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A Logical Look at Giancarlo Stanton
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 11, 2014 8:35:28 GMT -5
Coming into the year, I was not a fan of the idea of trading an elite package of prospects and handing a massive contract to Stanton, but a couple things have changed and I am coming around to the idea that it may be a necessity.
1. Stanton has stayed healthy this year and the last 2 years seems to have shown an improved approach at the plate which will serve him well. Walk rate is up to about 14% and his K rate has improved.
2. Power is almost nonexistent and he's not just a power hitter although he's one of the best power hitters in the game. He gets on base and offers a power guy who fits the Red Sox OBP mold too. THIS TEAM NEEDS A NEW MIDDLE OF THE ORDER. THIS GUY COULD HOPEFULLY ALMOST REPLACE WHAT MANNY PROVIDED.
3. He's young. Still just 24. The Sox won't spend money on anything else so they need to go get the young guys and lock them up.
4. The system keeps developing and they are in position to make multiple major trades and not be depleted. Need to turn those chips into major league production one way or another.
Now the questions comes who to trade. My guess would be the Marlins want some pitching but mostly infield prospects back as they have a nice young outfield mix. I do think they are trying to contend so major league ready talent is probably on their wish list.
I've long been a skeptic of Owens and what he will actually do vs advanced major leaguers. It's getting harder and harder to be a skeptic and young top starters are still hard to come by and he's our best chance. This team won't pay older ones so can they afford to trade Owens?
Betts, I'd move in a second. I'm not nearly as high on him as most here. If he's looked at as a top 20 prospect in baseball, I'd cash that in QUICKLY. That will only last a small window so you've got this offseason to do it.
Swithart, is an unbelievably difficult guy to move on from, but if it means keeping Owens then I'd probably do it, plus Vasquez makes it easier to do.
Would they be interested in Craig for first base? Good veteran hitter on a controlled reasonable contract for 3 years... He won't fit here especially with Stanton in the mix.
I'm hoping for something like:
Betts, Craig, Kelly, De La Rosa, Marrero and Middlebrooks.
My guess is it's more like
Betts, Swithart, Craig, Ranaudo , Marrero and Middlebrooks.
By the end of next year the marlins may be starting that entire infield.
The thing to remember is these packages are never as big as we speculate them to be. I realize some will look at my first proposal as dimes and nickels for a quarter, but Stanton will be the most valuable guy in the trade no matter who's in it. Based off what we know, not what we speculate. Also, trades are involving more major league talent and less prospects only. Craig, Kelky and ade la rosa would give Miami prove. players ready to step in and help win right away. Mookie and marrero could as well up the middle. I included Middlebrooks because he's a change of scenery guy they reportedly have been interested in so I'm sure they wouldn't mind the flyer. Especially to offset the RH Power they lost. The Marlins are a perfect team to take a lot of sure thing pieces with upside rather than banking on 1 or 2 players who could give them little to nothing.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 11, 2014 9:55:10 GMT -5
But does these trades make our team better? I don't think so. I would actually much rather have your second proposal than the first.
Kelly and DLR are probably penciled into the 2015 rotation right now. That would leave the starting rotation before acquisitions -- 1) Buchholz 2)Workman 3)Webster 4) Ranaudo 5) Barnes. Ouch! There also wouldn't be a ton of depth behind that rotation either. It would also be trading away two of our cheaper pitchers, so any replacements are going to come at a much higher $ price.
Betts, Marrero, and Middlebrooks are in a ill defined position. None of them will have a defined role going into 2015, but they all would project to get some playing time, and if they play to their potential they can be very valuable. They are all trade candidates, that's for sure, but it doesn't mean they are not valuable or can't help the 2015 team.
Craig is the last player and you are essentially including everyone above to upgrade Craig from a average player with good potential and relatively cheap to an elite player who will require a huge extension. I don't think that is the situation this team needs to win. If Stanton gets hurt or doesn't perform, you basically traded 6 players away for nothing.
