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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 10:10:52 GMT -5
I appreciate the cherry-picked sample, but I’m talking about an overall decline that has spanned Verdugo’s entire tenure in Boston. He looked like a future star in 2020 and has slipped significantly ever since. I understand that he’s on the Red Sox so everyone is optimistic, but if this same player put up the same stats for the Brewers(for example), I don’t think anyone would be excited about this career progression. As for the injuries, I have to believe that anyone who plays that many games is battling assorted maladies. It’s part of the gig. I think Verdugo is at a critical juncture of his career. If he continues to slide, he might be more of a candidate for a non-tender than he is for an extension. Verdugo's xwOBA actually improved from 2020 to 2021, he got pretty lucky in 2021 (.371 BABIP if xwOBA isn't your flavor of choice), I don't think offensively at least he has a clear downward pattern in Boston. His xwOBA was down slightly last year from 2021 as was his defense, but - reasons for optimism - as bosoxnation said he reportedly had a broken toe hindering him the first two months of 2022 (so maybe June 1 isn't so arbitrary), and the team is being pretty open that they aren't pleased with how he changed his body and he's come into camp looking significantly slimmer. I like the optimism…and everyone SHOULD be optimistic in February and March. But Verdugo has been one of the biggest disappointments for me over the last few seasons. I really thought he was going to take the next step and become an all-star level player. I didn’t expect him to regress to mediocrity instead. Also, if he had a broken toe, did it suddenly heal up on June 1st when the numbers got better? We can’t have it both ways. Either injuries hampered him or they didn’t. It doesn’t make sense to assume he was injured in April and May and feeling good the rest of the way.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 24, 2023 10:11:54 GMT -5
After June 1st last year, He slashed .302/.355/.434/.789 with 8 HR and had a 121 wRC+. On top of all of this, Verdugo played through multiple injuries in the 2022 season that kept him “in shambles”. A foot (big toe) hairline fracture and shoulder issues aren’t the best conditions to play through. You guys understand WAR has a ton to do with where you’re at in the batting order correct? In the last 2 seasons, he’s struck out in less than 15% of his PA and has 323 hits in 298 games. He’s worth 12-14 mill year. Period. www.thehalftime.app/amp/p/1cqh/Understanding-Market-Value-The-Alex-Verdugo-Episode I appreciate the cherry-picked sample, but I’m talking about an overall decline that has spanned Verdugo’s entire tenure in Boston. He looked like a future star in 2020 and has slipped significantly ever since. I understand that he’s on the Red Sox so everyone is optimistic, but if this same player put up the same stats for the Brewers(for example), I don’t think anyone would be excited about this career progression. As for the injuries, I have to believe that anyone who plays that many games is battling assorted maladies. It’s part of the gig. I think Verdugo is at a critical juncture of his career. If he continues to slide, he might be more of a candidate for a non-tender than he is for an extension. You said he was declining. I gave you his stats from June 1 - October 5 and that’s cherry picked? Hahahahahahahahahaha thanks for that laugh.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 24, 2023 10:13:35 GMT -5
Verdugo's xwOBA actually improved from 2020 to 2021, he got pretty lucky in 2021 (.371 BABIP if xwOBA isn't your flavor of choice), I don't think offensively at least he has a clear downward pattern in Boston. His xwOBA was down slightly last year from 2021 as was his defense, but - reasons for optimism - as bosoxnation said he reportedly had a broken toe hindering him the first two months of 2022 (so maybe June 1 isn't so arbitrary), and the team is being pretty open that they aren't pleased with how he changed his body and he's come into camp looking significantly slimmer. I like the optimism…and everyone SHOULD be optimistic is February and March. But Verdugo has been one of the biggest disappointments for me over the last few seasons. I really thought he was going to take the next step and become an all-star level player. I didn’t expect him to regress to mediocrity instead. Also, if he had a broken toe, did it suddenly heal up on June 1st when the numbers got better? We can’t have it both ways. Either injuries hampered him or they didn’t. It doesn’t make sense to assume he was injured in April and May and feeling good the rest of the way. This is... how injuries work? They heal? Verdugo is about as safe a bet for 2 WAR as you can find. Maybe that's underwhelming, but it's also pretty valuable. And to your earlier, blatant attempt at spinning my words, I did not say he was likely to improve, I said he was likely to sustain or improve, which is a pretty key difference. You can certainly spin it to say he's gotten worse every year since 2020, or you can say that he's been roughly the same player every year outside of a small-ish sample hot stretch in the shortened 2020 and a likely injury-riddled cold stretch for two months of 2022.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 24, 2023 10:15:05 GMT -5
I like the optimism…and everyone SHOULD be optimistic is February and March. But Verdugo has been one of the biggest disappointments for me over the last few seasons. I really thought he was going to take the next step and become an all-star level player. I didn’t expect him to regress to mediocrity instead. Also, if he had a broken toe, did it suddenly heal up on June 1st when the numbers got better? We can’t have it both ways. Either injuries hampered him or they didn’t. It doesn’t make sense to assume he was injured in April and May and feeling good the rest of the way. This is... how injuries work? They heal? This guy is a troll. Anyone know how to block someone on here?
