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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 13:20:46 GMT -5
TradeAcquire 1B/3B Aramis Ramirez from MIL for RF Bryce Brentz and SP Justin Haley I'd alter this a bit to make it A Ram + cash ($2m??) for Brentz and Alex Wilson. Frees another 40-man spot, and the better arm balances out the cash infusion which will help us to sign a veteran reliever. The cash would be nice, but a major part of the appeal for MIL doing this trade would be the salary relief, where as it's not as big a deal for us. With A-Ram, they have about $76m in 2014 payroll obligations, so freeing up a huge chunk of that + acquiring even B-level talent would give them some nice payroll flexibility. Still, there's a reason everyone on here loves throwing Alex Wilson into trade proposals - I think the Brewers aim a tad higher than that, which they should. If we want MIL to chip in some $$$, Wilson and Brentz are unlikely to fetch any, or even get the trade done at all.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 9, 2013 14:03:47 GMT -5
I've got to say that I also love the A-Ram idea. Can we get the front office on the phone and put this on their radar?
One name I'm not seeing as a potential 1 yr option for 1B is Paul Konerko. He had a poor....actually very poor year last year although his K rate was similar to years past, and his LD rate was even higher. Despite that his BABIP was only .265 after having been over .300 the past three years. Can anyone make sense of that? I'm sure there is more to the story. Still, he's only 1 year removed from an .857 OPS. Also, he's a Providence native and may feel rejuvenated to play in Boston for a year.
I prefer A-Ram and even Napoli, but I think Konerko is worth talking to if those options don't pan out.
Lastly, Joe Smith looks like a nice reliable reliever who could fit on our team well without being too expensive.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Nov 9, 2013 14:12:29 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Nov 9, 2013 14:18:05 GMT -5
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 14:19:40 GMT -5
That's if MIL really decides they're going to compete in 2014. Considering the major holes on their team and the boatload of competition in the division, the Brew Crew going for it in 2014 seems pretty foolish. I think they should (and are expected to) make a strong play at re-signing Hart.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 9, 2013 14:51:25 GMT -5
How about this:
Dempster + Workman + Carp/Brentz for Ramirez. Gives the Brew Crew good starting pitching depth plus a OF/1B man. Pair Carp with Davis at 1B and that would be a pretty solid platoon.
Red Sox only spend 2.5mil net (not counting the option) on a 1B and the Brewers fill a couple of holes which would have been more expensive on the open market.
After looking through the Brewers roster it was apparent that they had more young talent than I had originally thought...
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Post by chavopepe2 on Nov 9, 2013 14:54:59 GMT -5
I like the idea of trading for Ramirez in terms of what he brings to the field, but the fact that it would take $20 million for one year AND the resources it would take to acquire him - leaves me skeptical that it is the best use of resources. If Milwaukee decides they want to dump him then I am all for exploring that option, but I would only want him if they ate some of the salary or there was a more complex deal that brought back a cost controlled asset or two.
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Post by bmitchsox on Nov 9, 2013 15:08:55 GMT -5
So you traded for Yelich then didn't put him on the roster? Can you explain the logic behind why Miami would want a 31 year old Nava and a borderline middle reliever for one of the best Young OF in baseball. HAHAHA exactly!
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Post by bmitchsox on Nov 9, 2013 15:26:19 GMT -5
IMO the Sox will need better consistency behind Papi next year than Napoli will likely provide. Papi will be another year older and I wonder whether he can continue to be other worldly. Let's help him out. Ramirez? Maybe. Stanton....ahem!! If Nap stays OK but bat him down in the line-up. I am apparently among the dwindling that wants to keep Middlebrooks. That kind of firepower is not on every street corner. He is not a great or agile fielder..no Brooks he....but if Nap can play first why not Middlebrooks? I believe that his pitch rec. & selection will get better. He is what 25? I would love to have a home grown 30 hr. hitter. No way I trade Andrew Miller. That guy is a weapon. I want him on my side. I see Britton as a successor to Breslow so I would want to keep him but this is not mandatory. Please hold onto Doubront. He looked like a different guy in the Series...Yes I know SSS. For me Peavy & Dempster are surplusage. Eat some salary and save some bucks too. Sign Tanaka!!!! If I could add Stanton using my minor league prospects excepting Betts, JBJ, Cecchini, & Swihart, it's a go....altho I do like Webster. Well put. I agree that trading wmb now would be pointless. He struggled a little but flashed his potential quite often. I could see him at 1st in a year or 2, once cecchini is ready to take over 3rd. People hate on doubront too much, besides for a small stretch, he was very consistent last yr. He could be an ace in the future. I like Webster, but im not sure he will pan out like people think. I wouldnt mind throwing him in for Stanton (who would be perfect in boston!) to go along with Brentz, De La Rosa, Butler, Britton, Hassan. Maybe throw in Doubront/Betts and take out RDL if they wont take it. Cecchini, JBJ and swihart should be off limits.
