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Verdugo Extension Discussion
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 22, 2023 11:19:16 GMT -5
Here are all the free agent outfielders with 1.5-2.0 fWAR projections and what they signed for this offseason:
Haniger (1.9): 3/43.5 Bellinger (1.7): 1/17.5 Pederson (1.6): 1/19.65 (took the QO) Conforto (1.6): 2/36
You are just way off on the valuation here. And on top of that Verdugo's Steamer/Zips projections are actually in the 2-3 WAR range. That puts him on the same tier as Benintendi, who just got 5/75.
To be fair, all three of those guys that didn't accept the QO are very high upside/post-injury plays. All three have shown they can be 4+ WAR players at their best, which Verdugo hasn't even come close to sniffing.He has age and durability (and to some degree pedigree) on his side so I'm not expecting him to accept a lowball offer – but I wouldn't touch Benintendi numbers (5/75) with a ten-foot pole unless he shows some signs of life in 2023. He put up 1.9 fWAR in 53 G in 2020. That's a 5.8 fWAR/162 pace. Yes, it's a SSS, but it's still a 3 WAR season if you get 2021-2022 Verdugo for another ~100 games. I think the biggest question with him is whether he can improve his defense in RF. I believe in his bat, so if he can defend in RF like he did in 2020 I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4 WAR season out of him one day. If his defense is more like the 2022 version, though, he's fighting an uphill battle to be much more than average.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 22, 2023 11:21:57 GMT -5
3/36 that kicks in for the 2024 season sounds about right. That's Renfroe money. That buys us 2 yrs of his FA years and means a dependable, but far from elite, corner OF at a decent cost. To your point, this should be a very tradeable contract if he gets pushed out of the way. i think that is a reasonable number, with a good potential for surplus. I am not he sure would sign that. He has to probably be looking for a little more future stability. I might even kick in an option or 2 for a bit more cash, if the Sox were interested. i think he is laying the groundwork here. If he has a real good year, he can point to wanting to be in Boston and he can negotiate from a stronger position. That only strengthens his negotiating position if he wants to go somewhere else. If he wants to stay in Boston admitting he wants to stay there wouldn't exactly be holding them to the fire. Either way my impression of Verdugo is he's just being genuine here.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 22, 2023 11:33:51 GMT -5
i think that is a reasonable number, with a good potential for surplus. I am not he sure would sign that. He has to probably be looking for a little more future stability. I might even kick in an option or 2 for a bit more cash, if the Sox were interested. i think he is laying the groundwork here. If he has a real good year, he can point to wanting to be in Boston and he can negotiate from a stronger position. That only strengthens his negotiating position if he wants to go somewhere else. If he wants to stay in Boston admitting he wants to stay there wouldn't exactly be holding them to the fire. Either way my impression of Verdugo is he's just being genuine here. a year of production helps his negotiating position with the Sox or anyone else. But he isn't a FA, so the only team he can negotiate with this year is the Sox. I never said he wasn't being genuine. I said he was laying the groundwork to want to stay in Boston, and what follows if he has a better year, is a stronger negotiating position to command more dollars. I am sorry to use this post as reference, could have easily used incandenza's, but misunderstanding context is an endemic problem on this site. My post is not a smear on him at all. The response's to my post aren't debate, but a quick, biased blurb on my post. If you are interested in discussing my point (context), don't infer my posts, engage in a meaningful way.
