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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 2, 2013 23:08:41 GMT -5
This is just another version of "stop me before I kill again", no? With all that money floating around, it's for certain that a serious bidding war for high-quality pitching talent, which Tanaka appears to be, would ensue. Is your front office high, drugged on all that loose cash? No problem. Cap the dough, sap the market. Add: Welcome to the Cubs Tanaka! Very quick thinking, there. Farthest from first, with the fattest purse.
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Post by p23w on Dec 3, 2013 0:24:58 GMT -5
This is MLB's side of the story. The Japanese could counter with, OK, the cap is $80M. Or they could negotiate the cap down and give the player the choice of whom to negotiate/sign with. In any event it would be well worth it for MLB to leave some room to save face in the negotiations. If the roles were reversed.... not so much. Should prove interesting, as will the duration of the new agreement.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 3, 2013 3:51:17 GMT -5
Maybe they do a posting fee cap but let the player negotiate a contract among the teams bidding the maximum amount. That would make a ton of sense. And legally I would think be more robust for the league as well. Someone will challenge this system in court someday if they don't do something.
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badfishnbc
Veteran
Doing you all a favor and leaving through the gate in right field since 2012.
Posts: 477
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Post by badfishnbc on Dec 3, 2013 11:25:15 GMT -5
grandsalami “@dylanohernandez: Sponichi: MLB proposing posting-fee limit for Japanese players. If multiple teams submit max bid, player goes to team with worst record.” So there's your silver lining if you don't get the division and have to slog through the wildcard process.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 3, 2013 11:31:02 GMT -5
Tailor made for a certain Bronx based franchise, no?
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Post by taftreign on Dec 3, 2013 20:05:42 GMT -5
Patrick Newman ?@npbtracker
According to this NPB is ok with an upper limit on posting fees. They're still hung up on MLB's proposed limit, $20m
Well at a 20 mil upper limit I don't see how a high payroll team will ever get a Japanese player. Even in a year where Boston was horrid they were still 7th and I believe multiple teams would have bid on a player like Tanaka had he been available in that scenario. Wouldn't a team like Houston, Chi Cubs, Chi Sox, Colorado and so forth be willing to pay a 20 mil one time and 12 to 14 mil per year. The only hindrance would be if the players prices elevate into the 17 or 18 mil per in which low payroll teams may choose to pass.
Sounds like this premise is going to happen with a higher cap say in the neighborhood of $40m. More MLB strong arming to suppress expenditures and fair value to the NPB.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 3, 2013 20:16:36 GMT -5
Patrick Newman ?@npbtracker According to this NPB is ok with an upper limit on posting fees. They're still hung up on MLB's proposed limit, $20m Well at a 20 mil upper limit I don't see how a high payroll team will ever get a Japanese player. Even in a year where Boston was horrid they were still 7th and I believe multiple teams would have bid on a player like Tanaka had he been available in that scenario. Wouldn't a team like Houston, Chi Cubs, Chi Sox, Colorado and so forth be willing to pay a 20 mil one time and 12 to 14 mil per year. The only hindrance would be if the players prices elevate into the 17 or 18 mil per in which low payroll teams may choose to pass. Sounds like this premise is going to happen with a higher cap say in the neighborhood of $40m. More MLB strong arming to suppress expenditures and fair value to the NPB. I think they should just make them free agents and then MLB pay the posting fee.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 3, 2013 22:28:45 GMT -5
If you're going to go so far as putting caps on the bids, then you might as well just slot contract terms right with the bids. I don't see why salaries would go up with lower bids. The MLB teams still have the same leverage and leverage drives price not the bid amount.
Bid 40m = 6 years at 20per
Bid 30m. =. 5 years at 13
Teams then have to think long and hard about maxing their bids etc.
The numbers above are not thought out very well but used to illustrate a theory that is more a brainstorm then a belief of what should happen. Can't wait for Bud Castro to retire.
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Post by jmei on Dec 3, 2013 22:44:28 GMT -5
Can't wait for Bud Castro to retire. Don't forget that he works for the owners, who are almost unanimously shrew businessmen. It's just management vs. labor, and same as it always does, management tends to win.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2013 23:37:17 GMT -5
Can't wait for Bud Castro to retire. Don't forget that he works for the owners, who are almost unanimously shrew businessmen. It's just management vs. labor, and same as it always does, management tends to win. No that was just Marge Schott.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 4, 2013 0:07:27 GMT -5
More slotting.....wonderful. If Theo or Hank want to spend $120 to acquire a #2 starter, let them. All of this just makes the decision to punt on the Darvish bidding that much more regrettable. THAT was a pitcher worth investing a ton of money in....
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2013 9:05:40 GMT -5
Anyone believe that Lucchino will see the Ellsbury signing as challenge to outbid the Yankmees on Tanaka?
Like Lou, I was all in for Darvish and feel like that mistake gets magnified with time. But a 25 year old #2 pitcher is nothing to sneeze at, especially when MLB just forked over $30M in TV money and none of the posting fee counts towards the LuxTax. This is a rich organization with a variety of revenue streams, significant TV revenue, and they will raise ticket prices after winning the World Series. The posting fee could be amortized over the life of the 6 year contract while Tanaka instantly becomes a significant asset - and not just because you've acquired a 25 year old #2 starter. He also allows you to deal TWO of Peavy/Doubront/Lackey for even more high value, low cost assets. I know they're doing the math but a little three dimensional thinking on this and it becomes a huge win that should offset the posting fee over the next 6 years.