Last part of this is the long term plan to this team. Stanton is under control till 2016, so you are trading for 2 season worth of Stanton and exclusive negotiation rights. If you trade for him, you basically have to extend him or you just burned all your prospects for 2 years. I can't foresee his extension being less than 8 years 200M, and that is the cheapest I think he would possibly sign. In reality I don't see him taking less than the 248M extension Cabrera took, if not going after A-Rod's crown. This is on top of trading away cheap long term players. So you are paying lots of money for one guy, losing cheap players, and having to replace those players with more expensive guys. I just don't see how this trade improves our team long term or short term.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 11, 2014 10:29:33 GMT -5
I still say the Miguel Cabrera trade is the template. Same age, same years of control, both 5-6 WARish star players. And of course we're dealing with the same team (albeit with a different GM, but we know Loria runs the show there).
Considering that, I think we have to give up 2 of Mookie, Owens or Swihart. Which I would do. Bogaerts is off the table, imo. Both Maybin and Miller were top 10 prospects, whereas our guys are more like 10-20.
Something like
Mookie, Swihart, Brian Johnson and Cespedes to offset the loss of Stanton for 2015
I think is fair or at the very least a great starting point (maybe they would want another prospect instead of Cespedes, etc)
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2014 13:02:28 GMT -5
Coming into the year, I was not a fan of the idea of trading an elite package of prospects and handing a massive contract to Stanton, but a couple things have changed and I am coming around to the idea that it may be a necessity. 1. Stanton has stayed healthy this year and the last 2 years seems to have shown an improved approach at the plate which will serve him well. Walk rate is up to about 14% and his K rate has improved. 2. Power is almost nonexistent and he's not just a power hitter although he's one of the best power hitters in the game. He gets on base and offers a power guy who fits the Red Sox OBP mold too. THIS TEAM NEEDS A NEW MIDDLE OF THE ORDER. THIS GUY COULD HOPEFULLY ALMOST REPLACE WHAT MANNY PROVIDED. 3. He's young. Still just 24. The Sox won't spend money on anything else so they need to go get the young guys and lock them up. 4. The system keeps developing and they are in position to make multiple major trades and not be depleted. Need to turn those chips into major league production one way or another. Now the questions comes who to trade. My guess would be the Marlins want some pitching but mostly infield prospects back as they have a nice young outfield mix. I do think they are trying to contend so major league ready talent is probably on their wish list. I've long been a skeptic of Owens and what he will actually do vs advanced major leaguers. It's getting harder and harder to be a skeptic and young top starters are still hard to come by and he's our best chance. This team won't pay older ones so can they afford to trade Owens? Betts, I'd move in a second. I'm not nearly as high on him as most here. If he's looked at as a top 20 prospect in baseball, I'd cash that in QUICKLY. That will only last a small window so you've got this offseason to do it. Swithart, is an unbelievably difficult guy to move on from, but if it means keeping Owens then I'd probably do it, plus Vasquez makes it easier to do. Would they be interested in Craig for first base? Good veteran hitter on a controlled reasonable contract for 3 years... He won't fit here especially with Stanton in the mix. I'm hoping for something like: Betts, Craig, Kelly, De La Rosa, Marrero and Middlebrooks. My guess is it's more like Betts, Swithart, Craig, Ranaudo , Marrero and Middlebrooks. By the end of next year the marlins may be starting that entire infield. The thing to remember is these packages are never as big as we speculate them to be. I realize some will look at my first proposal as dimes and nickels for a quarter, but Stanton will be the most valuable guy in the trade no matter who's in it. Based off what we know, not what we speculate. Also, trades are involving more major league talent and less prospects only. Craig, Kelky and ade la rosa would give Miami prove. players ready to step in and help win right away. Mookie and marrero could as well up the middle. I included Middlebrooks because he's a change of scenery guy they reportedly have been interested in so I'm sure they wouldn't mind the flyer. Especially to offset the RH Power they lost. The Marlins are a perfect team to take a lot of sure thing pieces with upside rather than banking on 1 or 2 players who could give them little to nothing. I remember the Von Hayes for five players deal that went down in the early 80s between Philly and Cleveland. The Phillies got Hayes but gave up Julio Franco among others. I don't think Stanton will get six players, but he'll get quality. If they want major league ready, then Cespedes and Brock Holt would fill that bill and Holt could play 2nd or 3b (assuming McGehee is gone) if those are areas of need. WMB would be a good target IF he could hit, which is something he hasn't done since 2012. If he could impress the last two months, perhaps that would attract Miami more. My guess is he won't and the Fish won't want him. I figure Betts is a goner, which to me, would be a shame. I think he could