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Create your own adventure: You're the GM!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 9, 2013 19:52:58 GMT -5
Folks, we might just start deleting posts that have no basis in reality (e.g., trades that are laughably one-sided).
Before posting a trade, put yourself in the position of the other team and ask yourself if you'd accept the trade. If you laugh, don't post it. If you don't know enough about the other player to do this, don't post it.
Please, keep things realistic here.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 9, 2013 19:59:40 GMT -5
I like that 'Chavez as a backup' idea since he is left handed and can play the corners. But this would mean that the Red Sox bench would feature only 1 OF and would need a middle-infielder still.
If they have Chavez, then I feel much better with Holt as that infielder BUT I don't feel comfortable without a safety net for Jackie Bradley and, in case he isn't ready to be a full time starter, an OF of Gomes/Nava/Victorino is not something I ever want to see aside from the rare occasion.
So - the Chavez plan to me is a GIANT leap of faith in Jackie Bradley - is this warranted? (I'm not sure I'm for or against this - it just makes me feel uneasy)
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Post by bgeer091 on Nov 9, 2013 20:13:41 GMT -5
Well if this is my adventure I'd like our off season to go like this.
Trades
Buchholz, Cecchini, Lavarnway, Rubby, and Diaz to ATL for Minor and Kimbrel
Nava, Betts and Barnes to CHC for Rizzo
Peavey to PIT for Austin Meadows
Signings
McCann 4 years 65 mil option for 5th Beltran 3 years 36 mil option for 4th
Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury leave.
Line up
RF Victorino 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Beltran C McCann SS Bogaerts 1B Rizzo 3B Middlebrooks CF Bradley Jr
Bench Ross Gomes Carp Holt
Starting Staff
Lester Lackey Minor Doubront Webster
Bullpen
C. Kimbrel
SU Koji SU Miller
Taz Breslow Workman Britton Martin Dempster
We'd be selling high on our players and buying low on some others. I think for the present and the future we'd have a good shot at winning championships.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 9, 2013 21:38:32 GMT -5
Well if this is my adventure I'd like our off season to go like this. Trades Buchholz, Cecchini, Lavarnway, Rubby, and Diaz to ATL for Minor and Kimbrel Nava, Betts and Barnes to CHC for Rizzo Peavey to PIT for Austin Meadows Signings McCann 4 years 65 mil option for 5th Beltran 3 years 36 mil option for 4th Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury leave. Line up RF Victorino 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Beltran C McCann SS Bogaerts 1B Rizzo 3B Middlebrooks CF Bradley Jr Bench Ross Gomes Carp Holt Starting Staff Lester Lackey Minor Doubront Webster Bullpen C. Kimbrel SU Koji SU Miller Taz Breslow Workman Britton Martin Dempster We'd be selling high on our players and buying low on some others. I think for the present and the future we'd have a good shot at winning championships. Those three trades are all pretty ridiculous. Even if Meadows could be traded, which he can't, no way Pitt does that. Also, closer is one of the least of our worries right now why do we need Kimbrel?
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Post by mantush on Nov 9, 2013 22:37:26 GMT -5
What would I do if I were GM of the Red Sox? Oh man, too bad MLB The Show isn't real life.
Let's see...
SIGNINGS
Jacoby Ellsbury - 6 years, 21 million avg Corey Hart - 2 years, 7 million avg
Split deals to Hanrahan & Bailey - better for them to rehab here.
TRADES
David Price for Bradley, Ranaudo, and Webster Ryan Dempster + cash for prospects Felix Doubront for Hanigan (unsure of the Reds motivation here - maybe they want to trade Cueto or Bailey?)
