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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2013 15:34:45 GMT -5
Why the... is Gomes still in the line-up? Farrell's mancrush is nice but Nava hits righties better, gets on more often and catches both those balls to left last night. Period. We look at numbers to predict success. It's really the entire point. The team is unbeaten in starts Gomes has made. Is it because he's in the lineup? It's easy to argue it's not, but the bottom line are wins and losses. If nothing else, it hasn't hurt the team and in a couple instances Gomes has come through in games people wanted Nava. We can call it luck or whatever, but the fact remains there is no way the team could have had better results with Nava in there over Gomes. So what are we actually upset about? Nava having hurt feelings?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 24, 2013 15:44:44 GMT -5
Why the... is Gomes still in the line-up? Farrell's mancrush is nice but Nava hits righties better, gets on more often and catches both those balls to left last night. Period. We look at numbers to predict success. It's really the entire point. The team is unbeaten in starts Gomes has made. Is it because he's in the lineup? It's easy to argue it's not, but the bottom line are wins and losses. If nothing else, it hasn't hurt the team and in a couple instances Gomes has come through in games people wanted Nava. We can call it luck or whatever, but the fact remains there is no way the team could have had better results with Nava in there over Gomes. So what are we actually upset about? Nava having hurt feelings? Nava came in and slapped a stand up double to left last night. Then scored on Xanders sac fly in his first world series game. 1-1 with a double, run. Edit: I meant Nava's first WS at bat and game not post season. My mistake.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2013 15:47:56 GMT -5
I'm not saying he shouldn't play more... If you want to go by numbers then tonight is not the night though. Wacha eats up lefties. Kills them.
Add: it was Nava's first WS game not post season
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 24, 2013 16:06:50 GMT -5
Two things ...
Carlos Beltran is probably my favorite opposition player after Mariano ..., no, scratch that, other than Rivera, Carlos Beltran is the only opposition player I like. I have very mixed feelings about the possibility of our gaining an advantage because he is out or subpar. If it were, say, Molina who got hurt, I'd be delighted. And you can argue that an injury to a key Cardinal is karmic payback for Tony C missing the '67 WS and (with a little opposition karma transference) Jim Rice the '75. But the karma gods could have picked someone else, really.
I looked at the pitch-by-pitch of some of Wacha's last game to see to what extent his brilliance was him and to what extent the Dodgers were doing things a better-prepared team might have avoided. As you might expect, there was some of each. He got behind Puig 2-0 on fastballs and then struck him out with 3 more (swing, foul, taken), and all three were on the edges of the zone. He could have struck out God with those three pitches. That ended the second.
Uribe led off the third and had a classsic "great 9-pitch AB even though he struck out" which in fact was a terrible AB; he fouled off a 1-1 change out of the zone and later fouled off a 3-1 FB out of the zone, so Bogaerts would have walked twice in that PA. And then he swung and missed at a FB directly over the middle of the plate.
In the 4th he got Gonzalez to foul out out chasing a 2-2 FB that was up out of the zone, then got Ramirez to pop up a 3-1 FB that was at the top of the zone and hence must have looked much more hittable than it was. Wacha edges Lester for having the most FB movement of any starter in this series (averaging 12.2"), and it's mostly rise (11.6" versus 3.9" of run). You've got to go up there with the knowledge that everything up in the zone is actually higher than it looks; you take a few of those pitches and ideally, your "muscle memory" encodes the proper adjustment (by putting it in a mental bucket with guys with similar FB hop). . I think a large component of our "grinding PAs" is preparation, which helps you lay off of pitches out of the zone. Wacha can paint with the FB, but a lot of his success comes from getting people to chase the change out of the zone and the fastball up. We'll see if a better prepared team can get to him to the second and third times around the order.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2013 16:07:30 GMT -5
I'm not saying he shouldn't play more... If you want to go by numbers then tonight is not the night though. Wacha eats up lefties. Kills them. Add: it was Nava's first WS game not post season Not if you look at Wacha's AAA numbers - about the same vs. LH as RH. Granted, we are dealing with two sets of small samples here and the guy has been on a roll. Conversely, Nava does eat up righties. And Ericmvan pointed out in a recent post (http://forum.soxprospects.com/post/50517) he becomes almost a two-pitch pitcher vs. LH batters. Add to that his road ERA (again, small sample but we're playing that game right now) and I think it's pretty much a slam dunk that Nava should be the LF over Gomes. Moot unless Gomes comes up with a cramp in the intangibles during BP but this is really irking me on several levels. And Nava's stand-up double coming out off the deep freeze and off the bench after not seeing in-game pitching in almost a week should dispel any of this "hidden" injury BS.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 24, 2013 16:35:30 GMT -5
Lavarnway in short-sleeves (Yale guy!) taking bp with the bench guys. Soundless video of bp on mlb.com
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Post by jmei on Oct 24, 2013 17:42:12 GMT -5
Why the... is Gomes still in the line-up? Farrell's mancrush is nice but Nava hits righties better, gets on more often and catches both those balls to left last night. Period. We look at numbers to predict success. It's really the entire point. The team is unbeaten in starts Gomes has made. Is it because he's in the lineup? It's easy to argue it's not, but the bottom line are wins and losses. If nothing else, it hasn't hurt the team and in a couple instances Gomes has come through in games people wanted Nava. We can call it luck or whatever, but the fact remains there is no way the team could have had better results with Nava in there over Gomes. So what are we actually upset about? Nava having hurt feelings? Because we're concerned about a game that hasn't happened yet, and the best predictor of the future is the past. Gomes' postseason OPS of .483 is precisely 400 points lower than Nava's. If you run tonight's game through a simulator, starting Gomes hurts the team more often than not. End of story.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 24, 2013 17:45:45 GMT -5
I actually like Gomes. I like Nava too.