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Post by melvinhoggs on Feb 22, 2023 11:37:25 GMT -5
I mean, no – I don't really consider that sniffing distance. I'm cool with it if you do, but it was a third of a season in a weird year where there were a lot of oddities given the circumstances. I'm not writing those PAs off completely, but he's had 1200+ healthy PAs since then where he's been very middling. You also kinda breezed past my main point: there's a big difference between doing it and having the "potential" or "showing glimpses" of doing it. Those guys got contracts that reflected this, as did Benintendi – who already has a 5 WAR season under his belt and like Verdugo is young enough to believe could find his way back to some of that magic. I'm not a Verdugo hater, far from it. But if he's asking me for a 5/75 contract, I don't hesitate for a second before turning it down (or, more likely, countering with a significantly lower figure). I'm aware that without hitting on a lottery ticket, 2 WAR players are seldom had for $7M or whatever the low figure was being tossed around – but I don't think the players you mentioned (Conforto, Benintendi, Haniger) are good comps. (It was somebody else that named those guys as comps, but they are probably the tier of player whose contracts will influence Verdugo's market most heavily._ I wasn't trying to breeze past your point; I think your words conveyed something different than you might have meant. Verdugo's 2020 may not put him at the same level as those guys, but it's enough to call it sniffing distance. If he has to actually sustain the level you're talking about, that means you're not looking for "sniffing distance" of being a 4+ WAR player - you're looking for actually being a 4+ WAR player. Considering he was on pace for 6 WAR rather than 4, he almost certainly would have achieved the same level of success that has earned Benintendi that 5/75 type of contract. 2020 was a weird year, but I tend to think that's more of an explanation for underperformance than a reason to discount success under difficult circumstances. He was also pretty good in 2022 after the first 2 months, where I believe he was massively underperforming his expected stats and also dealing with that fractured toe. I dunno, I think I've seen enough to feel confident he can be above average without needing crazy good luck. 5/75 would probably be close to the top of the range that I'd consider, but I don't think it's outlandish. He wouldn't have to get better for it to be fair value, and I think the success he enjoyed in 2020 and in the second half of 2022 make me feel like there's a good chance of getting significant surplus value. I would try to get something like 4/56 or 5/65, if possible. Sorry about that, I meant to say "that were mentioned" not "that you mentioned". I still just don't consider that "sniffing distance" (an abstract measurement, I know), but I don't have a problem with it if you do. I know some other people have brought up the rate stats of 2020 as well, but the fact is he hasn't shown he can do that over a full season. I also think the conversation would be different if he played a third of a season in 2022 and put up those numbers, versus doing it in 2020 and then having 1200 plate appearances afterward that make it look even flukier than it was. And in the context of those contracts, I actually am talking about sniffing distance. If he was a sustained 4+ WAR player (or that's what I was referencing), I'd be talking about a huge 100M+ contract. But for Bellinger, Haniger, Conforto, etc. – they got contracts that said "hey, we know you haven't done it consistently and/or you've been injured, but we have proof that you can do it and we're willing to bet on the upside". Verdugo not only hasn't done it consistently, he hasn't done it at all. Everyone has their differences in valuation – 5/75 is a non-starter for me given what he has actually done. I think Verdugo's pedigree is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. 4/56 is a starting point I can live with.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2023 11:43:49 GMT -5
That only strengthens his negotiating position if he wants to go somewhere else. If he wants to stay in Boston admitting he wants to stay there wouldn't exactly be holding them to the fire. Either way my impression of Verdugo is he's just being genuine here. a year of production helps his negotiating position with the Sox or anyone else. But he isn't a FA, so the only team he can negotiate with this year is the Sox. I never said he wasn't being genuine. I said he was laying the groundwork to want to stay in Boston, and what follows if he has a better year, is a stronger negotiating position to command more dollars. I am sorry to use this post as reference, could have easily used incandenza's, but misunderstanding context is an endemic problem on this site. My post is not a smear on him at all. The response's to my post aren't debate, but a quick, biased blurb on my post. If you are interested in discussing my point (context), don't infer my posts, engage in a meaningful way. I don't think anyone was being "biased" toward your post. You said he was "laying the groundwork," which usually implies doing something with intention. I see now that's not what you meant, but surely you can see where the misunderstanding might have come from? And no one responded to you in a remotely disrespectful way.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2023 12:31:18 GMT -5
Just because something is justifiably market value doesn’t mean it’s smart to pay it. Just throwing that out there.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Feb 22, 2023 12:42:11 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Feb 22, 2023 12:47:39 GMT -5
Just because something is justifiably market value doesn’t mean it’s smart to pay it. Just throwing that out there. True! You only want to pay market value for a guy who is disproportionately valuable for your team. E.g., it would be insane to go 11/280 for a 30-year-old 4-5 WAR shortstop when you already have a cheap 27-year-old 3 WAR shortstop on your roster...
Ahem. Distracted myself there. As for Verdugo, is he an especially good fit for the Red Sox? Maybe not, since they only have one corner OF spot available, and it's a position where they might be inclined to invest a lot in good defense. As a countervailing factor, they're weak in corner OF prospects, so it might make sense to lock that down for a few years with a reliably average player at a fair price.
