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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2013 9:08:48 GMT -5
?@ken_Rosenthal 26m Source says deal with NPB on new posting system is “very close.” To get Japanese player, MLB clubs must be willing to pay his team $20M.
@ken_Rosenthal 24m Clarification: $20M will be the maximum bid, not the required bid.
@ken_Rosenthal 27m If multiple clubs willing to pay $20M, Japanese player can negotiate with all of them. Only the signing team will be required to pay $20M.
?@ken_Rosenthal 27m Luxury tax will apply only to salary, not posting fee. So, #Yankees would be exempt only from $20M if they signed Tanaka. Not good for them.
?@ken_Rosenthal 25m MLB expects Tanaka and others will still be posted. Otherwise, Japanese players might demand earlier free agency. Currently must wait 9 yrs.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 5, 2013 9:18:19 GMT -5
Summary:
timdierkes ?@timdierkes 29m Under new posting system, seems that Tanaka will basically be a free agent with a $20MM tax. Tons of teams should reach a $20MM posting bid.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 9:23:04 GMT -5
The fact that only the signing team will actually have to pay the $20m posting fee means that if it's pretty certain that at least one club will bid $20m, every club should bid $20m. After all, they won't have to pay the posting fee if they don't reach agreement on a deal, and there's always a chance that Tanaka really liked Kansas City or St. Pete or whatever.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 5, 2013 9:24:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I hope Taz and Koji can put a good word in for us
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 9:39:48 GMT -5
If I'm Seattle I have to be in on Tanaka. Already a connection with the Washington area and Japanese players and fans. Additionally if they can't get a bat, even being willing to give Ellsbury a nine year deal and failing, then they should sign pitchers and trade for a bat using T. Walker as bait.
In general if it's not a pure money decision for the player then one would hypothesize the most likely landing spots in order may be Seattle, MFY, Boston based on past experiences.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2013 10:53:49 GMT -5
If I'm the Sox I am definitely in on him, especially with Lester hitting his walk year and who - if Tigers extend Scherzer - will be the #1 starter on the Free Agent market next year and will prob get 6 years/$120M min, which Sox won't do. If Tanaka does project as a #2 he could be a cheaper, and much younger alternative (and he gives you made trade possibilities with the current rotation.
Then again, if I'm Seattle, I trade Walker in a package for Price AND get Tanaka.
This will be a fun food fight to watch.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 11:04:36 GMT -5
This will be a fun food fight to watch. I don't know, man. I actually always hate these free agent bidding wars. It sucks if you don't get the guy (because you've dreamed about him all offseason), but if you do, it probably means you fell victim to the winner's curse. I prefer sudden coups (like the Adrian Gonzalez deal, for instance).
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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 12:13:31 GMT -5
?@ken_Rosenthal 26m Source says deal with NPB on new posting system is “very close.” To get Japanese player, MLB clubs must be willing to pay his team $20M. @ken_Rosenthal 24m Clarification: $20M will be the maximum bid, not the required bid. @ken_Rosenthal 27m If multiple clubs willing to pay $20M, Japanese player can negotiate with all of them. Only the signing team will be required to pay $20M. ?@ken_Rosenthal 27m Luxury tax will apply only to salary, not posting fee. So, #Yankees would be exempt only from $20M if they signed Tanaka. Not good for them. ?@ken_Rosenthal 25m MLB expects Tanaka and others will still be posted. Otherwise, Japanese players might demand earlier free agency. Currently must wait 9 yrs. 2 points. Japanese players union must have put real fear into the NBP with regard to their own free agency rules. Would not be at all surprised if the posting team got a piece of the players new contract. An "agents" or "finders" fee.
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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 12:16:47 GMT -5
If I'm Seattle I have to be in on Tanaka. Already a connection with the Washington area and Japanese players and fans. Additionally if they can't get a bat, even being willing to give Ellsbury a nine year deal and failing, then they should sign pitchers and trade for a bat using T. Walker as bait. In general if it's not a pure money decision for the player then one would hypothesize the most likely landing spots in order may be Seattle, MFY, Boston based on past experiences. Now would be a good time for the Mariners to take Ichiro off the Yankees hands.
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Post by jrffam05 on Dec 5, 2013 13:26:12 GMT -5
I think there will easily be more teams making the max bid than don't, if not 80% of them. They don't pay if they don't sign him. Sox should def make the bid, just for the chance to get him on a good deal (and screw the Yankees).
I think this is fair, or a much fairer way than the previous system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 23:08:47 GMT -5
To me, logical progression is this: Japanese teams have no incentive to post players earlier than needed, unless they need the money for some particular reason (as mentioned above, they're probably getting $20M whether the player is 26 or whether he's 29, so why not wait?). But if that happens, players freak out and demand that the 9 years of team control gets decreased.
Only way that progression doesn't happen is if the owners see it coming and still post the players, although I could see them maybe waiting a year or two longer than they would have otherwise.
