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2024 Pre-season analyses - ZiPs projections, etc.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jan 26, 2024 10:37:16 GMT -5
It looks ZiPS projections have been put up in full on Fangraphs. We now have projections for Grissom and O'Neill, who were acquired after the Red Sox projections were initially published: www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zipsdc&lg=&team=&sortcol=20&sortdir=descSome interesting things to me: - ZiPS really likes O'Neill, way more than Steamer: projects him for a 122 wRC+ which is tied for 29th in all of baseball and 3.3 WAR. That is an incredible projection and a higher wRC+ than guys like Pete Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. Maybe O'Neill can be the middle of the order right handed hitter that we need. - It likes Vaughn Grissom quite a bit too, though it looks like he gets knocked for his D by moving to 2B: 2.4 WAR in the depth charts projections vs. 3 WAR in the the non-depth charts projections. I am guessing the latter has him at SS and the bump he gets is from the positional adjustment. Hopefully his D is better at 2B than it says here, but still a 112 wRC+ from our 2B would be incredible. - It likes Story a lot more than Steamer and gives him a 3 WAR projection if he can stay healthy In the non-depth charts projections where playing time is not adjusted for, it still is all over Rafaela: gives him the 3rd highest WAR projection on the team behind only Devers and Grissom if he were to play a full season. Has him hitting 17 HR with 20 SB and gives him a 95 wRC+. If that projection is at all accurate then he really should be in the majors. |
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Post by notstarboard on Jan 26, 2024 17:44:20 GMT -5
It looks ZiPS projections have been put up in full on Fangraphs. We now have projections for Grissom and O'Neill, who were acquired after the Red Sox projections were initially published: www.fangraphs.com/projections?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zipsdc&lg=&team=&sortcol=20&sortdir=descSome interesting things to me: - ZiPS really likes O'Neill, way more than Steamer: projects him for a 122 wRC+ which is tied for 29th in all of baseball and 3.3 WAR. That is an incredible projection and a higher wRC+ than guys like Pete Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. Maybe O'Neill can be the middle of the order right handed hitter that we need. - It likes Vaughn Grissom quite a bit too, though it looks like he gets knocked for his D by moving to 2B: 2.4 WAR in the depth charts projections vs. 3 WAR in the the non-depth charts projections. I am guessing the latter has him at SS and the bump he gets is from the positional adjustment. Hopefully his D is better at 2B than it says here, but still a 112 wRC+ from our 2B would be incredible. - It likes Story a lot more than Steamer and gives him a 3 WAR projection if he can stay healthy In the non-depth charts projections where playing time is not adjusted for, it still is all over Rafaela: gives him the 3rd highest WAR projection on the team behind only Devers and Grissom if he were to play a full season. Has him hitting 17 HR with 20 SB and gives him a 95 wRC+. If that projection is at all accurate then he really should be in the majors. Finally some projections that actually look reasonable. Steamer just hates everyone I like lol |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 8, 2024 10:03:27 GMT -5
The way I choose to read this is that the Red Sox are one of 11 AL teams that are projected in the range of 79 to 90 wins. A real free-for-all!
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 8, 2024 10:36:03 GMT -5
I can't wait until we are 3 games above .500 at the deadline, good enough to justify not selling, but not good enough to justify making an acquisition.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 8, 2024 10:41:06 GMT -5
I can't wait until we are 3 games above .500 at the deadline, good enough to justify not selling, but not good enough to justify making an acquisition. Not sure if this is tongue in cheek so to speak but based off nothing but a gut feeling I feel if Breslow is in a similar scenario he will not sit on his hands at the deadline if this were to happen. Whether correct or not that seems to me like one of the things Bloom gets dinged on most so I don't think a new guy in charge is going to make that same error. Theoretically if he decides to sell Pivetta, Martin, Jansen maybe ONeill should all be able to bring back something of interest, if they are to decide to buy their farm has some depth right now and hopefully takes another step forward from now untill July where they can go out and get a piece or two that shouldn't break the farms back. |
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Post by incandenza on Feb 8, 2024 10:52:40 GMT -5
I can't wait until we are 3 games above .500 at the deadline, good enough to justify not selling, but not good enough to justify making an acquisition. Not sure if this is tongue in cheek so to speak but based off nothing but a gut feeling I feel if Breslow is in a similar scenario he will not sit on his hands at the deadline if this were to happen. Whether correct or not that seems to me like one of the things Bloom gets dinged on most so I don't think a new guy in charge is going to make that same error. Theoretically if he decides to sell Pivetta, Martin, Jansen maybe ONeill should all be able to bring back something of interest, if they are to decide to buy their farm has some depth right now and hopefully takes another step forward from now untill July where they can go out and get a piece or two that shouldn't break the farms back. If, after a lackluster offseason, the team is above .500 and close to a wild card spot, and then Breslow sells off a bunch of good players and the team goes into a post-deadline swoon for the third straight year, I'm sure the fanbase would be just thrilled.