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 10:15:59 GMT -5
I appreciate the cherry-picked sample, but I’m talking about an overall decline that has spanned Verdugo’s entire tenure in Boston. He looked like a future star in 2020 and has slipped significantly ever since. I understand that he’s on the Red Sox so everyone is optimistic, but if this same player put up the same stats for the Brewers(for example), I don’t think anyone would be excited about this career progression. As for the injuries, I have to believe that anyone who plays that many games is battling assorted maladies. It’s part of the gig. I think Verdugo is at a critical juncture of his career. If he continues to slide, he might be more of a candidate for a non-tender than he is for an extension. You said he was declining. I gave you his stats from June 1 - October 5 and that’s cherry picked? Hahahahahahahahahaha thanks for that laugh. You gave me 4+ months and I gave you 3 full seasons. It reminds me of a football team that is down 28-0 at the half and loses 28-21. I’m sorry, but the whole thing counts and that is what I was looking at. Also, you said he was battling a bunch of injuries last season, but he suddenly seems to have cast that all aside on June 1st? It doesn’t make much sense to me.
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 10:29:44 GMT -5
I like the optimism…and everyone SHOULD be optimistic is February and March. But Verdugo has been one of the biggest disappointments for me over the last few seasons. I really thought he was going to take the next step and become an all-star level player. I didn’t expect him to regress to mediocrity instead. Also, if he had a broken toe, did it suddenly heal up on June 1st when the numbers got better? We can’t have it both ways. Either injuries hampered him or they didn’t. It doesn’t make sense to assume he was injured in April and May and feeling good the rest of the way. This is... how injuries work? They heal? Verdugo is about as safe a bet for 2 WAR as you can find. Maybe that's underwhelming, but it's also pretty valuable. And to your earlier, blatant attempt at spinning my words, I did not say he was likely to improve, I said he was likely to sustain or improve, which is a pretty key difference. You can certainly spin it to say he's gotten worse every year since 2020, or you can say that he's been roughly the same player every year outside of a small-ish sample hot stretch in the shortened 2020 and a likely injury-riddled cold stretch for two months of 2022. That is definitely how injuries work, but do broken toes suddenly get better during the season? I figure those are the kinds of nagging injuries(along with shoulder issues) that get better in the offseason. Verdugo never went on the DL, so I’m not sure when he was healing. It’s also fairly empty to say his down numbers occur when he’s hurt, but the better numbers came when he was feeling healthy. You also say he’s a safe bet for 2.0WAR when he didn’t achieve that in 2022. If 2020 Verdugo shows up, I think that’s the guy you want to extend. If not, I think the Sox need to set their sights higher for corner OF’s.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 24, 2023 10:37:01 GMT -5
This is... how injuries work? They heal? Verdugo is about as safe a bet for 2 WAR as you can find. Maybe that's underwhelming, but it's also pretty valuable. And to your earlier, blatant attempt at spinning my words, I did not say he was likely to improve, I said he was likely to sustain or improve, which is a pretty key difference. You can certainly spin it to say he's gotten worse every year since 2020, or you can say that he's been roughly the same player every year outside of a small-ish sample hot stretch in the shortened 2020 and a likely injury-riddled cold stretch for two months of 2022. That is definitely how injuries work, but do broken toes suddenly get better during the season? I figure those are the kinds of nagging injuries(along with shoulder issues) that get better in the offseason. Verdugo never went on the DL, so I’m not sure when he was healing. It’s also fairly empty to say his down numbers occur when he’s hurt, but the better numbers came when he was feeling healthy. You also say he’s a safe bet for 2.0WAR when he didn’t achieve that in 2022. If 2020 Verdugo shows up, I think that’s the guy you want to extend. If not, I think the Sox need to set their sights higher for corner OF’s. Yes broken toes can get heal even if you're running on it, just more slowly. It's not empty to say his down numbers occur when he was hurt because that is exactly the reality based on the reporting we have available. People aren't just making things up here. Maybe the toe didn't really affect him and he was just slumping, totally possible who knows, but the timeline itself is pretty concrete.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 24, 2023 10:37:35 GMT -5
