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Post by mordecai67 on Dec 2, 2013 8:33:30 GMT -5
Is Brentz considered a prospect? Could he competently field right field at Fenway? How many at bats does he get (if any) in the big leagues in 2014? Discuss. Thank You.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 2, 2013 9:37:30 GMT -5
Shooting himself in the leg this year didn't help his career. He seemed to have fallen into disfavor with the brass because of it. But he could recover since RH power hitters are in demand. He's got to cut down on his Ks, though, and develop better pitch recognition. While he hit .264 this season at Portland, his OBP was not impressive.
Bryce is soon to turn 25 and will have to work hard in 2014 to improve his standing as a prospect. Could be a piece in a trade at the WM or during the offseason.
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Post by mordecai67 on Dec 2, 2013 13:26:26 GMT -5
Shooting yourself is never a good idea. I forgot about that. I did not realize he was 25. Maybe more of a suspect than a prospect? You got to love right handed power though.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 2, 2013 14:04:16 GMT -5
He's probably a 25-30 HR guy in the majors. That's with a full-time gig. The issue is what else he brings to the table. Not much OBP to speak of, and he may not be suited to rightfield in Fenway. He has the arm for it, but he may not have the range or the first step. I still wouldn't count the guy out. Last year was a mess for him and he still raked enough to push his OPS to near .800. He's got a true power swing but it's not tempered with good pitch selection at this point. He still could end up being a fifth outfielder at some point this year, covering right and left on occasion.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 2, 2013 15:30:47 GMT -5
Corner outfield is my one area of most concern.
I do think at bats will be available this year and while Bryce isn't at the top of the depth chart he is certainly within striking distance.
He is certainly streaky, but when he is on a roll, he hits everything with authority.
He needs to make a leap in consistency and bop however.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 2, 2013 16:00:14 GMT -5
Shooting himself in the leg this year didn't help his career. He seemed to have fallen into disfavor with the brass because of it. But he could recover since RH power hitters are in demand. He's got to cut down on his Ks, though, and develop better pitch recognition. While he hit .264 this season at Portland, his OBP was not impressive. Bryce is soon to turn 25 and will have to work hard in 2014 to improve his standing as a prospect. Could be a piece in a trade at the WM or during the offseason. Why do you say this? I didn't follow his situation too closely, but I don't remember seeing anything on this.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 2, 2013 16:05:52 GMT -5
The one indication I saw that management wasn't happy with Brentz was that he wasn't given an invite to major league spring training. As a player who had made it to Triple-A the previous season, he certainly would have been in line for an invite.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2013 16:14:14 GMT -5
Another Josh Reddick, except he'll strike out more.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 2, 2013 16:50:33 GMT -5
Would be happy having him take Gomes' place on the 2015 roster and fill-in as a backup for Gomes in 2013 in case of injury.
It is surprising how much his stock has fallen despite a solid season and strong power numbers.
