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Sox talking long-term extension with Pedroia
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 19, 2013 20:58:29 GMT -5
I even think the 5/90 is too much,but I coud live with it. 7/120 is god awful.
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wcp3
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Posts: 3,824
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Post by wcp3 on Jul 19, 2013 21:19:08 GMT -5
Love the player. Hate, hate, hate, HATE this (theoretical) extension. HATE IT. I'm a huge Pedroia fan, and five years isn't the worst thing in the world ... but that's a dreadful contract. No reason to give that much, either. Like I said, once Cano signs his contract, im pretty sure that will be the benchmark for Pedroia.. So its either do it now, or pay more later. And dont you think about letting him walk, or else sox fans will riot Look, I'm of the opinion that there are certain players that are worth overpaying for, and Pedroia falls into that category. But $20 million per year? That's dreadful. He's a $15 million/year player, so paying him that much extra for five years will add up. Plus, it's not the type of precedent you want to say for negotiations, especially after the trainwreck (i.e. Beckett and Crawford) that the Sox are still working their way out of. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 19, 2013 21:27:46 GMT -5
Brandon Phillips- 6 Years/72.5 million Dan Uggla- 5 years/62 million Ian Kinsler: 5 years/75 million all recent contract extensions Yeah and, assuming the Red Sox didn't already have Pedroia, would you be looking to trade for any of those contracts? None of those are bad contracts at the moment - although I would be concerned how they look 2-3 years from now. The worst contract on there to me is Uggla's and he was a 3.4 WAR player last year. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 19, 2013 21:33:04 GMT -5
I love Pedroia (not in a gay way - not that there's anything wrong with that), but the MAX i would consider is picking up his option year and adding 3 years at 19 mil.
If he wants a penny more then let him walk and see how Cecchini handles 2nd base. Or pickup a stopgap til/if Mookie is ready.
I felt the same way about Nomar and we all know how that ended up.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 19, 2013 21:53:39 GMT -5
If it's a five year extension that replaces next year and the option year I'll be okay with it (not in love with the idea, but I'd understand it), but if it's five more years tacked onto this deal that's a terrible idea, at that point why wouldn't you just wait until he's closer to free agency and see if he still worth the contract?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 19, 2013 21:58:29 GMT -5
My heart loves the thought of Pedroia signing up long-term, being the captain, and retiring with the Red Sox.
My brain is not as crazy about the idea, though.
I'm concerned, given how hard he plays, that one day he'll get an injury and he won't be able to hit his way out of it. .320 might become .270 without any power whatsoever and his range will not improve with age, either.
If anybody could possibly buck that trend it is Pedroia, but I think the odds are against that.
Twenty million per year is an awful lot to give a guy with so-so power. His injury that he has now has prevented him from displaying the power that gives him 15 - 20 homers per year.
It could be that in 2016 or 2017 we're dying for Mookie Betts to take over the 2b position from Pedroia. The other thing that concerns me is that he is only a 2b. It's not like a 3b or a ss or corner OF who can move to 1st or DH because he still has power. Without that power Pedroia really has nowhere else to go on the diamond if his hitting slips a bit.
So despite that, I'll probably be watching the press conference with a goofy grin when they officially announce him captain and Red Sox for life (when you join Williams, Yaz, and Rice and Tek as Red Sox for life that is pretty special.)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jul 19, 2013 22:13:25 GMT -5
Can we get a no-diving-into-the-base-except-on-a-pickoff clause?
