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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Jul 26, 2023 12:47:52 GMT -5
The fact anyone thinks we are going to outbid the Padres for Soto is laughable. Anyone else plays GG defense in RF. Top 10 in doubles, 3rd on the team in WAR .2 behind Devers, it’s being praised, at this point i’m blaming Mookie. I think it’s mainly because he’s hit a bit of a wall this season. 27 wRC+ in the month of July, granted it’s only 63 PAs. Isn't in more like he has hit a wall this month ? Most fans would have been OK with him being selected as an All Star reserve and he would have deserved to be.
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Post by briam on Jul 26, 2023 12:49:40 GMT -5
I think it’s mainly because he’s hit a bit of a wall this season. 27 wRC+ in the month of July, granted it’s only 63 PAs. Isn't in more like he has hit a wall this month ? Most fans would have been OK with him being selected as an All Star reserve and he would have deserved to be. Yup, gotta bounce back first though. That’s why they play 162.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2023 13:05:08 GMT -5
The fact anyone thinks we are going to outbid the Padres for Soto is laughable. Anyone else plays GG defense in RF. Top 10 in doubles, 3rd on the team in WAR .2 behind Devers, it’s being praised, at this point i’m blaming Mookie. I mean the Padres stink this year and have how many long term bloated deals already? Maybe Soto gets sick of losing and signs elsewhere if he sees the writing on the wall in San Diego. Until he signs an extension there I'm assuming he's going to be a FA where anything can happen.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 26, 2023 13:11:49 GMT -5
Padres fans are frequently complaining that all their dumb contracts mean Soto is definitely leaving
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Post by jmei on Jul 26, 2023 13:34:23 GMT -5
I wouldn't worry too much about the roster fit in 2025. If Verdugo is re-signed on a good contract (or even just not a terrible one), he'll be very movable if they want to open playing time for Soto, Anthony, etc.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 26, 2023 14:09:59 GMT -5
Padres fans are frequently complaining that all their dumb contracts mean Soto is definitely leaving I think a lot of owners are going to see that there wasn’t a big correlation between spending and winning (looking at you SD and NYM) and realize that trying to buy a shortcut to success is an expensive uphill battle. If the results/probabilities aren’t materially different, why spend that much more? Go find the right guy to run your franchise and the dividends are much greater. I’m really curious to see the contracts this offseason. I wouldn’t blindly assume the Padres, Mets, etc are just going to keep serving up these massive deals.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2023 14:16:58 GMT -5
Padres fans are frequently complaining that all their dumb contracts mean Soto is definitely leaving I think a lot of owners are going to see that there wasn’t a big correlation between spending and winning (looking at you SD and NYM) and realize that trying to buy a shortcut to success is an expensive uphill battle. If the results/probabilities aren’t materially different, why spend that much more? Go find the right guy to run your franchise and the dividends are much greater. I’m really curious to see the contracts this offseason. I wouldn’t blindly assume the Padres, Mets, etc are just going to keep serving up these massive deals. Probably will be some of that going on, I mean heck look at the Yankees too. Spent all that money to keep Judge and sign Rodon and they're in the basement. The thing is if you really look at it, those teams spent all that money but you could make a case that they spent it to either break even compared to last season in the case of the Mets and in the case of the Padres spent it on X who was a player that honestly made no sense to that team. They already had two options to play SS this year who many teams would have loved to have at the position in Tatis and Kim. There are smart ways to spend money and you can certainly make a case none of those teams spent money wisely.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 26, 2023 14:37:58 GMT -5
Alright, I'm convinced! I had noticed his arm strength on Savant, which looks fine in a vacuum, but among CF he has below average arm strength and you need even more for RF. This year, average OF arm strenghs from left to right are 87.5 mph, 89.2 mph, and 91.2 mph. Duran's at 87.2 mph. Verdugo's at 92.5 mph, for comparison. Still, guys like Mookie Betts and Manuel Margot are down at 87.9 mph and 87.3 mph respectively, so you can certainly be a good RF with an arm like Duran's. Duran's had a quick jump this year to go with improved routes to balls, so range-wise I think he'd do well there. So, I'd be more open positionally to acquiring Soto than I was before.
I still don't think he's a good fit lineup-wise. This team is already very LHH heavy, and signing Soto would potentially make our 5 best hitters LHH, even if Verdugo leaves: Soto, Devers, Yoshida, Casas, Duran. The only RHH who might touch the top 5 would be Story; Rafaela and Wong would be very unlikely to, and there aren't that many bopping 2B out there that we might pursue. So, again, I'm back to wanting to invest at the top of the rotation instead. And regardless I wouldn't want to sign Verdugo long term unless it's at a discount.