Of course in 2022 Bloom improved the team while simultaneously adding some significant prospect talent and people are still complaining about it, but I, for one, would be happy if Breslow could pull off that neat a trick.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 8, 2024 10:56:53 GMT -5
Not sure if this is tongue in cheek so to speak but based off nothing but a gut feeling I feel if Breslow is in a similar scenario he will not sit on his hands at the deadline if this were to happen. Whether correct or not that seems to me like one of the things Bloom gets dinged on most so I don't think a new guy in charge is going to make that same error. Theoretically if he decides to sell Pivetta, Martin, Jansen maybe ONeill should all be able to bring back something of interest, if they are to decide to buy their farm has some depth right now and hopefully takes another step forward from now untill July where they can go out and get a piece or two that shouldn't break the farms back. If, after a lackluster offseason, the team is above .500 and close to a wild card spot, and then Breslow sells off a bunch of good players and the team goes into a post-deadline swoon for the third straight year, I'm sure the fanbase would be just thrilled.
Of course in 2022 Bloom improved the team while simultaneously adding some significant prospect talent and people are still complaining about it, but I, for one, would be happy if Breslow could pull off that neat a trick.
I agree with you for the most part, I don't ding Bloom for 2022 I think overall he did a good job. I do ding him for 2023 though. I'm also not saying I want the Sox to sell off players if they're above .500 and in striking distance of the playoffs, my main thought is in that scenario I would like them to pick a lane and either sell or buy and not just sit on their hands. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 8, 2024 11:10:10 GMT -5
Not sure if this is tongue in cheek so to speak but based off nothing but a gut feeling I feel if Breslow is in a similar scenario he will not sit on his hands at the deadline if this were to happen. Whether correct or not that seems to me like one of the things Bloom gets dinged on most so I don't think a new guy in charge is going to make that same error. Theoretically if he decides to sell Pivetta, Martin, Jansen maybe ONeill should all be able to bring back something of interest, if they are to decide to buy their farm has some depth right now and hopefully takes another step forward from now untill July where they can go out and get a piece or two that shouldn't break the farms back. If, after a lackluster offseason, the team is above .500 and close to a wild card spot, and then Breslow sells off a bunch of good players and the team goes into a post-deadline swoon for the third straight year, I'm sure the fanbase would be just thrilled.
Of course in 2022 Bloom improved the team while simultaneously adding some significant prospect talent and people are still complaining about it, but I, for one, would be happy if Breslow could pull off that neat a trick.
Again what did he improve? His opportunity cost was that he could Have improved our prospect capital way more. I’m not sure what the measure is for that he improved the MLB when we came in last 2 years in a row If we are 500 at the deadline and also stumbling (which we were the last 2 years) and we trading very short term and aging talent for prospects…. I wouldn’t only be happy with that as it is an overall coherent thought, and consistent with their plan so far, but it is only prudent. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 8, 2024 11:14:22 GMT -5
If, after a lackluster offseason, the team is above .500 and close to a wild card spot, and then Breslow sells off a bunch of good players and the team goes into a post-deadline swoon for the third straight year, I'm sure the fanbase would be just thrilled.
Of course in 2022 Bloom improved the team while simultaneously adding some significant prospect talent and people are still complaining about it, but I, for one, would be happy if Breslow could pull off that neat a trick.
