talented framers in baseball, but has played just 26 games across the past two years due to injuries, including a surgery to his throwing shoulder that ended his 2023 season just a week in. We have him projected as an emergency call-up, but he could play his way into a much larger role."
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Post by chaimtime on Mar 18, 2024 13:16:30 GMT -5
FanGraphs is starting their player assessments by position. Started with catchers - Wong is getting no respect at all. blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-catcher/Red Sox catchers ranked 27th. Connor Wong floundered in his first full season in the majors, where his proclivity to whiff and chase kept his OBP below .290. And while his maximum exit velocities sat in premium territory, he clubbed just nine homers in 403 plate appearances, too often hitting the ball on the ground. Wong’s struggles will open up more playing time for backup Reese McGuire, who lacks Wong’s raw strength but makes more contact and is more defensively sure-handed. Roberto Pérez also figures to enter this playing time mix, especially if either Wong or McGuire fails to meet their offensive projections. Pérez, who signed a split contract this winter, is one of the most talented framers in baseball, but has played just 26 games across the past two years due to injuries, including a surgery to his throwing shoulder that ended his 2023 season just a week in. We have him projected as an emergency call-up, but he could play his way into a much larger role. One thing worth mentioning about Wong is that he was going along pretty well until McGuire got hurt at the start of that brutal stretch where they had two off days from mid-June to the All Star break. Wong put up a 26 wRC+ with a 48% K rate from June 21 (when McGuire went down) until the All Star break. That stretch and his dismal September give me a little hope that he was gassed in those two cold stretches, and a healthy backup who can give him a rest from time to time will help him stay more consistent. He had a few very good stretches last year, when he was hot he really added some length to the lineup.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 19, 2024 10:50:16 GMT -5
First baseman. We do very well - #8. blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-first-base/"Casas entered last season at no. 29 on our Top 100 Prospects list and immediately face planted, hitting just .133/.283/.293 in March and April while striking out 29.2% of the time and making too much weak contact. The Red Sox could have packed the then 23-year-old first baseman off to Triple-A, but they stuck with him and were rewarded, as he posted a 145 wRC+ the rest of the way, finishing at .263/.367/.490 with 24 homers; his overall 129 wRC+ ranked eighth in the AL. Casas showed exceptional plate discipline and selectivity, chasing just 22.1% of pitches outside the zone, and he hit the ball hard, highlighted by a 13.1% barrel rate. His 25.1% strikeout rate and subpar defense are cause for some concern, but he’s already a middle-of-the-lineup threat and could develop into a star. The well-traveled Cron is bidding to make his sixth team in seven seasons but is coming off a dismal .248/.295/.434 (82 wRC+) showing in part-time duty with the Rockies and Angels. For a righty whose utility depends upon his ability to mash lefties, his 77 wRC+ in 266 PA against them over the past two seasons doesn’t bode well. Dalbec has regressed from his 25-homer 2021 season to the point that he spent most of last season at Triple-A; after fanning in 34.3% of the time in Worcester, he struck out in a majority of his 53 PA with the Red Sox, which, yikes. Refsnyder couldn’t replicate his hot 2022 showing last year, hitting for a 93 wRC+ in a career-high 243 PA."
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 19, 2024 21:38:45 GMT -5
Second base - we are #17. blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-second-base/"This is the ranking I disagree with the most. Grissom has the kind of game that feels tailor-made for Fenway, and I also think that having a consistent position and playing time will help with his defensive shortcomings. He showed plus power in the minors and makes a lot of aerial contact, two skills that will combine to produce a ton of wall-ball doubles and lofted homers. It’s not just a Fenway skill, either; Tropicana Field suits his swing well, though hopefully he’ll get some days off when the Sox visit Baltimore and its left field power trap. I think that the biggest legit question with Grissom is whether he can actually play second, but ZiPS’s defensive forecast thinks he’ll do passably well there, which is good enough for me. Or maybe I’m being a little unfair to our projections, because there’s one more important question: how soon he’ll be healthy. He’s going to miss Opening Day, which is why we have Valdez getting a substantial amount of run. Valdez is a solid utility infielder, but he’s not a first-division starter in the same way that I think Grissom is. The options behind him are break-glass-in-case-of-emergency, nothing more. This is the Grissom show, for better or worse."
