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A Logical Look at Giancarlo Stanton
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 13, 2014 16:15:52 GMT -5
Yeah, remember when CC Sabathia wanted to pitch on the West Coast? You guys are way overthinking this. Stanton would welcome a trade here and he would sign an extension in a heartbeat (and if for some odd reason he wouldn't, they wouldn't trade for him). He's not going to turn down 200+ million when he's that far from free agency. If he expects and could get $300 million he might. Sabathia went to the highest bidder, completely different. If Stanton liked the Dodgers, they'd probably be the highest bidders anyway. And given the possibility that he'd be more willing to sign with them, the Dodgers would probably be more likely to give up a package to get him.
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Post by orcoaster on Aug 13, 2014 16:52:05 GMT -5
I think the acquisitions of Craig and Cespedes signal that the Red Sox see Stanton as either unobtainable or too expensive in both prospects and money. Much as I'd like to see it, I don't think Stanton will be a Red Sox.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2014 21:08:15 GMT -5
Yeah, remember when CC Sabathia wanted to pitch on the West Coast? You guys are way overthinking this. Stanton would welcome a trade here and he would sign an extension in a heartbeat (and if for some odd reason he wouldn't, they wouldn't trade for him). He's not going to turn down 200+ million when he's that far from free agency. I'm not overthinking this. JimEd is making good points. Would he "welcome" a trade here? Sure, especially if the Sox throw $250 - $300 million his way, and I think in some ways the Sox match up in deals better than the Dodgers because the Sox can make a variety of different packages that might suit Miami. However, the Dodgers can heavily subsidize Kemp (and yes, they would do that) and that would lock in Miami with a middle of the order type hitter for the long-term (Allen Craig comes the closest to fitting that profile, but if his bat is toast, then forget about it), and if they're willing to give up one of their Big 3 in addition along with some other 2nd tier prospects, then LA certainly has a legit shot at making a deal, and as far as extending goes, that would be no issue for the Dodgers. If Stanton doesn't want to sign an extension and wants to play it out to free agency, the Dodgers would have the best shot at signing him, and if JimEd is correct, and LA is where he spends a lot of his time, well then it's a no-brainer where he's going to go. The fact that Cherington cashed in Lester and Lackey to get Cespedes and Craig tells me that he's not too certain that he can come away with Stanton and he's understandably hedging his bets.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2014 21:39:21 GMT -5
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 13, 2014 22:29:04 GMT -5
Jeez, sounds like they would wait as long as possible, say July 2016 and then expect a Bogaerts plus Betts plus up and coming prospects like Devers or Margot and some other pieces type of deal for two to three months of Stanton. No thanks to that. Hope a team like the A's rents Stanton for two months in a deal like they did with Lester and then hope the Sox open the vaults for him, although they'd be competing against NY and LA.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 14, 2014 17:56:07 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 14, 2014 20:34:36 GMT -5
I will believe it when I see it. I trust heyman over Someone who is a mouth peace for Mia
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 15, 2014 18:59:54 GMT -5
Hilarious. Because trading your best player is the fastest way to winning now. They will end up trading him and it wont be for established big leaguers.
And it's misleading to say they traded Miggy for six prospects. Maybin and Miller were both ostensibly major leauge ready at the time and the other pieces in the deal were minor.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 15, 2014 19:08:06 GMT -5
Yeah, remember when CC Sabathia wanted to pitch on the West Coast? You guys are way overthinking this. Stanton would welcome a trade here and he would sign an extension in a heartbeat (and if for some odd reason he wouldn't, they wouldn't trade for him). He's not going to turn down 200+ million when he's that far from free agency. If he expects and could get $300 million he might. Sabathia went to the highest bidder, completely different. If Stanton liked the Dodgers, they'd probably be the highest bidders anyway. And given the possibility that he'd be more willing to sign with them, the Dodgers would probably be more likely to give up a package to get him. Last point is a fair one but I still think the Red Sox have a better shot because of the system depth. LAD could top us but it would gut them. And if we worked out a deal with MIA, we're not going to lose Stanton over money. I think 200 would get it done but if not, they'll do what it takes. He's a 24/5 year old superstar, he is the kind of guy they will break the bank for.