But I'd certainly want to see what his defense looks like in his new BSOHL (skinny edition) form before I did that.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Feb 22, 2023 13:01:46 GMT -5
The only reason for the Sox to broach the subject of an extension for a guy with Verdugo's track record is to get a decently "home town" discount. It isn't to pay him market value, or more appropriately, it's to pay him on the lower end of market value. The Sox are taking on the injury risk and the risk that this is simply what Verdugo is. Verdugo is forgoing the ability to get market value or more,in two years and trading it for stability and the security that he'll be where he wants to be. The contact itself is all the good faith the team would need to invest. Both sides are banking on Verdugo breaking out, but how much extra monetarily should the Sox spend on that bet? In a just world the next contract would be where Verdugo Cash's in on any "break out."
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 22, 2023 13:06:34 GMT -5
Verdugo fits the team, and the outfield is riddled with holes and question marks for the next several years. Yes we Rafaella and Bleis but we don't know what Ceddanne will do offensively if anything and Bleis is 18 and years away. Even if Rafaella blossoms and Yoshida is great in LF you're still down an outfielder under the best-case scenario (one that excludes Duran figuring it out for the moment) Verdugo not at his best has still been a decent player, and his best years might be in front of him. I'm not saying you break the bank for this guy, or you prioritize resigning him the way they did with Devers and should have done differently with Bogaerts but he's a great candidate to extend at the right price. I think he's better than he was last year, and could easily outplay a reasonable contract for him. Agree and he’s 26. He’s still not in his prime. Everyone is in love with the ceiling talk but the realist will look at his floor. The man played 152 games last season which means he played through injuries. If floor is .280 10 homers and 160 hits and doesn’t strike out. I would say his floor would be the best lead off hitter we’ve had in a while. This goes back to my point that Cora isn’t doing the best job. This man should be our leadoff hitter. Crazy that 166 hits in 152 games doesn’t impress you guys. Guy avgs more than 1 hit a game. Sorry those stats are not advanced enough to get you guys excited. Top 20 in hits to be precise. He was right behind X who was 14 and in front of Devers at 20. You’re telling me a Verdugo-X-Devers 1-3 wouldn’t of produced more runs and won more games. Of course it would of.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Feb 22, 2023 13:31:48 GMT -5
The new rules might make Verdugo a more viable leadoff guy if he's slimmed down and regained some base running/speed. You'd like him to walk more, but if you're getting the 2021 Verdugo, I could live with him leading off for this team. Verdugo does seem to adapt well, so perhaps he'd see more pitches etc. If he were leading off.
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 22, 2023 19:02:41 GMT -5
Just because something is justifiably market value doesn’t mean it’s smart to pay it. Just throwing that out there. True! You only want to pay market value for a guy who is disproportionately valuable for your team. E.g., it would be insane to go 11/280 for a 30-year-old 4-5 WAR shortstop when you already have a cheap 27-year-old 3 WAR shortstop on your roster...
Ahem. Distracted myself there. As for Verdugo, is he an especially good fit for the Red Sox? Maybe not, since they only have one corner OF spot available, and it's a position where they might be inclined to invest a lot in good defense. As a countervailing factor, they're weak in corner OF prospects, so it might make sense to lock that down for a few years with a reliably average player at a fair price.
But I'd certainly want to see what his defense looks like in his new BSOHL (skinny edition) form before I did that.
Having a “center field” caliber defender in right field has been a good play in Fenway.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 22, 2023 19:49:54 GMT -5
True! You only want to pay market value for a guy who is disproportionately valuable for your team. E.g., it would be insane to go 11/280 for a 30-year-old 4-5 WAR shortstop when you already have a cheap 27-year-old 3 WAR shortstop on your roster...
Ahem. Distracted myself there. As for Verdugo, is he an especially good fit for the Red Sox? Maybe not, since they only have one corner OF spot available, and it's a position where they might be inclined to invest a lot in good defense. As a countervailing factor, they're weak in corner OF prospects, so it might make sense to lock that down for a few years with a reliably average player at a fair price.
But I'd certainly want to see what his defense looks like in his new BSOHL (skinny edition) form before I did that.