Lineup
LF Nava/Gomes CF Ellsbury RF Victorino 3B WMB SS Bogaerts 2B Pedroia 1B Carp/Hart C Hanigan DH Papi
BENCH
Ross Holt Gomes/Nava Hart/Carp
ROTATION
Price Lester Buchholz Lackey Peavy
BULLPEN
CL Uehara
SU Tazawa SU Breslow
MR Workman MR Miller MR Britton MR Villarreal
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 9, 2013 22:43:30 GMT -5
Well if this is my adventure I'd like our off season to go like this. Trades Buchholz, Cecchini, Lavarnway, Rubby, and Diaz to ATL for Minor and Kimbrel Nava, Betts and Barnes to CHC for Rizzo Peavey to PIT for Austin Meadows Signings McCann 4 years 65 mil option for 5th Beltran 3 years 36 mil option for 4th Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury leave. Line up RF Victorino 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Beltran C McCann SS Bogaerts 1B Rizzo 3B Middlebrooks CF Bradley Jr Bench Ross Gomes Carp Holt Starting Staff Lester Lackey Minor Doubront Webster Bullpen C. Kimbrel SU Koji SU Miller Taz Breslow Workman Britton Martin Dempster We'd be selling high on our players and buying low on some others. I think for the present and the future we'd have a good shot at winning championships. Wow. Koji had arguably the greatest season a closer has ever had and you have him being demoted? Why do the Pirates want to trade their top draft pick who's not even eligible to be dealt for a guy who makes a ton of money and has seen his best days? Why do the Sox need Minor and Kimbrel again? And why is Theo dealing Rizzo, a young cost controlled power hitter? And why would the Sox want 36 year old Beltran for 3 years? Possibly 4? The Red Sox won the World Series, so whatever they did seemed to be working. I certainly wouldn't have done most of what Cherington did last offseason, but you cannot argue with the results. Honestly, there's not a ton of work for the Red Sox to do this offseason. Bradley slots in at CF. The Sox should pick up a veteran guy who can fill in if Bradley struggles. Maybe a Rajai Davis with his speed could help and be a good bench guy if that's what he's willing to sign for. The Sox bullpen depth is an area of need. There are many decent candidates. None that really stick out more than the rest. Perhaps Jesse Crain? They don't need to spend closer money, that's for sure. The Sox have interest in Tim Hudson. While I'd very much prefer Tanaka, I'd think Hudson is an upgrade as a 5/6 starter over Dempster who can be partially subsidized and dealt for a grade B prospect. I'd be cool with Hudson. They need to re-sign Napoli since Abreu is no longer an option. There aren't too many appealing 1b options otherwise. Otherwise you give Carp his shot and get a veteran RH hitting 1b to platoon with him. Konerko perhaps, although I think he's washed up. Get a good backup middle infielder who can spell Pedroia, Bogaerts, and Middlebrooks and step in if WMB has another massive slump. Not sure who fits the bill there. These are all minor tweaks. No need to do any major massive uphauling. The Sox are in good shape as is. Deepen the depth and buy the kids like Webster, Ranaudo, Barnes, Cecchini, De La Rosa, and Owens another year of development and let them knock down the door to Boston instead of having to be brought up out of desperation.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 9, 2013 22:51:53 GMT -5
This thread is becoming - well, has become, unbearable and obnoxious. Sorry.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2013 23:12:19 GMT -5
Jmei, why do you consider Aramis less of a risk then Napoli? (1) Napoli's declining contact numbers terrify me. Three years in a row, he's made less contact with pitches both out of the zone (65.9% -> 62.7% -> 59.9%) and in the zone (78.7% -> 74.7% -> 72.4%). That contact rate on pitches in the zone was the lowest in the league last year by a significant margin. This kind of player often just totally collapses once his contact issues reach critical mass-- see, e.g., Mark Reynolds, Richie Sexson, Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard, etc. (2) BABIP regression. .367 in 2013, not going to be repeated. If he hits .240 instead of .260, the rest of his line starts looking a lot worse. Steamer projects him to hit .245/.347/.460 (119 wRC+) next year, which is not much above league-average for a first baseman (the average first baseman in the AL hit for a 113 wRC+). (3) Expected contract. MLBTR expects three years, $42m. Fangraphs Crowdsourcing expects three years, $40m. That's a lot of money for a player with both serious performance and injury red flags. EDIT: I don't think re-signing Napoli on that sort of contract is the worst idea in the world. He only needs to rack up something around 7.5 wins to be worth that contract, and his surprising defense means that there's a decent change he makes it if he doesn't collapse. But the chances of a catastrophic collapse (whether due to performance or injury) are just much too high for me. If Ramirez isn't available and the Red Sox find themselves with extra payroll space (i.e., they don't sign Ellsbury or McCann or any other premium free agent), I'd happy to just re-sign Napoli and pray. But Ramirez represents a lower-risk scenario, and one with upside to boot (for instance, Ramirez is the kind of dead-pull hitter who might mash at Fenway). Here, I believe, is the complete list of "this kind of player": Mike Napoli. There's no one in the pitch/fx era that has his combination of low Z-Contact, low Z-Swing, and surprisingly high O-Contact. In fact, there aren't too many players that have one of those two additional attributes. The best comp for Napoli's combo of very low Z-Contact and relatively high O-Contact was Mark Reynolds ... in his rookie year. He had a monster year two years later. The next best comp is Nelson Cruz, 2009, and he had a great 2010. However, both of these guys swung at a lot more pitches in the zone. The only guy who has had Napoli's combo of low Z-Contact and low Z-Swing is Jack Cust -- but he had terrible O-Contact, too (as did Mark Reynolds by 2010-2011). The percentage of players showing three-year declining trends is ... 25%. I would think that for a given player, Z-Contact and O-Contact would tend to move together, so I'm not sure that tells us anything extra. And your narrative about guys collapsing when their contact rate falls below a certain threshold doesn't appear to be true. Pena's Z-Contact in his off years of 2010, 2012, and 2013 is higher than in his 2007-9 glory days in Tampa. Reynolds followed the second-worst Z-Contact year in the pitch/fx era (adjusted for Zone % and Z-Swing, both of which correlate) with the best season of his career. Ryan Howard wasn't showing any declining trend before his collapse year of 2012, where his Z-Contact went up. And the central guiding principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself." Swings and misses have always been the price good hitters pay for hitting the ball hard. You want to look for guys poised for a collapse, I think you'd do better looking at guys with declining hardness of contact rates. In Napoli's case, his HR/Contact (.074) was down to his lowest rate since 2009, but his XBH/Hits in play was an insane .377 (previous best .305). Well, that's Fenway, so let's look at XBH/Contact, and he's at .202, topping his .192 from two years ago. Extra base hits are pretty much the result of hitting the ball hard, not luck. What's left over? Singles and outs in play. That percentage (1B / (1B + OIP) for him correlates very strongly with his XBH/Contact (p = .095 in just 8 years), and that regression predicts a singles rate of .262. His actual rate was .265. There's no evidence of luck here, just hitting the crap out of the ball. The obsessive fear of BABIP regression really needs to be examined a bit more thoughtfully. You can have the guy with the eminently sustainable slightly better than average BABIP, and I'll take the guy with the absurdly high unsustainable one, because once my guy regresses he'll still be better than your guy. Sometimes a high BABIP regresses because it was luck-driven, but mostly it regresses to the mean because everything regresses to the mean. So why are we exempting Napoli's career high K rate from that rule?
