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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by soxin8 on Jun 30, 2023 21:30:49 GMT -5
Abreu walked, doubled, and homered for Worcester tonight. OPS now 847. He may factor in to any offer made to Verdugo.
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Post by tjb21 on Jul 8, 2023 7:10:59 GMT -5
Abreu walked, doubled, and homered for Worcester tonight. OPS now 847. He may factor in to any offer made to Verdugo. I like Abreu as a prospect, don’t think he will factor in much, if at all.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 8, 2023 8:09:57 GMT -5
Abreu seems like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2023 9:19:10 GMT -5
Abreu seems like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 8, 2023 10:49:32 GMT -5
Abreu seems like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation I'm on the fence about an extension for him but you neglected to mention one thing that is different. Verdugo showed this year he can handle the tough RF at Fenway. I had serious reservations about that going into this year. To me that's his biggest development. That said I do worry about him beyond say 4 years. I worry about the hit tool declining a bit and an endless stream of grounders to 2nd and perhaps losing some of that edge defensively. He doesn't have a lot of power to fall back on, either. So there are concerns. Then again his hit tool could very well hold up and with continued maturity more consistent HR power increased and the doubles keep coming. Most guys dont have Verdugo's hit tool and if he can age gracefully in RF as he hits 30, an argument can definitely be made to extend him. I think if Yoshida got 5 and 90 from the Sox, Verdugo the better defender and similar type hitter can expect more. I would think it would take 5 and 100 to start the conversation and could go to 6 and 120 or even 7 and 140 although I dont see the Sox going that far. As you mentioned the other intangible is that Verdugo relishes the spotlight and Boston atmosphere. I think he needs a high caliber Sox team to really bring out the best in him, I mean like an ALCS MVP or World Series MVP type as I think that he certainly embraces the spotlight.
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nomar
Veteran
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2023 11:10:26 GMT -5
Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation I'm on the fence about an extension for him but you neglected to mention one thing that is different. Verdugo showed this year he can handle the tough RF at Fenway. I had serious reservations about that going into this year. To me that's his biggest development. That said I do worry about him beyond say 4 years. I worry about the hit tool declining a bit and an endless stream of grounders to 2nd and perhaps losing some of that edge defensively. He doesn't have a lot of power to fall back on, either. So there are concerns. Then again his hit tool could very well hold up and with continued maturity more consistent HR power increased and the doubles keep coming. Most guys dont have Verdugo's hit tool and if he can age gracefully in RF as he hits 30, an argument can definitely be made to extend him. I think if Yoshida got 5 and 90 from the Sox, Verdugo the better defender and similar type hitter can expect more. I would think it would take 5 and 100 to start the conversation and could go to 6 and 120 or even 7 and 140 although I dont see the Sox going that far. As you mentioned the other intangible is that Verdugo relishes the spotlight and Boston atmosphere. I think he needs a high caliber Sox team to really bring out the best in him, I mean like an ALCS MVP or World Series MVP type as I think that he certainly embraces the spotlight. Yeah agreed and I was operating under the assumption he stays in RF, which might not even be true long term. Again for the same reasons you mentioned, I love Verdugo and would miss him. It’s just worth questioning what the best way of allocating resources is. The only caveat I’ll include with his power is that he is usually in the 70th-80th percentile range in Max EV. But he doesn’t barrel the ball too often (usually ~30th percentile). So if he could figure out how to barrel the ball more (which is hard at his high contact rate and with his lower launch angle), he could take a step forward in terms of ISO. He’s 27 and has a plus hit tool, so I don’t want to rule out another level for Dugie to get to.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2023 11:41:44 GMT -5
Abreu seems like a prime candidate to be moved at the deadline Why move him? Verdugo has one year left on his deal and it’s not like Abreu would fetch much. If anything this thread is a good example of why you don’t rush to extend players. Many fans were screaming “extend Verdugo” after one of the best months of his life in April. But he has come back down to earth since. His wRC+ is now lower than Devers’. Verdugo is clutch as hell, and that’s what I love about him. But he doesn’t walk much and doesn’t hit for power, which limits his ceiling. It doesn’t look like either thing will ever change. Do I think he will still be an above average starter 5 years from now? It’s a total coin flip to me, and he might get a longer deal than that at a 20M+ AAV. I like him, don’t want him to leave, but I’m not sure about committing to him long term either. I’d love to know how Bloom truly sees him. Tough situation If Bloom has brought the "Ruthless Rays" approach to veteran players, then Verdugo is gone unless he agrees to a team (very) friendly deal. Probably no more than $15M-17M AAV x 4 years with a team option for a 5th. That's a guess based on last year's market and Verdugo's age and ability. He's 27 this year, so he's at or near his peak (27-29 depending on the player). My other guess is Verdugo can do better than that in the open market. The rest of the OFs for 2024-25 are mostly dreck, except for a guy named Soto. Sox may not have a ready replacement so will either have to make a trade or see if Rafaela can hit MLB pitching on the regular. Abreu is not a solution - he's an org guy with a ceiling of a 4th OF according to the scouts here. If they think Rafaela can handle MLB pitching at least enough, they may even pull a Mookie and put him in RF since his arm is probably a bit better than Duran's. The fan in me would like Duran in LF, Rafaela in CF and Verdugo in RF with Yoshida being the primary DH and spelling Duran/Rafaela (with Duran taking over CF on the days Yoshida plays LF and Rafaela needs a breather). Anyway, it will be interesting to see if Bloom takes that "See ya later veteran guy!" approach with a non-star but good player like Verdugo that the Rays have been so bold with the last 8+ years.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,903
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2023 11:48:47 GMT -5
Agreed Guidas it will be interesting and that’s why I said I was curious if they’d consider trading Verdugo if they sell on Paxton at the deadline in that other thread. Many fans would absolutely lose their minds, but those are the people who already hate Bloom.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jul 8, 2023 12:12:46 GMT -5
Agreed that Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo left to right would be ideal. Disagree with incandenza in no way would I be trading Rafaela at this point, a gold glove CF who can also play average to above SS is so valuable even if he is a relatively low OBP guy. And Bleis and Anthony are still several years away by which time Duran and Verdugo are nearing or in their 30s while Rafaela will be hitting his prime. By next season the Sox will have a group that consists of Devers, Verdugo (hopefully), Yoshida, Duran, Casas, Wong and Story with Mayer, Rafaela and Yorke in the wings. Along with the young pitching that is here and on the way that is not something to disrupt.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2023 12:37:04 GMT -5
Agreed that Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo left to right would be ideal. Disagree with incandenza in no way would I be trading Rafaela at this point, a gold glove CF who can also play average to above SS is so valuable even if he is a relatively low OBP guy. And Bleis and Anthony are still several years away by which time Duran and Verdugo are nearing or in their 30s while Rafaela will be hitting his prime. By next season the Sox will have a group that consists of Devers, Verdugo (hopefully), Yoshida, Duran, Casas, Wong and Story with Mayer, Rafaela and Yorke in the wings. Along with the young pitching that is here and on the way that is not something to disrupt. We have no idea if Rafaela can hit. So that OF could be pretty rough offensively. You could be looking at about 20 HRs total, for one thing.
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Post by notstarboard on Jul 8, 2023 22:57:20 GMT -5
Agreed that Duran, Rafaela, Verdugo left to right would be ideal. Disagree with incandenza in no way would I be trading Rafaela at this point, a gold glove CF who can also play average to above SS is so valuable even if he is a relatively low OBP guy. And Bleis and Anthony are still several years away by which time Duran and Verdugo are nearing or in their 30s while Rafaela will be hitting his prime. By next season the Sox will have a group that consists of Devers, Verdugo (hopefully), Yoshida, Duran, Casas, Wong and Story with Mayer, Rafaela and Yorke in the wings. Along with the young pitching that is here and on the way that is not something to disrupt. We have no idea if Rafaela can hit. So that OF could be pretty rough offensively. You could be looking at about 20 HRs total, for one thing. Rafaela's bat is still a question mark, but I don't think there's a reason to worry about lack of pop in the outfield. Take this season for example; we're 6th in runs but 22nd in HR. Coming into tonight, our OF was only on pace for 47 HR, which is 3rd to last in MLB. We're still scoring buckets of runs, though, in large part because our OF gets on base (.363 OBP is highest in MLB by 12 points) and rains down XBH (90 2B is highest in MLB by 13; 11 3B is second in MLB by 2). That's a fine way to score runs.
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Post by manfred on Jul 8, 2023 23:36:29 GMT -5
We have no idea if Rafaela can hit. So that OF could be pretty rough offensively. You could be looking at about 20 HRs total, for one thing. Rafaela's bat is still a question mark, but I don't think there's a reason to worry about lack of pop in the outfield. Take this season for example; we're 6th in runs but 22nd in HR. Coming into tonight, our OF was only on pace for 47 HR, which is 3rd to last in MLB. We're still scoring buckets of runs, though, in large part because our OF gets on base (.363 OBP is highest in MLB by 12 points) and rains down XBH (90 2B is highest in MLB by 13; 11 3B is second in MLB by 2). That's a fine way to score runs. It is. But I would like to see more power. That might come with Casas’s further development, though. Heck, Duran might eventually be a 20 HR guy. So it could be fine.
