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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 21, 2023 17:18:16 GMT -5
My take is we should have a pretty good sense half way through the season on if this is worthwhile or not. Mostly to me it's about how his defense looks, if he can fix that trend I'd sign up for three more years at $10-$15 each (higher end would also depend on his hitting being more like a 110 wRC+) Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 21, 2023 17:20:19 GMT -5
My take is we should have a pretty good sense half way through the season on if this is worthwhile or not. Mostly to me it's about how his defense looks, if he can fix that trend I'd sign up for three more years at $10-$15 each (higher end would also depend on his hitting being more like a 110 wRC+) Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt Even if that weren't an oversimplified way of approaching the situation, how exactly did Barnes' contract hurt the Red Sox? I'm not saying it was a good contract or anything but they got off of it extremely easily and it's not like it is the one thing preventing them from making other moves like other albatross-level contracts were about a decade ago.
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hank
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Post by hank on Feb 21, 2023 17:25:36 GMT -5
I think Verdugo is going to have a great year. The guy looks to be in great shape. The talent is there. Add in the fact that he wants to be here and is a team leader should give the Red Sox motivation to extend him now.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 21, 2023 17:28:53 GMT -5
My take is we should have a pretty good sense half way through the season on if this is worthwhile or not. Mostly to me it's about how his defense looks, if he can fix that trend I'd sign up for three more years at $10-$15 each (higher end would also depend on his hitting being more like a 110 wRC+) Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt I'm not saying I want to sign Verdugo to a 15 mil AAV deal but isn't the rule of thumb that 1 WAR is worth about 7.5-8 mil? He's been roughly a 2-2.5 war guy and isn't yet in his 30s.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 21, 2023 17:38:25 GMT -5
Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt I'm not saying I want to sign Verdugo to a 15 mil AAV deal but isn't the rule of thumb that 1 WAR is worth about 7.5-8 mil? He's been roughly a 2-2.5 war guy and isn't yet in his 30s. Average free agent WAR has inched even higher to 8.5 last I checked. I think your estimate is very reasonable for what his agent would request. He's a tough case. Can easily see him outperforming that contract or falling into the replacement-level bin. Let's hope for the best regardless.
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Post by seamus on Feb 21, 2023 17:43:58 GMT -5
Verdugo's age is definitely relevant when assessing how easily replaceable he is. There may be a number of older guys who can duplicate Verdugo's ~2 WAR performance for ~7m AAV each year versus what his AAV might need to be to get an extension done, but the more times you spin that wheel on older guys, the more likely you are to catch a bad break. Even if one writes off the possibility of Verdugo putting it together for a year or two and providing great surplus value, Verdugo is more likely to sustain solid production over the next 4-5 years than most of the cheaper "readily available" outfielders. I'd rather pay him for 4 years at, say, 12 AAV versus trying to pick the right 34-year-old for one year at 7 million four straight seasons. It's doable, but seems to border on penny-wise and pound-foolish given the damage that a black hole in a corner outfield can cause.
For Verdugo, I think I'd try to buy out the 2024 arb year and the first 3 years of free agency (ages 28-31, though he's actually young for his baseball age with a mid-May birthday) for something like 14 AAV. Maybe tack on a player option for a 5th year at a lower number, if need be. He wouldn't have to get better for that to be solid value, and of course there's always that, I dunno, 20% chance he posts a 4+ WAR season or two to really make it a good deal.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 21, 2023 17:55:12 GMT -5
Those guys are all, at minimum, four years older than Verdugo, though. Carpenter is in his late 30's and was pretty much an afterthought in the league until he went nuclear for a stretch last year. They may be equivalent players based on last year's production but the market will not value them equally moving forward. No, but 'youth' wasn't in question, so you're completely missing the point and creating a new narrative. Verdugo, as he was in 2022, is very easily replaceable. His youth gives reason for optimism that he will improve, but if he doesn't, there will be a few outfielders available every off-season who can do what he's been doing for similar money. So you don't give him more money/years unless you're confident he will improve. As mentioned, 1.5-2 WAR outfielders are very easy to find, even for less than 7mil a year.Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason:
Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36
You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Feb 21, 2023 18:10:11 GMT -5
No, but 'youth' wasn't in question, so you're completely missing the point and creating a new narrative. Verdugo, as he was in 2022, is very easily replaceable. His youth gives reason for optimism that he will improve, but if he doesn't, there will be a few outfielders available every off-season who can do what he's been doing for similar money. So you don't give him more money/years unless you're confident he will improve. As mentioned, 1.5-2 WAR outfielders are very easy to find, even for less than 7mil a year.Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason: Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36 You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
I listed the outfielders in his range from last year's production already, the projections obviously like Verdugo more because of his age, which is fair. I guarantee you none of those players' teams are expecting 1.5-2 WAR out of them - they're looking for more. That's why you pay more for upside.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 21, 2023 18:25:43 GMT -5
Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason: Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36 You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
I listed the outfielders in his range from last year's production already, the projections obviously like Verdugo more because of his age, which is fair. I guarantee you none of those players' teams are expecting 1.5-2 WAR out of them - they're looking for more. That's why you pay more for upside. You didn't list the outfielders in the range of "1.5-2 WAR," which is the kind of player you claim can easily be found for $7 million/year. The guys you listed with sub-$7 million salaries have these WAR projections, per the fangraphs FA tracker:
Carpenter: 0.8 Peterson: 1.3 Peralta: 0.8 Profar: 1.1
The cost of WAR is pretty well-known. It was $8 million/WAR the last couple of years, trending toward $10 million. Both the guys you listed and the guys I listed pretty much confirm that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 21, 2023 18:30:10 GMT -5
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 21, 2023 19:37:50 GMT -5
My take is we should have a pretty good sense half way through the season on if this is worthwhile or not. Mostly to me it's about how his defense looks, if he can fix that trend I'd sign up for three more years at $10-$15 each (higher end would also depend on his hitting being more like a 110 wRC+) Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt I mean 110 isn't exactly a crazy three month stretch. He could hit as well as he has the last two years and be worth that if the defense/baserunning bounce back which was my point. If he plays average or above defense and hits to a 110 wRC+ he's worth more than $15m/year, especially if you're only paying him through his age 30 or 31 season.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Feb 21, 2023 19:57:58 GMT -5
Sure sounds like a guy who is ready to prove he's worth at least as much as his mate Yoshi vs. one willing to go home town dscount on an extention. I like it !!
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Post by melvinhoggs on Feb 21, 2023 20:03:29 GMT -5
No, but 'youth' wasn't in question, so you're completely missing the point and creating a new narrative. Verdugo, as he was in 2022, is very easily replaceable. His youth gives reason for optimism that he will improve, but if he doesn't, there will be a few outfielders available every off-season who can do what he's been doing for similar money. So you don't give him more money/years unless you're confident he will improve. As mentioned, 1.5-2 WAR outfielders are very easy to find, even for less than 7mil a year.Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason:
Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36
You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
To be fair, all three of those guys that didn't accept the QO are very high upside/post-injury plays. All three have shown they can be 4+ WAR players at their best, which Verdugo hasn't even come close to sniffing. He has age and durability (and to some degree pedigree) on his side so I'm not expecting him to accept a lowball offer – but I wouldn't touch Benintendi numbers (5/75) with a ten-foot pole unless he shows some signs of life in 2023.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,195
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Post by cdj on Feb 21, 2023 21:01:48 GMT -5
Gotta improve on that grills collection, .300 season coming
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Post by seamus on Feb 21, 2023 22:07:11 GMT -5
Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason: Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36 You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
To be fair, all three of those guys that didn't accept the QO are very high upside/post-injury plays. All three have shown they can be 4+ WAR players at their best, which Verdugo hasn't even come close to sniffing.