This is... how injuries work? They heal? Verdugo is about as safe a bet for 2 WAR as you can find. Maybe that's underwhelming, but it's also pretty valuable. And to your earlier, blatant attempt at spinning my words, I did not say he was likely to improve, I said he was likely to sustain or improve, which is a pretty key difference. You can certainly spin it to say he's gotten worse every year since 2020, or you can say that he's been roughly the same player every year outside of a small-ish sample hot stretch in the shortened 2020 and a likely injury-riddled cold stretch for two months of 2022. That is definitely how injuries work, but do broken toes suddenly get better during the season? I figure those are the kinds of nagging injuries(along with shoulder issues) that get better in the offseason. Verdugo never went on the DL, so I’m not sure when he was healing. It’s also fairly empty to say his down numbers occur when he’s hurt, but the better numbers came when he was feeling healthy. You also say he’s a safe bet for 2.0WAR when he didn’t achieve that in 2022. If 2020 Verdugo shows up, I think that’s the guy you want to extend. If not, I think the Sox need to set their sights higher for corner OF’s. 2020 Verdugo was exactly the same player, but with a lower xwOBA. He just got lucky with BABIP in a short season. He is what he is, but there's no negative offensive trend. The defense has trended down though, which is the main reason his WAR was down last season, and that's what I think a lot of people are looking to see improvement on this season. If you're right that broken toes somehow can't heal during the season then that's reason to be more optimistic about his ability to put up 2+ WAR this year.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 13, 2023 15:18:30 GMT -5
So you don’t think they can offer Dugie 4-6 years at 10-12 a year? Interesting After 2 weeks of the regular season I'm changing my mind on this one. Verdugo needs to get paid. Apparently, there is a very small percentage of players who can play well in Boston and anyone who shows that they are one of the few should never be allowed to leave. I feel like I may have already known this, but for some reason didn't apply the logic to Verdugo. I wish he was a RHH, but despite that the team needs to do what it takes to keep him in Boston. remember this when we he signs for 14-16 and everyone's going to blame Bloom for not signing him before this year for 10-12. Even though those same people DIDNT want him. Im calling it RIGHT NOW!
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Post by manfred on Apr 13, 2023 16:00:44 GMT -5
I say trade him. He is a decent ball player, but I don’t want him in RF. They already committed to Yoshida, who seems LF only. I don’t see those two as your corner OF. Get something for him.
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Post by kingstephanos on Apr 13, 2023 17:12:54 GMT -5
I say trade him. He is a decent ball player, but I don’t want him in RF. They already committed to Yoshida, who seems LF only. I don’t see those two as your corner OF. Get something for him. I agree with your assessment, but I don't have high hopes of uppermanagement making a deal that benefits the team longterm. Their recent history, up to this point, is collecting multiple B-/C+ prospects in lieu of a singular B+/A- prospect (to "load up the farm system")... which had led to middling results.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 13, 2023 17:45:40 GMT -5
I'm conflicted on it, I'm fine with the idea of trading him but I wouldn't take a mediocre package of lotto ticket prospects for him.