His opportunity cost was that he could Have improved our prospect capital way more. I’m not sure what the measure is for that he improved the MLB when we came in last 2 years in a row If we are 500 at the deadline and also stumbling (which we were the last 2 years) and we trading very short term and aging talent for prospects…. I wouldn’t only be happy with that as it is an overall coherent thought, and consistent with their plan so far, but it is only prudent. He added Abreu and Valdez, Abreu is likely to be the strong side platoon COF for this year and Valdez has the type of bat where if he can learn how to field 2nd adequately he can be a viable starting 2nd baseman. If you want to argue he could have done more selling in 2022 than be my guest but to say he didn't make any improvements to the future of the roster during the 2022 deadline would be an incorrect thing to say. |
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Post by Guidas on Feb 8, 2024 11:27:12 GMT -5
I just can't get past the fact that this team with this ownership group has decided to eschew building a team that can win the AL East AGAIN and is instead asking us to bank on some non-specific future date when certain prospects reach MLB and become above average MLB players. They're asking this while acting as if the other teams in the AL East don't have either significant (and even better) prospect depth or financial resources or both.
I mean, are we the frogs in the boiling water here?
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 8, 2024 11:42:25 GMT -5
I just can't get past the fact that this team with this ownership group has decided to eschew building a team that can win the AL East AGAIN and is instead asking us to bank on some non-specific future date when certain prospects reach MLB and become above average MLB players. They're asking this while acting as if the other teams in the AL East don't have either significant (and even better) prospect depth or financial resources or both. I mean, are we the frogs in the boiling water here? The thing is the only way they will ever be a team that can win the AL East is if they have prospects emerge to become above average MLB players. Then you supplement those guys with acquired talent. It is the only path. Look at the teams who have won the division. They do not do it without cheap talent outperforming their contracts. I actually agree with you that I'm disappointed with the current state of their spend, but even if they spend what I consider a reasonable amount this year they won't be division favorites. I don't know what you're asking them to do short of going full Cohen, which is just not in the cards. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 8, 2024 11:54:57 GMT -5
I for the life of me cannot understand why they are reportedly not interested in Montgomery or Snell but past those two hindsight kind of tells me that this was always going to be how the offseason went, Ohtani and Yamamoto were not coming to Boston. They should have been more aggressive early on some of the 2nd/3rd tier FA SPs but the position player FAs weren't very good fits for what they need.
Short of going nuclear and treating this offseason like it's MLB The Show and signing Montgomery, Snell and Bellinger and then flipping some guys in a blockbuster trade or two there wasn't really an avenue to them being considered division favorites. I'm not going to say I'm happy with the offseason to date but I do understand the inactivity on some level.
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 8, 2024 12:03:34 GMT -5
I think most of us would've been happy with a result that wasn't "division favorite", but "might not be last if things go well" is tough to swallow, especially when there were real improvements to be had for money.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 8, 2024 12:07:39 GMT -5
I for the life of me cannot understand why they are reportedly not interested in Montgomery or Snell but past those two hindsight kind of tells me that this was always going to be how the offseason went, Ohtani and Yamamoto were not coming to Boston. They should have been more aggressive early on some of the 2nd/3rd tier FA SPs but the position player FAs weren't very good fits for what they need. Short of going nuclear and treating this offseason like it's MLB The Show and signing Montgomery, Snell and Bellinger and then flipping some guys in a blockbuster trade or two there wasn't really an avenue to them being considered division favorites. I'm not going to say I'm happy with the offseason to date but I do understand the inactivity on some level. I feel like it’s not that confusing. Montgomery has mediocre stuff and Snell is unreliable, and Scott Boras appears to be demanding $150 million and $200+ million for them, respectively. The pitchers the Red Sox have right now have a lot of interesting metrics when you look under the hood, I buy that they really do just like the guys they have more than we the fans do. Based on how he’s talked about, you wouldn’t think Tanner Houck has a 4.17 ERA, a 3.70 FIP, and a .680 OPS against in nearly 200 career innings as a starter, for example. I really don’t think it’s all that crazy/lazy/cheap/etc. to not want to sign up to pay a guy you’re not crazy about $25+ million/year until he’s 36 or 37, especially not when you’re finally free of the Chris Sale albatross that’s been holding your team back for half a decade. |
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Post by awalkinthepark on Feb 8, 2024 12:18:45 GMT -5