be a very dynamic leadoff hitter and at this rate, he's the guy I'd want in CF for 2015. Bradley's amazing glovework doesn't make up for his noodle bat. Despite all the computations of how Vazquez and Swihart can co-exist on the same team, it's unlikely that would happen. Odds are the Sox have a steady 1b and a steady DH and don't need two high ceiling catchers to split 162 games. Realistically both of them will catch 120 games, but for different teams. And of course, Owens would be a Miami target as well. So you're looking at a possible realistic proposal of Cespedes, Holt, Betts, Swihart and Owens for Stanton and a minor player. Don't think the Sox would make that deal as they probably wouldn't deal away Owens. So then you're looking at variations, perhaps one where the Sox give up Johnson instead, keep Holt, but but have to instead include a high ceiling talent like Devers or Margot, which I'd hate to see them do. There are so many variations but if the Marlins are convinced they can't sign Stanton and that they can get a king's ransom by not waiting for July 2015, then the Sox and the Marlins do match up. But then again, the Dodgers can match up just as easily. They can subsidize Matt Kemp (who can replace a portion of Stanton's power long-term long and for cheap $), deal Seager and Lee, and some other pieces and walk away with Stanton just as easily and they'd have no issue in extending him. |
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 11, 2014 16:16:31 GMT -5
The Dodgers aren't getting him without giving up 2 of Pederson, Seager and Urias. The Marlins would have no interest in Kemp unless LA eats about 80% of his entire contract, which is unlikely.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 11, 2014 16:48:23 GMT -5
I see the following as fitting each teams needs; I don't see the Marlins being interested in A-ball lottery types since they are not rebuilding. JBJ, Craig, and/or Cespedes could also be worked into deals depending on the Marlins interest.
One of Owens/Swihart/Betts (if not two)
One of Marrero/Middlebrooks/Holt/Coyle/Cecchini (two here if not two above)
One of Webster/Johnson/Rodriguez
One of Barnes/Escobar
Our system is stacked. Get it done Ben. If Ben somehow manages to keep Cespedes and Betts on top of getting Stanton, I would be so giddy for next year's offense. Not sure that happens though since Stanton is an extremely special player and only 24 years old.
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Post by ramireja on Aug 11, 2014 16:57:38 GMT -5
These proposals seem a bit stacked in favor of Miami. Who was the last single player to be traded for 5 or more quality prospects/current MLB talent?
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 11, 2014 17:10:27 GMT -5
These proposals seem a bit stacked in favor of Miami. Who was the last single player to be traded for 5 or more quality prospects/current MLB talent? One deal that comes to mind is Atlanta's deadline deal for Mark Teixiera (and Ron Mahay). That was a deadline deal for one additional year of team control (we would get even more with Stanton), and the Braves gave up... C Jarrod Saltalamacchia (23, MLB) SS Elvis Andrus (20, AA) SP Matt Harrison (22, MLB) SP/RP Beau Jones (22, AA) RP Neftali Perez AA SP (21) Of course it seems like the Braves got hosed here, but perhaps the story would be different had they managed to lock up Teixiera to an extension or one more of the prospects ended up flaming out. Matt Harrison was a pretty good mid-rotation starter for a few seasons before injuries hit. Feliz has been a solid but not spectacular reliever. Beau Jones never did anything in the MLB. Texas didn't even get anything out of Saltalamacchia, he only really came into his own after moving onto another team (perhaps you've heard of them). Andrus was the guy who ended up making it bad for the Braves, but what if they had made the World Series? Perhaps a reasonable price. We would be getting a two full seasons of Stanton plus the rights to negotiate with him as a FA. Teixiera was 27, Stanton is only 24. |
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Post by ethanbein on Aug 11, 2014 20:56:37 GMT -5
We would be getting a full season of Stanton plus the rights to negotiate with him as a FA. Teixiera was 27, Stanton is only 24. Stanton is only on his first arbitration year; he won't be a free agent until after the 2016 season. If the Red Sox are getting Stanton, I want him locked up. I would have no problem giving him something like 10/200 or maybe even a little more. Even considering that it would be 2 arb years and 8 FA years, that would definitely be below market, and 24 year olds just don't hit free agency. If they had an idea that they could get something like that done, I would be happy to get something in the range of Cespedes/Betts/Owens/Ranaudo done. If Miami does put him on the trade market, it seems like that could get done. I can't see any other team with both the prospects and desire to win now that would give up that kind of a package for him. |
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Aug 11, 2014 20:58:35 GMT -5
