|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 5, 2014 14:36:18 GMT -5
Hoopsrumors posted a nice concise list of teams that can't trade their 2014 1st rounder this year and why. About 1/2 of the teams are allowed to trade their picks this year. Milwaukee, Orlando, Philadelphia, Boston, Cleveland and Utah are all currently in the lottery (and have a shot at a Top 5 pick) so good luck prying one from them (Boston, actually, might be the most likely to give theirs up but it would have to be for a star and I just don't see any of those being available).
That leaves Denver, Charlotte, Chicago, Atlanta, Toronto, Phoenix (multiple picks), Houston, San Antonio and Oklahoma City as your targets if you're looking to get into the middle to back end of this years' draft using one of your assets.
Of course, the Stepian rule does NOT prevent a team from making a pick and then trading it after the draft.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 5, 2014 16:01:08 GMT -5
I'm a fan of getting future unprotected firsts more then a first now that's later in the round.
Not sure who we're going to matchup with trade wise, especially if the Lakers will trade Gasol. If at all possible, I'd like to pry Monroe away from Detroit. Not expecting a pick from them though.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 6, 2014 16:25:05 GMT -5
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 7, 2014 22:03:39 GMT -5
Hate seeing the W, especially against another lottery team, but I love seeing Sullys monster numbers.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 8, 2014 9:01:24 GMT -5
Danny needs to deal now. Strip the roster of Green and Bass. Sully and Rondo may still win games but at least they'd be guys who are part of the future helping out.
The good thing is its a deep draft and lots of very good players go in the top 10. Pierce and Dirk back to back years ago. Drummond recently. Lots of examples and this draft has plenty of keg it scorers who will go 5-10. Rodney Hood will be a great NBA scorer.
|
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Feb 8, 2014 15:50:51 GMT -5
The good thing is its a deep draft and lots of very good players go in the top 10. Pierce and Dirk back to back years ago. Drummond recently. Lots of examples and this draft has plenty of keg it scorers who will go 5-10. Rodney Hood will be a great NBA scorer. This draft is stacked with good SF who most likely will be able to score in the NBA who'll go in the middle to late first round. Hood, Warren, Jeremi Grant out of Syracuse, Kyle Anderson out of UCLA, Stauskas. There are many options, at least one of them will pan out. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 8, 2014 19:03:34 GMT -5
Let's hope Danny drafts the one who does! I want Hood, but Danny will probably want a White guy to relive his glory days... Jk absolutely no evidence of that unless you count KO
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 9, 2014 9:53:19 GMT -5
Read recently that Boston was high on Antetokounmpo but that they went for KO instead. Damn!
|
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Feb 9, 2014 15:48:15 GMT -5
Giannis is a fun story and he does have a massive potential, but he's still just damn raw and his numbers are nice because seemingly everyone else in the same draft is sucking thus far. The past draft was a total crapshoot and I'd be surprised if even half the 1st round picks are still rotation players in the NBA in a couple of years. You know it's a funky year when Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely get robbed of a ROY.
|
|
|
|
Post by sierram363 on Feb 9, 2014 16:22:42 GMT -5
Got it from basketball reference, Kelly isn't doing too bad compared to his fellow draft mates.
Win Shares (I'm assuming it's similar to WAR)
#1 Tim Hardaway Jr. - 2.3
Tied #7 Kelly Olynyk - 1.0
#8 Giannis Antetokounmpo - 0.8
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 9, 2014 16:58:02 GMT -5
Giannis is a fun story and he does have a massive potential, but he's still just damn raw and his numbers are nice because seemingly everyone else in the same draft is sucking thus far. The past draft was a total crapshoot and I'd be surprised if even half the 1st round picks are still rotation players in the NBA in a couple of years. You know it's a funky year when Tim Hardaway Jr. will likely get robbed of a ROY. Yeah, Giannis certainly looks like he could be a star, but he's still mostly a long, athletic dude who's yet to develop the refined skills needed to really succeed as more than a role player. I mean, we were saying the same things about Anthony Randolph a few years ago, but he never took that leap and ended up as just another guy. Olynyk doesn't have much of a ceiling, but if he improves his shot he'll at least be a stretch-four. His defense is never going to amount to much with his lack of length and agility, but he looks like at least a useful role player, which is more than you an say about most of that draft. |
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 14, 2014 9:55:06 GMT -5
Now that we've reached the All Star Weekend, I'd expect teams to really get down to negotiating. With that in mind, who do we expect to get traded by Boston? I think what Danny might have to decide is whether to go for best value in trading his assets (which, in many cases, won't be until AFTER the season when more teams could be looking to upgrade their rosters) or to consider the depletion of depth (increasing their chances at a better draft pick) as part of any compensation and just unload players (and contracts) for the best offer.
As long as Ainge doesn't hold out for a 1st rounder, I think they can get out from under Bass' contract (again, depletion of depth would benefit Boston here). Bogans could likely be out as well (most likely as an add on to match contracts). Not sure about Humphries. I definitely thik Rondo, Green, Bradley and Wallace will "survive" the deadline.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 14, 2014 10:07:59 GMT -5
Hard to say, won't surprise if Danny can't make a big trade. A lot of sellers and not too many buyers. NBA trades are hard with salary restrictions and the trade landscape has changes a great deal.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 14, 2014 10:29:46 GMT -5
One scenario I've thrown around with myself, would be for Danny to get Phoenix to take on Green and Bass for Okafor's expiring contract. Maybe even throw in the Doc first rounder. It works numbers wise because Phoenix is under the cap. Green and Bass both fit their style and lineup. Instantly makes the team worse and clears future cap space, which, I'd be in no rush to use if I were Danny.