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Post by mainesox on Nov 9, 2013 23:31:27 GMT -5
I'll give it a go:
Trade Dempster, and Gomes to whoever will take them, for whatever they will give me, as long as they take their salaries. Trade Carp for minor leaguers. Sign Shin-Soo Choo for 6/96. Sign Carlos Ruiz to a 2/14 contract. Sign Juan Uribe to a 2/16 contract. Sign Corey Hart for 1/10. Sign Jerry Hairston Jr to a 2/6 deal. Sign Ryan Madson for 1/3. Sign Jesse Crain for 1/3.5.
Using the $32M available payroll that Speier projects, plus the $13.25M from trading Dempster, $5M from trading Gomes, and the ~$.5M from trading Carp, the Sox would have roughly $50.75M to spend, and Choo, Ruiz, Uribe, Hart, Hairston, Madson, and Crain would add $50.5M.
Lineup: Victorino (RF) Pedroia (2B) Choo (LF) Ortiz (DH) Hart (1B) Bogaerts (SS) Uribe (3B) Ruiz (C) Bradley (CF) – Bradley would hopefully take over leading off at some point, with Victorino sliding down to 7th and pushing Uribe and Ruiz down.
Rotation: Buchholz Lester Lackey Peavy Doubront
Bullpen: Uehara Tazawa Miller Breslow Madson Crain Workman
Bench: Nava Hairston Jr. Ross Middlebrooks (or Holt if you can find a reasonable trade for Will, so he can start somewhere)
A couple of Plan B's: if Ruiz ends up staying in Philly I try to swing a trade for Hanigan, and if Uribe stays in LAD I re-sign Drew for 3/36-4/44 and pass on either Crain or Madson, and use Britton instead.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 10, 2013 0:11:20 GMT -5
Rather than speculate on trades which may or may not be realistic, and factoring the real salary limitations the team has ( They are not going over the luxury tax limit this year guys ), I think we really need to think about getting the most value from our off season spend. What results in the most wins?
Given: $30 mil in available resources roughly against the luxury tax limit
Option A: Make a $52 mil bid for negotiating rights to Tanaka. If he accepts keep it under $60 mil for at most for 5-6 years. If it's really the top 3 bids having an equal shot at Tanaka make it a $42 mil negotiating bid.
I go with this first to see if it works. The guy was 17 - 0 last year if I remember correctly with an ungodly low ERA and he's 25. He sure appears to be decent from the numbers and since no one has seen him in mlb he probably at least starts well in mlb and we are in win now mode. He appears to be Koji or Kuroda with better stuff! And a starter. Teams pay a fortune for talent like that and he needs to be target A on this team. It's like acquiring the rights to the next Felix Hernandez potentially. You know what, he might just be incredibly good and in his prime. He costs no picks and much of the money doesn't count against the luxury tax limit, no small consideration. Of course he is Option A. Sometimes you just have to roll the dice if you want to win. It may fail but the potential upside is so great that it is worth this risk.
If that falls through and we lose out on that opportunity go to:
Option B; Make Kuroda think seriously about joining a World Championship team with Koji and Junichi by offering him $20 mil to join the Sox. We may not get him either but if the Yanks do at least they will have to pay big bucks for him. The Yanks only paid $15 mil last year. Why wouldn't Kuroda consider $20 mil this year, to join a championship level team? My bet is that he wants that kind of cash still. And he joins a world championship team with international success and popular Japanese players already. It's not crazy to think that $20 mil might get that done. And he is possibly one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Consistently great numbers for the last 4 years in a row in the AL east, in a park not suited for his game. If anything, he should be even better in Fenway. I recognize he is 39 but he has been consistently solid every year.
