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Post by notstarboard on Apr 23, 2023 12:47:33 GMT -5
So the Mookie trade is good now. < ducks > Just wait until Wong starts hitting
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,535
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Post by shagworthy on Apr 23, 2023 12:58:14 GMT -5
For me it's a no brainer, offer him a fair deal and lock him up. I like his fire, and he is the exact kind of guy who thrives in an environment like Boston, is he a super star? No, but he's a glue guy a la Nixon and you need those guys too.
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Post by scottysmalls on Apr 23, 2023 16:00:34 GMT -5
I'd rather give Verdugo 10 year / 10 million but guess what friends? He ain't signing any of these deals right now. 3/60, even interpreting generously buys out one arb. year for something like a 6M raise and then gives him 2/40. 5/75, similarly would effectively be effectively a 4/60 for his prime, which gives him zero upside unless he gets hurt. We don't know what he'll sign and what he won't sign. The contract Xander signed to keep himself here through last year surprised everybody. Ditto for Pedroia's long-term deal. Bolded: It's unlikely that he suffers a career-altering injury before he hits FA after the '24 season. But the downside risk of suffering that injury is ginormous. It could come at a cost of tens of millions of dollars. Nomar is the example who comes to mind. Fortunately, he was smart enough to marry into money. The other risk for him is that the first 22 games of this season are not predictive of his future performance and he goes back to being the mediocre player he's been the last two years. These are the reasons he might sign a reasonable deal. And if he turns them down, the Red Sox still have options. But at least try. True we don't know what he'd take. On the bolded my point is even if he's just the 2021-2022 version of himself, that guy in his prime years can probably get $15M/year on the open market. He's about a 2 win guy if you ignore 2020 and 2023, and a win costs ~$8.5M. Then factor in that the four years should be the middle of his prime and I think he'd get that deal anyways even if none of what we have seen so far this year maintains. My guess is he thinks highly enough of himself, and believes enough in his start to the season, that he would want something more to pass on the upside that he truly has taken a step forward.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 25, 2023 12:46:45 GMT -5
The Reynolds deal is theoretically a great negotiation tool for the Sox in any discussion about a Verdugo extension. If Reynolds is getting a $13 million AAV then Verdugo’s deal should theoretically be capped at that. I’d do half that deal (4/52) for Verdugo in a heartbeat.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2023 17:00:28 GMT -5
The Reynolds deal is theoretically a great negotiation tool for the Sox in any discussion about a Verdugo extension. If Reynolds is getting a $13 million AAV then Verdugo’s deal should theoretically be capped at that. I’d do half that deal (4/52) for Verdugo in a heartbeat. You would do 4/52 but I doubt Verdugo would. He just saw his team give out 5/90 for Yoshida. Verdugo, at this point, is a better hitter and defender, and younger. My guess is 8/140 is perhaps the floor of what he might accept.
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 25, 2023 17:13:51 GMT -5
This is a guy we have the opportunity to lock up before he becomes to expensive. Lets see how this plays out.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 25, 2023 17:15:51 GMT -5
The Reynolds deal is theoretically a great negotiation tool for the Sox in any discussion about a Verdugo extension. If Reynolds is getting a $13 million AAV then Verdugo’s deal should theoretically be capped at that. I’d do half that deal (4/52) for Verdugo in a heartbeat. You would do 4/52 but I doubt Verdugo would. He just saw his team give out 5/90 for Yoshida. Verdugo, at this point, is a better hitter and defender, and younger. My guess is 8/140 is perhaps the floor of what he might accept. I don’t think there’s any way that Verdugo or his agency are delusional enough to think he’s going to get anywhere near that contract, so I highly doubt that would be the floor. I wasn’t suggesting at all that Verdugo would take 4/52 I’m just saying if you scale down the Reynolds deal a bit it seems pretty palatable and you’d hope that would firm up the market a bit. I think if the Sox offered Verdugo that same Reynolds deal he’d probably accept it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2023 17:23:04 GMT -5
