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Post by texs31 on Aug 1, 2013 9:59:34 GMT -5
The only chance they will get a good prospect next year (ie this offseason) is if has a very good/great run at the end of this year. And if that happens, it will be hard for Boston to trade him bc a) he's the only top of the rotation candidate you really have and b) what blue-chip said.
It's really not a good idea to trade a guy at a low value point unless the only thing you desire is to be rid of the salary (and when you are in that boat, you typically are choosing good prospects vs said salary relief).
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 1, 2013 10:18:47 GMT -5
That seems unlikely - surely he'd be getting a lot more plate appearances. He probably should be -
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 1, 2013 10:20:29 GMT -5
Westmoreland could have been in play by now. Imagine having his 5 tool set in our lineup.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Aug 1, 2013 10:25:58 GMT -5
That seems unlikely - surely he'd be getting a lot more plate appearances. Unlikely? Is this the kind of thing we do based on probability? Carp's 2013, lifetime, and minor league performance vs. lhp is pretty good.
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zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
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Post by zoot on Aug 1, 2013 10:30:11 GMT -5
Kendrys morales @ 1st?
30 yrs old, switch hitter, projected for 24 hrs. in 2013. Splits seem to favor hitting L but scatter patterns show considerable power towards left field. Big year in 2009.
Don't know about his defensive capabilities. How do you think he'd fit in Fenway?
Edit: Posted before I saw Matt's suggestion above. Still, I don't like Napoli at all; too many times he's killed an inning by not even putting the ball in play and they need something from the R side.
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Post by brendan98 on Aug 1, 2013 10:59:44 GMT -5
Dream scenario, the Sox re-sign Ellsbury and spend to bring back Napoli and improve at catcher:
1) Ellsbury CF 2) Victorino RF 3) Pedroia 2B 4) Ortiz DH 5) Napoli 1B 6) McCann C 7) Gomes/Carp LF 8) Xander SS 9) Middlebrooks 3B
McCann is the big addition, he fits what the Red Sox try to do offensively, he will also cost a lot, so the Sox would likely have to shed some payroll in order to afford to afford he, Ellsbury and Napoli, this could be done by trading one of the a surplus of starting pitchers that are making big $$ (my order of preference would be Dempster/Peavy/Lackey/Lester). Nava would be in the mix in the OF and at 1B, Holt would be the utility infielder. Ross would backup McCann.
More than likely, if Ellsbury can be resigned, the Sox will go cheaper at other positions:
1) Ellsbury CF 2) Victorino RF 3) Pedroia 2B 4) Ortiz DH 5) Carp/Nava 1B 6) Gomes/Nava LF 7) Xander SS 8) Middlebrooks 3B 9) Salty/Ross/Lavarnway C (Depending on how big a deal Salty commands)
If the Sox decide not to overspend on Ellsbury:
1) Victorino RF 2) Pedroia 2B 3) Ortiz DH 4) Napoli 1B 5) McCann C 6) Gomes/Carp LF 7) Xander SS 8) Middlebrooks 3B 9) Bradley CF
With $34 M coming off the books (Ellsbury, Drew, Hanrahan, Bailey, Salty) the Sox can spend to bring in McCann, and bring back Napoli. I think it is too much to bat JBJ leadoff, but he could eventually grow into the role as the season progresses, just as Xander and/or WMB could move up in the order as they develop.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 1, 2013 12:55:05 GMT -5
Kendrys morales @ 1st? 30 yrs old, switch hitter, projected for 24 hrs. in 2013. Splits seem to favor hitting L but scatter patterns show considerable power towards left field. Big year in 2009. Don't know about his defensive capabilities. How do you think he'd fit in Fenway? He's a pretty consistent hitter, and really someone you could have confidence in from the 5 or 6 spot in a good order. However, he's primarily served as a DH since returning from that gruesome ankle injury, and while he'll be a few years removed from it next season, I don't know how practical it is to suddenly count on him for 140+ games there. It is notable that his defense at first has always been surprisingly acceptable when he's played there (although not spectacular or anything, and I really doubt he has much range these days), but with Ortiz clogging the DH spot and unlikely to play much 1B, it'd be a little risky to throw him in there. But, hey, after weighing the risks, I'd personally take him over Napoli.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Aug 1, 2013 14:07:12 GMT -5
That seems unlikely - surely he'd be getting a lot more plate appearances. He probably should be - Actually, it appears that Carp actually hits LHPs a little better than RHPs, at least in terms of BA. His OPS are virtually the same. The stats are a little screwy on Baseball Reference because they don't have complete in-game stats of hitting against LHPs and RHPs. If I read them correctly, he may hit LH RPs better than LH SPs. In any case, there is no statistical argument against him being a fulltime player.
