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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 11:36:11 GMT -5
Some E-Rod numbers: He had very good inherited runner support. His ERA with average support is 4.90. With the bases empty, he had a .283 xwOBA and .303 wOBA. MLB was .309, .313. Sox as a team were .309, .326, the difference being bad defense and Fenway. So his karma with the bases empty was absolutely normal, just .003 worse than the team as a whole.
With runners on, he had a .298 xwOBA and .371 wOBA. League was .317, .322. Sox were .313, .320. So the bad strand rate and bad BABIP were one problem.
However, this badness was not distributed equally across the season. xwOBA / wOBA with runners on:
.279 / .310, 4/8 to 5/7 .294 / .445, 5/12 to 6/22 .308 / .313, 6/27 to 9/2 .309 / .434, 9/7 to 10/1
The similarities between chunks 1 and 3, and 2 and 4, warrant lumping the two pairs together to test the hypothesis that he did something wrong with runners on in two discrete stretches.
If you look at the two stretches of normal karma starts as one sample and the two stretches of bad karma starts as another (eliminating three starts with <5 PA with runners on) ... the start-to-start variances are very close (.018. .015). But the means (unweighted by PA in each start) are .010 and .150. And the odds of the bad stretches being that much worse at random are 610 to 1.
... so, you mean work like that? They have 100x the data, easily.
He's had excellent runner-on karma so far in the post-season.
Thanks Eric, and yes work like that. I would then use their vast data and the video analytics to go search for causation - was it poor mechanics, was he susceptible to dead arm due to the lack of a 2020 season, was he tipping pitches, etc. Your assumption of randomness assumes independence, things like similar delivery, arm in the same shape, etc. and I think the team should have enough data to poke and see where those assumptions could have failed. They'll never tell us what they find, but I trust that if they can find something that they should sign him. On a related note - if starters only go 5 innings now, are we overvaluing what they are worth? When we think Erod deserves to get paid, are we still thinking that he's going 6 or 7 innings? Really good point on valuing starters and I would bet Chaim is all over that. ERods era was over 6 in the 4th and over 7 in the 5th, food for thought on his actual value. I know it is just era and all but that is not good. Maybe he should be a 4 inning guy and get paid like one. Don't take this too seriously but the numbers are real.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 11:31:42 GMT -5
I'm guessing Kiké will earn some serious money after this contract ends but 250K a year til 2036 is some pretty decent security. Currently trying to talk my employer into giving me this deal. I seem to be getting the Monday morning bemused Zoom stare... All of us need to play the lottery to come close.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 10:45:40 GMT -5
I'm talking about finding guys like Hernandez and Renfroe on the cheap, that produce that way. Only because they may not have enough roster spots to fill with upside projects.
Kiké, Pivetta, and Renfroe are all key contributors where they seemed to have had a specific idea as to how to turn an OK or worse ballplayer into a much better one. Arroyo, ditto, to a lesser extent. Richards seemed to be well on his way to being another success story before the sticky. They fixed Robles, who had been very good and then terrible this season. Franchy was the one guy they clearly failed to extract the hoped-for upside from this year, and there's an argument that Peraza frpm last year should be on that list as well. Perez may have had further upside in their minds that was never realized; that's unclear. I think they were intrigued by Yaksel Rios as a possible high-lev guy but didn't pursue it much.
Andriese was coming off of a great September, and had a great month for us before re-pumpkinizing. We may never know what happened there.
I suspect that the failures are guys who turn out to be relatively uncoachable. It's hard to tell that before a trade or signing.
I don't think that Marwin was a project, just a guy whose versatility they thought they needed, and then had a bad year at the plate. Santana was a guy they took a flyer on because they could.
It's such a substantial body of work with a high enough success rate that I see no argument against not finding more of these guys on a regular basis. You just might not have a lot of needs. But in most years you'll have one or even two bench spots to fill with an upside project. For next year, there's room for a LHH 1B who can play OF or 3B, which is to say, someone better than Shaw. And there's always room for a couple of pitchers.