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Post by blizzards39 on Jul 9, 2023 0:01:24 GMT -5
Rafaela's bat is still a question mark, but I don't think there's a reason to worry about lack of pop in the outfield. Take this season for example; we're 6th in runs but 22nd in HR. Coming into tonight, our OF was only on pace for 47 HR, which is 3rd to last in MLB. We're still scoring buckets of runs, though, in large part because our OF gets on base (.363 OBP is highest in MLB by 12 points) and rains down XBH (90 2B is highest in MLB by 13; 11 3B is second in MLB by 2). That's a fine way to score runs. It is. But I would like to see more power. That might come with Casas’s further development, though. Heck, Duran might eventually be a 20 HR guy. So it could be fine. If the Duran we are seeing is for real he will be a 15-25 HR guy. With 50 plus doubles.
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2023 17:30:39 GMT -5
This thread has gotten quiet.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 19, 2023 17:37:08 GMT -5
Taking a victory lap because a player on the team is having a bad month is pretty lame
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 17:37:57 GMT -5
Taking a victory lap because a player on the team is having a bad month is pretty lame I mean, that guy has a history, do we expect any better?
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Post by manfred on Jul 19, 2023 17:41:16 GMT -5
Taking a victory lap because a player on the team is having a bad month is pretty lame It is not a victory lap, but I am not alone in thinking he is not a guy to resign. He is what he is, which is ok. But that is about to be too expensive to keep around. Even if they are looking at the playoffs, I’d trade him at the deadline.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 19, 2023 18:00:22 GMT -5
I think my feelings on a Verdugo extension are the same as they were before the season - He’s not in the Devers class of “this NEEDS to get done” but he’s way too good to not make a real effort at securing him for ~4 seasons if you can.
That being said, while I wouldn’t be “shopping” him, given the Duran and Masa induced logjam of lefty outfielders, if there is a deal out there for a starter that makes sense, I’m pretty open to leveraging a position of strength to improve the overall roster, and it’s a good problem to have.
But I think that many still underrate just how impactful he is in multiple facets and so my preference would be to try to keep him for a reasonable contract (4 years for whatever AAV he’s played himself into now. 15? 16? I’m bad at estimating these things).
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Post by rhswanzey on Jul 19, 2023 21:09:12 GMT -5
I’m pro making a competitive extension offer to Verdugo, but I did just notice his OAA is down to 46th percentile. Didn’t he spend a lot of the first half 90-95th? Weaker case to extend if that’s more indicative of what you’re expecting out of him going forward.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jul 19, 2023 21:18:43 GMT -5
I’d like to say I’d be fine letting Verdugo play it out and QO him and see what happens, but I assume Sox will be over the tax next year meaning it’s a Campbell/Reimer comp pick, not a Roman Anthony. Of course, clearly Sox are fine with that anyway
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 19, 2023 23:36:14 GMT -5
He’s one of the leaders on the team. I think we need to keep him around for 4-6 more year.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 20, 2023 9:23:35 GMT -5
Hasn't been a good look post ASG - seems a bit disengaged - part of me sees him as a trade chip.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 20, 2023 9:35:49 GMT -5
Verdugo to me is the type of guy you love to have for those 6 years of team control but are fine with watching him go in FA. Would I hate to see him sign an extension for 15-18M AAV for 4 years? No I wouldn't, but I wouldn't be upset if he signs something like that elsewhere too. Good role player but not a guy I bend over backwards to extend either.
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Post by briam on Jul 20, 2023 10:00:31 GMT -5
One concern that keeps popping up is Cora feeling the need to frequently light a fire under Verdugo. Don’t know if that’s the type you want to extend, especially since Cora might not be long for the manager position. He’s a good ball player but also seems to fit the Benintendi and Renfroe corner outfielder mold that Bloom has shipped out during his tenure.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Jul 20, 2023 10:49:35 GMT -5
You offer Verdugo a team friendly extension in the offseason, 3 years/$30 million or something along those lines. If he wants to hit free agency you keep him for the last year to try and make a run and then let him walk. A lot can change in a year and a half but I am sure Bloom will have plenty of corner OF depth at the minor league level to plug in, plus money to spend and a deep farm system to deal from.
I think at this point we know what we have in Verdugo - he's a good hitter with great command of the strike zone but not much power, and a solid defender in a corner. He'll go through stretches where he has a .370 wOBA and you think the breakout is coming but then will regress back to his normal ~.340 wOBA self. That is a solid player to have on your roster but it shouldn't be too hard to replace that production.
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