I feel like if Juan Soto is available you disregard whether or not your line up is too left handed. He's arguably the best hitter in baseball, you can make it work with him. Even though he's probably my dream target I'm certainly not saying the likelihood is very high he becomes a Red Sox, I doubt they pony up the 12 year $500M type of deal he is going to command but a guy can dream. I hear you, but if you're the high bidder for a player that is a worse fit for your roster than the teams you're bidding against, you're probably overpaying. The one possible exception would be if your farm / payroll situation is substantially better than the rest of the field, and while it's much improved, I don't think we're there. Soto is an incredible hitter, but he has no defensive value, and Soto and our other stars will see their production suffer if teams can just ram LHPs down our throat due to lack of balance; we've seen some of that this year, and it would only get worse if we steered into the LHH heaviness. So, I don't think he's a guy I'd expect to end up in Boston...but with that said, it would be a blast right? So why not dream? And certainly other moves could be made to make it look more realistic between now and then.
I'll leave it at that on Soto, though - don't want to derail the thread.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 26, 2023 19:51:00 GMT -5
Is it just me or did Dugie's slump start when he was taken out of the 1 hole.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 27, 2023 7:36:37 GMT -5
I hate to perpetuate the off Verdugo talk but why do we need Soto when we have Anthony in the wings? (half serious, I understand he's an elite talent) The way he's progressing he will probably be ready some time in 2025 early.
I'm not opposed to signing a big time bat, but I'd rather bring in an elite RHH to plug in right between Devers and Casas.
The more I think about it, the more I'm with keeping Verdugo next year and taking the draft pick if he walks.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 31, 2023 12:55:14 GMT -5
Here is a look at 3 stats which have worsened significantly for Verdugo in July:
BABIP Mar/April: .333 May: .319 June: .361 July: .151
K% Mar/April: 13.2% May: 14.1% June: 12.3% July: 19.2%
Line Drives Mar/April: 22% May: 23.3% June: 21.7% July: 9.1%
It would be easy to just look at BABIP and chalk it up to noise/luck, but the K% and line drive% indicate a problem.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 31, 2023 13:39:07 GMT -5
I hate to perpetuate the off Verdugo talk but why do we need Soto when we have Anthony in the wings? (half serious, I understand he's an elite talent) The way he's progressing he will probably be ready some time in 2025 early. I'm not opposed to signing a big time bat, but I'd rather bring in an elite RHH to plug in right between Devers and Casas. The more I think about it, the more I'm with keeping Verdugo next year and taking the draft pick if he walks. Since I believe Boston will go above the tax next season, it should be a 4th* round comp pick if he gets QO'd and walks. FWIW.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2023 14:18:52 GMT -5
Is it just me or did Dugie's slump start when he was taken out of the 1 hole. I thought it started when he found out he was passed over for the all star team, or perhaps a little before that - maybe he was pressing to make the squad. Either way he does this every year. At some point it takes a summer vacation and then comes back later on. And always after a hot start. I though this year he might skip the vacation, but I guess he is what he is, a good player who has a good hit tool and will .290 with a dozen HRs or so and this year he's playing good defense. Good player, but not likely to be great. He will pick it back up with the bat.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Jul 31, 2023 14:44:14 GMT -5
Not to make an excuse or cite a situation that may not be at the root of Verdugo's recent performance, but I would just like to mention that he is going through a lot in his off-the-field/personal life recently.
As someone who has personally lost a parent to illness in the last year and had their work suffer a tremendous amount as a result, I have at times wondered how someone in a results-oriented profession like MLB could possibly cope with something similar while trying to perform to the best of their abilities.
I think there is a non-zero chance that Verdugo's 'slump' is tied to the adversity he and his loved ones have faced recently.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 31, 2023 14:52:35 GMT -5
Different people react differently to "life events." No judgement from me -- to each what they need.
That said, If a player is not "healthy" enough -- physically, mentally, spiritually, emotionally -- to suit up and put forth a good professional performance, then they owe the Game, their employers, teammates and fans the decency to let someone else do the job until they feel well enough to again compete professionally.
TL;dr: if Verdugo needs a break -- take it. Otherwise, LFG.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 31, 2023 14:55:37 GMT -5
Verdugo's 2nd half wRC+: 3. Since 7/18 he's just been brutal. But I still like him, I think he'll work out of this. For whatever it's worth, July has been his worst month overall in his career at a 73 wRC+ (though I'm not gonna do the math on how much of that is weighed by 2023), while August has been his best at a 144. He doesn't generally have huge 1st vs. 2nd half splits overall.
I'm thinkin he's gonna be fine. Still like his odds at having a career best year this year (not saying much, he only needs 0.2 more WAR to do it).