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Post by dewey1972 on Aug 1, 2013 14:34:04 GMT -5
Actually, it appears that Carp actually hits LHPs a little better than RHPs, at least in terms of BA. His OPS are virtually the same. The stats are a little screwy on Baseball Reference because they don't have complete in-game stats of hitting against LHPs and RHPs. If I read them correctly, he may hit LH RPs better than LH SPs. In any case, there is no statistical argument against him being a fulltime player. Can someone give me a link to minor league splits? It looks like you'd have to go year-by-year and calculate the most important stats yourself, and that seems like more time than it's worth. But as for his major league numbers, there are a number of statistical arguments I see for him not hitting lefties nearly as well as righties. First is the sample. I don't have my copy of The Book around so maybe someone else can check exactly how much, but with 161 plate appearances against lefties smarter people than me would say you have to regress his statistics to the mean quite heavily to get an accurate picture of his true talent. Even without doing that, though, you can see that he's a much better hitter against righties. While his wRC+, which adjusts his overall offense for the run environment, is 123 against both lefties and righties, he walks much less (5% versus 9.7%), strikes out a bit more (26.7% versus 24.8%), pops out at twice the rate (16.2% versus 8%) and shows less power (13.5% HR/FB rate compared to 15.3%) against lefties. The only reason his results have been as good as they have been is due to a .385 BABIP against lefties (against a .322 BABIP versus righties), which isn't even due to a better batted ball profile, as he has hit more line drives (23.4% to 20.2%) against righties, though he does have a higher ground ball rate against lefties. www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=7480&position=1B/OF&season=0It seems to me that all of the evidence points to him being a markedly better hitter against righties, as we'd expect.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 1, 2013 14:47:51 GMT -5
A few things that I've noticed from reading this thread.
1) Napoli does not have a terrible contract. It's one year and while its an overpay its not like he's done any favors for himself on the open market. He's an 8 million dollar a year player at best. I'd throw 2/14 at him and see what happens.
2) Hosmer isn't going anywhere. We like Hosmer but KC likes him too. If you guys think Ortiz is bad at 1B then you guys would love the Billy Butler show. I do agree that this team could use a 1B of the future as even the most delusional homer cannot consider Travis Shaw the future. Middlebrooks clearly isn't the future at 1B either. Ceccini is projected to be in RF. You need to look at guys who need a change of scenery that are somewhat young. These options include Logan Morrison, Matt Adams, Mitch Moreland and Justin Smoak. Now note that I put Adams here because he is blocked in STL by Allen Craig.
3) Who's in CF? People have been talking about JBJ in CF like its his birthright for 2014. There is a very real possibility that the Sox do sign Ellsbury (not the correct move IMO) then what happens? If they do let Ellsbury leave town then I think that JBJ probably starts the season in RF, Victorino shifts to CF. Brentz gets a shot to be in a platoon provided he doesn't shoot himself again in the offseason.
4) The Lineup should be as follows
CF - Victorino RF- Bradley 2B- Laser Show DH- Ortiz 1B - Carp/offseason pickup/Napoli? SS- Boegarts 3B- WMB C- Acquisition/Salty LF- Nava/Acquistion/Brentz?
