Verdugo Extension Discussion

Verdugo's got 10 million or so coming in arb next year. I'd guess his first three FA years project to be worth about 5 WAR. So something like 4/55 is about fair value. Verdugo strikes me as a guy that might accept a lousy deal though tbh.

I'd offer him jlebowski's deal except I'd throw in an additional $6 million signing bonus to double his salary this year

Would that affect this year's cap?

I think that's around the right number, whether the bonus folded into the future salaries or separated out.

Why would he take it? Well, if he stinks or gets seriously injured, he's guaranteed $30m more than what he has now (which is about $10m w/o endorsements, minus fancy cars and homes), whereas if he just plays out his arb years and is either bad or hurt, he'd probably wind up with about $8m max, followed by maybe a show-me contract from somewhere. That's more or less worst-case scenario.

But if he really figures something out and has a breakout, he gets the $30m plus a crack at FA as a 29/30-yo who's just broken out, so he probably winds up in the high 8-figures/low 9-figures in total. If he "bets on himself" and doesn't agree to that extension, and has a breakout, he probably ends up in a similar neighborhood with a big arb raise and his subsequent contract.

So by signing that extension, he would raise his floor earnings significantly while his ceiling earnings would be around the same. At least that's how I'd pitch it to him as a GM.

Do I believe that he's worth the risk? I think so. The main reward with him is that he taps into some real power and I think it's possible, maybe a 30-40% probability. He's not a bad hitter, he just hasn't reached the type of power potential that it seems like he has.

And it's not like the system is bursting at the seams with can't-miss OFs who are close to the majors. Do you wait a year to see how Rafaela and Abreu progress and risk that Doogie breaks out this year and his price goes way up?  I don't really see the need to wait with Hernandez and Duvall coming off the books this year and Yoshida no guarantee to stay in the OF.

Still, AV's production at the plate has been declining steadily since he got here, which is not how it's supposed to work from age 24 to 26 and he's not exactly JBJ with the leather. I might actually just abide by the dude's 3/$24m...

Wait, WHAT? What gives you that impression?

Easily replaced? Find me an acquirable 2 WAR outfielder who plays 145+ games, and for your $7m threshold.

Doogie gonna put up 3+ WAR this year

Seems like the kind of guy that isn’t bothered by the spotlight, I want him around long term.

Those guys are all, at minimum, four years older than Verdugo, though. Carpenter is in his late 30's and was pretty much an afterthought in the league until he went nuclear for a stretch last year. They may be equivalent players based on last year's production but the market will not value them equally moving forward. 

Herein lies the rub, I'm not going to say their drafting and development has "sucked" but other than Rafaela they currently don't have anyone else in the upper minors who I would look at and say he can replace Verdugo and they won't skip a beat. The good news is they have two years before they need to replace Verdugo if they don't try and sign him to an extension so perhaps a guy like Bleis pushes the issue and becomes that guy. 

I think I am in the camp of lets see what Verdugo does this year before approaching him about an extension, the flipside there is if he has a good 2.5-3+ WAR type of year he probably isn't going to be giving any team discounts and if he's 2 or less then as has been said is it really worth signing him to an extension unless it's very team friendly? 

He needs to prove he can stick in Fenway’s RF long term before making that commitment IMO. I hope he takes the next step though. It does feel like there is another level for him to get to, but right now extending a LHH that might be LF only here doesn’t seem like the safest thing, especially with so many LHH in our long term scope (Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Mayer, and the big dogs on campus… Kavadas and Valdez)

I'm pretty sure 4 guys being available doesn't really qualify as "easy to find", but whatever. Youth absolutely factors into it because with Verdugo you are paying him with the understanding that his performance is likely to sustain or improve, you aren't paying a 35 year old hoping he gets better, you're doing it praying he can hang on. There's only one person here trying to force a narrative, partner, and it ain't me.

Matt Carpenter is your example for an outfielder who could replace Verdugo? In 12 years, he's played 40 total games there, give me a break with that. Same with Peterson, guy hasn't played more than 30 games in the OF since 2018. You just gave me 2 infielders on the back 9 of their careers. By that logic, may as well trade Verdugo and plug Brandon Crawford in right field next offseason

Assuming Crawford is a pretty good defender in the OF, which I bet he would be with a little practice, then yes, he could probably match or exceed Verdugo's overall production from last year. That's just another example of how easy it is to find that level of corner outfielder.



1 guy being available for less than 7mil is 'easy to find' - you only need 1. 4 is ridiculously easy to find.

I'm not sure what your deal is with bringing up Verdugo's agoe over and over - it's not what we're discussing and is very troll-ish. Please make a separate post with your case of why Verdugo will be better, or whatever it is you're after, rather than trying to change the narrative of a discussion.