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Post by Guidas on Jul 31, 2023 15:26:36 GMT -5
Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation If Bloom has brought the "Ruthless Rays" approach to veteran players, then Verdugo is gone unless he agrees to a team (very) friendly deal. Probably no more than $15M-17M AAV x 4 years with a team option for a 5th. That's a guess based on last year's market and Verdugo's age and ability. He's 27 this year, so he's at or near his peak (27-29 depending on the player). My other guess is Verdugo can do better than that in the open market. The rest of the OFs for 2024-25 are mostly dreck, except for a guy named Soto. Sox may not have a ready replacement so will either have to make a trade or see if Rafaela can hit MLB pitching on the regular. Abreu is not a solution - he's an org guy with a ceiling of a 4th OF according to the scouts here. If they think Rafaela can handle MLB pitching at least enough, they may even pull a Mookie and put him in RF since his arm is probably a bit better than Duran's. The fan in me would like Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Verdugo in RF with Yoshida being the primary DH and spelling Duran/Rafaela (with Duran taking over CF on the days Yoshida plays LF and Rafaela needs a breather). Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Bloom takes that "See ya later veteran guy!" approach with a non-star but good player like Verdugo that the Rays have been so bold with the last 8+ years. Sadly - being a Duggie fan - I think this will bear out. He's exactly the kind of guy Tampa trades with a year to go or, at worst, lets walk. Even with the Sox larger payroll, I bet Mr. Bloom believes Rafaela or an acquisition (or Duvall for another year) can fill Verdugo's role more cheaply and the money can be spent elsewhere.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 31, 2023 17:02:16 GMT -5
Different people react differently to "life events." No judgement from me -- to each what they need. That said, If a player is not "healthy" enough -- physically, mentally, spiritually, emotionally -- to suit up and put forth a good professional performance, then they owe the Game, their employers, teammates and fans the decency to let someone else do the job until they feel well enough to again compete professionally. TL;dr: if Verdugo needs a break -- take it. Otherwise, LFG. That makes sense in theory, but in my experience human beings are very poor self evaluators. That's why they have Cora (and his supporting staff).
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 5, 2023 22:26:22 GMT -5
Since Dugo is a hot topic tonight, I'm bumping this thread to do a mea culpa. A lot of us got caught up in Dugo's strong start and threw around ridiculous numbers as to what the Red Sox should offer him and what his value on the FA market might be.
He's now at a pedestrian 108 wRC+ and 2 FG WAR, not to mention acting like a douche. But there I was not that long ago suggesting that I was warming up to the idea of 5 years/$100M.
It's what we do as fans. We let our emotions and recency bias get in the way of cold, hard logic. I see the same thing happening, but to a lesser extent, with Turner lately.
I can't imagine that Dugo is on this team next year. The Red Sox have to get at least one more productive RH bat in the lineup and RF is an obvious place to do it. I don't think they'll much for him.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 5, 2023 22:37:32 GMT -5
Since Dugo is a hot topic tonight, I'm bumping this thread to do a mea culpa. A lot of us got caught up in Dugo's strong start and threw around ridiculous numbers as to what the Red Sox should offer him and what his value on the FA market might be. He's now at a pedestrian 108 wRC+ and 2 FG WAR, not to mention acting like a douche. But there I was not that long ago suggesting that I was warming up to the idea of 5 years/$100M. It's what we do as fans. We let our emotions and recency bias get in the way of cold, hard logic. I see the same thing happening, but to a lesser extent, with Turner lately. I can't imagine that Dugo is on this team next year. The Red Sox have to get at least one more productive RH bat in the lineup and RF is an obvious place to do it. I don't think they'll much for him. I thought the strong defense in RF was evidence of a new and improved Verdugo. He is the same Verdugo, albeit with better defense. Either way, hes not going to be extended and I won't complain about it. I'd rather see the money spent on a good pitcher. And patch up RF until Anthony is ready.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 5, 2023 23:12:10 GMT -5
Yeah there’s a 0.0% chance he’s getting an extension now
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Post by Smittyw on Aug 6, 2023 0:29:12 GMT -5
I wonder what Verdugo trade scenarios were discussed before the deadline. I was agnostic on the idea at the time, but at the worst you could have played out the string with Duvall in right and/or called up Rafaela. If the Sox want to try again this winter, you have to imagine his value ain't going to be what it was.
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Post by redsox56 on Aug 6, 2023 1:06:12 GMT -5
I’m late to the party, but holy shit — what a dramatic day. Genuinely curious what the hell is going on with the Verdugo situation. Cora categorizing the team as a whole stepping back when publicly it’s just Dugie in question is perplexing and deeply concerning. One player’s misstep is not worth that type of categorization. I personally wouldn’t be shocked if Verdugo gets added to the restricted list. Something seems more deeply wrong than being late… It was a huge step back, not in terms of the now, but future trades too. It's not like Verdugo was worth a brinks truck in future trades with one year of control left. However, a 20 something year old outfielder with skills, you could see a future on... Now you see a guy virtually or non virtually tapping out in the middle of a wild card race (you're at least questioning his desire or off field questions at the least!). That kind of dude is a guy you probably low-ball the Sox to get to take off their hands this off-season. So the Sox probably ride with Verdugo into 2024, and QO him and make their peace that way. (Copied from GDT)
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