Having a “center field” caliber defender in right field has been a good play in Fenway. On this front, not picking on you cause I see this a lot, but to me this seems like a bonus that people here sometimes describe as a necessity. You didn’t exactly say that, but my point is multiple ways to skin a cat and they’ll be able to figure it out if their right fielder is average defensively but takes below market value cause he wants to be here.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 23, 2023 2:40:34 GMT -5
Agree and he’s 26. He’s still not in his prime. Everyone is in love with the ceiling talk but the realist will look at his floor. The man played 152 games last season which means he played through injuries. If floor is .280 10 homers and 160 hits and doesn’t strike out. I would say his floor would be the best lead off hitter we’ve had in a while. This goes back to my point that Cora isn’t doing the best job. This man should be our leadoff hitter. Crazy that 166 hits in 152 games doesn’t impress you guys. Guy avgs more than 1 hit a game. Sorry those stats are not advanced enough to get you guys excited. Top 20 in hits to be precise. He was right behind X who was 14 and in front of Devers at 20. You’re telling me a Verdugo-X-Devers 1-3 wouldn’t have produced more runs and won more games. Of course it would of. As much as I like Verdugo and agree with everyone that he's primed for a bigger year, you can't sign everyone and the team already put a lot of their money into Devers/Story/Yoshida. I think they've invested all they can on hitting for now, especially with a hitter-heavy farm system. Throw in the uncertainty and the 2 years of control they already have, and I'm just not seeing it. Honestly, I'm not seeing it from Verdugo's side either given his upside. I don't think either party makes it to the negotiating table unless there's some unique opportunity. So you don’t think they can offer Dugie 4-6 years at 10-12 a year? Interesting
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Post by rjp313jr on Feb 23, 2023 5:23:09 GMT -5
Having a “center field” caliber defender in right field has been a good play in Fenway. On this front, not picking on you cause I see this a lot, but to me this seems like a bonus that people here sometimes describe as a necessity. You didn’t exactly say that, but my point is multiple ways to skin a cat and they’ll be able to figure it out if their right fielder is average defensively but takes below market value cause he wants to be here. Having a “center field” caliber defender in right field has been a good play in Fenway. On this front, not picking on you cause I see this a lot, but to me this seems like a bonus that people here sometimes describe as a necessity. You didn’t exactly say that, but my point is multiple ways to skin a cat and they’ll be able to figure it out if their right fielder is average defensively but takes below market value cause he wants to be here. My comment was inspired by the notion they are “weak in corner outfield prospects”.
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Post by manfred on Feb 23, 2023 11:33:19 GMT -5
My concern with a Verdugo extension is bigger than him in isolation. Is he worth, say 5/$50 mill? I have a hard time seeing how that isn’t a good deal. Maybe a great deal. In 5 years, he will have to fall of a cliff not to be ~10 WAR.
But… the question to me is is he good *enough* to be plugged in in RF for 5 years? It means you have a complementary piece out there… good! But they are light on centerpieces, and RF can be a centerpiece position. If the relative savings are invested in a couple of studs… great. But you run the risk of locking in a decent-but-not-great OF for the length of, say, Casas’s control.
TL;DR: would you be better of taking the money, adding to it, getting a better RF?
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Post by 0ap0 on Feb 23, 2023 11:47:58 GMT -5
If it's a good contract but a bad fit you can always trade him.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 23, 2023 11:53:13 GMT -5
My concern with a Verdugo extension is bigger than him in isolation. Is he worth, say 5/$50 mill? I have a hard time seeing how that isn’t a good deal. Maybe a great deal. In 5 years, he will have to fall of a cliff not to be ~10 WAR. But… the question to me is is he good *enough* to be plugged in in RF for 5 years? It means you have a complementary piece out there… good! But they are light on centerpieces, and RF can be a centerpiece position. If the relative savings are invested in a couple of studs… great. But you run the risk of locking in a decent-but-not-great OF for the length of, say, Casas’s control. TL;DR: would you be better of taking the money, adding to it, getting a better RF? Yeah, I thiink I mostly agree with this. There's an opportunity cost: Verdugo may be fine in RF (pending how his defense looks this year), but having a 2 WAR player out there means you don't have a 3 or 4 WAR player out there.
And with all their top/imminent prospects being up-the-middle types, and with Casas at 1B, Devers at 3B, and Yoshida in LF, none of whom can really be moved to another position, you figure RF is one of the few positions where they could add an impact player, through trade or free agency.
Countervailing concern, though: what players will even be available? The FA class in 2025 looks a lot like this year's minus Judge: i.e., a bunch of options that don't really look better than Verdugo. Or, well, there's Juan Soto, but I don't see him in RF or Fenway; if they'd even be in on him at all it would be for LF or DH. So they might would have to go the trade route.