The downside to me is what Manfred said about the defense. I don't know that a Verdugo and Yoshida COF combo is the best. I don't see how OF defense can be above average with those two on the corner.
On the flipside the FA class isn't looking that good and this team can't afford to be losing competent starting caliber players. Verdugo is still relatively young and if he can be had for a reasonable deal I wouldn't mind signing him either.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 14, 2023 10:09:30 GMT -5
I say trade him. He is a decent ball player, but I don’t want him in RF. They already committed to Yoshida, who seems LF only. I don’t see those two as your corner OF. Get something for him. You want to trade one of our only decent bats left. I usually agree with you but wow.
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Post by manfred on Apr 14, 2023 10:16:37 GMT -5
I say trade him. He is a decent ball player, but I don’t want him in RF. They already committed to Yoshida, who seems LF only. I don’t see those two as your corner OF. Get something for him. You want to trade one of our only decent bats left. I usually agree with you but wow. Not *now*. But assuming this season goes nowhere, come deadline, I’d trade him rather than extend him. I don’t think an outfield with Yoshida and Verdugo at the corners is a championship outfield. So locking it in for half decade doesn’t excite me.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 14, 2023 10:28:58 GMT -5
There are a lot of ifs. Verdugo is an average/slightly above average player. He does have a decent hit tool. He reminds me of Mike Greenwell after he hurt his back. The hope is he is Mike Greenwell as a hitter before he hurt his back.
It's hard to want to give a guy who's slightly above average a long-term extension because at some point during that extension as he ages the margin of error from being above average to below average is low with him. It's not like he's a player who if he loses 10% of his value is still going to be a good player.
Of course I say this as Verdugo has yet to prove that he's going to go out there and hit .300 with 20 HRs and good defense. He just might do that. He's still young enough and talented enough to accomplish this, but will he? He's gotten off to good starts before and then he hits a few homers and suddenly he's wearing out the 2b with 4-3 groundouts. Then he realizes he needs to stop going for homers on purpose and he sprays the ball around and he hits again.
I don't think he gets extended unless he gives Bloom a discounted deal. Bloom was quick not to keep Benintendi who's a decent hitter but never progressed to his full potential.
The defense will be a thing, too. If he can't really handle RF - yet to be determined - at Fenway, then he's a LF when they're already locked into Yoshida for 5 year 90 million.
Verdugo does have decent trade value. They can trade him for Mookie...haha, just kidding. But he does have value in a trade where they can get a good/promising asset. Do I trust Bloom to make that trade and get an asset that doesn't feel like a downgrade? At this point, I don't have that complete trust.
I mean, if Verdugo says, I'll take 5 years 60 million or something like that I can see Bloom possibly taking that, but if he's looking for 15 - 16 million or even more given what Yoshida is making, I don't really see it. Of course the three worst scenarios are that you trade him for guys who don't return his value or you sign him to a deal you soon regret thereafter or even worse let him walk and get practically nothing for him. The best case scenarios are you trade him for a young, useful pitcher who can fit in the middle of the rotation, kind of what E-Rod was like, or you sign him to a reasonable extension and he hits like a young Greenwell, who truly was a helluva hitter - look up his 1987 - 1988 stats.
The way he has been, I wouldn't be rushing to see him to a long-term deal. That said, if he takes Cora's challenge to heart, and improves himself, he does have the persona to play successfully in Boston, which is a plus for him, not that being able to handle Boston has really played a huge part in keeping potential free agents.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 14, 2023 23:16:24 GMT -5
You want to trade one of our only decent bats left. I usually agree with you but wow. Not *now*. But assuming this season goes nowhere, come deadline, I’d trade him rather than extend him. I don’t think an outfield with Yoshida and Verdugo at the corners is a championship outfield. So locking it in for half decade doesn’t excite me. Think it’s a little early to make this opinion. Verdugo is still only 26 and I think he’s played pretty good D so far. He’s still only 26 years old. I think his better baseball is ahead of him. Time will tell. Don’t look now but Verdugo and Devers have the same WAR lol
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 15, 2023 7:11:32 GMT -5
I don’t think you move on from clutch players who like playing in this market
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 19, 2023 8:49:49 GMT -5
One pleasant surprise to me so far is Verdugo's D in RF. I was pretty lukewarm on him being our primary right fielder this year but he looks much better than I thought. Gets decent jumps on the ball and his arm is fine. I don't think he will ever blow anyone away out there but his D looks good enough to play RF in Fenway which is no small thing.