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Post by semperfisox on Nov 9, 2013 15:37:40 GMT -5
you aren't going to get Stanton without at least two of JBJ, Cecchini & Swihart IMO. I'd want a couple of doctors looking at Stanton's legs before we pull the trigger on any deal that's for sure.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 15:48:52 GMT -5
I like the idea of signing Eric Chavez on a one-year deal, but I think it'd be impossible to fit him in without moving Carp (who should really be moved, I think). Chavez gives you a great left-handed bat for first and third, although he's really below average at the latter position these days as the injuries have destroyed his range. Still, he's mashed RHP's pretty well recently and would be great to have around on the bench if we're handing WMB a starting job again.
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Post by soxfanatic on Nov 9, 2013 15:52:45 GMT -5
I agree. Carp makes an ideal trade for other teams. He's relatively young, cost-controlled and coming off a good season, but he fits us bad. He can get us something valuable I think.
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Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 9, 2013 15:56:41 GMT -5
Ram, I really like the idea of bringing on Konerko also, but think of him more as part of a RHH platoon along with Nava / Carp if Napoli walks via free agency. I don't think he can play a full season at 1b, but as the short side of a platoon, could be a nice get around something like 1yr/$5m or such. Just looking at Konerko's last three seasons, these are his OPS splits against RHP and LHP, respectively: .924/.847; .861/.846; .600/.923 - what that tells me is he is no longer an option against RHP, but a very solid option against southpaws.
I want to give some more thought to this, and will likely change / update as the off-season unfolds, but I would at first glance be all over this line up against RHP / LHP Victorino-rf Pedroia-2b Ortiz-dh Beltran-lf / Gomes Nava-1b / Konerko Bogaerts-ss Middlebrooks-3b Saltalamacchia-c Bradley Jr-cf
Bench: Carp / Ross / Brendan Ryan.
In this scenario, I have obviously implied the Sox sign Beltran (2yrs / $30m), resigned Salty (3yrs/$28m), Konerko, and Ryan (no idea on his asking price but I will guess 1yr/$2.5m). You lose a pick at about 23 to sign Beltran, but still have 3 around let's say 29, 30 and 31 by allowing Napoli, Drew and Ellsbury to walk.
For the record, I would not have Beltran / Gomes as a straight platoon, but using Gomes more against the toughest LHP, such as Price, Moore, CC and those types.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2013 16:21:39 GMT -5
I like the idea of trading for Ramirez in terms of what he brings to the field, but the fact that it would take $20 million for one year AND the resources it would take to acquire him - leaves me skeptical that it is the best use of resources. If Milwaukee decides they want to dump him then I am all for exploring that option, but I would only want him if they ate some of the salary or there was a more complex deal that brought back a cost controlled asset or two. Well, Ramirez only counts $12m against the luxury tax this year (because that's calculated with AAV), and he only gets his $4m buyout in 2015 if he exercises his side of the mutual option and the Red Sox decline theirs (which will only happen if he plays really poorly in 2014). Ramirez actually gets paid $16m in 2014, but $6m of that is deferred, so it doesn't even actually hit John Henry's pocketbook that hard. For $12m against the luxury tax, Ramirez is much less risky (and probably cheaper) than Napoli and just flat out better than any of the other free agent options, so I'm willing to give up value to acquire him. For me, the bigger question is whether Milwaukee is motivated to trade him at all. They have some other good position player pieces (Gomez, Braun, Lucroy, Segura), but their pitching (both starting and relieving) is awful-- the rotation is headlined by a diminished Yovani Gallardo and Kyle Lohse, and their pen ranked 25th by fWAR in 2013. Their front office is probably inclined to grab a few cheap arms and keep Ramirez to try and compete next year, so the Red Sox will need to offer more than just a salary dump for them to bite. Pieces they may want and that I might be inclined to relinquish include Mike Carp or one of our young pitchers (I would strongly consider Workman or Ranaudo).