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 5, 2013 23:38:20 GMT -5
To me, logical progression is this: Japanese teams have no incentive to post players earlier than needed, unless they need the money for some particular reason (as mentioned above, they're probably getting $20M whether the player is 26 or whether he's 29, so why not wait?). But if that happens, players freak out and demand that the 9 years of team control gets decreased. Only way that progression doesn't happen is if the owners see it coming and still post the players, although I could see them maybe waiting a year or two longer than they would have otherwise. I would say injury risk could be an incentive to post the guy earlier rather than later, but with the max posting fee being so low, I wonder how much a major injury would even have. Would an elite player who would get a $20M posting bid today get the same thing if he missed a year with TJ or something? I think maybe, and his contract would just be lower
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Dec 6, 2013 0:36:06 GMT -5
At some point, someone in Japan will challenge this system legally. It's in the Japanese owners interest to move now. If it were not, why would they be willing to max out the signing fee at $20 mil now? They are doing it for a reason. At some point some player in Japan is going to cause a rukus over this because they might just have a case. Rakuten maybe getting $70 mil over the rights to even talk to this guy. It's gotten ridiculous.
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Post by bmitchsox on Dec 6, 2013 0:45:29 GMT -5
If I'm Seattle I have to be in on Tanaka. Already a connection with the Washington area and Japanese players and fans. Additionally if they can't get a bat, even being willing to give Ellsbury a nine year deal and failing, then they should sign pitchers and trade for a bat using T. Walker as bait. In general if it's not a pure money decision for the player then one would hypothesize the most likely landing spots in order may be Seattle, MFY, Boston based on past experiences. For only 20mil id love to see the sox sign Tanaka and then maybe trade Lackey or Peavy. I'd love it if the Sox could be the team to get T. Walker. Maybe Lackey, Dempster w half his contract eaten, Mookie Betts, Bryce Brentz for Walker?
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Post by patrmac04 on Dec 6, 2013 1:59:41 GMT -5
To me, logical progression is this: Japanese teams have no incentive to post players earlier than needed, unless they need the money for some particular reason (as mentioned above, they're probably getting $20M whether the player is 26 or whether he's 29, so why not wait?). But if that happens, players freak out and demand that the 9 years of team control gets decreased. Only way that progression doesn't happen is if the owners see it coming and still post the players, although I could see them maybe waiting a year or two longer than they would have otherwise. The highest paid Japanese player only makes $5.76 million and Tanaka is third highest paid at $4.04 million notanotherbaseballblog.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/what-do-npb-baseball-players-get-paid-2013-update/The team he is on is considered a small market team in Japan and this is five times the amount of salary he would get. That would be like somebody coming to the MLB and saying they wanted to buy Johan Santana with five times his current salary, but when he was in his prime... so about $125 million dollars since he is the third highest paid guy in the league. If the player gets hurt, they don't get paid. They have a vested interest in getting rid of the guy ASAP. This is basically an entire team's payroll there even at the lowered $20 million.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,123
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Post by jimoh on Dec 6, 2013 11:37:11 GMT -5
With Cano news, Yankee now super-motivated to sign Tanaka if he's available.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 6, 2013 11:50:42 GMT -5
At some point, someone in Japan will challenge this system legally. It's in the Japanese owners interest to move now. If it were not, why would they be willing to max out the signing fee at $20 mil now? They are doing it for a reason. At some point some player in Japan is going to cause a rukus over this because they might just have a case. Rakuten maybe getting $70 mil over the rights to even talk to this guy. It's gotten ridiculous. I think you have a good point but I also think your missing something. MLB is in control here as they have an agreement with the other league to NOT sign Japanese players from their League until after 9 yrs service time or the posting way. However that is not bound in stone as with Taz who was Japanese but not signed into their league. We saw that happen this last year with the young player who just about didn't sign into their league this year. Now it is the Japanese player's right to sign on in Japan just as it is here in our draft. Once that happens it is between their players union and their ownership to work out their player and team rights which they do by the way. The players can sign on with another league (if they are wanted) BUT they can never come back and play in the Japanese league if they do (that is their agreement not ours). Mlb now honors the wish of the Japanese league to not sign away players from that league until they reach the agreed years of team control. MLB doesn't as a group have to honor that agreement if our owners get together and agree not to in reality. I therefore don't see that there is anything for the Japanese players to sue for especially as their players association was noted the other day to be in negotiations as to whether to agree within their league the other day.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 6, 2013 17:29:32 GMT -5
This will be a fun food fight to watch. I don't know, man. I actually always hate these free agent bidding wars. It sucks if you don't get the guy (because you've dreamed about him all offseason), but if you do, it probably means you fell victim to the winner's curse. I prefer sudden coups (like the Adrian Gonzalez deal, for instance). I do very much want Tanaka for all the reasons I've listed thus far, but I am pretty realistic about this, and now with the Yankee's foaming desperation, I am less than optimistic. I love the Gonzalez deal and quick strikes, and loved that Theo tried to make several of these happen - and next to Gonzo, the near-King Felix deal being heard about with no inkling it was in motion was almost as much as a shocker as if it would've been done. That said, I am hoping Ben gets equally creative and we wake up one morning during the Winter meeting and hear about how Ben has traded Doubront and Barnes to Chicago for Rizzo (or something like that).