I just can't get past the fact that this team with this ownership group has decided to eschew building a team that can win the AL East AGAIN and is instead asking us to bank on some non-specific future date when certain prospects reach MLB and become above average MLB players. They're asking this while acting as if the other teams in the AL East don't have either significant (and even better) prospect depth or financial resources or both. I mean, are we the frogs in the boiling water here? Then you supplement those guys with acquired talent. It is the only path. Look at the teams who have won the division. They do not do it without cheap talent outperforming their contracts. I actually agree with you that I'm disappointed with the current state of their spend, but even if they spend what I consider a reasonable amount this year they won't be division favorites. I don't know what you're asking them to do short of going full Cohen, which is just not in the cards. The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 8, 2024 12:24:12 GMT -5
.... especially not when you’re finally free of the Chris Sale albatross that’s been holding your team back for half a decade. This doesn't sound right to me in the least. YMMV. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 8, 2024 12:25:32 GMT -5
Again what did he improve? His opportunity cost was that he could Have improved our prospect capital way more. I’m not sure what the measure is for that he improved the MLB when we came in last 2 years in a row If we are 500 at the deadline and also stumbling (which we were the last 2 years) and we trading very short term and aging talent for prospects…. I wouldn’t only be happy with that as it is an overall coherent thought, and consistent with their plan so far, but it is only prudent. He added Abreu and Valdez, Abreu is likely to be the strong side platoon COF for this year and Valdez has the type of bat where if he can learn how to field 2nd adequately he can be a viable starting 2nd baseman. If you want to argue he could have done more selling in 2022 than be my guest but to say he didn't make any improvements to the future of the roster during the 2022 deadline would be an incorrect thing to say. No I meant at the MLB level at that time. The post said he improved the MLB team as well. He gets credit for getting those guys. I ding him for not trading a plethora of other extremely short term Assets for more guys like that |
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Post by chaimtime on Feb 8, 2024 12:31:39 GMT -5
.... especially not when you’re finally free of the Chris Sale albatross that’s been holding your team back for half a decade. This doesn't sound right to me in the least. YMMV. They’ve been playing a guy close to $30 million a year to sit on the IL for the past four years. I don’t know how you can say that hasn’t been an obstacle to building a winning team. |
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Post by puzzler on Feb 8, 2024 12:58:44 GMT -5
He added Abreu and Valdez, Abreu is likely to be the strong side platoon COF for this year and Valdez has the type of bat where if he can learn how to field 2nd adequately he can be a viable starting 2nd baseman. If you want to argue he could have done more selling in 2022 than be my guest but to say he didn't make any improvements to the future of the roster during the 2022 deadline would be an incorrect thing to say. No I meant at the MLB level at that time. The post said he improved the MLB team as well. He gets credit for getting those guys. I ding him for not trading a plethora of other extremely short term Assets for more guys like that The only thing I can ding him for is not getting under the LT in 2022 - he should have been under somehow, someway. I would have traded JD for pretty much anything just to be under the cap. That would have improved the draft pretty significantly. Afterall, there are a limited number of spots in the farm system at all levels; sometimes you have plenty of quantity, but not enough quality. Getting 2 round comp pics and extra money may have significantly changed things at higher levels. |
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Post by nomar on Feb 8, 2024 13:01:27 GMT -5
This doesn't sound right to me in the least. YMMV. They’ve been playing a guy close to $30 million a year to sit on the IL for the past four years. I don’t know how you can say that hasn’t been an obstacle to building a winning team. Also, no team is signing 6 established SPs. So when your best one ends up being a near zero for you, it’s too much slack for the rest of the team to have to pick up, especially for an org that has struggled to produce home grown starting pitching. |
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Post by Guidas on Feb 8, 2024 13:04:10 GMT -5
The thing is the only way they will ever be a team that can win the AL East is if they have prospects emerge to become above average MLB players. Then you supplement those guys with acquired talent. It is the only path. Look at the teams who have won the division. They do not do it without cheap talent outperforming their contracts. I actually agree with you that I'm disappointed with the current state of their spend, but even if they spend what I consider a reasonable amount this year they won't be division favorites. I don't know what you're asking them to do short of going full Cohen, which is just not in the cards. The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