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Post by bryce on Aug 19, 2014 9:49:30 GMT -5
How abou the possiblity of trading Yoenis Cespedes? And you say Heyward and Bruce's trade seems really impossible,do the Giancarlo's trade more likely? Although I am a Sox fan,but I think Giancarlo Stanton will stay in Miami in the long-term. The management of Marlins takes Giancarlo's extension seriously this time. I don't think Dan Jennings or his Boss- Loria will do such a stupid thing again(Trading away their corestone star......) Recent rumors about the Sox can get him is just a fantasy or daydreaming of Sox's fans!
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:07:11 GMT -5
There is little chance that Stanton will be traded this offseason, much to the dismay of many posters here.
It is possible that the Red Sox will trade Cespedes this offseason, if they believe Craig and Victorino are healthy. However, it is more likely that Cespedes will be a trade deadline deal if (1) they don't believe they can re-sign him or they do not want to re-sign him or (2) the Red Sox are out of the race again. Because of the health concerns with Craig and Victorino, I don't see the Red Sox trading away viable power bats such as Napoli or Cespedes.
The Red Sox offseason is likely to be centered around acquiring pitching, not bats.
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Post by semperfisox on Aug 19, 2014 10:28:28 GMT -5
There is little chance that Stanton will be traded this offseason, much to the dismay of many posters here.It is possible that the Red Sox will trade Cespedes this offseason, if they believe Craig and Victorino are healthy. However, it is more likely that Cespedes will be a trade deadline deal if (1) they don't believe they can re-sign him or they do not want to re-sign him or (2) the Red Sox are out of the race again. Because of the health concerns with Craig and Victorino, I don't see the Red Sox trading away viable power bats such as Napoli or Cespedes. The Red Sox offseason is likely to be centered around acquiring pitching, not bats. what are you basing this off of? Sure Miami says they want to build around him, but they cant realistically pay him the contract he deserves.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 10:31:13 GMT -5
They can, and they will try to do so. Giancarlo Stanton is this site's white whale.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 11:14:45 GMT -5
And Stanton has every reason to want to stay in Miami for the next 8-10 years, given how consistently committed they are to winning.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 11:23:45 GMT -5
And Stanton has every reason to want to stay in Miami for the next 8-10 years, given how consistently committed they are to winning. Last I checked, it's not his decision to make until after the 2017 season.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 12:15:59 GMT -5
And Stanton has every reason to want to stay in Miami for the next 8-10 years, given how consistently committed they are to winning. Last I checked, it's not his decision to make until after the 2017 season. It's not his decision whether or not to accept this hypothetical long term deal you're talking about? Huh, I guess the union really caved on the last CBA.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 12:52:35 GMT -5
Last I checked, it's not his decision to make until after the 2017 season. It's not his decision whether or not to accept this hypothetical long term deal you're talking about? Huh, I guess the union really caved on the last CBA. Chill out, pal. That's not what I said and you know it. You said, "Sure Miami says they want to build around him, but they cant realistically pay him the contract he deserves." I responded, "They can, and they will try to do so." Whether he agrees this offseason or not to a proposed long-term deal, MIA controls his rights for two more years, and the organization has stated publicly that they not currently inclined to move him elsewhere. Given their young building blocks and their lack of large contracts (they only have three $5mm+ contract years - Salty (2), G.Jones (1) - committed), there is no reason for MIA to rush to offload Stanton to another team. Yelich/Ozuna are controlled through 2019, Fernandez/Ramos through 2018 and Alvarez/Eovaldi/Cishek through 2017, They will likely have Heaney in the rotation and DeSclafani in the bullpen full-time next year. This team is in very good shape for the next couple of years and do not need another teardown. At worst, they'll reassess after next season.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 15:31:16 GMT -5
Actually, I didn't say that, Semperfi did (oops! ). But, since you dismissed it out of hand, I felt the need to point out that while, sure, they can afford it and claim that is their priority, there's a second part to that question which is: does Stanton want to spend the bulk of his career playing for Jeff Loria? That is the question I was addressing. We both know there's a good chance he doesn't, and would not be amenable to an extension. These same reports you seem to put so much stock also say that the Marlins are not convinced he will sign (if you believe one part you must believe the other ) And if the Marlins make him a substantial offer, and he turns it down, that means he's gone in two years and the likelihood of him being traded goes up by a lot. And of course, this isn't even taking into account the Red Sox obvious need for the player and the fact that they have the assets to get him. So, just thought I'd point out that the notion that acquiring Stanton is just some ridiculous pipe dream is a fallacious one. Cheers. P.S. If you believe a major league team every time they say publicly that they are "not inclined to do" something, you're going to live a very confused existence.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 19, 2014 15:44:33 GMT -5