And aside from the high upside benefits to the team, a by product is sticking a thumb in the eye of MFYs, which is nice.
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Post by p23w on Dec 4, 2013 9:45:25 GMT -5
Anyone believe that Lucchino will see the Ellsbury signing as challenge to outbid the Yankmees on Tanaka? Yes.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 4, 2013 10:29:34 GMT -5
Anyone believe that Lucchino will see the Ellsbury signing as challenge to outbid the Yankmees on Tanaka? Like Lou, I was all in for Darvish and feel like that mistake gets magnified with time. But a 25 year old #2 pitcher is nothing to sneeze at, especially when MLB just forked over $30M in TV money and none of the posting fee counts towards the LuxTax. This is a rich organization with a variety of revenue streams, significant TV revenue, and they will raise ticket prices after winning the World Series. The posting fee could be amortized over the life of the 6 year contract while Tanaka instantly becomes a significant asset - and not just because you've acquired a 25 year old #2 starter. He also allows you to deal TWO of Peavy/Doubront/Lackey for even more high value, low cost assets. I know they're doing the math but a little three dimensional thinking on this and it becomes a huge win that should offset the posting fee over the next 6 years. And aside from the high upside benefits to the team, a by product is sticking a thumb in the eye of MFYs, which is nice. Couldn't agree more. I think Napoli is a must bring back guy but besides that I would love to see them get Tanaka. Not sure how the team looks at the posting fee charge but from a salary/aav point it's a great value, which is how I think big market teams approaching the payroll tax should look at it
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2013 16:19:47 GMT -5
does it matter what lucchino thinks?
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 4, 2013 16:24:46 GMT -5
Sox pitching now and for the forseeable future is in good shape without Tanaka. In addition, Sox got burned to the tune of approx $100 million on Dice K. They will stay out of posting wars for far east player. It really doesn't make sense They should stick to the MLB draft and develop pitchers that way. It has been working for them.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2013 16:44:18 GMT -5
So "far east players" - have you heard of this guy, Yu Darvish? If they had spent 53M two years ago they would still be congratulating themselves on their foresight and genius.
Tanaka is not DiceK. Nor is he Darvish or Uehara or Tazawa or Hideo Nomo. And if the Red Sox are discounting Tanaka because they feel like DiceK was a failed venture they should immediately fire anyone in the front office who advocates that mentality.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2013 16:54:23 GMT -5
I can easily make an argument that Sox pitching could be in trouble starting in 2015.
The rotation could be:
1. Fragile Buchholz 2. Old Lackey pitching for the league minimum 3. Doubront - still being inconsistent 4 and 5. unproven rookie or shaky free agent options (look at project free agents)
no reliability high upside/ huge downside potential
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2013 17:22:11 GMT -5
@jonmorosi 4m Sources confirm MLB-NPB agreement near, with NPB clubs indicating they will accept $20 million maximum bid.
Massive. Virtually every MLB team will bid on Tanaka now IF he's posted. Team with worst record and tying bid gets the right to negotiate.
This throws a monkey wrench in the MFYs off season's plan. Teams with worse records will likely bid (Cubs, Phils, Angels…Houston).
Wow.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2013 17:27:48 GMT -5
@jonmorosi 4m Sources confirm MLB-NPB agreement near, with NPB clubs indicating they will accept $20 million maximum bid. Massive. Virtually every MLB team will bid on Tanaka now IF he's posted. Team with worst record and tying bid gets the right to negotiate. This throws a monkey wrench in the MFYs off season's plan. Teams with worse records will likely bid (Cubs, Phils, Angels…Houston). Wow. its conflcting. Some are saying the player gets to pick and some say based on record… Not confirmed yet
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2013 17:36:03 GMT -5
Joel Sherman ?@joelsherman1 now MLB offer to NPB was max posting bid $20M, any team willing to pay can negotiate with plyr for prescribed 1-month period. Plyr picks team
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 4, 2013 17:40:17 GMT -5
Bill Shaikin ?@billshaikin 34m Also, as @dylanohernandez notes, Tanaka's club voted against posting proposal. Club has to agree to post him. More twists and turns to come.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2013 17:42:53 GMT -5
Joel Sherman ?@joelsherman1 now MLB offer to NPB was max posting bid $20M, any team willing to pay can negotiate with plyr for prescribed 1-month period. Plyr picks team So if you are Tanaka's team, do you even post him this year for $20M when you were expecting $70-80M or do you bring him back and win again, while paying him all of $3M a year?
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Post by mainesox on Dec 4, 2013 17:45:19 GMT -5
Joel Sherman ?@joelsherman1 now MLB offer to NPB was max posting bid $20M, any team willing to pay can negotiate with plyr for prescribed 1-month period. Plyr picks team So if you are Tanaka's team, do you even post him this year for $20M when you were expecting $70-80M or do you bring him back and win again, while paying him all of $3M a year? I wonder if we'd see an exception made for him; didn't they do that with one of the bigger Cuban defectors when they changed the international rules?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2013 17:52:47 GMT -5
One wonders if NPB agreed to low figure to keep players from getting posted.
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