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 23, 2023 13:29:20 GMT -5
So you don’t think they can offer Dugie 4-6 years at 10-12 a year? Interesting They have the resources to do anything with any individual player. Maybe a more accurate statement is I don't think it a good strategic use of resources to spend too much money on Verdugo right now given his inconsistent track record/medical history and considering the team's current strengths/weaknesses. My initial take was that they offer 3/$24M with a $10M option and the expectation that there would be some negotiating, so I'm fine with the very bottom of your range as long as it comes with some team flexibility. However, at 6/$12 (someone else said $15!) and you're probably paying full market value for his best possible career trajectory. I don't think they "can" (or sub in a better word) do that. That's especially true since he's under team control for the next two years anyway. Personally, if they offer Verdugo $75-90M with his current resume that starts falling into "but you couldn't sign Bogaerts?!?!?" territory for me. That makes sense. 75 mill for an OF that we have a weak farm of is very comparable to 11 years 280 mill to a 30 year old SS after back to back first round picks and our number 1 prospect - top 10 in baseball is a SS. You seem smart so i’ll let that slide but you have to understand a player with his passion and wants to be here. Good clubhouse guy. That’s all worth money. Especially after hearing the shit talk pissed him off and he put in work trimmed down. You don’t think a guaranteed deal would do even more? Also this new market 12 mill is nothing for an OF. Also calling Verdugo inconsistent is wild. He’s actually been one of most consistent players. He played over 145 games the last 2 years so like I previously said proving he’s willing to grind it out and play hurt and had a TON of bad luck last year and still played pretty well. If you think he should be an All Star for 10-12 million then I have to disagree.
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 0:20:35 GMT -5
Unless he wants to sign for something around 7m annually, then I'm saying no to Verdugo. He's a fine enough player, but this team needs to allocate resources to real impact players. Guys like Verdugo should be easily replaced by a good GM. Easily replaced? Find me an acquirable 2 WAR outfielder who plays 145+ games, and for your $7m threshold. But Verdugo, himself wasn’t a “2 WAR outfielder” last year. He wasn’t even close, actually(DESPITE playing all those games)!
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 0:23:24 GMT -5
No, but 'youth' wasn't in question, so you're completely missing the point and creating a new narrative. Verdugo, as he was in 2022, is very easily replaceable. His youth gives reason for optimism that he will improve, but if he doesn't, there will be a few outfielders available every off-season who can do what he's been doing for similar money. So you don't give him more money/years unless you're confident he will improve. As mentioned, 1.5-2 WAR outfielders are very easy to find, even for less than 7mil a year. I'm pretty sure 4 guys being available doesn't really qualify as "easy to find", but whatever. Youth absolutely factors into it because with Verdugo you are paying him with the understanding that his performance is likely to sustain or improve, you aren't paying a 35 year old hoping he gets better, you're doing it praying he can hang on. There's only one person here trying to force a narrative, partner, and it ain't me. Why is his performance “likely to improve” given that he’s gotten worse every season since 2020?
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 24, 2023 2:44:40 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure 4 guys being available doesn't really qualify as "easy to find", but whatever. Youth absolutely factors into it because with Verdugo you are paying him with the understanding that his performance is likely to sustain or improve, you aren't paying a 35 year old hoping he gets better, you're doing it praying he can hang on. There's only one person here trying to force a narrative, partner, and it ain't me. Why is his performance “likely to improve” given that he’s gotten worse every season since 2020? After June 1st last year, He slashed .302/.355/.434/.789 with 8 HR and had a 121 wRC+. On top of all of this, Verdugo played through multiple injuries in the 2022 season that kept him “in shambles”. A foot (big toe) hairline fracture and shoulder issues aren’t the best conditions to play through. You guys understand WAR has a ton to do with where you’re at in the batting order correct? In the last 2 seasons, he’s struck out in less than 15% of his PA and has 323 hits in 298 games. He’s worth 12-14 mill year. Period. www.thehalftime.app/amp/p/1cqh/Understanding-Market-Value-The-Alex-Verdugo-Episode
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Post by yuchangclan on Feb 24, 2023 9:56:49 GMT -5