If either of these two options take place, and preferably Tanaka's since it's $10 mil less against the luxury tax limit, we trade Peavy who actually costs more than Tanaka against the luxury limit probably. Even Kuroda would essentially only cost us $4-$5 mil or so against the $30 mil we have to spend to keep us under the luxury tax limit. We want those revenue sharing dollars badly. It's important that we stay under the luxury tax limit and we probably even get some talent back in the Peavy trade.
Hopefully Napoli declines soon and we pass on his option but use that money for a 2 year deal with Beltran. He's better Papi protection than Napoli by a significant margin. Much better numbers. Helps bolster our OF with the loss of Ellsbury. Make him our primary LF option. Move Nava to 1st, with Carp and Ortiz as backup. I think that is fine at 1st. We can probably sign Youk as deep backup for 3rd and 1st for $3-$5 mil.
Sign Rajai Davis as our 5th OF. So the OF would be Beltran, JBJ, Victorino with RH subs of Davis and Gomes. I think Davis costs $5 mil per year but he is the best available pinch runner we can get for late inning opportunities when we need a stolen base. That alone gets us 2-3 wins a year and he's a decent hitting sub also. I think this keeps us under the luxury tax limit and maximizes our team's opportunity for success.
Rotation:
Lester Lackey Kuroda/Tanaka ( adding no more than $4-5 mil against the luxury tax limit if we sign Kuroda and trade Peavy. We gain money against the luxury tax limit if we sign Tanaka ) Doubront Buchholz
Possibly the best rotation in baseball.
Lineup:
Victorino Pedroia Ortiz Beltran/Gomes ($14 mil per year for Beltran, less per year if 3 year deal ) Bogaerts Nava/Carp/Youk ($3 - $5 mil per year as backup) Middlebrooks/Youk Ross/Lavarnway/Ruiz (If we can do Tanaka and trade Peavy, we then can sign a catcher like Ruiz for up to $8 mil per year and still have $3-$5 mil left over for contingencies ) JBJ/Rajai Davis ( $5 mil )
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Post by pedroelgrande on Nov 10, 2013 0:19:29 GMT -5
This thread is becoming - well, has become, unbearable and obnoxious. Sorry. At first I thought it had some potential but then it just became a version of the trade sub forum.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 1:47:34 GMT -5
Here, I believe, is the complete list of "this kind of player": Mike Napoli. There's no one in the pitch/fx era that has his combination of low Z-Contact, low Z-Swing, and surprisingly high O-Contact. In fact, there aren't too many players that have one of those two additional attributes. The best comp for Napoli's combo of very low Z-Contact and relatively high O-Contact was Mark Reynolds ... in his rookie year. He had a monster year two years later. The next best comp is Nelson Cruz, 2009, and he had a great 2010. However, both of these guys swung at a lot more pitches in the zone. The only guy who has had Napoli's combo of low Z-Contact and low Z-Swing is Jack Cust -- but he had terrible O-Contact, too (as did Mark Reynolds by 2010-2011). The percentage of players showing three-year declining trends is ... 25%. I would think that for a given player, Z-Contact and O-Contact would tend to move together, so I'm not sure that tells us anything extra. And your narrative about guys collapsing when their contact rate falls below a certain threshold doesn't appear to be true. Pena's Z-Contact in his off years of 2010, 2012, and 2013 is higher than in his 2007-9 glory days in Tampa. Reynolds followed the second-worst Z-Contact year in the pitch/fx era (adjusted for Zone % and Z-Swing, both of which correlate) with the best season of his career. Ryan Howard wasn't showing any declining trend before his collapse year of 2012, where his Z-Contact went up. And the central guiding principle of Buddhism is not "every man for himself." Swings and misses have always been the price good hitters pay for hitting the ball hard. You want to look for guys poised for a collapse, I think you'd do better looking at guys with declining hardness of contact rates. In Napoli's case, his HR/Contact (.074) was down to his lowest rate since 2009, but his XBH/Hits in play was an insane .377 (previous best .305). Well, that's Fenway, so let's look at XBH/Contact, and he's at .202, topping his .192 from two years ago. Extra base hits are pretty much the result of hitting the ball hard, not luck. What's left over? Singles and outs in play. That percentage (1B / (1B + OIP) for him correlates very strongly with his XBH/Contact (p = .095 in just 8 years), and that regression predicts a singles rate of .262. His actual rate was .265. There's no evidence of luck here, just hitting the crap out of the ball. The obsessive fear of BABIP regression really needs to be examined a bit more thoughtfully. You can have the guy with the eminently sustainable slightly better than average BABIP, and I'll take the guy with the absurdly high unsustainable one, because once my guy regresses he'll still be better than your guy. Sometimes a high BABIP regresses because it was luck-driven, but mostly it regresses to the mean because everything regresses to the mean. So why are we exempting Napoli's career high K rate from that rule? Interesting stuff-- thanks for doing the legwork. To clarify, when I say that hitters of that profile collapse, I don't mean to imply it's because their Z-contact collapses. I mean to say that they just strike out too much for the power and patience to offset it anymore. It's tough to find a hitter who strikes out 30%+ of the time who doesn't decline precipitously once he enters his 30s (to be fair, most hitters decline precipitously once they enter their 30s, but my intuition is that these guys fall harder than most). I didn't have the time to do a thorough survey, but here's a quick look at guys who struck out at least 28% of the time in a single season: 2008: Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Ryan Howard, Mike Cameron 2009: Mark Reynolds, Jack Cust, Russell Branyan, Carlos Pena 2010: Mark Reynolds, Adam Dunn, Drew Stubbs, Adam LaRoche 2011: Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs I mean, can I rest my case? All these guys had at least one 2.5+ win season despite a ton of Ks, but all except for Stubbs (who only skates by because he's a good defensive center fielder) have also had negative fWAR seasons since. That's my fear with Napoli, even if he makes contact with balls outside the strike zone better than most (and, by the way, declining O-Contact is a good quick and dirty measure of declining bat speed, so Napoli has that going for him, I guess). Re: BABIP regression I post this link every time we have this argument. Stuff like XBH/hit just don't correlate well year-to-year for the vast majority of players, even though it intuitively feels like it should. I regress the less stable statistics a lot (BABIP, non-HR XBH), and the more stable statistics (contact rate, strikeout rate) less. Unfortunately, that makes re-signing Napoli look like a losing proposition. I'm willing to chalk our broader disagreements up to a philosophical difference, but you gotta admit, from my perspective, it don't look good for Nap.
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Post by jmei on Nov 10, 2013 1:48:54 GMT -5
This thread is becoming - well, has become, unbearable and obnoxious. Sorry. At first I thought it had some potential but then it just became a version of the trade sub forum. My advice? Ignore the bad and outlandish posts, focus on the creative and realistic ones. There's a lot of noise, but some good ideas hidden in there.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 2:05:01 GMT -5
How about a different approach. With Ellsbury, Choo and Beltran being most peoples top 3 OFers who could draw interest from several teams why not be quick to go to one of the next best guys. Add Granderson who should come on a shorter 3 year deal and less AAV perhaps with a partial incentive base salary. He can handle LF full time, slide to CF if JBJr struggles, fill into RF if Victorino gets injured. He provides a power source and is a candidate for a bounce back. Even with reduced power I believe he could be a great value and raise his OBP under Boston's hitting philosophy and reduce his K rate back towards his mean. Adds some speed also. 1. (S) Victorino RF 2. (R) Pedroia 2B 3. (L) Ortiz DH 4. (R) Ramirez 1B (Backup 3B) 5. (L) Granderson LF (Backup CF/RF) 6. (R) Bogaerts SS 7. (R) Middlebrooks 3B 8. (R) Ruiz C 9. (L) Bradley Jr CF I had posted this as part of my previous entry. Didn't see any responses. I was wondering how everyone felt about Granderson in general. Do you like the player? The fit? Don't love losing our draft pick but not worried about the MFYs getting one for it because they'll get one anyone when inevitably someone else would sign him. (Side note: I actually think Seattle would benefit going all in and signing both Ellsbury and Granderson to rejuvenate their offense)
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Post by taftreign on Nov 10, 2013 2:59:59 GMT -5
This post started in my head with the idea of Dempster and a few mil for Hochevar trade with KC but I started thinking that KC and Boston could match up fairly well on a larger trade mostly for the idea that the Royals would love to add to their pitching depth, particularly any young affordable arms. This is a mix of ideas so bear with it as I haven't put the exact pieces together in my head. But it lead me to ask a few questions.
First, can Billy Butler play a passable first base on a regular basis at least for a season or two? KC has mentioned his availability. He is quite affordable. Second, KC is in win now mode so would they deal a piece like Jorge Bonafacio OF who is still 2 to 3 years away from contributing. I believe the teams had a few conversations last year when discussing a potential Lester for Myers deal so have some familiarity with each other. But I wonder if there's a deal somewhere in the generalities of Peavy, Ranaudo, and Brentz for Butler, Hochevar and J. Bonafacio. Perhaps not perfectly balanced in value but a starting thought point. Peavy's 2014 AAV salary is 16.5 mil towards the cap. Butler and Hochevar would be somewhere around 13 mil. Would KC add 3.5 mil to the payroll to add a pitcher they would control for 2 seasons plus an arm that could fill in to the back of the rotation as soon as late this season and a power bat that could take some at bats in the DH spot in place of Butler. Sox would save a few bucks, add a short term answer at first at a cheaper rate than anything on the market, a solid bull pen arm who's finally found his home, and a young upside OF with future power which the system lacks at almost all levels. Maybe KC argues for Workman over Ranaudo here. Who knows but the concept seems to work. Under this scenario I would like to see the team be aggressive on the Tanaka front to fill the rotation loss. Essentially using zero payroll to add a bullpen arm and the hole at first. Butler would slide nicely into the lineup as a hitter after Ortiz. The team could then still add either McCann at C and a cheap OFer like Young or Ruiz at C and a higher level OF like resigning Ellsbury or adding Granderson.