Now the lineup looks lean and could be drastically altered if the Sox resign Ellsbury and make a godfather offer for Stanton (I don't know how they would do it with Boegarts but...) but this is probably the most realistic
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Post by dewey1972 on Aug 1, 2013 14:59:26 GMT -5
I like how he's rebuilding their farm system. They have a bunch of really good prospects. Yeah but Semperfisox if we were in Chicago don't you think we would be getting impatient? He is year 2 in his job and this offseason another top 5 pick. That gets old. This isn't Tampa he does have some money there. If I was a Cubs fan I'd be very happy with the job he and Hoyer are doing. They've used their money wisely, I think. They signed Edwin Jackson to a solid contract, who can be a solid pitcher for years. They signed Baker and Feldman, and were able to flip Feldman for prospects. They've gotten good solid players (Villanueva, DeJesus) but haven't blocked their young players. Their farm system is in great shape, and they've got the beginnings of a solid core. I have no doubt that when it makes sense, they will use their financial strength to add the pieces they need. The franchise was in shambles. The fact that they could be even decent in year three is, in my eyes, a victory. Besides, what would you have had them do with their money that they haven't? The only negative is out of their control: the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are all in very good shape. But as good shape as they're in, they don't have anywhere near the resources the Cubs have, which will make it easier for the Cubs in the long run.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 1, 2013 15:06:22 GMT -5
Brentz gets a shot to be in a platoon provided he doesn't shoot himself again in the offseason. Brentz is not exactly tearing up AAA. He needs work; I would guess he'll be depth option next year but that's it. At this point in their careers, JBJ is likely a stronger fielder than Victorino and thus should man CF. If by chance the stars aligned and Drew returned for another season, that is arguably the strongest 3B-SS combination we could have, with Bogaerts at 3B.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 1, 2013 15:10:29 GMT -5
why would you put Victorino in cf and Bradley in right when Victorino is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and Bradley doesn't have the arm for right, but projects as a very good center fielder? Even if you think Victorino is a little better in center the fact that he's WAY better in right should out weight that right? Plus, if you buy that right field is a little less demanding physically then that's another reason to put Bradley there.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2013 15:12:51 GMT -5
why would you put Victorino in cf and Bradley in right when Victorino is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and Bradley doesn't have the arm for right, but projects as a very good center fielder? Even if you think Victorino is a little better in center the fact that he's WAY better in right should out weight that right? Plus, if you buy that right field is a little less demanding physically then that's another reason to put Bradley there. maybe to keep away from those foul territory walls.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 1, 2013 15:19:30 GMT -5
why would you put Victorino in cf and Bradley in right when Victorino is one of the best defensive right fielders in the game and Bradley doesn't have the arm for right, but projects as a very good center fielder? Even if you think Victorino is a little better in center the fact that he's WAY better in right should out weight that right? Plus, if you buy that right field is a little less demanding physically then that's another reason to put Bradley there. I mean either guy is fine. I felt that RF would take advantage of Bradley's strengths a little bit more. I feel Fenway is one of those parks where you have to be just as if not more athletic than in CF. RF in Fenway is a tough place to play. One thing I agree on is that his arm isn't the strongest in the world.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 1, 2013 15:32:40 GMT -5
Jackie Bradley Jr. has easily a plus arm - borderline plus plus. His arm is plenty strong enough for right.
With that said, it doesn't make sense to do that. Victorino in Right - Bradley in Center is the best defensive configuration.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 1, 2013 15:33:09 GMT -5
How did we have Agon in RF about a year ago? lol
At least he had an arm.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Aug 1, 2013 15:57:34 GMT -5
Trade JBJ, Webster, Swihart, Brentz for Stanton, re-sign Ells for 5/90, sign McCann for 3/36.