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 19, 2013 22:13:45 GMT -5
If it's a five year extension that replaces next year and the option year I'll be okay with it (not in love with the idea, but I'd understand it), but if it's five more years tacked onto this deal that's a terrible idea, at that point why wouldn't you just wait until he's closer to free agency and see if he still worth the contract? Yeah, exactly. Waiting 2y down the line to offer him 5/100m is the safer route. Offering him 5/100m extension is "Steinbrenner" economics and makes no sense. Rewarding players for past play, rather than for what they will do in the future and the team will not be getting value out of that deal come 2021-22, or I don't see it the all out way Pedroia plays. Also, Even tearing up his current 2/22 left (incl option year) and offering up 5/100m goes too far in offering fair equity to me, that would call for a slightly less AAV, or contract term since they hold 2014 guarantee at 2014. I can see the team offering to void the team option more freely. Perhaps 15-17m AAV, spread over 5y, if they tear up the 2015 option, but I can't see them committing 20m annually to him until the year 2022 when they went all out and were extremely lucky to shed 3 other serious anchor contracts to the LAD. Yes, Pedey is the biggest icon in town since Evans and Yaz, but 20m annually for the type of player he is could be a serious drag before his mid 30's with his style and swing. |
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Post by ikonos on Jul 19, 2013 22:15:34 GMT -5
If they do it now and go over 100m then it probably will replace the next two years. I think some where in the lines of 6-7 at 16-18m per year? If Cano is going to get north of 150-200m then it is imperative pedroia gets north of 100m whether it is now or in 2 yrs.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2013 22:27:17 GMT -5
If it's a five year extension that replaces next year and the option year I'll be okay with it (not in love with the idea, but I'd understand it), but if it's five more years tacked onto this deal that's a terrible idea, at that point why wouldn't you just wait until he's closer to free agency and see if he still worth the contract? Yeah, exactly. Waiting 2y down the line to offer him 5/100m is the safer route. Offering him 5/100m extension is "Steinbrenner" economics and makes no sense. Rewarding players for past play, rather than for what they will do in the future and the team will not be getting value out of that deal come 2021-22, or I don't see it the all out way Pedroia plays. Also, Even tearing up his current 2/22 left (incl option year) and offering up 5/100m goes too far in offering fair equity to me, that would call for a slightly less AAV, or contract term since they hold 2014 guarantee at 2014. I can see the team offering to void the team option more freely. Perhaps 15-17m AAV, spread over 5y, if they tear up the 2015 option, but I can't see them committing 20m annually to him until the year 2022 when they went all out and were extremely lucky to shed 3 other serious anchor contracts to the LAD. Yes, Pedey is the biggest icon in town since Evans and Yaz, but 20m annually for the type of player he is could be a serious drag before his mid 30's with his style and swing. Jonah Keri ?@jonahkeri 56m If Cano gets $250M, Pedroia's price could go way up. RT @arunkgupta @jonahkeri don't 2B age worse? option for 2015 too. why extend now? try offering him 5/100m if cano gets that type of deal.... |
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 19, 2013 22:29:43 GMT -5
This is a non-story report. You guys are falling for it. Gordon Edes ?@gordonedes 24m Major league source says Sox made offer of contract extension to Pedroia over break. "Ball is in their court.'' Yahoo says 100m plus |
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 19, 2013 22:33:41 GMT -5
"try offering him 5/100m if cano gets that type of deal...."
It's then time to thank him for his 8 great years and bid adieu. Boston has several 2b in the system, time to work on a serviceable replacement and better ways to spend 5/100m+ than on 31YO 2b.