Stanton is only on his first arbitration year; he won't be a free agent until after the 2016 season. If the Red Sox are getting Stanton, I want him locked up. I would have no problem giving him something like 10/200 or maybe even a little more. Even considering that it would be 2 arb years and 8 FA years, that would definitely be below market, and 24 year olds just don't hit free agency. If they had an idea that they could get something like that done, I would be happy to get something in the range of Cespedes/Betts/Owens/Ranaudo done. If Miami does put him on the trade market, it seems like that could get done. I can't see any other team with both the prospects and desire to win now that would give up that kind of a package for him. Oh wow, thanks for clearing that up. An oversight on my part, and likely puts the price even higher than I anticipated. I agree with wanting him locked up as well if we do go all in. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2014 21:31:25 GMT -5
The Dodgers aren't getting him without giving up 2 of Pederson, Seager and Urias. The Marlins would have no interest in Kemp unless LA eats about 80% of his entire contract, which is unlikely. Why is this unlikely? The Dodgers print money. They took on Carl Crawford and Josh Beckett because they really, really wanted Adrian Gonzalez. A heavily subsidized Kemp can be stuffed into the middle of the Marlins order and he'd be locked up for five years compared to having a rental like Cespedes be part of a deal. If I'm the Marlins, I'd take Kemp in that scenario. I don't see the Marlins committing 5 years $90 million or whatever it would take to land Cespedes. I wouldn't think that the Dodgers would have to put both Pederson and Seager into the deal - it would leave them without a serviceable CF, but it's not like the Dodgers couldn't get one. My main point was that the Dodgers match up every bit as well with the Marlins, but I do think the Sox have more variations of a deal they can make with Florida, which could be the difference maker. The Sox can include major leaguers like Holt, WMB or Bradley (not that either is a hot commodity) and Cespedes. They have solid prospects to deal. They would have to find the right match that leaves them with who they least want to part with, which I would guess would be Owens. Swihart, Betts, Johnson, and Ranaudo might get the trade done, even though I would hate to part with Betts and Swihart. |
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 12, 2014 7:27:01 GMT -5
We would be getting a full season of Stanton plus the rights to negotiate with him as a FA. Teixiera was 27, Stanton is only 24. Stanton is only on his first arbitration year; he won't be a free agent until after the 2016 season. If the Red Sox are getting Stanton, I want him locked up. I would have no problem giving him something like 10/200 or maybe even a little more. Even considering that it would be 2 arb years and 8 FA years, that would definitely be below market, and 24 year olds just don't hit free agency. If they had an idea that they could get something like that done, I would be happy to get something in the range of Cespedes/Betts/Owens/Ranaudo done. If Miami does put him on the trade market, it seems like that could get done. I can't see any other team with both the prospects and desire to win now that would give up that kind of a package for him. Try 10/300. |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 12, 2014 10:56:36 GMT -5
I don't think we would trade for Stanton until after the 2015 season. If we do at all. I'm hoping 2015 gives a couple of our young prospects a chance to shine and entice Miami. I'm thinking Margot and Rijo. A couple of pitching prospects. They usualy fluctuate more than the hitting prospects. By then, Xander and Mookie will have established themselves as untouchables. In CF and at SS. Though, I'd consider trying Mookie at 3b.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 12, 2014 13:26:25 GMT -5
A question that surprisingly hasn't been asked but.... At this point why wouldn't Stanton test free agency? He has two years left of team control and baring a huge drop off/injury he would clean up on the open market. Huge inflation YYT with baseball contracts would also benefit him to wait.
Assuming that is his mind set would there be much value in trading for him?
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 13, 2014 9:09:41 GMT -5
Stanton is only on his first arbitration year; he won't be a free agent until after the 2016 season. If the Red Sox are getting Stanton, I want him locked up. I would have no problem giving him something like 10/200 or maybe even a little more. Even considering that it would be 2 arb years and 8 FA years, that would definitely be below market, and 24 year olds just don't hit free agency. If they had an idea that they could get something like that done, I would be happy to get something in the range of Cespedes/Betts/Owens/Ranaudo done. If Miami does put him on the trade market, it seems like that could get done. I can't see any other team with both the prospects and desire to win now that would give up that kind of a package for him. Try 10/300. On the open market, sure. But there's no way he's getting that two years away from FA. For one thing, if you're giving him a 10 year deal, you're expecting some kind of a discount on the AAV in exchange for the security he's getting. And there's a chance he wouldn't even want a 10 year deal anyway as it limits his chances of getting another huge contract either in FA or a pre-FA extension when he's 31/32. And remember, he's not a Boras guy. I think something like 8/200 would get it done. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 13, 2014 9:29:32 GMT -5
Joey Votto was 28, had two years of control left, and signed a 10 year 225M dollar extension. Why wouldn't Stanton beat that at age 26?
