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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 10, 2013 10:51:00 GMT -5
Two notes:
First, whenever I've played this game I've started with this rule of thumb: never weaken one position to strengthen another. Don't go sideways. Don't downgrade a position at the MLB level, and try not to trade a prospect who looks to be the heir apparent at his position, and/or an upgrade to the incumbent.
And something to keep in mind when thinking about the future at 1B ...
There is a very solid chance that within a year, we'll have a high-OBP LHH at 3B rather than a high-SA RHH. In some of these scenarios, we're doing the same thing at 1B. And that could be problematical. You really don't want a lineup with 6 LHH or switch-hitters with big platoon splits (Ortiz, Ellsbury or Bradley, Nava or Beltran, Carp or Nava or Brandon Belt, Cecchini, Saltalamacchia or Pierzynski). In fact, 5 is probably pushing it. You also don't want a lineup with mostly table-setters rather than power hitters (or vice versa).
OTOH, you don't really want to settle for a lesser player (a probably declining Carlos Ruiz or Ryan Hanigan) just to achieve lineup balance.
The only RHH alternative to Napoli that's been mentioned in the media is Pablo Sandoval. People here have mentioned Paul Konerko and Corey Hart.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 10, 2013 10:55:32 GMT -5
Removing trades from the equation is a grand idea. Though I am a little bit confounded at some of the ideas that seem to just completely gut the farm system. Last year was a magical one for the Sox, and highly unpredicted (I believe even Cherington has said on multiple occasions that their own projections had them around 87-91 wins). So having that great success should in no way have a deviation from the plan of building a team for the next ten seasons, not just 2014. I can see the argument of giving up one pick to sign an area of need, or a couple of pieces to fill that area via reasonable trade (like the majority of the Ramirez discussion, for instance), but not lumping these together.
Baseball America recently ranked the Sox as having the most major league ready talent in the game, and I would like to see a lot of it get its chance, but even more than that, not be sold low (like Middlebrooks) or blocked long term with a signing like giving 4 or more years to McCann. Keep the majority or all of the kids, and bring in some more short term deals to link toward that influx, while not hamstringing the team for the long term .
One thing I would also like to introduce that I have not seen discussed in this thread is establishing some long term contract extension with Lester. My best guess is something along the lines of what Sanchez signed for last off-season in Detroit would be about fair (call it 5yrs/$90m). I am not looking at this as a knee jerk reaction to his admittedly awesome post season, but more as locking up a 200ip horse that can reasonably be expected to give you anne ERA between 3.50-4.50 for the duration of the deal, and has certainly demonstrated the ability to handle Boston, pitch in the post season, and take the ball every five days.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 12:50:37 GMT -5
While I agree trade ideas can get out of hand and in some of these posts they have been beyond realistic I believe we should face the reality that an offseason trade moving one or two of the "major league ready" farm pieces is far more likely now than it has been in the past two seasons. I actually like well thought out trade proposals that work for both teams and show a little creativity that a true GM has to consider.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 12:58:37 GMT -5
I like the proposals best which stay within the budget. Some of these blow right past $189 mil in a heartbeat. Money is obviously a factor and any proposals over budget are just unrealistic.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 13:03:20 GMT -5
I was wondering how everyone felt about Granderson in general. Do you like the player? The fit? Don't love losing our draft pick but not worried about the MFYs getting one for it because they'll get one anyone when inevitably someone else would sign him. I've previously posted my thoughts on Granderson the player here. I agree that he looks to be one of the few buy-low options that might end up returning a lot of surplus value, although that's only if he's available on a three-year deal for QO-ish money. The fit is not perfect, though. If the Red Sox signed him and everyone is healthy, he'd probably have to play in LF, which is not ideal. I had previously thought that there was a chance Granderson plays RF and Victorino plays CF, but the latest quotes make it seem like they really want to keep Victorino in RF. Playing Granderson in LF would squeeze Nava's playing time significantly (unless they trade Carp and give Nava reps at 1B). That isn't the worst thing in the world, since I think Nava is going to regress and would be in favor of a sell-high trade of Carp, but it does involve a lot of moving pieces. For that reason, I think the Red Sox should be interested in Granderson, but mainly as a fall-back option. If Napoli and all the premium catchers sign elsewhere and there's nothing on the trade market, you look into him, but only if those other transactions fall through first.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 13:10:53 GMT -5
First, can Billy Butler play a passable first base on a regular basis at least for a season or two? KC has mentioned his availability. He is quite affordable. Another intriguing idea. Butler was a below average but not unplayable first baseman (career -6.1 UZR, -6 TZ, -7 DRS), but hasn't played more than a handful of games there since 2010. I'd be very hesitant to trust him at first base full-time. It's an option, but only if he comes cheap (the idea of a mutual salary dump for Dempster or Peavy is a good one) and the better options evaporate.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 10, 2013 13:16:22 GMT -5
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 10, 2013 13:18:23 GMT -5
Fair point on the idea of one or two trades being made, specifically with some position redundancy, but the point remains that I would not want to trade a player at the lower end of his value. This almost entirely means guys that are near MLB ready, but had some tough times last year, mostly including Middlebrooks, Bradley, Webster, DeLaRosa and to a lesser extent Workman, who was of course nails in the playoffs.