Just a strange move by Farrell. Not Gomes' fault, he is doing his best out there.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 24, 2013 17:58:18 GMT -5
Gomes is now 5 for 37 lifetime in the post season with a wRC+ of -15. And we are facing ANOTHER RH PITCHER tonight when his splits are clearly bad against RH pitching and it's not like his fielding is a plus either. This is clearly the worst decision Farrell has made all year and he keeps doing it.
Spare me the he's 6-0 so we couldn't have done better argument. I could start at forward for Manchester United and if we beat Everton does that mean I'm better than Wayne Rooney? I don't think so. That position is ridiculous. Nava and Bogaerts now probably have 2 of the best OBP on the team this post season and both have spent most of it on the bench.
I want to win this thing and I don't countenance stupidity when we are paying the guy over a million to make good decisions.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Oct 24, 2013 18:21:27 GMT -5
Gomes is now 5 for 37 lifetime in the post season with a wRC+ of -15. And we are facing ANOTHER RH PITCHER tonight when his splits are clearly bad against RH pitching and it's not like his fielding is a plus either. This is clearly the worst decision Farrell has made all year and he keeps doing it. Spare me the he's 6-0 so we couldn't have done better argument. I could start at forward for Manchester United and if we beat Everton does that mean I'm better than Wayne Rooney? I don't think so. That position is ridiculous. Nava and Bogaerts now probably have 2 of the best OBP on the team this post season and both have spent most of it on the bench. I want to win this thing and I don't countenance stupidity when we are paying the guy over a million to make good decisions. Gomes also .286 .500 .905 1.405 in 30 PAs as a pinch hitter this year (much worse for career). I.e. better off the bench this year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 24, 2013 18:50:55 GMT -5
What keeps getting debated over and over here is this Gomes vs Nava thing.. I'd forget all of that people.. If Bucholz for some reason can't go in game for? Just think about who Farrell sends out there.. It's ain't going to be Doubront. It's going to be the Basebal Pinata version Dempster and the Cardinals are going to Whack him all over the place.
Let's all hope Bucholz really feels as good as he said he does in that story at WeEI this morning, or game 4 is in trouble.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2013 18:51:43 GMT -5
Are these the same models that had the Red Sox winking 85 games and missing the playoffs?
I wonder how many more games this post season they would've won if Nava started over Gomes...
The point is we've spent a lot of time debating or being pusses off about something that hasn't mattered. They're in the WS and up 1-0. It can't be any better and there's nothing else to be said about Nava/Gomes that hasn't been said over and over. Nava will almost certainly get a start in game 3 and it will be deserved .
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 24, 2013 18:53:13 GMT -5
Enjoy the game everyone - talk to you all tomorrow or after it's over
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 24, 2013 19:11:26 GMT -5
What keeps getting debated over and over here is this Gomes vs Nava thing.. I'd forget all of that people.. If Bucholz for some reason can't go in game for? Just think about who Farrell sends out there.. It's ain't going to be Doubront. It's going to be the Basebal Pinata version Dempster and the Cardinals are going to Whack him all over the place. Let's all hope Bucholz really feels as good as he said he does in that story at WeEI this morning, or game 4 is in trouble. Why would it not be Doubront? Last night pretty much showed that Dempster is in a mop up role. Several people have pointed out the Cardinals have struggled against lefties. Seems like Doubront would be perfect for that start. He even threw a sim game to get ready a few days ago.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 24, 2013 19:12:34 GMT -5
Jonny Gomes everyone.
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Post by Guidas on Oct 24, 2013 19:13:05 GMT -5
Look I like Gomes but this has to stop..
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 24, 2013 19:13:16 GMT -5
More like IronGlove vs Ironsides.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Oct 24, 2013 19:16:36 GMT -5
Walka Walka time...
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 24, 2013 19:25:17 GMT -5
What keeps getting debated over and over here is this Gomes vs Nava thing.. I'd forget all of that people.. If Bucholz for some reason can't go in game for? Just think about who Farrell sends out there.. It's ain't going to be Doubront. It's going to be the Basebal Pinata version Dempster and the Cardinals are going to Whack him all over the place. Let's all hope Bucholz really feels as good as he said he does in that story at WeEI this morning, or game 4 is in trouble. Why would it not be Doubront? Last night pretty much showed that Dempster is in a mop up role. Several people have pointed out the Cardinals have struggled against lefties. Seems like Doubront would be perfect for that start. He even threw a sim game to get ready a few days ago. Yeah, it's pretty clearly going to be Doubront. There's a reason they had him throw a sim game two days ago, five days before Game 4...
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 24, 2013 19:47:45 GMT -5
So glad we have Xander hitting behind studs like Salty and Drew.
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wcp3
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Post by wcp3 on Oct 24, 2013 20:11:47 GMT -5
Game over.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 24, 2013 20:19:31 GMT -5
I just got in from evening meetings at church. Are the Sox playing the same rope-a-dope game with Wacha that they did with Anibal/Verlander/Scherzer? I.e., take hittable pitches early in the count and expose themselves to troubles doing anything offensively, just hoping to drive up the pitch count and eventually get the starter out of the game? The St. Louis pen is NOT the Detroit pen.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2013 20:20:27 GMT -5
Dustin Pedroia XBH alert.
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Post by nationinthesouth on Oct 24, 2013 20:20:46 GMT -5
First and foremost this is a Sox prospects site, but even with that have we "made love" to Xander anywhere close to Buck and McCarver on Wacha?
Edit-Yeah, probably
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 24, 2013 20:24:21 GMT -5
Gotta love all the Gomes pop-ups and strikeouts this postseason vs. RHPs. Nothing you can do to fix that, I guess.
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