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
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Post by jimoh on Nov 9, 2013 16:34:37 GMT -5
That's if MIL really decides they're going to compete in 2014. Considering the major holes on their team and the boatload of competition in the division, the Brew Crew going for it in 2014 seems pretty foolish. I think they should (and are expected to) make a strong play at re-signing Hart. I don't think that's what they're saying, or that that's true. I think they need him just to be a competitive, not-a-complete-joke team. If someone has any evidence that the Brewers are thinking of completely tanking it and providing no reason for people to come to or watch games, I'd be happy to hear it. The claim that they need to save money so much that they would give up Ramirez for almost nothing needs to be supported with more than wishful thinking.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 16:40:11 GMT -5
That's if MIL really decides they're going to compete in 2014. Considering the major holes on their team and the boatload of competition in the division, the Brew Crew going for it in 2014 seems pretty foolish. I think they should (and are expected to) make a strong play at re-signing Hart. I don't think that's what they're saying, or that that's true. I think they need him just to be a competitive, not-a-complete-joke team. If someone has any evidence that the Brewers are thinking of completely tanking it and providing no reason for people to come to or watch games, I'd be happy to hear it. The claim that they need to save money so much that they would give up Ramirez for almost nothing needs to be supported with more than wishful thinking. But they don't need him for that reason at all. They have Braun, Aoki, Gomez, Segura, Weeks (although he's collapsed offensively), Lucroy, Davis. Offense isn't their main issue, they just don't have depth at the infield corners and are extremely right-handed, which presents some issues over a full season. A-Ram isn't the difference between them completely tanking or not. Their offense is very solid when everyones healthy, and that holds true with Hart replacing Ramirez's bat.
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Post by flourcitydoughboy on Nov 9, 2013 16:41:38 GMT -5
My major league roster, and possible AAA fill-ins, at the start of the season:
C. Ross C. Ruiz (FA) 1B. Ike Davis (trade for Deven Marrero and Daniel Nava--I would prefer Napoli on a high-priced, single year contract, but I think he'll accept a multi-year deal elsewhere) 2B. Pedroia SS. Bogaerts 3B. Middlebrooks LF/1B. Mike Carp LF. Jonny Gomes CF. Bradley RF. Victorino DH. Ortiz OF. Chris Young (FA) MI. Munenori Kawasaki (FA)
SP. Lester SP. Lackey SP. Doubront SP. Buchholz SP. Peavy
CL. Uehara RSU. Tazawa LSU. Breslow LMR. Miller LMR. Morales RMR. Workman RMR. Villarreal
Ryan Dempster + 1.5 million traded to Philadelphia for Zach Collier
AAA Depth:
AAA Starters De La Rosa Webster Ranaudo Barnes Wright
AAA Bullpen Wilson Britton Hinojosa Martin Hernandez
AAA Position Players for possible call-ups C. Vasquez C. Butler C/DH. Lavarnway 2B/3B. Holt SS. Meneses? 3B. Cecchini LF. Hassan LF/RF. Brentz LF/RF. Linares OF. Kalish LF/RF/2B/3B. Castellanos
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Nov 9, 2013 16:44:57 GMT -5
That's if MIL really decides they're going to compete in 2014. Considering the major holes on their team and the boatload of competition in the division, the Brew Crew going for it in 2014 seems pretty foolish. I think they should (and are expected to) make a strong play at re-signing Hart. I don't think that's what they're saying, or that that's true. I think they need him just to be a competitive, not-a-complete-joke team. If someone has any evidence that the Brewers are thinking of completely tanking it and providing no reason for people to come to or watch games, I'd be happy to hear it. The claim that they need to save money so much that they would give up Ramirez for almost nothing needs to be supported with more than wishful thinking. Well, the current CBA does massively incentivize doing exactly that.