I think the team would be far better served looking to deal one of Carp / Nava and then guys who could end upon the 40man roster crunch, either for a similar talent but further off prospect, or some AAA depth (this years Brandon Snyder type).
Of course if let's say Colorado wants to trade Carlos Gonzalez and his cost certainty for Middlebrooks, Britton and Brentz , then of course, but I don't see that type of deal as being realistic. Thus I think there is more value in seeing if Middlebrooks is closer to his second half splits (this is what I think) as opposed to his first half when he was both coming off a wrist injury and dealing with a broken rib. He is exactly the type of player I would rather give a full season shot to, than trade at the likely bottom of his value. The same type of argument stand for similarly situated players.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 13:28:42 GMT -5
The more I think about the available first base options, the more I wish the Red Sox had signed Jose Abreu.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 10, 2013 14:16:15 GMT -5
The more I think about the available first base options, the more I wish the Red Sox had signed Jose Abreu. Logically I agree with you 100%. The timing was just so bad. I wish the guy was available now. If he had been available in mid to late October and the Sox were sitting home, then that could have worked out well, but the Red Sox wrecked that plan by winning the World Series (yes, I'm being facetious) and Napoli was bashing clutch HRs around the time Abreu was being signed. It would have looked awful if the Sox signed Napoli's replacement and sent a loud signal that even though Napoli is currently bashing HRs in meaningful games, he will not be back for sure next year. Looks does not equal logic, I know, but that was just such a bad timing issue for the Sox. If he were available then he'd be a guy I'd hope the Sox jumped in on, but given the circumstances, I can' blame them for not going all out for him. If Napoli splits, then you're hoping Carp can play the duration of the season the way he did last season and you're wondering where the RH power in the lineup comes from (although Xander might have something to say about that) and you're also wondering who you bring in to either platoon with Carp if need be or replace Carp if he falters. There's not a lot worth having out there.
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Post by stabbin31 on Nov 10, 2013 15:02:10 GMT -5
Sooooo no one thinks a Lavarnway/Ross platoon would work?
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 10, 2013 15:31:49 GMT -5
Sooooo no one thinks a Lavarnway/Ross platoon would work? I don't for one. Lavarnway should hit to be valuable. The .696 OPS he had for Pawtucket this season isn't going to cut it. If we're staying in house I'd rather go with Butler out of ST and Vazquez later in the season.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 15:35:59 GMT -5
The more I think about the available first base options, the more I wish the Red Sox had signed Jose Abreu. I wish more of you guys felt that way a few weeks ago. It seemed that at least half of us didn't want to pull that trigger at all. I was dumped on big time for that proposal and he ended up signing for what I projected. He was a risk worth taking, with little cap impact compared to other options and the potential upside was better than any of our current options.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 15:40:52 GMT -5
Sooooo no one thinks a Lavarnway/Ross platoon would work? I have no problem with it at all but didn't want to argue about it again here. All people remember is what is bad about Lavarnway. He hit last year at the mlb level and he is just starting out. And he's cheap as hell. If the guy was better with balls in the dirt I would absolutely like him better than almost any potential $5 mil solution out there. We could go cheap at catcher and be able to use the cash saved elsewhere. He's not that bad and might even develop into a better hitter than Salty ever was. And it's not like Salty was a defensive masterpiece. That's how I feel about Lavarnway. I still think he gets a raw deal and warrants more PT.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 15:42:19 GMT -5
But there is zero indication Farrell is going to put him in as next year's starter so why bother to consider it?
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 10, 2013 15:55:14 GMT -5
But there is zero indication Farrell is going to put him in as next year's starter so why bother to consider it? As he shouldn't, Lavarnway is not a MLB catcher because of his defense. And yes, he's way worse than Salty there (which is saying something).