This becomes an alternative to Milwaukee desiring to keep Ramirez :
1. Victorino RF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Ortiz DH 4. Butler 1B 5. Granderson LF 6. Bogaerts SS 7. Middlebrooks 3B 8. Ruiz C 9. Bradley Jr CF
or
1. Victorino RF 2. Pedroia 2B 3. Ortiz DH 4. Butler 1B 5. McCann C 6. Bogaerts SS 7. Middlebrooks 3B 8. Nava / Gomes LF 9. Bradley Jr CF
with
1. Lester 2. Lackey 3. Buchholz 4. Tanaka 5. Doubront
followed by
1. Uehara 2. Tazawa 3. Breslow 4. Miller 5. Hochevar 6. Workman (Trade possibility) 7. Britton 8. Crain (if enough money available)
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Post by stabbin31 on Nov 10, 2013 4:30:57 GMT -5
Hello, first post in a few years, but read SP almost everyday.
Looks like a lot of good ideas. If I was in the big chair, I would take a look at a few things.
1) Bring back Napoli. His bat has some holes, but his defense is good and what he brings to the clubhouse cannot be measured. We here are very stats driven and forget the human side of the game. 1.1) Sure Carp may come back down to earth, but we don't really know what we have there. Can play 1B/DH/OF, not bad for 1 guy right? and again, fits in with the team.
2) Xman is our SS until he proves he cannot play SS anymore, then he becomes our 3B. 2.1) Offer Drew the QO and let him walk. WIN WIN
3) Ells, try to bring him back, at worst offer him the QO and again we still win. Again JBJ job until he proves he is not up to the task. 3.1) C Young is a good idea, not one I thought of, but I like it. Not sure he is interested in a bench role, but hey worth a shot and a solid play if JBJ falls flat. 3.2) JBJ gets the job, we keep Q. Berry as a very good bench OF and a PR specialist. Can play some CF and could take some of the pressure off JBJ and doesn't cost us anything.
4) Lavarnway/Ross catching tandem. Why the hell not, maybe a 60/40 platoon. As many people have posted, McCann is not what we think he is, and not worth the money. Again we stay within the system. 4.1) Salty, I fell in love with the guy during the year, and I know the staff loves him. Give him a decent offer, and if he walks, he walks. I would like to keep him, but I think we have options. Ruiz makes some sense and I don't hate the Hanigan idea.
5) 3B is WMB job to lose, maybe he comes around, maybe he doesn't, and if its the latter, then we make a move. No need to panic or rush to sell him off yet. I hope he comes around, and I think he is our 1B of the future, when GC is ready and Napoli becomes our DH.
7) Like the SP staff, like the depth. Let spring training and maybe a month in season sort them out. I would not be crushed to see Dempster moved, but don't think it has to be done. Good guy, fills a role, does not kill us. Lester, Buch, Lackey, Dubront, Dempster/Peavy. Sounds pretty good to me. We all know we have some depth in AAA, not worried here. 7.1) Bullpen is the bullpen. Koji will anchor, Workman, Bres, Miller, Taz are nice. Wilson, Britton, Morales and Joe Bag of baseballs are your filler.
I am one who does not think we need to go out and get a BIG BAT, seems to me that way of thinking got us in a little jam a while back. Small changes, upgrades or tweeks is what we need. Not knee jerk big plays.
Thoughts?
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Post by nexus on Nov 10, 2013 6:25:32 GMT -5
Using the $32M available payroll that Speier projects, plus the $13.25M from trading Dempster, $5M from trading Gomes, and the ~$.5M from trading Carp, the Sox would have roughly $50.75M to spend, and Choo, Ruiz, Uribe, Hart, Hairston, Madson, and Crain would add $50.5M. While your ideas are logical and probably more feasible than other suggestions, you have left the FO no room to add/make adjustments during the season. My guess is opening day payroll will be closer to $180M - $183M. On a separate note, I didn't realize Peavy's previous $4M buyout was baked into his current deal (pushing the AAV up to $16.5M v. $14.5M). That hurts. I really hope he's the odd man out.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 10, 2013 6:37:21 GMT -5
Yeah, we need to trade one of Peavy and Dempster, if not both, to free up some much needed cash.
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Post by mainesox on Nov 10, 2013 6:47:16 GMT -5
While your ideas are logical and probably more feasible than other suggestions, you have left the FO no room to add/make adjustments during the season. My guess is opening day payroll will be closer to $180M - $183M. That's actually why I used Speier's figure, he's already figured in about $10M for injury replacements and midseason acquisitions, so my payroll would be at about $179-180M.