You would do 4/52 but I doubt Verdugo would. He just saw his team give out 5/90 for Yoshida. Verdugo, at this point, is a better hitter and defender, and younger. My guess is 8/140 is perhaps the floor of what he might accept. I don’t think there’s any way that Verdugo or his agency are delusional enough to think he’s going to get anywhere near that contract, so I highly doubt that would be the floor. I wasn’t suggesting at all that Verdugo would take 4/52 I’m just saying if you scale down the Reynolds deal a bit it seems pretty palatable and you’d hope that would firm up the market a bit. I think if the Sox offered Verdugo that same Reynolds deal he’d probably accept it. 8/105 is 3 years and 15 million more than Yoshida. I have trouble believing he'd accept that. I was surprised Reynolds took his deal but then again he doesnt have teammates not better than him making more.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 25, 2023 17:28:49 GMT -5
I don’t think there’s any way that Verdugo or his agency are delusional enough to think he’s going to get anywhere near that contract, so I highly doubt that would be the floor. I wasn’t suggesting at all that Verdugo would take 4/52 I’m just saying if you scale down the Reynolds deal a bit it seems pretty palatable and you’d hope that would firm up the market a bit. I think if the Sox offered Verdugo that same Reynolds deal he’d probably accept it. 8/105 is 3 years and 15 million more than Yoshida. I have trouble believing he'd accept that. I was surprised Reynolds took his deal but then again he doesnt have teammates not better than him making more. Why is it that you think Verdugo has so much more leverage in extension negotiations than Yoshida did as a free agent? Verdugo’s start has been awesome but he’s more good than great, I would be surprised if he did better than the Reynolds deal even in free agency.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 25, 2023 17:38:16 GMT -5
8/105 is 3 years and 15 million more than Yoshida. I have trouble believing he'd accept that. I was surprised Reynolds took his deal but then again he doesnt have teammates not better than him making more. Why is it that you think Verdugo has so much more leverage in extension negotiations than Yoshida did as a free agent? Verdugo’s start has been awesome but he’s more good than great, I would be surprised if he did better than the Reynolds deal even in free agency. Granted, my answer is based on Verdugo being a .300 hitting athletic RF that he has been thus far and in my opinion has the talent to be. And he could revert to the LF only .280 hitting guy with less speed and defense of the past. But if this IS truly Verdugo we're seeing I dont see why he'd sign for barely more than Yoshida for 3 years. I get that he's not a free agent but he is after next year and at age 27. He doesnt have to settle for anything. He has leverage. The one thing in the Sox favor here is that Verdugo seems to genuinely love being a Red Sox and likes the attention that comes with it. That said, we've seen the Sox brass use that against a player before.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 25, 2023 17:41:08 GMT -5
Why is it that you think Verdugo has so much more leverage in extension negotiations than Yoshida did as a free agent? Verdugo’s start has been awesome but he’s more good than great, I would be surprised if he did better than the Reynolds deal even in free agency. Granted, my answer is based on Verdugo being a .300 hitting athletic RF that he has been thus far and in my opinion has the talent to be. Okay but he’s not going to get paid more than the guy with multiple 4+ WAR seasons because of a month’s worth of batting average and the talent evaluation of a biased fan. If Verdugo wants to test the open market that’s his right, I think it’s highly unlikely he does better than Reynolds did. Maybe he could get a higher AAV over 3 or 4 years but I don’t think he ends up with an ultimately larger contract.
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Post by orion09 on Apr 25, 2023 19:08:24 GMT -5
If Verdugo winds up with, say, a 4 WAR season, I would guess you’re looking at something in the range of 5Y/$110M. A little more than the Yoshida deal.
The real question is whether the Sox think that Verdugo could stick in RF over the duration of the contract. That would be a prerequisite, I would think, because I don’t see any way that risk-averse Bloom is going to carry two LF on ~$100M deals.