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 16:15:28 GMT -5
The more I think about the available first base options, the more I wish the Red Sox had signed Jose Abreu. I wish more of you guys felt that way a few weeks ago. It seemed that at least half of us didn't want to pull that trigger at all. I was dumped on big time for that proposal and he ended up signing for what I projected. He was a risk worth taking, with little cap impact compared to other options and the potential upside was better than any of our current options. To be fair, the reason everyone disagreed with you was because you thought Abreu was less risky than Lebron James.
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Post by anthonyws2013 on Nov 10, 2013 16:37:11 GMT -5
2013-2014 Off-season agenda
1. Resign - Mike Napoli for 2 years 14-16 million per - Receive draft picks for Ellsbury and Drew, let Salty walk.
2. Trades - Look to trade Dempster or Peavy if you feel like your going to get better, I like having them but we have a lot more options on the farm that can step up at a much cheaper price. -Feel out the Price, Cargo, and Stanton price tags
3. Free Agents -Go hard after Brian McCann offering nothing more then 4 years, 15-16 mill per - Turn attention to Carlos Ruiz at 2 years and 8-9 mill per if McCann declines -See if you can make a play for Beltran for 1 year with an option, 15 mill per - Sign one of Mujica, Crain, or Veras for 1-2 years, 4-5 mill per -Post a number for the Tanaka sweepstakes but nothing outrageous
Opening Day 25 Man Roster
1. Shane Victorino RF 2. Dustin Pedroia 2B 3. David Ortiz D.H. 4. Mike Napoli 1B -- 2 years 32 million 5. Brian McCann C -- 4 years 66 million 6. Daniel Nava LF 7. Xander Bogearts SS 8. Will Middlebrooks 3B 9. Jackie Bradley CF
Bench David Ross C Johnny Gomes OF Mike Carp 1b/OF Brock Holt INF
Pitchers 1. Jon Lester 2. Clay Bucholtz 3. John Lackey 4. Jake Peavy 5. Felix Doubrount
Relievers Koji Uehera CL Craig Breslow SU Jesse Crain SU -- 2 years 9 million Junichi Tazawa MR Andrew Miller LHS Ryan Dempster MR Brandon Workman LR
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Post by ramireja on Nov 10, 2013 18:23:36 GMT -5
2013-2014 Off-season agenda 1. Resign - Mike Napoli for 2 years 14-16 million per - Receive draft picks for Ellsbury and Drew, let Salty walk. 2. Trades - Look to trade Dempster or Peavy if you feel like your going to get better, I like having them but we have a lot more options on the farm that can step up at a much cheaper price. -Feel out the Price, Cargo, and Stanton price tags 3. Free Agents -Go hard after Brian McCann offering nothing more then 4 years, 15-16 mill per - Turn attention to Carlos Ruiz at 2 years and 8-9 mill per if McCann declines -See if you can make a play for Beltran for 1 year with an option, 15 mill per - Sign one of Mujica, Crain, or Veras for 1-2 years, 4-5 mill per -Post a number for the Tanaka sweepstakes but nothing outrageous Opening Day 25 Man Roster 1. Shane Victorino RF 2. Dustin Pedroia 2B 3. David Ortiz D.H. 4. Mike Napoli 1B -- 2 years 32 million 5. Brian McCann C -- 4 years 66 million 6. Daniel Nava LF 7. Xander Bogearts SS 8. Will Middlebrooks 3B 9. Jackie Bradley CF Bench David Ross C Johnny Gomes OF Mike Carp 1b/OF Brock Holt INF Pitchers 1. Jon Lester 2. Clay Bucholtz 3. John Lackey 4. Jake Peavy 5. Felix Doubrount Relievers Koji Uehera CL Craig Breslow SU Jesse Crain SU -- 2 years 9 million Junichi Tazawa MR Andrew Miller LHS Ryan Dempster MR Brandon Workman LR You're a first time poster AND you posted a very conservative and feasible offseason plan?! Who do you think you are?!