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Post by nexus on Nov 10, 2013 7:01:29 GMT -5
While your ideas are logical and probably more feasible than other suggestions, you have left the FO no room to add/make adjustments during the season. My guess is opening day payroll will be closer to $180M - $183M. That's actually why I used Speier's figure, he's already figured in about $10M for injury replacements and midseason acquisitions, so my payroll would be at about $179-180M. You're right. Good stuff.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 10, 2013 7:45:26 GMT -5
My crack at it. Not necessarily what I hope will happen but an attempt at creating a realistic plan
Trades:
Trade Ryan Dempster and Mike Carp to SF Giants for Gary Brown (OF) and Heath Hembree (P). Red Sox eat 4M of Dempster's contract.
Signings:
Sign Brian McCann (5 yr/85M) Sign Mike Napoli (3 yr/39M) Sign Joe Smith (2 yr/9M) Sign Franklin Gutierrez (1 yr/4M) Sign Brendan Ryan (1 yr/2M)
C: McCann 1B: Napoli 2B: Pedroia 3B: Middlebrooks SS: Bogaerts LF: Nava/Gomes CF: Bradley Jr. RF: Victorino
Bench: C: Ross INF: Ryan OF: Nava/Gomes OF: Gutierrez
Rotation:
Lester Lackey Buchholz Peavy Doubront (Workman)
Bullpen
Uehara Tazawa Breslow Smith Workman Miller Britton
Explanations:
The trade with SF gives the Giants a much needed bat. They can move Belt to LF to create a more offense minded line up. It also gives them Dempster who probably thrives in that big park. It gives us some much needed salary relief in combination with some depth for AAA. I think we'll end up signing Napoli. Not that I think it's the best option, but it seems inevitable. McCann will give us some oomph from the catchers position and he's a pretty reliable catcher. Smith has been a dependable reliever the last couple of seasons. Ryan and Gutierrez can be useful role players IMO.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 10, 2013 8:20:01 GMT -5
Well, Ramirez only counts $12m against the luxury tax this year (because that's calculated with AAV), and he only gets his $4m buyout in 2015 if he exercises his side of the mutual option and the Red Sox decline theirs (which will only happen if he plays really poorly in 2014). Ramirez actually gets paid $16m in 2014, but $6m of that is deferred, so it doesn't even actually hit John Henry's pocketbook that hard. For $12m against the luxury tax, Ramirez is much less risky (and probably cheaper) than Napoli and just flat out better than any of the other free agent options, so I'm willing to give up value to acquire him. For me, the bigger question is whether Milwaukee is motivated to trade him at all. They have some other good position player pieces (Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, Segura), but their pitching (both starting and relieving) is awful-- the rotation is headlined by a diminished Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse, and their pen ranked 25th by fWAR in 2013. Their front office is probably inclined to grab a few cheap arms and keep Ramirez to try and compete next year, so the Red Sox will need to offer more than just a salary dump for them to bite. Pieces they may want and that I might be inclined to relinquish include Mike Carp or one of our young pitchers (I would strongly consider Workman or Ranaudo). I was actually about to post that Ramirez wasn't worth the hit, but I didn't know that … I had only heard the "20 million" number thrown around. I normally stay away completely from trade proposals, but a trade that may make a lot of sense is Peavy for Ramirez, plus whatever parts either team (probably the Sox) needs to feel good about it. It's a bit of a salary dump on the Sox part since I think Peavy's better than Ramirez, but they'd save about $4million on this year's cap on that swap, plus they wouldn't have to pay Napoli (assuming he declines in this scenario). If they did that, they could afford, say, Ellsbury and still have room for some other big piece (Tanaka?). With the salary considerations, you're essentially swapping out Peavy/Napoli for Ramirez/Ellsbury, plus saving a slot for Tanaka (hypothetically speaking) or McCann or whatever. I'd be happier if the Sox got another piece in that (serviceable bullpen arm, solid prospect value, whatever), but I'm not hung up on the details of that … So, make that trade, resign Ellsbury, sign Tanaka, get a cheap-ish catcher, sign a couple decent bullpen arms and a utility IF, hit the beach until pitchers&catchers in February. You're somewhat protected if WMB doesn't cut it and build the bridge to Cecchini, balance out the roster this year, avoid long-term contracts in areas you don't need them … and it balances out the Brewers a little bit, too, makes them more competitive next year.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 10, 2013 8:43:13 GMT -5
A few thoughts:
Catcher: I'm really torn on this. I know I don't want McCann for five years and I'm not sure I'd want to give him four. I'd be willing to give him a slightly higher AAV for three plus an option, but I'm not sure he'd consider that. He'll only be 30 next year, but I'm concerned the miles on his knees will be a major issue on a longer term deal. Salty makes a lot of sense at 2/22 or 3/30, but I wouldn't go more than that. He is a major regression candidate, but should still be a 2 WAR player even after the regression. If the bidding for these two is anything beyond this, I would go hard after Ruiz on a two year deal. If that doesn't work, I'd fall back to Hannigan or Navarro (Hannigan wouldn't take anything close to Doubront to acquire IMO).