1. Ellsbury, CF (L) 2. Pedroia, 2B (R) 3. Ortiz, DH (L) 4. Stanton, RF (R) 5. McCann, C (L) 6. Victorino, LF (S) 7. Middlebrooks, 3B (R) 8. Carp, 1B (L) 9. Bogaerts, SS (R)
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Post by izzy on Aug 1, 2013 17:11:24 GMT -5
Trade JBJ, Webster, Swihart, Brentz for Stanton Unfortunately, any trade for Stanton starts with Xander. JBJ is really good and Webster has a lot of potential, but it's simply not enough to get Stanton even with Loria in charge.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Aug 1, 2013 17:38:09 GMT -5
Trade JBJ, Webster, Swihart, Brentz for Stanton Unfortunately, any trade for Stanton starts with Xander. JBJ is really good and Webster has a lot of potential, but it's simply not enough to get Stanton even with Loria in charge. You are probably right, but I would never put anything past that Marlins management haha.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 1, 2013 17:38:50 GMT -5
Yeah but Semperfisox if we were in Chicago don't you think we would be getting impatient? He is year 2 in his job and this offseason another top 5 pick. That gets old. This isn't Tampa he does have some money there. If I was a Cubs fan I'd be very happy with the job he and Hoyer are doing. They've used their money wisely, I think. They signed Edwin Jackson to a solid contract, who can be a solid pitcher for years. They signed Baker and Feldman, and were able to flip Feldman for prospects. They've gotten good solid players (Villanueva, DeJesus) but haven't blocked their young players. Their farm system is in great shape, and they've got the beginnings of a solid core. I have no doubt that when it makes sense, they will use their financial strength to add the pieces they need. The franchise was in shambles. The fact that they could be even decent in year three is, in my eyes, a victory. Besides, what would you have had them do with their money that they haven't? The only negative is out of their control: the Cardinals, Pirates, and Reds are all in very good shape. But as good shape as they're in, they don't have anywhere near the resources the Cubs have, which will make it easier for the Cubs in the long run. Easy just like the Red Sox add some veterans that are good around the kids just like the Sox just did this year. Remember this was a "bridge year"? We jumped that bridge. Benny just bypassed a year or two buy doing good work . He got laughed at some of his stuff he did. Even I question some moves but I like the short term deals and more money that was good strategy.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 1, 2013 17:42:39 GMT -5
so we do absolutely nothing in the offseason to improve? Cant see us staying pat regardless of how this season ends. You can't do something just for the sake of doing something. Starting pitching is set for 2014, between the current starters, minor league guys, and lack of any FA starters worth throwing money at. As for hitters, who do they go after? Here is the FA I know of: McCann, Ellsbury, Cano, Pence, Choo. The only player worth throwing money at is McCann, but someone (Texas?) will over pay for him. Bsout2, Thanks for seeing that. I believe Ben made his big move already. He might tweak things. But I want to continue with the kids as much as possible. I think there is a good balance of veterans now. Sooner or later we have to see what we have here. Its obvious Ben wants to keep a core of prospects to see what we have with them. So I say leave it. I am happy with that.
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Post by Don Caballero on Aug 1, 2013 18:42:44 GMT -5
Easy just like the Red Sox add some veterans that are good around the kids just like the Sox just did this year. Remember this was a "bridge year"? We jumped that bridge. Benny just bypassed a year or two buy doing good work . He got laughed at some of his stuff he did. Even I question some moves but I like the short term deals and more money that was good strategy. There's no question in my mind that Ben has been a MUCH better GM than Theo was in his his last couple of years here. He really started to mail it in, it was inexcusable (but people still tried to defend him by blaming Lucchino). I hope he does well in Chicago, it was a solid if unspetacular start of work by him there.
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Post by orcoaster on Aug 1, 2013 18:51:26 GMT -5
I think you're on the right track, but those are bargain prices. Stanton will take a truckload. If it can be done without X or JBJ, I'd do it. I don't think that's enough for Ellsbury, but we don't need to pay it if we have JBJ. McCann would be a prize that will likely cost 5/80 and worth every penny. Napoli is a whiff machine, but he's also been productive. I wouldn't mind bringing him back. CF - JBJ 2b - Pedroia DH - Ortiz LF - Stanton C - McCann 1b - Napoli SS - Bogaerts 3b - Middlebrooks RF - Victorino
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Aug 1, 2013 19:11:12 GMT -5
I think you're on the right track, but those are bargain prices. Stanton will take a truckload. If it can be done without X or JBJ, I'd do it. I don't think that's enough for Ellsbury, but we don't need to pay it if we have JBJ. McCann would be a prize that will likely cost 5/80 and worth every penny. Napoli is a whiff machine, but he's also been productive. I wouldn't mind bringing him back. CF - JBJ 2b - Pedroia DH - Ortiz LF - Stanton C - McCann 1b - Napoli SS - Bogaerts 3b - Middlebrooks RF - Victorino Yes, I would rather go with JBJ, but in my scenario he was part of the trade for Stanton. Ells has no power so I don't think 18 mill a year is far off. I would be shocked if someone gave him 20. As for McCann, he is an aging catcher with injury issues. I see them getting him on a deal just like they did with Victorino last offseason.
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