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 18:40:44 GMT -5
I wish more of you guys felt that way a few weeks ago. It seemed that at least half of us didn't want to pull that trigger at all. I was dumped on big time for that proposal and he ended up signing for what I projected. He was a risk worth taking, with little cap impact compared to other options and the potential upside was better than any of our current options. To be fair, the reason everyone disagreed with you was because you thought Abreu was less risky than Lebron James. No, I said something to the effect that IF we had enough data for Nike to project a $90 mil shoe deal for Lebron James when he hadn't even set foot on an NBA court yet, we had enough data to evaluate Abreu considering his 10 years of PT in Cuba's top league, plus a lot of international competitions. At no point did I say Abreu is less risky than Lebron James. Abreu is commanding a lot less salary than James right? I even projected Abreu's contract accurately, when everyone else was underestimating it. The point was that he wasn't the unknown he was made out to be. He wasn't a sure thing but he is a solid bet. He's highly likely to put up numbers similar or better to what Cespedes has put up in his time in mlb. Probably better for both average and OBP with similar power. He is younger than Napoli and a better bet overall in my book going forward. He was worth what they signed him for. Now we have little leverage.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Nov 10, 2013 19:24:05 GMT -5
To be fair, the reason everyone disagreed with you was because you thought Abreu was less risky than Lebron James. No, I said something to the effect that IF we had enough data for Nike to project a $90 mil shoe deal for Lebron James when he hadn't even set foot on an NBA court yet, we had enough data to evaluate Abreu considering his 10 years of PT in Cuba's top league, plus a lot of international competitions. At no point did I say Abreu is less risky than Lebron James. Abreu is commanding a lot less salary than James right? I even projected Abreu's contract accurately, when everyone else was underestimating it. The point was that he wasn't the unknown he was made out to be. He wasn't a sure thing but he is a solid bet. He's highly likely to put up numbers similar or better to what Cespedes has put up in his time in mlb. Probably better for both average and OBP with similar power. He is younger than Napoli and a better bet overall in my book going forward. He was worth what they signed him for. Now we have little leverage. You better hope he's better than Cespedes because .265/.324/.472 isn't special at 1B when you have no real defensive value and you can't run.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 10, 2013 19:34:52 GMT -5
I have no recollection of what the previous conversation was but I for one am happy to not have that contract for such an unknown with huge bust potential. He brings zero value outside his bat do unless it's a real good bat it's going to be a poor contract. Not a risk worth taking for the Red Sox.
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Post by uconnsox on Nov 10, 2013 20:54:56 GMT -5
Here is what I would do:
Sign Jhonny Peralta, 2 years 26 million. Effectively a stopgap at 3B and let Cechinni get a chance to become the everyday 3B in 2015. Second year would be a team option with a somewhat large buyout, so that the Sox can decide whether or not they are ready to move on. Backup SS. First year pays 16 million, with a 10 million team option and 5 million dollar buyout. Slides into the 5 hole, won't go crazy in playoffs against us next year.
Sign Jesse Crain, 2 years 10 million. Good arm that puts our bullpen on the next level, however good that may be.
Sign Trevor Crowe, 2 years 6 million. Gets some playing time in center against lefties, backs up Bradley and Victorino. Cheap backup, quality player.
Middlebrooks moves to first, Dempster moves to bullpen. Long reliever who gets 10-15 spot starts, 6th starter. Ross becomes "starting" catcher, Butler and Vasquez eventually platoon with him.
1. Victorino RF 2. Nava LF 3. Pedroia 2B 4. Ortiz DH 5. Peralta 3B 6. Xander SS 7. Middlebrooks 1B 8. Ross C 9. JBJ CF
Gomes OF Crowe OF Carp 1B Butler C
Lester Lackey Buchholz Doubront Peavy
Uehara Tazawa Crain Breslow Workman Miller Dempster
4 first round picks.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 10, 2013 21:12:48 GMT -5
Two notes: First, whenever I've played this game I've started with this rule of thumb: never weaken one position to strengthen another. Don't go sideways. Don't downgrade a position at the MLB level, and try not to trade a prospect who looks to be the heir apparent at his position, and/or an upgrade to the incumbent This is a good rule of thumb in the abstract, but it doesn't really hold water when a team is worried about the salary cap. That creates something closer to a zero-sum game, where you have to take from one to give to another. It'd be great to hold onto both Peavy and Dempster because (sing it with me, everyone!) you can never have enough pitching. Or, at the very least, it'd be good to keep Peavy. But they really need to dump one of them to make room under $189 million for everything else they should do, and it's unlikely you'll be able to do that with Dempster and still get substantial relief. So, I think the Sox will likely find the need to bite the bullet and trade Peavy so they can get better somewhere else. And, relatedly, this is part of why it's tough to do this exercise without including trades in the mix. I mean, clearly everyone should be realistic and not do the Mega Trade Of Half The Farm System or the NYYFans route of "4 random pieces for other team's superstar," but trying to think through this without any trades is very unrealistic in its own way.
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Post by Don Caballero on Nov 10, 2013 21:36:51 GMT -5
No, I said something to the effect that IF we had enough data for Nike to project a $90 mil shoe deal for Lebron James when he hadn't even set foot on an NBA court yet, we had enough data to evaluate Abreu considering his 10 years of PT in Cuba's top league, plus a lot of international competitions. Come on man, I'm not even going to point out how wrong this analogy is, I'm just gonna let you figure it out for yourself.
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