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 8, 2013 20:58:58 GMT -5
I could see us going hard after him if we trade one of our starters
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 8, 2013 21:19:40 GMT -5
This is quite different: SUNDAY, 3:15pm: Japanese teams will be able to set a desired amount for the posting fee up to a maximum of $20MM, reports Mainichi. Once the Japanese team sets the posting fee, it will be made public to all 30 MLB clubs and all teams who tender that figure will be able to negotiate with the player. The Mainichi report adds the new posting system is expected to go into effect as early as next week and will pave the way for Tanaka to be posted. www.mlbtraderumors.com/ADD: It doesn't say if there is a refund if the player signs with another club. Although the interest for a few weeks on $20m x whatever would be substantial, it doesn't sound logical. Let's keep in mind too that these are rumors at this point.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 8, 2013 23:29:50 GMT -5
This is quite different: SUNDAY, 3:15pm: Japanese teams will be able to set a desired amount for the posting fee up to a maximum of $20MM, reports Mainichi. Once the Japanese team sets the posting fee, it will be made public to all 30 MLB clubs and all teams who tender that figure will be able to negotiate with the player. The Mainichi report adds the new posting system is expected to go into effect as early as next week and will pave the way for Tanaka to be posted. www.mlbtraderumors.com/ADD: It doesn't say if there is a refund if the player signs with another club. Although the interest for a few weeks on $20m x whatever would be substantial, it doesn't sound logical. Let's keep in mind too that these are rumors at this point. Unless they've completely changed the system, you don't pay the posting fee unless you sign the player. There's no way teams would agree to a system in which they'd pay a posting fee without a guarantee the player was going to sign.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 8, 2013 23:47:33 GMT -5
I could see us going hard after him if we trade one of our starters While I'd like to see the Sox go after Tanaka, I don't really see it happening. I expect the Yanks and Dodgers to fight it out for him and I expect the Yankees to come away with him. I'd be surprised if it's anybody else. Tanaka will probably be posted real soon. Don't know if Peavy or Dempster will be dealt by then. Most likely not. I wouldn't expect them to be dealt until most of the other pitchers are off the board and a team gets desperate. At that point, I'd hope it would be Dempster. I still think there's a chance that Peavy can help the Sox in 2014 and be a much better pitcher than he showed those last two outings.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2013 0:32:12 GMT -5
I could see us going hard after him if we trade one of our starters While I'd like to see the Sox go after Tanaka, I don't really see it happening. I expect the Yanks and Dodgers to fight it out for him and I expect the Yankees to come away with him. I'd be surprised if it's anybody else. Tanaka will probably be posted real soon. Don't know if Peavy or Dempster will be dealt by then. Most likely not. I wouldn't expect them to be dealt until most of the other pitchers are off the board and a team gets desperate. At that point, I'd hope it would be Dempster. I still think there's a chance that Peavy can help the Sox in 2014 and be a much better pitcher than he showed those last two outings. Point taken but I have no idea why the Dodgers would be heavy bidders here. Seattle seems much more likely to me. There's also now rumors that he won't be posted. Some baseball sources tell Rosenthal that they think Rakuten Golden Eagles President Yozo Tachibana might follow through on a threat to not post Masahiro Tanaka. Tachibana is considered "something of a maverick" by MLB execs, and Tanaka's value is set to plummet for Rakuten under a posting system in which the maximum fee is $20MM, Rosenthal says.from MLBTradeRumors
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 9, 2013 0:39:12 GMT -5
I could see us going hard after him if we trade one of our starters While I'd like to see the Sox go after Tanaka, I don't really see it happening. I expect the Yanks and Dodgers to fight it out for him and I expect the Yankees to come away with him. I'd be surprised if it's anybody else. Tanaka will probably be posted real soon. Don't know if Peavy or Dempster will be dealt by then. Most likely not. I wouldn't expect them to be dealt until most of the other pitchers are off the board and a team gets desperate. At that point, I'd hope it would be Dempster. I still think there's a chance that Peavy can help the Sox in 2014 and be a much better pitcher than he showed those last two outings. NOT SO FAST nypost.com/2013/12/08/yanks-must-shed-a-rods-salary-to-beat-luxury-tax/
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Post by elguapo on Dec 9, 2013 9:24:00 GMT -5
I think the field will be fairly wide open. There's a lot of money floating around baseball these days and a front of the rotation starter is the ultimate bait.
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