Remember when Epstein was all hot to trot about getting Hanley back? Case in point about middle IF and massive money.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 19, 2013 23:04:29 GMT -5
Jonah Keri ?@jonahkeri 56m If Cano gets $250M, Pedroia's price could go way up. RT @arunkgupta @jonahkeri don't 2B age worse? option for 2015 too. why extend now? try offering him 5/100m if cano gets that type of deal.... It really doesn't matter what Cano gets. It matters what some other team is willing to pay Pedroia and his lifetime .284/.354/.412 line away from Fenway. |
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Post by mainesox on Jul 19, 2013 23:37:31 GMT -5
Jonah Keri ?@jonahkeri 56m If Cano gets $250M, Pedroia's price could go way up. RT @arunkgupta @jonahkeri don't 2B age worse? option for 2015 too. why extend now? try offering him 5/100m if cano gets that type of deal.... Pedroia will be 32 when (if) he hits free agency while Cano is only 30, plus Cano's value is almost solely in his offense (specifically power), while a good chunk of Pedroia's is in his defense, and offense (again, specifically power) is what really gets a player paid big money, and Cano has also been the model of health while Pedroia has not, so I don't know how much of a basis Cano's potential deal will be for a Pedroia extension if they wait. And anyway, I'd rather take a chance on him costing more than take a chance on giving him $20M per year and having him fall apart before the extension even starts. |
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 19, 2013 23:40:16 GMT -5
The Red Sox have no significant contracts on the books when Pedroia is scheduled to hit free agency. The Red Sox also have a deep farm system and should have a good amount of cheap, controllable talent. Why guarantee anything at this point? Even factoring in inflation and changing economics I can't imagine the Red Sox would be saving more than $2-5m annually even if Pedroia defies Father Time and continues this level of production into his late 30s. I hope this reported offer is overstated, this seems like a goodwill gesture instead of a real baseball decision. It would be disappointing to see the team fall back into this type of activity after this past offseason.
This is the token "I love Pedroia as a player" part. I really do. I wouldn't even bet against him to actually earn the deal and continue to defy logic and expectations. The problem is this deal has minimal upside and assumes a ton of risk...and they'd be assuming that risk ~2.5 years before they'd have to make a decision. That's just not a good way to run a franchise, even giving him special consideration for everything he represents. The Yankees are letting Cano hit the market, they let Rivera hit the market, and they let Jeter hit the market...the Red Sox can allow Pedroia to hit the market, evaluate their options at that point, and if they decide to extend themselves they'll be able to afford him.
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Post by bjb406 on Jul 19, 2013 23:54:37 GMT -5
I'm curious where the dollar figure in the article came from, because I would be surprised if it were for that much. I like the timing of this idea, but I would expect they could get it done for less than that.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 19, 2013 23:58:27 GMT -5
Its easy to get caught up in the 100M price tag, which is significant, but the reality is the way to truly judge this deal will be in the detail of how it's structured. If the team increases his 2014 10 mil and 2015 11 mil option years with a more significant $ amount in the 16 to 17 mil range in exchange for a few team friendly years at the end of the contract it isn't all that bad an idea.
You also have to remember with the trend of teams signing their young talent to significant long term high dollar deals vs spending it on free agency its not all that unlikely that in 3 years the qualifying offer itself could be in the 16 to 17 mil dollar range and by the end of the contract closer to 18 mil per range. So in reality giving Pedroia close to 20 mil at its peak isn't relatively expensive if its within range of the qualifying offer.
I still feel fairly strong about the next 3 years of production so the question becomes how many years past that should the team be willing to risk "being stuck" with an overpriced contract. If the new deal is for 100 mil or so for the years of 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 with a team option and buyout for 2019 its not all bad. Something like 15 mil, 16 mil, 18 mil, 18 mil, 17 mil, 16 mil with a 5 mil buyout. That's 100 mil for 6 years or 89 mil for 5 years with the buy out. Have to figure its close to what he would get with a qualifying offer at that time anyway and it would be tough to at least not offer him one. Not many players are willing to take less in the end years as contracts continue to escalate but I think if the team gives a little more up front he would be willing.
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Post by taftreign on Jul 20, 2013 0:10:18 GMT -5
Here's what the payroll is looking like right now. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml There really isn't much tied up long term. Pedroia is one player I'd be willing to risk a few dollars on for his leadership and grittiness alone. Heck we gave Victorino 13 mil per year this year and Pedroia is a better player. Napoli was going to get 13 mil per year before the hip concerns. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 20, 2013 0:41:09 GMT -5
Victorino's value is coming from defense in RF. Pedroia's defense is only going to get worse. Not a good comparison. But $20M 6 years from now could be like $15M this year, who knows.