This is my point exactly - even top 100 prospects have something like a 25% chance of becoming an MLB-average or better. To base your whole strategy - or a large part - on waiting for them and their success is, at least based on historical data, a fool's gamble. ADDED: There are ways to increase these odds or spread the risk. One of the best is what Speier suggested - signing some short-term FAs then trading at the deadline, unless this team is improbably headed for 90+ wins. Or you can go the Tampa route and trade some of your higher rated prospects for other teams (grossly) undervalued prospects. Or a team can do both. Anyway, it's just frustrating to watch because, unless the vast bulk of Duran, Rafaela, Casas, Grissom and Valdez play at MLB Ave or better level going forward, you're banking on at least two of Teel, Mayer and Anthony to do so "in the future" - which likely won't be 2025 because of the steep rookie adjustment periods we've seen over the last few years. So you're probably looking at 2026. This messaging we're getting from the front office is too much like the "Wait until 2023...2024...2025" refrain or implied/inferred "plan" associated with the last regime. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 8, 2024 13:16:26 GMT -5
The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
This is my point exactly - even top 100 prospects have something like a 25% chance of becoming an MLB-average or better. To base your whole strategy - or a large part - on waiting for them and their success is, at least based on historical data, a fool's gamble. I think I have to disagree that their whole strategy or even a large part of it are waiting on their prospects. That is certainly a part of the equation but they have a pretty long list of guys at the MLB level who are cost controlled that have shown success but are still somewhat unknown what their true production level will be at the ML level. Hitters: Wong, Casas, Grissom, Duran, Abreu, and I'd even throw in Yoshida. That's potentially 6 outta 9 of a lineup. Pitchers: Bello, Whitlock, Houck, Crawford, Winckowski. I don't agree with their apparent current strategy of throw these young guys out on their own without a life vest so to speak. I think they should add at least a reliable vet or two on both the pitching and hitting side of things but overall I disagree with the idea they're just kicking the can down the road until Mayer/Anthony/Teel and Co. are ready. It would appear to me they have some belief in their current young group of MLBers and want to use this year to assess them. |
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Post by pappyman99 on Feb 8, 2024 13:25:26 GMT -5
I think the FO wants to use this season to see what they truly have among the following group
(Rafaela, Duran, Abreu, Grissom, Houck, Whitlock, and Crawford)
Then also evaluate the Progress of Teel, Mayer, Anthony, Perales, Gonzalez, Yorke, and Fitts in the minors
You gain that clarity and have the contracts of Martin. Jansen, Sale, Pivetta, O’Neill, among others ….
You’ll be able to affectively and precisely address areas of the team next offseason with a ton of financial flexibility and a young roster of promising players
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 8, 2024 13:29:11 GMT -5
The thing is the only way they will ever be a team that can win the AL East is if they have prospects emerge to become above average MLB players. Then you supplement those guys with acquired talent. It is the only path. Look at the teams who have won the division. They do not do it without cheap talent outperforming their contracts. I actually agree with you that I'm disappointed with the current state of their spend, but even if they spend what I consider a reasonable amount this year they won't be division favorites. I don't know what you're asking them to do short of going full Cohen, which is just not in the cards. The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
Top-100 listed prospects are not the only players that can become valuable major leaguers. Outside of those guys they have Bello, Casas, Duran, Crawford, Abreu, Grissom, Wong all MLB players with the potential to establish themselves as above average or better regulars, with 6 years of cheap team control. Plus guys who very conceivably could become that this year in Valdez, Yorke, Fitts. |
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 8, 2024 13:32:29 GMT -5
The problem I have with this, which I have said many, many times, is that if the Red Sox truly believe what you are saying here then their farm system is not good enough right now. I like all of our prospects and I hope they will be good, but the bust rate on prospects is so high that I don't think having 4 top 100 guys is acceptable. For every Mookie, Xander or Devers that the Red Sox produce you still get guys like Swihart, Owens, Moncada and Benintendi. All of those guys were top 25 prospects in baseball at one time. Jeter Downs was a top 50 prospect heading into 2020 and the #2 prospect on this site at one point. Jay Groome was a top 50 prospect in 2017.
I'm not saying that Mayer, Anthony or Teel will wind up being busts, but people are getting way ahead of themselves by penciling these guys in to the starting lineup in 2025. If we had 6 or 7 top 100 guys then I think it's fair to assume at least a few of them will pan out, but 4 doesn't really inspire much confidence.
This is my point exactly - even top 100 prospects have something like a 25% chance of becoming an MLB-average or better. To base your whole strategy - or a large part - on waiting for them and their success is, at least based on historical data, a fool's gamble.What alternative are you proposing? Because as far as I can tell it is 100% the only way a team can be successful now. Name a World Series champion in the past decade without a significant amount of young, cost controlled talent. |
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