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Post by Guidas on Mar 20, 2024 10:25:02 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 20, 2024 10:31:03 GMT -5
I don't take issue with him being outside of a top-50. Braxton Garrett ahead of him seems at least in the "reasonable people disagree" category. Referring to everyone south of a legit 2/3 as a JAG is nuts though.
EDIT: The way they've formulated these rankings, Bello is definitely not in the category 3 group: the six pitchers in that tier are Glasnow, Kirby, Gallen, Gausman, Snell, Castillo. And I think his risk is too high for the category 4 group in the way they've defined it, though there are guys listed there who I'd consider putting Bello ahead of.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Mar 20, 2024 10:44:11 GMT -5
Second base - we are #17. blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-second-base/"This is the ranking I disagree with the most. Grissom has the kind of game that feels tailor-made for Fenway, and I also think that having a consistent position and playing time will help with his defensive shortcomings. He showed plus power in the minors and makes a lot of aerial contact, two skills that will combine to produce a ton of wall-ball doubles and lofted homers. It’s not just a Fenway skill, either; Tropicana Field suits his swing well, though hopefully he’ll get some days off when the Sox visit Baltimore and its left field power trap. I think that the biggest legit question with Grissom is whether he can actually play second, but ZiPS’s defensive forecast thinks he’ll do passably well there, which is good enough for me. Or maybe I’m being a little unfair to our projections, because there’s one more important question: how soon he’ll be healthy. He’s going to miss Opening Day, which is why we have Valdez getting a substantial amount of run. Valdez is a solid utility infielder, but he’s not a first-division starter in the same way that I think Grissom is. The options behind him are break-glass-in-case-of-emergency, nothing more. This is the Grissom show, for better or worse." The difference between Boston at 29th and Detroit at 17th last year was 3.2 fWAR for 2B. I’ll take that much of an improvement if it does happen. Im excited to watch the young guys play, but the floor is once again very low for the Red Sox at 2B.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 20, 2024 10:46:18 GMT -5
I don't take issue with him being outside of a top-50. Braxton Garrett ahead of him seems at least in the "reasonable people disagree" category. Referring to everyone south of a legit 2/3 as a JAG is nuts though. EDIT: The way they've formulated these rankings, Bello is definitely not in the category 3 group: the six pitchers in that tier are Glasnow, Kirby, Gallen, Gausman, Snell, Castillo. And I think his risk is too high for the category 4 group in the way they've defined it, though there are guys listed there who I'd consider putting Bello ahead of. The way they put the list together is wonky. It's based on survey results, but the survey only included the top 50 guys by fWAR (probable that no Red Sox player made the list depending on minimum IP they used) plus 20 more guys the list makers "thought merited consideration" (this group included Sale).
So totally possible Bello and Crawford weren't even up for consideration.
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Post by James Dunne on Mar 20, 2024 11:43:27 GMT -5
No indication they'd used an IP minimum. Crawford was 50th in fWAR last year, 48th among starters.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Mar 20, 2024 12:35:41 GMT -5
No indication they'd used an IP minimum. Crawford was 50th in fWAR last year, 48th among starters. He put up some of that as a reliever though. If you sort by WAR as a starter he was 57th. And in either case, Bello didn't make the cut, so he would have needed to be on the list of 20 handpicked guys.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 20, 2024 22:04:44 GMT -5
FanGraphs shortstop rankings - disappointing, too pessimistic in my view - 16th blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-shortstop/It’s not every day a two-time All-Star signs a six-year, $140 million contract with the Red Sox, and within two seasons it’s like he’s in witness protection. Hiding in plain sight. But it’s been an unusual couple of years. The Red Sox have been terrible — they’re currently coming off back-to-back last-place finishes in the AL East — and all the focus on Boston’s infield has been elsewhere. Plus Story’s had an absolutely brutal run of injury luck: Broken wrist, heel contusion, internal brace surgery to repair a torn UCL. (We should come up with a fun nickname for that procedure, like Timmy Jack Surgery or something.) And when on the field, Story has been disappointing, posting a .227/.287/.398 line, which is an 84 wRC+. In 137 games and 564 plate appearances for the Red Sox — which amounts to about a full season in two years — he’s hit 19 home runs and generated 2.6 WAR. So compared to his time in Colorado, Story is walking less, striking out more, and hitting for a lower average and less power. Adjustments for park and the decline of the rocket ball take care of some of that, as does the rust that would accumulate after so many trips to the IL. But he’s got to turn it around.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 20, 2024 22:05:43 GMT -5