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Post by bsout2 on Jul 20, 2013 0:57:08 GMT -5
Baseball is like any other business and though it may not make any sense, you take care of your own. The Yankees have gone over board with the notion in regards to Jeter's contract. But Pedroia is a good guy to pay alot of money too, you want to make sure he is a Red Sox for life and is taken care of. The gamble is paying upfront for good PR and recruiting down the road.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2013 6:12:54 GMT -5
Hard to say how he'll age with his performance being almost all bat speed and range on defense. Oh, come on. |
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 20, 2013 6:24:05 GMT -5
It really doesn't matter what Cano gets. It matters what some other team is willing to pay Pedroia and his lifetime .284/.354/.412 line away from Fenway. Whatever it is, it's more than what we'll end up extending him for. I'm guessing there's enough teams at this point smart enough to not just take home/away splits at face value. I think you guys are way, way off on this one. Studs like Pedroia don't make it to free agency anymore, and when they do, they end up getting RIDICULOUS contracts like Prince Fielder, Jayson Werth, etc. The only sustainable model is to draft them and then hold on to them. Pedroia is a top 10 player in baseball, you know he's willing to take probably an even bigger discount than most guys, it's not like you're extending him until he's 39....I just don't get the hand-wringing on this one. Unless you are literally predicting that he's going to spend 40% of this time period on the DL, this is a no-brainer. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jul 20, 2013 7:52:45 GMT -5
It really doesn't matter what Cano gets. It matters what some other team is willing to pay Pedroia and his lifetime .284/.354/.412 line away from Fenway. Sure, but the first has a direct effect on the second. If the Sox are planning on paying Pedroia $20 million for his age 36 or 37 season, that's a little nutso. But, I'd be completely willing to cut up his current contract and give him $100 million starting next year. Money well spent with some room in the payroll to do it. That'd make the extension functionally 3/78 but spreading out the AAV into the previous two years and allowing Pedroia to point to a "$100 million contract." |
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 20, 2013 7:55:30 GMT -5
It really doesn't matter what Cano gets. It matters what some other team is willing to pay Pedroia and his lifetime .284/.354/.412 line away from Fenway. Whatever it is, it's more than what we'll end up extending him for. I'm guessing there's enough teams at this point smart enough to not just take home/away splits at face value. I think you guys are way, way off on this one. Studs like Pedroia don't make it to free agency anymore, and when they do, they end up getting RIDICULOUS contracts like Prince Fielder, Jayson Werth, etc. The only sustainable model is to draft them and then hold on to them. Pedroia is a top 10 player in baseball, you know he's willing to take probably an even bigger discount than most guys, it's not like you're extending him until he's 39....I just don't get the hand-wringing on this one. Unless you are literally predicting that he's going to spend 40% of this time period on the DL, this is a no-brainer. This is where we differ. And even if he were right now that doesn't mean he will be in two years. The argument is as much about extending him at 29 two years before necessary when he'd be 31. Guy gets banged up quite a bit and his production suffers as a result. He's my favorite player but you got to be smart. |
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 20, 2013 7:55:36 GMT -5
We all want to see Pedroia end his career as a Redsox. Absolutely love the guy and right now he is worth $20 per year but there is something about the phrase "guaranteed long term contract" which removes the incentive for excellence even in the very best of players, and Pedroia needs that edge. He works extremely hard and should be rewarded but not with that kind of money.
If we were signing him at 24 to that sort of contract fine. But not at age 31.
His intangibles are off the charts and we do appreciate him. Every one of us, but he's still a 2nd basenan with under 20 HR pop who does have his numbers enhanced some by playing in Fenway. Even comparing him to Cano is unfair because we do know Cano is probably a PED user right? I mean very likely and I don't care what people will come up with attempting to protect the guy. Sure, give him the benefit of the doubt to a degree but we do know the likelihood is pretty significant no matter how you look at it. Cano could well be Arod round 2.
Pedroia's contract is about Pedroia, his value to the team now and his projected value going forward. And his real value might be more than Cano's but that doesn't mean we should be willing to pay him the money Cano might get from the Yanks. It's not like they haven't made stupid decisions before.
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