Sounds like Schwarber to me even if he isn't going to come cheap.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 10:43:39 GMT -5
I bring up Ben Cherington because he's the last GM to do a rebuild and the parallels to Bloom are very similar. Talented team with a bloated payroll, GM makes some good moves that work out perfectly for the most part. Yet that also was his downfall. He tries the same thing the next year and it's bad. He's then forced to spend by ownership, which just creates even more problems. Yet doesn't want to give out mega deals You won't find a Hernandez and Renfroe every year. It's Baseball, players have up and down years. It's not coaching, it's just Baseball. The Ray's are crazy impressive, yet they have never won a championship. The Dodgers were crazy impressive for years, yet they didn't win till they went all in. I'm a big believer in our ownerships model of go all in and then rebuild. Just look at the results. It's like acting like the Yankees when they were the Yankees, yet in spurts so you don't have any long downturns. You clear the books and restock the system to once again go all in. You don't try to avoid the next David Price contract, you set yourself up to make that signing. You act like the Ray's in stretches, then act like the old Yankees. Then do it all over again. I agree with a lot of this but how can you say coaching doesn't matter? Sure it is baseball and guys are up and down but to completely disregard coaching I don't agree with. I think Erics post hits on this, they thought they could fix some guys. It worked with some but not all, obviously. Another example, why do some teams have so much success in developing pitchers while others hardly ever do? Like TBay and the Red Sox.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 10:26:03 GMT -5
Prime example, what did Richards do when he wasn't asked to go too many innings? These guys can all dial it up for a few compared to having a mindset of trying to go 6. Those are the guys you need, failed starters who can dial it up for 3.
McHugh is a good example but he was pretty much limited to 2 innings, which is better than 1. Especially when the 2 innings are pitched at the level he was at this season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 10:19:29 GMT -5
Enrique Hernandez inf-of 2 years/$14M (2021-22) 2 years/$14M (2021-22) signed by Boston as a free agent 1/21 21:$6M, 22:$8M $1.5M of 2021 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2027-32 $1M of 2022 salary is deferred without interest, paid $250,000 each Jan. 15, 2033-36 Chaim I'm guessing Kiké will earn some serious money after this contract ends but 250K a year til 2036 is some pretty decent security.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 9:31:20 GMT -5
If the long reliever is one of the team's best, then Cora will want to use him like a closer/set up man. If he's not one of the team's best, then I don't think Cora will be willing to find much multi-inning work for him unless the team is trailing by several runs. This is old fashioned thinking, sorry but it is. Gone are the days of the long/middle reliever being at the bottom of the staff mopping up. Whitlock and Houck this year were incredibly valuable in 2,3,4 inning roles. With starters league wide averaging less than 5 innings a start and arguably the best starter in the league, Cole, only going 6 it is the new reality. If starters only go 4 2/3 on average that leaves a big hole in getting to the 8th for the setup guy. It is also a great way to groom a young starter, IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 18, 2021 7:27:41 GMT -5
The Red Sox project to find themselves beginning next year with more starting pitching depth then they have had in a long time. It made me think of the bullpen usage in April of this year when Cora was able to use Whitlock and Andriese so effectively to cover for starts not going very deep into games. Having two guys capable of pitching 4 innings after the starter really seemed to make the bullpen work amazing till Andriese started sucking in May and Cora was forced to use Whitlock in more selective high leverage spots as the year went on. How about trying something similar to begin the year with Seabold, Crawford, and whichever of Whitlock or Houke doesn't take a rotation spot? Having 3 pitchers in the bullpen each capable of pitching 3 to 5 innings twice a week seems incredibly valuable. Imagine only having to use one reliever per game for 3/5s of the starts. It would really keep the other 5 bullpen members fresh. I see it mapping out as follows: Starters 1. Sale* 2. Eovaldi 3. FA 4. Houke 5. Pivetta Single inning relivers 1. Barnes 2. Taylor* 3. Braiser 4. D. Hernandez* 5. Sawamura Multiple inning relievers 6. Whitlock 7. Seabold 8. Crawford CB can probably find an upgrade on one of Braiser, Hernandez, Sawamura in FA. Overall, it seems like a viable strategy to take advantage of the starting pitch depth that has built up. I know starting pitching depth can evaporate pretty suddenly (Mata, Ward), but using pitchers