He has age and durability (and to some degree pedigree) on his side so I'm not expecting him to accept a lowball offer – but I wouldn't touch Benintendi numbers (5/75) with a ten-foot pole unless he shows some signs of life in 2023. If you prorate his 2020, he was on pace for about 6 WAR. That's at least sniffing distance, I'd say. Maybe only 50-some odd games, but the All-Star potential is clearly there and a 4+ WAR season wouldn't be a surprise.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2023 0:39:28 GMT -5
Paying Verdugo $15m per year because he had a good 3 month stretch at the plate is exactly how you sign bad contracts…. See Barnes, Matt Even if that weren't an oversimplified way of approaching the situation, how exactly did Barnes' contract hurt the Red Sox? I'm not saying it was a good contract or anything but they got off of it extremely easily and it's not like it is the one thing preventing them from making other moves like other albatross-level contracts were about a decade ago. Well it hurt them because they had to keep pitching him for so long and he was terrible. They also finished over the tax last year and it cost them a lot in this coming draft. They also didn’t “get off it extremely easy” as they are still paying most of it. It’s also the salary they expected to be paying to a good piece that they didn’t. But should one bad contract at 8m hurt the Red Sox, no not really, but that doesn’t mean you should spend real money on mediocrity and $15m is real money.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Feb 22, 2023 1:22:12 GMT -5
To be fair, all three of those guys that didn't accept the QO are very high upside/post-injury plays. All three have shown they can be 4+ WAR players at their best, which Verdugo hasn't even come close to sniffing.
He has age and durability (and to some degree pedigree) on his side so I'm not expecting him to accept a lowball offer – but I wouldn't touch Benintendi numbers (5/75) with a ten-foot pole unless he shows some signs of life in 2023. If you prorate his 2020, he was on pace for about 6 WAR. That's at least sniffing distance, I'd say. Maybe only 50-some odd games, but the All-Star potential is clearly there and a 4+ WAR season wouldn't be a surprise. I mean, no – I don't really consider that sniffing distance. I'm cool with it if you do, but it was a third of a season in a weird year where there were a lot of oddities given the circumstances. I'm not writing those PAs off completely, but he's had 1200+ healthy PAs since then where he's been very middling. You also kinda breezed past my main point: there's a big difference between doing it and having the "potential" or "showing glimpses" of doing it. Those guys got contracts that reflected this, as did Benintendi – who already has a 5 WAR season under his belt and like Verdugo is young enough to believe could find his way back to some of that magic. I'm not a Verdugo hater, far from it. But if he's asking me for a 5/75 contract, I don't hesitate for a second before turning it down (or, more likely, countering with a significantly lower figure). I'm aware that without hitting on a lottery ticket, 2 WAR players are seldom had for $7M or whatever the low figure was being tossed around – but I don't think the players you mentioned (Conforto, Benintendi, Haniger) are good comps.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 22, 2023 10:19:38 GMT -5
5 Years 50 mill.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Feb 22, 2023 10:42:11 GMT -5
Verdugo fits the team, and the outfield is riddled with holes and question marks for the next several years. Yes we Rafaella and Bleis but we don't know what Ceddanne will do offensively if anything and Bleis is 18 and years away. Even if Rafaella blossoms and Yoshida is great in LF you're still down an outfielder under the best-case scenario (one that excludes Duran figuring it out for the moment)
Verdugo not at his best has still been a decent player, and his best years might be in front of him. I'm not saying you break the bank for this guy, or you prioritize resigning him the way they did with Devers and should have done differently with Bogaerts but he's a great candidate to extend at the right price. I think he's better than he was last year, and could easily outplay a reasonable contract for him.
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Post by seamus on Feb 22, 2023 10:42:24 GMT -5
If you prorate his 2020, he was on pace for about 6 WAR. That's at least sniffing distance, I'd say. Maybe only 50-some odd games, but the All-Star potential is clearly there and a 4+ WAR season wouldn't be a surprise. I mean, no – I don't really consider that sniffing distance. I'm cool with it if you do, but it was a third of a season in a weird year where there were a lot of oddities given the circumstances. I'm not writing those PAs off completely, but he's had 1200+ healthy PAs since then where he's been very middling. You also kinda breezed past my main point: there's a big difference between doing it and having the "potential" or "showing glimpses" of doing it. Those guys got contracts that reflected this, as did Benintendi – who already has a 5 WAR season under his belt and like Verdugo is young enough to believe could find his way back to some of that magic. I'm not a Verdugo hater, far from it. But if he's asking me for a 5/75 contract, I don't hesitate for a second before turning it down (or, more likely, countering with a significantly lower figure). I'm aware that without hitting on a lottery ticket, 2 WAR players are seldom had for $7M or whatever the low figure was being tossed around – but I don't think the players you mentioned (Conforto, Benintendi, Haniger) are good comps. (It was somebody else that named those guys as comps, but they are probably the tier of player whose contracts will influence Verdugo's market most heavily._ I wasn't trying to breeze past your point; I think your words conveyed something different than you might have meant. Verdugo's 2020 may not put him at the same level as those guys, but it's enough to call it sniffing distance. If he has to actually sustain the level you're talking about, that means you're not looking for "sniffing distance" of being a 4+ WAR player - you're looking for actually being a 4+ WAR player. Considering he was on pace for 6 WAR rather than 4, he almost certainly would have achieved the same level of success that has earned Benintendi that 5/75 type of contract. 