He gets so much flak from a certain portion of the media that will never get over the Mookie trade, but he is just an all around solid ballplayer.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 19, 2023 10:01:58 GMT -5
I don’t think you move on from clutch players who like playing in this market Yeah I don't think you do whatever it takes to bring him in long-term, he's not *that* level of player, but you absolutely have to at least try to find a reasonable extension because he's too good a player to lose for a rental's trade return or nothing at all.
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Post by seamus on Apr 19, 2023 13:48:54 GMT -5
Verdugo's statcast page is looking really good right now. It's obviously too early to draw real conclusions about any player, either positive or negative, but it definitely seems like he's more athletic and the numbers are bearing that out so far. I particularly like the uptick in his line drive rate; he's hitting way more balls in the "sweet spot" in terms of launch angle, so even though he doesn't hit balls particularly hard relative to most top hitters, he's so good at solid contact that the results are still strong. (Sort of like Luis Arraez, though not as extreme, of course.) Defensive stats can be fluky as all get out, but he's made every play within reach so far, including a few that weren't gimmes. H e is also playing RF differently than in years past - more shallow and closer to the line - and combined with his uptick in footspeed, I think his defensive improvement could be real, even if 94th percentile OAA is probably too good to maintain.
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Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 19, 2023 15:51:34 GMT -5
I think it comes down to whether you want to pay 11-13M AAV for a player that isn't bad in anything, but isn't much above average in anything, either. He's a fine enough player. His career OPS+ is 109. He's roughly an average to slightly below average career defender. His 162 game AVG WAR is 2.9 so if they did pay him, I could understand them doing so.
Personally, I would not pay that AAV for who he is, but that's just me.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 19, 2023 19:09:16 GMT -5
I think it comes down to whether you want to pay 11-13M AAV for a player that isn't bad in anything, but isn't much above average in anything, either. He's a fine enough player. His career OPS+ is 109. He's roughly an average to slightly below average career defender. His 162 game AVG WAR is 2.9 so if they did pay him, I could understand them doing so. Personally, I would not pay that AAV for who he is, but that's just me. Why? Hes also a great clubhouse personality. Youre not going to pay 11-13 mill for him so you want to replace him with who? That's disrespectful. Nothing bothers me more then the fan base wanting to not pay players and then they leave and their replacement sucks and they have the balls to wine about it.
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Post by nhsoxfan on Apr 19, 2023 19:40:50 GMT -5
I think it comes down to whether you want to pay 11-13M AAV for a player that isn't bad in anything, but isn't much above average in anything, either. He's a fine enough player. His career OPS+ is 109. He's roughly an average to slightly below average career defender. His 162 game AVG WAR is 2.9 so if they did pay him, I could understand them doing so. Personally, I would not pay that AAV for who he is, but that's just me. Why? Hes also a great clubhouse personality. Youre not going to pay 11-13 mill for him so you want to replace him with who? That's disrespectful. Nothing bothers me more then the fan base wanting to not pay players and then they leave and their replacement sucks and they have the balls to wine about it. I'm not a big "clubhouse personality" guy as I tend to think that unless players are absolute malcontent cancers, it doesn't matter too much. Culture and presence is generally overrated unless its at the extremes, either way. I just don't think even in 2023, a player with his credentials is worth that. Obviously he's off to a great start this season.
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Post by jdb on Apr 20, 2023 11:18:34 GMT -5
I think I’d just let the next 1.5+ years play out with Verdugo. Like him as a player but he’s been up and down a little and I like him a heck of a lot more if he’s in RF but could he do that for the next 4-6 years?
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 20, 2023 13:42:11 GMT -5
2nd Best All Around Player on the Team. Lets let him walk.....NOT!
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