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Post by grandsalami on May 1, 2023 21:09:51 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on May 1, 2023 21:16:32 GMT -5
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,837
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 1, 2023 22:08:31 GMT -5
If Verdugo winds up with, say, a 4 WAR season, I would guess you’re looking at something in the range of 5Y/$110M. A little more than the Yoshida deal. The real question is whether the Sox think that Verdugo could stick in RF over the duration of the contract. That would be a prerequisite, I would think, because I don’t see any way that risk-averse Bloom is going to carry two LF on ~$100M deals. I am coming around on this and could live with those numbers for him (and you guys know how thick headed I am about avoiding stupid contracts!) I look at The Next Great Red Sox Team as arriving in 2025 but taking shape now. It would be healthy to have a few moderate-sized veteran contracts for guys who are decent but not great on that team. That's how I see Story and Yoshi. Neither is a superstar but I think they'll both be good-value assets on the next big-time team at Fenway. Add Dugo at the dollars Orion09 mentioned and you have three.
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Post by keninten on May 1, 2023 22:19:24 GMT -5
If Verdugo winds up with, say, a 4 WAR season, I would guess you’re looking at something in the range of 5Y/$110M. A little more than the Yoshida deal. The real question is whether the Sox think that Verdugo could stick in RF over the duration of the contract. That would be a prerequisite, I would think, because I don’t see any way that risk-averse Bloom is going to carry two LF on ~$100M deals. I am coming around on this and could live with those numbers for him (and you guys know how thick headed I am about avoiding stupid contracts!) I look at The Next Great Red Sox Team as arriving in 2025 but taking shape now. It would be healthy to have a few moderate-sized veteran contracts for guys who are decent but not great on that team. That's how I see Story and Yoshi. Neither is a superstar but I think they'll both be good-value assets on the next big-time team at Fenway. Add Dugo at the dollars Orion09 mentioned and you have three. I`m coming around a bit too. Not only because of his play but his leadership. A team captain like Doogie has more intangibles than the jester.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on May 1, 2023 22:28:21 GMT -5
There’s questions unrelated to Verdugo the Sox have to answer before going down this road. They’ve worked for 3 years to clean up the long term payroll and are finally approaching a good spot. Are they comfortable with sacrificing that with Verdugo, Story, Yoshida? How real is the Duran thing? If it’s real, are you willing to commit to the outfield being Duran, Yoshida, Verdugo for multiple years? Obviously long term Yoshida is an option at DH or you can trade Duran.
I don’t think extension talks start till the ASB but if he still looks like this you have to check in on the price. Starting point is the Benintendi deal imo
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Post by rhswanzey on May 1, 2023 23:12:30 GMT -5
That’s the thing - Verdugo as a RF is suddenly:
Outs above average: 90th percentile OF jump: 89th Arm strength: 96th
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,218
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Post by cdj on May 1, 2023 23:14:21 GMT -5
Pay.
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Post by keninten on May 2, 2023 0:00:41 GMT -5
There’s questions unrelated to Verdugo the Sox have to answer before going down this road. They’ve worked for 3 years to clean up the long term payroll and are finally approaching a good spot. Are they comfortable with sacrificing that with Verdugo, Story, Yoshida? How real is the Duran thing? If it’s real, are you willing to commit to the outfield being Duran, Yoshida, Verdugo for multiple years? Obviously long term Yoshida is an option at DH or you can trade Duran. I don’t think extension talks start till the ASB but if he still looks like this you have to check in on the price. Starting point is the Benintendi deal imo Never thought how that is locking up the OF. Rafaela and Abreu are also up maybe next year.
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Post by grandsalami on May 16, 2023 22:58:09 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on May 16, 2023 23:39:01 GMT -5
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hank
Rookie
Posts: 102
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Post by hank on May 17, 2023 9:09:37 GMT -5
The price goes up every day
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 24, 2023 16:20:40 GMT -5
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Post by redsoxfansince94 on Jun 24, 2023 20:08:59 GMT -5
I think it’s imperative to re-sign Verdugo. He’s a damn good player. Likable. Has some character. Shown to be clutch. Plays a good RF. Wants to be here and to continue to take steps as an organization, keeping talent is necessary. He fits a time frame. There’s no one pushing him at the moment. If they don’t identify him as a player to move forward with, I hope they have a plan. It just doesn’t make sense to not re-sign him.
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