2020 was a weird year, but I tend to think that's more of an explanation for underperformance than a reason to discount success under difficult circumstances. He was also pretty good in 2022 after the first 2 months, where I believe he was massively underperforming his expected stats and also dealing with that fractured toe. I dunno, I think I've seen enough to feel confident he can be above average without needing crazy good luck. 5/75 would probably be close to the top of the range that I'd consider, but I don't think it's outlandish. He wouldn't have to get better for it to be fair value, and I think the success he enjoyed in 2020 and in the second half of 2022 make me feel like there's a good chance of getting significant surplus value. I would try to get something like 4/56 or 5/65, if possible.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 22, 2023 10:54:16 GMT -5
I wish there was a poll function that operated outside of the first comment in the post, because I'd be interested to see the result of who'd be interested in Verdugo at, say, 3/33. I think that's pretty fair value and would probably take it in a heartbeat, but it seems like there are people somehow opposed. Worst case, it's extremely tradeable. 3/36 that kicks in for the 2024 season sounds about right. That's Renfroe money. That buys us 2 yrs of his FA years and means a dependable, but far from elite, corner OF at a decent cost. To your point, this should be a very tradeable contract if he gets pushed out of the way. i think that is a reasonable number, with a good potential for surplus. I am not he sure would sign that. He has to probably be looking for a little more future stability. I might even kick in an option or 2 for a bit more cash, if the Sox were interested. i think he is laying the groundwork here. If he has a real good year, he can point to wanting to be in Boston and he can negotiate from a stronger position.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 22, 2023 10:57:50 GMT -5
As an aside, if we are considering this player in the current market, i don't see 10-15 as a stretch. Let's consider this past FA season, market scarcity, his age, his pedigree. I can easily see a team taking that chance at that value, and with that construct, that is his market value.
The Sox may not agree, but i think it is a legit number
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2023 11:05:23 GMT -5
3/36 that kicks in for the 2024 season sounds about right. That's Renfroe money. That buys us 2 yrs of his FA years and means a dependable, but far from elite, corner OF at a decent cost. To your point, this should be a very tradeable contract if he gets pushed out of the way. i think that is a reasonable number, with a good potential for surplus. I am not he sure would sign that. He has to probably be looking for a little more future stability. I might even kick in an option or 2 for a bit more cash, if the Sox were interested. i think he is laying the groundwork here. If he has a real good year, he can point to wanting to be in Boston and he can negotiate from a stronger position.My sense of Verdugo - and I mean this as a compliment - is that he would not be so calculated about this sort of thing.
In any case, the number that comes to mind as both a good value for the team and something Verdugo might plausibly accept is $12 million/year for 4 years or so. The problem is that they just spent $90 million on a guy who can only play LF, so Verdugo has to really show he can be good in RF.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Feb 22, 2023 11:08:40 GMT -5
Yoshida, if he hits and gets on base anything like the organization apparently expects him to, is ticketed to be in LF for most of the next 5 years, unless he shows himself to be a complete butcher out there. If that is how it plays out, is everyone OK with how Verdugo can handle RF, especially in Fenway? The positional situation has to be factored in.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 22, 2023 11:09:03 GMT -5
i think that is a reasonable number, with a good potential for surplus. I am not he sure would sign that. He has to probably be looking for a little more future stability. I might even kick in an option or 2 for a bit more cash, if the Sox were interested. i think he is laying the groundwork here. If he has a real good year, he can point to wanting to be in Boston and he can negotiate from a stronger position.My sense of Verdugo - and I mean this as a compliment - is that he would not be so calculated about this sort of thing.it isn't the context i am talking about, it just doing his due diligence being his own advocate. It doesn't hurt to let it be known you want to be in Boston, plenty of players don't. add: and of course, they want to make as much money as they can.
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