Third base rankings - this is more like it - we are #4 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-third-base/The Boston Red Sox have shown a willingness to let their best players walk if the price doesn’t suit them, but the one player they did manage to ink to a long-term deal was Rafael Devers, who signed a 10-year, $313 million extension to stay in town well into the 2030s. The choice made a lot of sense; since the start of his breakout 2019, Devers ranks third in baseball in WAR among third basemen. And with the exception of Austin Riley, who won’t be hitting the free agent market any time soon either, he’s younger than the rest of the top dozen or so players on this list. Devers is one of baseball’s hardest hitters, enabling him to survive Fenway’s oddly shaped outfield. Unless they have an uncanny knack for pulling pitches almost to Pesky’s pole, mortal left-handed power hitters frequently go to Boston to die. But Devers doesn’t need the cheapies; he only has a single home run shorter than 360 feet to right field in Fenway during his career. He’ll lose some homers due to his home park, of course, but so did Ted Williams and David Ortiz, and like them, Devers has power to spare. He’s already fifth in Red Sox history in homers by a lefty, and he’s only a couple of years away from passing Mo Vaughn. The Red Sox would need a lot of things to go their way to do more than shuffle on the edges of the Wild Card race, and a healthy Devers is probably a must. If something happens to him and they have to play Bobby Dalbec, Pablo Reyes or Romy Gonzalez at third, they’re probably winning 76 games anyway.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Mar 21, 2024 9:32:36 GMT -5
Yamamoto’s projections are off to a brutal start.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 21, 2024 11:10:02 GMT -5
Left field - we are #8 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-left-field/"Tyler O’Neill is coming off a second straight mediocre season at the plate, but the projections remain convinced he’s a talented hitter, with good on-base skills and impact power. Presumably, the Red Sox were similarly convinced when they dealt for him this winter. If O’Neill meets his projected 113 wRC+, he could be the best right-handed hitter in Boston’s lefty-heavy lineup. As Ceddanne Rafaela continues to make his case to be the Opening Day center fielder, Alex Cora is facing a decision as to how to best divide playing time in the outfield corners. O’Neill can cover all three outfield positions, but he’s a good bet to be Cora’s primary left fielder. That’s where he has most of his big league experience, and it makes more sense for the speedier Jarred Duran to cover the right field expanse at Fenway Park. That doesn’t leave much playing time for Wilyer Abreu, but too much depth is always a good problem to have. A regular outfield alignment of O’Neill, Rafaela, and Duran will make for a strong defensive unit. Even better, it means Masataka Yoshida can make most of his starts at DH. However, on days when Cora wants to prioritize offense, Yoshida can handle left field instead. His glove may be a problem, but his offensive projections look a lot closer to his strong numbers from the first four months of the 2023 season than his terrible fall-off in August and September."
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Post by soxfansince67 on Mar 21, 2024 11:55:22 GMT -5
Center field - we are a disappointing #20 blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-positional-power-rankings-center-field/"Despite the optimism of the projections, it remains to be seen whether the swing-happy Ceddanne Raffaela will have the patience or power to be able to contribute with the bat. Still, anyone who’s seen him play will tell you that the 24-year-old is already an all-world defensive center fielder. After an offseason of waiting to see whether the Red Sox would buy time by signing a center fielder in free agency, it looks like the job will be his. That the team is still giving Raffaela reps at second base and shortstop probably says more about the deficiencies on their roster than in his game. Jarren Duran is no slouch in center himself, but he looks likely to start in right and shift over to center against lefties. Duran got some help from the BABIP gods in 2023, and the projections see him settling in as just a hair below average at the plate. It’s foolish to read much into platoon splits, so take this with a grain of salt, but after running a 14 wRC+ against lefties in his first two seasons, Duran was up to 98 in 2023 (with his xwOBA going from .219 to .275). Tyler O’Neill is a very good defender as well, so the outfield should be covered at Fenway."
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Post by incandenza on Mar 21, 2024 12:15:08 GMT -5
There's been one line in almost every one of these fangraphs write-ups where I'm like, ehhhh, you don't really follow this team that closely do you. Here's the howler from the LF entry.
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