We both know there's a good chance he doesn't, and would not be amenable to an extension. These same reports you seem to put so much stock also say that the Marlins are not convinced he will sign (if you believe one part you must believe the other ) And if the Marlins make him a substantial offer, and he turns it down, that means he's gone in two years and the likelihood of him being traded goes up by a lot. We both don't know that he doesn't want to remain in MIA long-term. I have seen or heard nothing that would substantiate your claim that Stanton wants to leave MIA. He's an LA kid, so my best guess would be that, if he wanted to leave (and, again, we don't know that he does), he'd want to go home to California. I would agree with you that, if they make him an offer and turns it down, the likelihood of him being traded at some point increases substantially. However, I would not agree that they would trade him this offseason - two years before free agency, with a team that looks like a playoff team next year, assuming Fernandez comes back healthy. MIA would get plenty of value for him next offseason, if they wished to trade him (and, again, there is no evidence that they wish to do so). White whale, indeed.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 19, 2014 16:42:06 GMT -5
We both don't know that he doesn't want to remain in MIA long-term. I have seen or heard nothing that would substantiate your claim that Stanton wants to leave MIA. He's an LA kid, so my best guess would be that, if he wanted to leave (and, again, we don't know that he does), he'd want to go home to California. I would agree with you that, if they make him an offer and turns it down, the likelihood of him being traded at some point increases substantially. However, I would not agree that they would trade him this offseason - two years before free agency, with a team that looks like a playoff team next year, assuming Fernandez comes back healthy. MIA would get plenty of value for him next offseason, if they wished to trade him (and, again, there is no evidence that they wish to do so). White whale, indeed. I wish you were wrong, as I've been on the Stanton bandwagon for quite a while, but the point about how well they're positioned for the next 2 years is the main issue. The Marlins have made a habit of going through stretches of: buy, sell, rebuild, repeat. Seems like they're nearing the end of the 'rebuild' phase, so even though Stanton is set to make a record 5yr arb contract, I can really see them buying big this winter. Wouldn't be surprised if they're payroll went up 100mil/yr by next season. Then they can decide to sell Stanton at some point in 2016 if they aren't in contention. I can't imagine them giving Stanton a big extension though. When was the last time they gave a homegrown player a big extension (more than the 4 years Josh Johnson got)?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2014 16:52:01 GMT -5
We both know there's a good chance he doesn't, and would not be amenable to an extension. These same reports you seem to put so much stock also say that the Marlins are not convinced he will sign (if you believe one part you must believe the other ) And if the Marlins make him a substantial offer, and he turns it down, that means he's gone in two years and the likelihood of him being traded goes up by a lot. We both don't know that he doesn't want to remain in MIA long-term. I have seen or heard nothing that would substantiate your claim that Stanton wants to leave MIA. He's an LA kid, so my best guess would be that, if he wanted to leave (and, again, we don't know that he does), he'd want to go home to California. I would agree with you that, if they make him an offer and turns it down, the likelihood of him being traded at some point increases substantially. However, I would not agree that they would trade him this offseason - two years before free agency, with a team that looks like a playoff team next year, assuming Fernandez comes back healthy. MIA would get plenty of value for him next offseason, if they wished to trade him (and, again, there is no evidence that they wish to do so). White whale, indeed. I'm as guilty as anybody else when it comes to thinking up trade packages for Stanton that would entice the Marlins without making the Red Sox fan in me cringe, but I agree with your larger point that it's doubtful that the Marlins deal Stanton soon. The Marlins will probably win between 75 to 80 games this season and they do have some help coming in. You mentioned Heaney, I believe, and of course Fernandez is supposed to come back. They have a young team that should be improving and no crippling contracts, so 2015 should be their year to seriously compete. And if they do, there's no reason to think that Stanton is available in this upcoming offseason. I think