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2013 16:55:41 GMT -5
The Brewers might also think they can spend $16m more efficiently on the free market (by filling their multiple pitching holes) than on one injury-prone third baseman who is probably only be around one more year. For instance, if they traded him to the Red Sox for Mike Carp, they'd fill their 1B hole while having an extra $14.5m to spend on pitching (they would open a 3B hole, but they have some internal options there).
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 17:11:00 GMT -5
The Brewers might also think they can spend $16m more efficiently on the free market (by filling their multiple pitching holes) than on one injury-prone third baseman who is probably only be around one more year. For instance, if they traded him to the Red Sox for Mike Carp, they'd fill their 1B hole while having an extra $14.5m to spend on pitching (they would open a 3B hole, but they have some internal options there). This. I should have clarified earlier that I wasn't talking about salary dumping in the sense that they need to reduce payroll and do a team re-build, but instead need to re-allocate where their money is going. With a pretty impressive offensive team, held back only by the right-handedness, they need to take some of that dough owed to A-Ram or Braun and put it towards pitching. Note: They only ranked in the exact middle of the NL in OPS this season, but keep in mind Braun's absence and the absolute joke of a 1B situation in 2013: .211/.256/.359 (and none of the 7 guys they used had ever played an MLB game at 1B before!). Hart and Carp are eons above that.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 9, 2013 17:46:12 GMT -5
Not sure whether I like Plan A or B better. I've been a huge advocate of re-signing Napoli, but I have to admit that Plan B here has some advantages.
Plan A
Re-sign Ellsbury, Napoli, and Saltalamacchia. Bradley goes back to Pawtucket, for the time being.
Since you need to trade Peavy to create salary space, take whatever you can get for him, from some team willing to take on most or all of his salary. Dempster starts the season as the 5th starter, with the hope that he recovers some trade value in April and May; in any case he'll eventually be shipped off to open up a rotation slot for Webster, Workman, or (I have to say it!) Wright.
Plan B
Re-sign Ellsbury and Saltalamacchia. Take the draft pick for Napoli. Carp becomes the 1B and Bradley the 4th OF, with the option of Bradley in LF and Nava at 1B. Give Dempster away, eating as much salary as necessary, and hope that Peavy bounces back some towards his 2012 form, still with the eye of trading him to make room in the rotation for one of the above.
Plans C and D
If you get outbid for Ellsbury ... well, I'm still thinking about that one, but I like the idea of doing one of the above with Beltran substitued for Ellsbury. In plan A, Nava is traded for prospects, and in Plan B, he becomes a super-sub backing up all three OF positions, 1B, and DH, with a shot at the regular 1B job if I'm wrong about Mike Carp being really, really good.
All plans
Sign Punto, and a RHR TBD. Trade Dan Butler for a comparable non-40-man roster prospect. Sign two or three of the absolute cream of the crop of pitchers available on split major / minor deals, promising them that they'll be competing with Morales, Workman, Britton, and Villareal for the last two bullpen spots. (Those guys do not generally get a chance to compete for spots on good teams, let alone WS winners, and we can certainly offer them better contracts than most of the weaker teams looking for lottery-ticket arms.)
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Post by ifixbadcredit on Nov 9, 2013 18:55:25 GMT -5
Free agency 1) B McCann 5/80 2) T Hudson 2/20 3) J Johnson 1/10 4) C Beltran 2/30 5) N Punto 1/2
Trades 1) Lackey, Carp, Brentz, Larvanway for B Belt 2) Ceccini, Swihart, Owens, Ranaudo, Coyle for G Stanton 3) Dempster for Hochever 4) Peavy, Morales, and Nava for L Gregerson and Burch Smith
Line up CF Victorino 2b Pedroia LF Beltran DH Ortiz RF Stanton C McCann SS Bogaerts 1b Belt 3b Middlebrooks
Bench Lf Gomes Of Berry UT Punto C Ross
Rotation Lester Buccholz Doubrant Hudson Johnson
Bullpen CL Koji SU Tazawa SU Miller MR Breslow MR Hochever MR Gregerson LR Workman
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 9, 2013 19:22:59 GMT -5
A lot of this is getting out of hand...
On those that aren't completely some questions to wrap my head around things...
Why would the Sox prefer Ike Davis at first over Nava?