as long relief on a regular schedule wouldn't prevent them from covering for an injured starter because they would still be fairly stretched out. This is what I have been talking about for a long time, it is the new reality in building a staff. I would take it one step further and suggest that they look at the 4 and 5 starters as guys that go 4 maybe 5 with quick hooks. In this case Houck and Pivetta who both have not proven to be effective after 4. As the season goes on if someone steps up and is still getting outs after 4 then sure they get more of a leash. So spend the money on ERod or another FA that has a history of going 6+ but fill out the staff with guys who aren't quite there yet like all the guys you have mentioned. IMO the Sox are in a good position to go this route since they are deep at the "4th and 5th" along with a few guys in AAA who should be ready for prime time. More relievers capable of going more than 1 inning if needed is the key along with everything else in this staff building strategy. Another part of this is that Chaim isn't shy about continuing to make moves aimed at finding guys to fit these roles. Basically guys who have 2 effective pitches who have shown they can be productive but not as pure starters. Just look at the league averages for innings pitched by starters, then look at eras for the 5th and 6th innings and it is glaring. One of my favorite sayings is that one plus one equals two, don't deviate as it is unreasonable. edit. Pivetta in 23 5th innings pitched this season gave up 8 HRs and his era was 5.48, 6.94 in the 6th. ERods era in the 4th 6.28 and 7.23 in the 5th. That is a classic 1 + 1 = 2 situation, why go there.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 19:23:40 GMT -5
I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes. When looking at E-rod's year I would say he was quite mediocre. I mean since when are theoretical runs allowed more important than actual runs allowed? He gave up these real runs which made it harder to win games even if the numbers indicate that he shouldn't have. I mean theoretically the Blue Jays were better than the Sox by a good margin yet in reality which is more important one team is fighting to go to the World Series while the other has been golfing since the regular season ended. That said, when looking to forecast his future to make decisions on what could be expected, that's when I would turn to the theoretical stats, rather than the actual stats, that show he should have been better than his actual results. Obviously offering the QO is a no-brainer. But a contract offer should be based on what is expected in the future and it should be based more upon FIP than ERA. So I look at these stats in 2 different ways and for different purposes. And I would anticipate a lot of disagreement on the outlook of these stats. The ultimate analytical debate but which one actually predicts and measures his performance best?
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 19:16:45 GMT -5
Are you f'ing kidding me!!!!! Their were more of those moments in that game than I have ever seen, for both teams. One highly unlikely play after another all game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 17:49:17 GMT -5
Pats need to get back to some blitzing, the rush isn't getting there, too tired.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 16:55:41 GMT -5
This has been a crazy game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 15:54:52 GMT -5
I would say they need it. Is today the day they will actually start running the ball? Offensive line is still the key for this team. Mac can't keep running for his life half the game and he needs the running game to take some pressure off. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict BB gives Stevenson a chance to redeem himself and he is a big factor in the game. I'm looking more at the D, if you can't slow down that offense you won't be able to run if you get behind. They are on fire running and passing. It's a big time test for how good our D actually is. I'd actually come out spread offense with the hurry up to start the game. Every team is going to try to stop the run and blitz Mac Jones like crazy until he proves that doesn't work. So I'd use the pass to set up the running game. I don't know if it's because teams were behind, yet the Cowboys rank very high in yards per game rushing and low in passing. Yet they are allowing 4.2 yards a rush. It's just been crazy lately with teams blitzing like crazy, the RBs have no chance half the time. I want to see Steveson more involved in the passing game, setting him up to run out of the spread offense. If he can't do that, given Taylor is likely in the dog house, we need another RB. Stevenson involved in the passing game!! They are looking good.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 15:39:04 GMT -5
2 things on paying Raffy his defense and his age. He will be getting the big deal at a younger age than most so 10 years is not as scary. But will he end up being a DH or a liability in the field.