I think the question is, why would Stanton take less than what Cano got. I'm not sure there is an answer to that.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 9:48:43 GMT -5
To be fair, 8/$200m is a better contract than 10/$225m. Stanton would be a free agent again at age 33 on an eight-year deal, so he might want something either slightly shorter or slightly longer.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 13, 2014 10:24:45 GMT -5
I would think he would rather have the guaranteed money with a player option, and I would also think he has the leverage to get that option, with a larger contract.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 13, 2014 11:22:19 GMT -5
Can we flip that CB pick that we got in the Lester deal? Cespedes(with him they can still compete and sign him 6/70ish) one of Betts/Owens, One Two of Marrero/Middlebrooks/Holt/Coyle/Cecchini, and CB pick? Not enough? Too much? everyones thoughts.
Edit: CB pick can only be traded by the team awarded it.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 11:26:50 GMT -5
Can we flip that CB pick that we got in the Lester deal? Cespedes(with him they can still compete and sign him 6/70ish) one of Betts/Owens One of Marrero/Middlebrooks/Holt/Coyle/Cecchini, and CB pick? Not enough? Too much? everyones thoughts. Think it only can be traded once. |
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 11:29:43 GMT -5
Boston can't trade the competitive balance pick (weirdly, it can only be traded once). I also don't think the Marlins would be interested in Cespedes-- he's going to cost a lot to re-sign (way more than 6/$70m), and despite their frequent protestations, I think they're more likely to focus on a long-term rebuild than a run at contention in 2015. Jose Fernandez will be out a large chunk of next year, and they don't really have any win-now veterans on the roster (the only veterans under control for next year are Saltalamacchia, Garrett Jones, and Jeff Baker) but are stacked with young talent (Yelich, Heaney, Ozuna, Alvarez, Marisnick, Nicolino, DeSclafani, etc).
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Aug 13, 2014 11:33:01 GMT -5
Marisnick is an Astro now but okay. I should have rephrased it If they want to be competitive. Then I think it would be a Cabrera type deal.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 11:43:41 GMT -5
I've been googling Stanton articles and it seems that he spends his offseasons in LA and is probably leaning towards the Dodgers if he reaches free agency. That may affect his willingness to sign any kind of discounted extension if we traded for him. That's just pure speculation on my part so take it for what it's worth.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2014 12:58:05 GMT -5
I've been googling Stanton articles and it seems that he spends his offseasons in LA and is probably leaning towards the Dodgers if he reaches free agency. That may affect his willingness to sign any kind of discounted extension if we traded for him. That's just pure speculation on my part so take it for what it's worth. Perhaps that's why the Sox used Lester to deal for Cespedes. Cespedes is no Stanton, but he might be the Sox best option. Perhaps they feel that if they do trade for him, he'd more likely bolt for LA once his two seasons are up, and therefore the Sox would be hesitant to give up a lot for a two year (or less) rental. I do believe that he will get a 10 year $300 million offer in free agency (most likely LA). If that's the case, then I really wouldn't want to give up that much for him. One nice prospect, and some B to B- prospects. If the Red Sox are to give up a substantial portion of their farm system, then they would need to have an extension in place with him and if I'm Stanton, I would have to think there would be a big payday where he likes to spend his time and for a team that has a good shot at being a winner every year, and that he wouldn't sign an extension unless the Sox forked over an 8 year extension worth $250 million, and even then he might not go for it. |
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 13, 2014 16:09:37 GMT -5
Yeah, remember when CC Sabathia wanted to pitch on the West Coast?
You guys are way overthinking this. Stanton would welcome a trade here and he would sign an extension in a heartbeat (and if for some odd reason he wouldn't, they wouldn't trade for him). He's not going to turn down 200+ million when he's that far from free agency.
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