First base: If Napoli accept the qualifying offer then we're covered. If not I let him walk. I'm not sure if it will be 2014 or 2015, but Napoli's performance is going to fall off a cliff one of these years and I don't want to gamble with that on a multi-year deal. I like the idea of a Carp/Hart semi-platoon (with Hart getting some of the ABs against righties). I think it is possible to bring in Hart on a one-year incentive laden deal.
Second base: Pedroia.
Shortstop/Third base: I sign Drew. I think a three year deal at less than the qualifying offer ($11M per?) gets it done. While I would love to see Xander at shortstop for the next decade, I feel much more confident with a Xander/Drew left side than a Xander/Middlebrooks left side. I'm just not a Will Middlebrooks believer. I would consider all options for WMB - bench/trade/etc.
Left: I'd stick with the Nava/Gomes platoon.
Right: Victorino.
Center: At 5/$100 I bring back Ellsbury. Anything more than that I move on to JBJ. I think he'll get more and sign elsewhere.
Starters: Buchholz, Lester, Lackey, and Doubront should be the top four. Depending on the return, I'd look to move one of Peavy/Dempster. I think Workman/Wright/Webster etc give us plenty of depth and there isn't a big need to have both of those guys.
Bullpen: Not a ton to do here. Bring in a guy like Mujica or Veras and call it a day.
Lineup (vs. Righties) RF Victorino LF Nava 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz 3B Xander 1B Carp/Hart SS Drew C Ruiz CF Bradley Jr.
Lineup (vs. Lefties) RF Victorino 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz LF Gomes 3B Xander 1B Hart SS Drew C Ruiz CF Bradley Jr.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 10, 2013 9:50:53 GMT -5
Re: BABIP regression I post this link every time we have this argument. Stuff like XBH/hit just don't correlate well year-to-year for the vast majority of players, even though it intuitively feels like it should. I regress the less stable statistics a lot (BABIP, non-HR XBH), and the more stable statistics (contact rate, strikeout rate) less. Unfortunately, that makes re-signing Napoli look like a losing proposition. I'm willing to chalk our broader disagreements up to a philosophical difference, but you gotta admit, from my perspective, it don't look good for Nap. Napoli's XBH/Hit skyrocketed to insane heights because he started playing half his games in the ballpark with the highest park factor for it, one which he furthermore was ideally suited to exploit. Players who changed parks were properly excluded from Klaassen's study for that very reason. It's also a tremendous park for BABIP in general, of course, but I think I've demonstrated that Napoli's rise in BABIP was almost entirely driven by the rise in 2B and 3B -- which was largely true for the whole team. I know I posted that analysis recently. Because the metrics you fear will regress massively have a ton of legitimate park-factor inflation which can be counted on to be predictive, I don't think the picture is quite as bleak as you think. However, your point that K rate regresses less than any other stat is a terrific rebuttal to my final question (it was rhetorical, I swear!). I actually don't think we're that far apart on him. I do think your fear of collapse is probably unfounded. First, the sample size of guys with K rates that high is so small that it's hard to draw a conclusion from it, and we have plenty of reason to believe that Napoli is a unique hitter (including his amazing numbers against elite pitchers the second and third times around the batting order). Also, K rates in the last six years have risen sharply relative to hardness of contact. The seemingly eternal escalation of K rates has largely been driven by hitters swinging harder; I have a tremendous regression model that actually seems to be able to isolate the contribution of better pitching to that increase. From 1980 to 2007, it was .0012 (or 0.12%) per year. Since then, it's .0041. When you factor that in, his K rates are probably a bit less terrifying, especially if the standard deviation of K rates for hitters has risen as well. (I actually plan to publish this study! My general problem is that I can almost always think of labor-intensive methodological tweaks to any study I do, so I regard them as preliminary, put them aside, and sometimes even forget about them.) But I basically agree with you that he projects to be a somewhat better than average 1B for a couple of more years. I want him back largely because, if that's the kind of guy you're settling for, his strengths (defense and hitting elite pitching) are completely those that play up in the post-season, where we can reasonably expect to be most years. I've really wanted him back for the remaining 2/$26 that we had second thoughts about and nullified. I know that's probably unrealistic now, but I'm hoping that his "testing the market" is posturing designed to get a somewhat better contract with the team he really wants to play for. 2/$28 plus a vesting option for a third season based on PA might make a lot of sense.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 10, 2013 10:21:06 GMT -5
It's a little late now, but this thread should have a no trade rule.....only construct a roster based on free agency/call-ups. There have been some posters who have basically suggested trading half of our 2013 World Series team as well as the entire farm system which should be a unanimous top 5 system this year, and probably #1 in some circles. Seriously?
But yes, I know its possible to ignore these posts and I will do so now.
I maintain my fascination with Konerko as a nice Plan B should Napoli walk.
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