Jmei, why do you consider Aramis less of a risk then Napoli? Contract? We're asking Aramis to play a position he never has... Like the bat, but he's an injury risk as well as an age risk... 35 pre steroids wasn't a good age for a player, I expect the same... I'm also in the minority in thinking Napoli will be back on a 2 year deal w a vesting option...
I don't understand why people would prefer old Chavez to Carp... Bogey provides backup to 3b and they will sign a shortstop separately.
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Post by mattpicard on Nov 9, 2013 19:34:28 GMT -5
A lot of this is getting out of hand... On those that aren't completely some questions to wrap my head around things... Why would the Sox prefer Ike Davis at first over Nava? Jmei, why do you consider Aramis less of a risk then Napoli? Contract? We're asking Aramis to play a position he never has... Like the bat, but he's an injury risk as well as an age risk... 35 pre steroids wasn't a good age for a player, I expect the same... I'm also in the minority in thinking Napoli will be back on a 2 year deal w a vesting option... I don't understand why people would prefer old Chavez to Carp... Bogey provides backup to 3b and they will sign a shortstop separately. Not jmei, but my two cents: - Moving from 3B to 1B is one of the easiest positional changes you can make, so I don't think that will be a big issue. A-Ram likely won't come close to putting up the stellar defensive numbers Nap did this season, but it's entirely reasonable to expect him to be in the -5 to +3 run range. - An injury risk, yes (mostly concerned with his knee), but he'd only be here short term, so it's a gamble I take. Also, the move across the diamond would only help with keeping him healthy. - A-Ram's bat over Nap's any day due to the lack of K's and comparable power. 30 HR threat players with less than 100 k's in a full season are rare these days. - Carp had an extremely unsustainable BABIP season, which drove his average up big time. I think we can get a good return now on him, with some teams looking at him as an everyday first baseman, against RHP's at least. Regarding Carp vs. Chavez, sure Xander can back up 3B, but then who'd play SS? Against a righty, having Chavez backup at third with Xander at short is going to give you the best offense. Carp's ability to play LF doesn't really help us much, and ideally we'll have enough of an offensive threat at 1B to be starting nearly every day, as we did with Nap in 2013. - Ike over Nava? Yuck. How is that even defensible?
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Post by jmei on Nov 9, 2013 19:48:33 GMT -5
Jmei, why do you consider Aramis less of a risk then Napoli? Contract? We're asking Aramis to play a position he never has... Like the bat, but he's an injury risk as well as an age risk... 35 pre steroids wasn't a good age for a player, I expect the same... I'm also in the minority in thinking Napoli will be back on a 2 year deal w a vesting option... (1) Napoli's declining contact numbers terrify me. Three years in a row, he's made less contact with pitches both out of the zone (65.9% -> 62.7% -> 59.9%) and in the zone (78.7% -> 74.7% -> 72.4%). That contact rate on pitches in the zone was the lowest in the league last year by a significant margin. This kind of player often just totally collapses once his contact issues reach critical mass-- see, e.g., Mark Reynolds, Richie Sexson, Carlos Pena, Ryan Howard, etc. (2) BABIP regression. .367 in 2013, not going to be repeated. If he hits .240 instead of .260, the rest of his line starts looking a lot worse. Steamer projects him to hit .245/.347/.460 (119 wRC+) next year, which is not much above league-average for a first baseman (the average first baseman in the AL hit for a 113 wRC+). (3) Expected contract. MLBTR expects three years, $42m. Fangraphs Crowdsourcing expects three years, $40m. That's a lot of money for a player with both serious performance and injury red flags. EDIT: I don't think re-signing Napoli on that sort of contract is the worst idea in the world. He only needs to rack up something around 7.5 wins to be worth that contract, and his surprising defense means that there's a decent change he makes it if he doesn't collapse. But the chances of a catastrophic collapse (whether due to performance or injury) are just much too high for me. If Ramirez isn't available and the Red Sox find themselves with extra payroll space (i.e., they don't sign Ellsbury or McCann or any other premium free agent), I'd happy to just re-sign Napoli and pray. But Ramirez represents a lower-risk scenario, and one with upside to boot (for instance, Ramirez is the kind of dead-pull hitter who might mash at Fenway).
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