Why is his performance “likely to improve” given that he’s gotten worse every season since 2020? After June 1st last year, He slashed .302/.355/.434/.789 with 8 HR and had a 121 wRC+. On top of all of this, Verdugo played through multiple injuries in the 2022 season that kept him “in shambles”. A foot (big toe) hairline fracture and shoulder issues aren’t the best conditions to play through. You guys understand WAR has a ton to do with where you’re at in the batting order correct? In the last 2 seasons, he’s struck out in less than 15% of his PA and has 323 hits in 298 games. He’s worth 12-14 mill year. Period. www.thehalftime.app/amp/p/1cqh/Understanding-Market-Value-The-Alex-Verdugo-Episode I appreciate the cherry-picked sample, but I’m talking about an overall decline that has spanned Verdugo’s entire tenure in Boston. He looked like a future star in 2020 and has slipped significantly ever since. I understand that he’s on the Red Sox so everyone is optimistic, but if this same player put up the same stats for the Brewers(for example), I don’t think anyone would be excited about this career progression. As for the injuries, I have to believe that anyone who plays that many games is battling assorted maladies. It’s part of the gig. I think Verdugo is at a critical juncture of his career. If he continues to slide, he might be more of a candidate for a non-tender than he is for an extension.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 24, 2023 10:03:48 GMT -5
After June 1st last year, He slashed .302/.355/.434/.789 with 8 HR and had a 121 wRC+. On top of all of this, Verdugo played through multiple injuries in the 2022 season that kept him “in shambles”. A foot (big toe) hairline fracture and shoulder issues aren’t the best conditions to play through. You guys understand WAR has a ton to do with where you’re at in the batting order correct? In the last 2 seasons, he’s struck out in less than 15% of his PA and has 323 hits in 298 games. He’s worth 12-14 mill year. Period. www.thehalftime.app/amp/p/1cqh/Understanding-Market-Value-The-Alex-Verdugo-Episode I appreciate the cherry-picked sample, but I’m talking about an overall decline that has spanned Verdugo’s entire tenure in Boston. He looked like a future star in 2020 and has slipped significantly ever since. I understand that he’s on the Red Sox so everyone is optimistic, but if this same player put up the same stats for the Brewers(for example), I don’t think anyone would be excited about this career progression. As for the injuries, I have to believe that anyone who plays that many games is battling assorted maladies. It’s part of the gig. I think Verdugo is at a critical juncture of his career. If he continues to slide, he might be more of a candidate for a non-tender than he is for an extension. Verdugo's xwOBA actually improved from 2020 to 2021, he got pretty lucky in 2020 (.371 BABIP if xwOBA isn't your flavor of choice), I don't think offensively at least he has a clear downward pattern in Boston. His xwOBA was down slightly last year from 2021 as was his defense, but - reasons for optimism - as bosoxnation said he reportedly had a broken toe hindering him the first two months of 2022 (so maybe June 1 isn't so arbitrary), and the team is being pretty open that they aren't pleased with how he changed his body and he's come into camp looking significantly slimmer.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 24, 2023 10:10:00 GMT -5
My concern with a Verdugo extension is bigger than him in isolation. Is he worth, say 5/$50 mill? I have a hard time seeing how that isn’t a good deal. Maybe a great deal. In 5 years, he will have to fall of a cliff not to be ~10 WAR. But… the question to me is is he good *enough* to be plugged in in RF for 5 years? It means you have a complementary piece out there… good! But they are light on centerpieces, and RF can be a centerpiece position. If the relative savings are invested in a couple of studs… great. But you run the risk of locking in a decent-but-not-great OF for the length of, say, Casas’s control. TL;DR: would you be better of taking the money, adding to it, getting a better RF? Yeah, I thiink I mostly agree with this. There's an opportunity cost: Verdugo may be fine in RF (pending how his defense looks this year), but having a 2 WAR player out there means you don't have a 3 or 4 WAR player out there.
And with all their top/imminent prospects being up-the-middle types, and with Casas at 1B, Devers at 3B, and Yoshida in LF, none of whom can really be moved to another position, you figure RF is one of the few positions where they could add an impact player, through trade or free agency.
Countervailing concern, though: what players will even be available? The FA class in 2025 looks a lot like this year's minus Judge: i.e., a bunch of options that don't really look better than Verdugo. Or, well, there's Juan Soto, but I don't see him in RF or Fenway; if they'd even be in on him at all it would be for LF or DH. So they might would have to go the trade route. Your last point is really the thing for me, they can't will a 3-4 WAR available outfielder into existence. If Verdugo is willing to sign somewhat below market value their best choice may be to have him as a complimentary place and figure out how to find the stars in other places, and they have some opportunities for that on the current 40-man roster at LF, 3B, SS, 1B, CF and they should have more certainty on each of these before they need to make a decision on Verdugo. Also, I don't think we should be ruling out Verdugo becoming a 3-WAR player, he's only 27, and they could have the answer to that before the season is out too. For what it's worth though, because of his performance in the clutch the last two years he probably has been worth 3+ WAR, but I am still in the camp of not buying the predictiveness of that and don't think we should pay for it.
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