the Fish would need to totally tank in 2015 for it to be a possibility that Stanton gets dealt. If they're, say 45-65 at the trade deadline next season, I'm sure they'd consider it. Likely they'll be near or better than they are right now. If that's the case, Stanton is staying for 2015, and if the Marlins are close enough to contention that they feel they have a strong shot at being competitive in 2016, then Stanton won't be dealt in the offseason of 2015-2016 either. It's no sure thing that the Marlins are trading Stanton. I do doubt that Stanton will remain in Miami beyond 2016, and I'm sure we all know (including Stanton) that there's no way that Loria can offer him anywhere near the amount of money that his hometown Dodgers can offer him. Likely, he's dealt in the offseason of 2015-2016 if the Marlins don't look that good for 2016, or he's dealt by 7/31/16 if the Marlins aren't as good as they hope to be, or he walks as a free agent, leaving behind a competitive team who took their best shot at winning in 2015-2016. In those scenarios, I'd be hesitant to give up much for him given such a short time with him and no guarantee of an extension - why would he agree to a trade if there isn't an extension in the neighborhood of $250 - $300 million? Would the Sox spend that much $ on him anyway? The Sox certainly match up with the Marlins in various trade scenarios, but the timing probably isn't right for Miami, and the Dodgers could certainly match up down the road as well or simply wait for his free agency. If he does make it to free agency, then you know the Sox will have interest but they'd be going against NY and even more prominently, the Dodgers.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 19, 2014 16:56:31 GMT -5
Of course, it's simply common sense that any player dedicated to winning wouldn't want to spend their career with a team that has spent money once in over a decade, and in that one instance blew the team up after one year, but it's always good to have actual objective evidence, I feel you, that's why I'm here to help. You may find this piece by respected national writer Jon Heyman quite illuminating: www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/24653369/marlins-dont-seem-optimistic-on-long-term-deal-for-giancarlo-stantonAllow me to highlight some of the more relevant passages: So, again, there's a good chance he would not be amenable to an extension (I did not say it was certain or that he "wants out of Miami" as you say I did, oops! ). So, we've established that. And we agree that if he were to turn down an extension, there's a very good chance he is traded at some point. Ergo, the chances of him being traded, be it this winter (when they would get a king's ransom) or after 2015 when he's only under control for one more year, are actually pretty good. Not a "white whale" but rather a realistic opportunity that fans are more than justified in speculating over . I feel we may have veered a bit too far off course as this thread is intended for discussion of the 2015 Red Sox roster, not the 2015 Marlins! But if there's anything else I can clear up for you with regards to this subject, I would gladly do so, and I suggest we do that in a more appropriate setting such as the Giancarlo Stanton thread (!) that already exists in the Trade Proposal Subforum.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 19, 2014 18:32:06 GMT -5
I have a couple of questions for all those people who want to trade for Giancarlo Stanton:
(1) If the Red Sox did manage to acquire Stanton, how would they fill the rest of the roster? This is a team with a lot of holes. How exactly would you propose to field the rest of a contending team?
(2) What do you propose to do after the 2016 season when Stanton departs as a free agent? Stanton is a generational talent who is going to hit free agency at age 27; what motivation could he possibly have to sign an extension prior to that?
(3) Finally, if the Red Sox are able to sign him after 2016 (and it will take $250 million over a decade), how will they field teams with in 2017 and 2018? As I see it, a trade for Giancarlo Stanton (or any other big star) only works if you have at least a few cost controlled players to cushion the cost of his immense contract. The Red Sox don't currently have those kind of players, and, if they trade for Stanton they won't have enough remaining elite prospects that might turn into those kind of players.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 4:48:31 GMT -5
I'm not sure how it hurts us for 2015. We're not trading Pedroia ans Ortiz for him.
And they wouldn't acquire without either an extension in place or an understanding that he will sign one , a la the Adrian Gonzalez trade.
I hope I have quelled your concerns.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 20, 2014 11:37:51 GMT -5
Let me see if I understand.
(1) The Marlins are going to provide the Red Sox a window of negotiation even though they aren't desperate to make a trade and it isn't in their best interests to do so.
(2) Giancarlo Stanton is going to accept a deal with the Red Sox during that window rather than wait two years and have 30 teams bidding.
(3) And then the Red Sox are going to cruise to the World Series without a CF, SS, 3B or a starting rotation.
Yeah, you've addressed my concerns.
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