With that trade, after this season the Celtics would drop the following salary:
Humphrey $12.00m
Green $ 8.70m
Bass. $ 6.45m
Bogans. $ 5.05m
Bayless. $ 3.13m
Total salary free $35.33 million. That puts them around $23m under the cap. Resigning Bradley will take between 6-9m of that depending who you believe. So it leave 14-17m minus the 2 first rd picks for free agency. So final free agent numbers available still isn't Max territory.
I would not rush to use that money just to use it. So is there any point to a salary dump with guys like Bass and Green? Is it worth it just to make the team worse now even though the flexibility you create doesn't much matter.
Truthfully, this team won't have much flexibility salary wise until Wallace is gone. That contract is be of the worst in the NBA right now because he's completely useless as a player.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 14, 2014 11:10:20 GMT -5
I'm not throwing in a 1st rounder to get rid of that salary. If Pho is getting both Green and Bass, we should be getting one of their 4 firsts. Green's contract is tough but he's talented enough that he shouldn't JUST be a salary dump at all costs.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 14, 2014 12:11:57 GMT -5
Pheonix isn't doing that deal-- they have tons of salary flexibility going forward and won't want to blow it on averagish players like Green/Bass when they might be able to get a better talent.
|
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 14, 2014 12:32:09 GMT -5
Of the players that are being mentioned in rumors, Gasol is the only one that seems to make any sense for Phoenix. I don't see "our guys" being that much (or any) better than Frye/Morris/Morris/Plumlee.
Charlotte makes the most sense for Bass. Not sure we can get a 1st rounder out of it, though. Either for Sessions straight up or add in Bogans to get Gordan's ending deal (I think we'd still be under the luxury Cap). I'd love to take on both and dump Wallace on them as the price for acquiring Bass but we're going to have to sweeten that (and Danny, for good reason, doesn't want to give up picks).
|
|
|
|
Post by Don Caballero on Feb 14, 2014 15:33:57 GMT -5
I'm not throwing in a 1st rounder to get rid of that salary. If Pho is getting both Green and Bass, we should be getting one of their 4 firsts. Green's contract is tough but he's talented enough that he shouldn't JUST be a salary dump at all costs. It should, that contract was awful at the signing and it hasn't gotten any more excusable since. Plus, McD is already a better GM than Danny I'm afraid. |
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Feb 14, 2014 16:57:40 GMT -5
I think you have a better chance at value this offseason if you want to trade him. More teams looking to improve their roster can lead to more teams willing to make a mistake.
I want those 1st rounders and I'm not paying someone to take a 16 ppg player, even if it's an overpaid and inconsistent one, not at this stage.
|
|
|
|
Post by bmitchsox on Feb 16, 2014 13:56:59 GMT -5
No sense in giving up a great scorer, although somewhat inconsistent, and not get a 1st rd pick back. Giving our own 1st to get rid of him.. not happening. Danny knows Green has value, he's just waiting for the right deal. I think Bass definitely get moved before the deadline, because we need to do SOMETHING if we want to get a bottom 5 pick. I could see Bass, Hump and a Celtics 2nd for Okafor and the Pacers 1st. Maybe Green to SA for their '15 1st and Diaw, filler.
|
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 16, 2014 19:59:18 GMT -5
So Bradley is being shut down off a bit because of a second ankle injury. His injuries may not be chronic in nature, but at some point you're injury prone until you can prove otherwise. I don't see how you can give him more then $5-6m per year on an extension. He can't stay healthy.
|
|
|
|
Post by xxdamgoodxx on Feb 16, 2014 20:03:50 GMT -5
The only guy that you give up a first-rounder to trade is Wallace, everyone else you have to get some return for. In my mind, I want to come out of this deadline with a)One more first round pick and b)A roster more prone to losing. There has been some talk of the Celtics maybe becoming buyers because of the alleged surplus of sellers but I don't think that it's the right move in any reasonable circumstance. Even if you could get a good player like a Larry Sanders-type or an Aaron Afflalo-type for relatively little, would it end up being worth the loss of franchise-changing talent as a result of your pick sliding? The C's will drop most of the games on their upcoming west-coast swing, which should get them to 4th or so in the lottery standings, but they need to make a move in order to free up future salary and to improve their draft status.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 16, 2014 22:04:37 GMT -5
So Bradley is being shut down off a bit because of a second ankle injury. His injuries may not be chronic in nature, but at some point you're injury prone until you can prove otherwise. I don't see how you can give him more then $5-6m per year on an extension. He can't stay healthy. Um, they're actively trying to lose games this season, and shutting down a key player for a couple weeks due to a sprained ankle seems like a great way of reaching that goal. |
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Feb 17, 2014 9:59:08 GMT -5
So you think he'd be playing if they were a top team? That would be believable, if there wasn't a comeback and subsequent injury. I also don't think a guy like Bradley would go for such a thing to put more doubt about his ability to be healthy around the NBA. It's going to cost him money.
If nothing else, there's no chance I give him a big contract this offseason without letting him explore his market. It's less of a risk then just giving him big money. The Celts are in great position with him. Right to match any reasonable offer and plenty of salary space after the season for him. Not for other FAs but for him they do. Sure he may choose yo go on a one year make good deal to try and hit UFA. I'd rather that then a longterm big dollar deal.
I'm just surprised you don't think injuries hurt his market value.
|
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Feb 17, 2014 11:55:56 GMT -5
Ainge is definitely going to let him explore his market-- it's why they didn't sign him to an extension and are comfortable going to RFA. I just happen to think his market will be in the $8m range, considering his youth and upside.
I just don't think he's been all that injured. There's what, the pre-draft ankle injury, the shoulders (which haven't bothered him since), and now these two sprains, right? Unless there's ligament damage to the ankle (there might be, but it hasn't been reported), it just doesn't seem like a big deal. There's nothing chronic or high-risk and Bradley is young.
|
|