In my perfect world both he and Xander sign for 25m av.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 14:36:55 GMT -5
I'd do 10/300 for Devers. Not to rehash the Mookie stuff but if he was willing to stay here for that Lindor contract we'd all be pumped. Not me. Mookie is ALREADY falling apart. I can’t imagine what that deal will look like in another 10 years. And I love Mookie, too. He’s probably my favorite player they’ve developed since Nomar. The Sox can just do a lot more with that $30m every year, IMO. Although I agree with you on the idea of paying an imperfect player 30m a year I think we have to get used to the idea that it will become the new normal as time goes on. With the new CBA I expect higher caps and inflation is what it is. Heck with all the young superstars someone will be breaking 40 soon enough. It may not be the best way to manage a winning team but it is challenging to win a WS with out star power. The Dodgers got over that hump with Mookie, the great farm system wasn't enough. Just like Tampa Bay.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 14:21:34 GMT -5
I’m not disputing the QO. I never did. You should definitely offer that to him. My argument is that his 2021 performance was worth $30M when he was mediocre, at best, this season. But...he just wasn't mediocre... League average stats for starters: 4.30 FIP 4.22 xFIP 4.29 SIERA He was significantly above average! His ERA is just deceiving. I agree with him being a lot better than mediocre and that his FIP is very good. But he has never had a good whip and this year at 1.389 it is simply bad. Is there something to be said about a pitcher whose bad luck with babip is an annual thing? This year it is really bad but his career babip is .312. This is why he is a tough one to figure when thinking about a fair salary. One thing I think for sure is that he isn't as easily replaced as people might think. He was basically a solid #2 on a team that is looking like they will be in the WS. Has he been dominant, no. Has he been solid, yes.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 12:39:12 GMT -5
I would say they need it. Is today the day they will actually start running the ball? Offensive line is still the key for this team. Mac can't keep running for his life half the game and he needs the running game to take some pressure off. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict BB gives Stevenson a chance to redeem himself and he is a big factor in the game. I'm looking more at the D, if you can't slow down that offense you won't be able to run if you get behind. They are on fire running and passing. It's a big time test for how good our D actually is. I'd actually come out spread offense with the hurry up to start the game. Every team is going to try to stop the run and blitz Mac Jones like crazy until he proves that doesn't work. So I'd use the pass to set up the running game. I don't know if it's because teams were behind, yet the Cowboys rank very high in yards per game rushing and low in passing. Yet they are allowing 4.2 yards a rush. It's just been crazy lately with teams blitzing like crazy, the RBs have no chance half the time. I want to see Steveson more involved in the passing game, setting him up to run out of the spread offense. If he can't do that, given Taylor is likely in the dog house, we need another RB. The D looked bad last week but their were some funky long plays that killed them. They looked really good against Brady and are ranked #5 right, so I think the D will slow the Boys down. I like both Taylor and Stevenson but man the opponents D seems like they have been running downhill against the Pats all season. They need to scare someone deep also.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 12:04:43 GMT -5
In the moment I was angry about the Garcia/Oddorizi situation and thought the Stros were cheating also. But think about them now without both McCullers and Garcia, they are screwed.
I think the Sox bats are going to continue to rake. Sox are in great position to win and move on.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 11:52:27 GMT -5
Maybe the idea with Correa is they sign him, keep both for a year and let Xander walk. As tough as that would be to see happen given all Xander has done for this franchise it could make baseball sense if Correa projects to stick at short longer. He is also younger. Correa is the better defender and has a great bat but he can't stay on the field. If you are going to break the bank for a player I would put a lot of weight on LT health. None of his injuries really lead me to think they will crop up again but it is a question.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 11:32:22 GMT -5
I am on board with this team being very good this season. They got off to a good start last night and I will go on record that they will have over a 100 point season.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 11:25:41 GMT -5
Huge game today, a win and you're 3-3 and looking good. I would say they need it. Is today the day they will actually start running the ball? Offensive line is still the key for this team. Mac can't keep running for his life half the game and he needs the running game to take some pressure off. I'm going to go out on a limb and predict BB gives Stevenson a chance to redeem himself and he is a big factor in the game.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 17, 2021 11:11:57 GMT -5
Some people on this board are going to be shocked at how much ERod gets. (I am foolishly assuming that contracts will be signed as usual) I was thinking the same thing!! I think he is going to be a horse for the Sox or someone else for the next 5 years. Of course I could be wrong and he nevers takes that next step but I hope the Sox guess right. His value is hard to pinpoint but it is more than many think it is and he still has room to grow, IMO.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 16, 2021 19:36:19 GMT -5
The Sox did what they needed to do and now we have home field advantage. Execute and ball out, the Sox should win.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 16, 2021 19:04:10 GMT -5
I like the position our Red Sox are in, we are a pretty good team. Hahahaha!! I knew it all along.
Seriously, these guys have been good for a long time and have some pride in what they do. How many of them were part of 2018? Quite a few.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 16, 2021 18:28:27 GMT -5
What do we expect now? That everyone in the lineup goes 2 for 3? This is baseball and we are doing great!!
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