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Post by jmei on Dec 2, 2013 17:20:33 GMT -5
Another Josh Reddick, except he'll strike out more. Also, Reddick is probably one of the five best right fielders in baseball, while Brentz is probably a below-average right fielder in Fenway. I think Brentz's Steamer projection for 2014 is pretty reasonable: .251/.298/.416 (91 wRC+), with strikeout and walk rates similar to those he put up in Pawtucket last year and a couple tics less power. With slightly below-average defense in a corner outfield spot, that makes him just above a replacement-level player. I'd be inclined to put him below Alex Hassan (100 wRC+ Steamer projection) and maybe even Alex Castellanos (92 wRC+ Steamer projection) in my personal corner outfield depth chart, which means he probably won't make the majors next year outside of an emergency situation. I've never really been a fan of Brentz. He has power, but that's all he provides-- he also strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't add baserunning value, and plays below-average defense at a position low on the defensive spectrum. The strikeouts are most concerning to me-- he's struck out at a 24.8% clip over his minor league career and 24.6% in 2013, which is much too high for a hitter with few other redeeming characteristics. I could see him carving out a career similar to Laynce Nix or Tyler Colvin-- a few BABIP-driven good years, but mostly an up-and-down platoon guy who bounces around a couple of organizations. Ideally, he's trade bait headed to some non-sabermetrically-inclined team that can dream on his power.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 2, 2013 17:26:15 GMT -5
Another Josh Reddick, except he'll strike out more. Also, Reddick is probably one of the five best right fielders in baseball, while Brentz is probably a below-average right fielder in Fenway. I think Brentz's Steamer projection for 2014 is pretty reasonable: .251/.298/.416 (91 wRC+), with strikeout and walk rates similar to those he put up in Pawtucket last year and a couple tics less power. With slightly below-average defense in a corner outfield spot, that makes him just above a replacement-level player. I'd be inclined to put him below Alex Hassan (100 wRC+ Steamer projection) and maybe even Alex Castellanos (92 wRC+ Steamer projection) in my personal corner outfield depth chart, which means he probably won't make the majors next year outside of an emergency situation. I've never really been a fan of Brentz. He has power, but that's all he provides-- he also strikes out too much, doesn't walk enough, doesn't add baserunning value, and plays below-average defense at a position low on the defensive spectrum. The strikeouts are most concerning to me-- he's struck out at a 24.8% clip over his minor league career and 24.6% in 2013, which is much too high for a hitter with few other redeeming characteristics. I could see him carving out a career similar to Laynce Nix or Tyler Colvin-- a few BABIP-driven good years, but mostly an up-and-down platoon guy who bounces around a couple of organizations. Ideally, he's trade bait headed to some non-sabermetrically-inclined team that can dream on his power.Like Hanigan... And yeah, I failed to mention Reddick's defense. I just can't stand those kind of bats. It's why I don't want Salty back and why I want NOTHING to do with AJ Pierzynski. Someday, pitchers will realize that they can just throw every pitch a foot off the strike zone and they'll still never walk.
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Post by pedey on Dec 2, 2013 18:07:12 GMT -5
The one indication I saw that management wasn't happy with Brentz was that he wasn't given an invite to major league spring training. As a player who had made it to Triple-A the previous season, he certainly would have been in line for an invite. I think spring training started shortly after he shot himself in the leg, so he wasn't yet healthy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2013 18:10:46 GMT -5
Shooting himself in the leg this year didn't help his career. He seemed to have fallen into disfavor with the brass because of it. But he could recover since RH power hitters are in demand. He's got to cut down on his Ks, though, and develop better pitch recognition. While he hit .264 this season at Portland, his OBP was not impressive. Bryce is soon to turn 25 and will have to work hard in 2014 to improve his standing as a prospect. Could be a piece in a trade at the WM or during the offseason. Why do you say this? I didn't follow his situation too closely, but I don't remember seeing anything on this. James' point about the NRI is probably the only evidence of that, but that may have had more to do with him not being ready to go from day one of ST (he didn't come back until the middle of March). It certainly wasn't costing him call-ups during the season or anything, and if not getting the NRI was because of some "disfavor", I doubt it'll have anything to do with how the club treats him going forward. The team gave noted malcontents Jason Place and Jonathan Egan every chance. Brentz doesn't come close to those guys in off-field issues, so I can't see it being an issue going forward. As for mordecai67's question about Brentz being a prospect or not, first of all, welcome to the forum. I'd suggest checking out his player page and whatever writeups we've had on the News Page about him. We've got a lot more information here on the site than just the forum (not that I'm knocking the forum).
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Post by oleary25 on Dec 2, 2013 18:28:35 GMT -5
You guys do realize that not every player on a team will be able ideal with strike zone discipline. That being said he can flat out hit homers and drive in runs. WMB & Him will never lead the league in obp but each could hit 25-30 homers and drive in 85-100 ribs for mlb minimum money.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 2, 2013 20:20:22 GMT -5
Clay Davenport's projections (which appear to be done using an old version of PECOTA):
.263 / .317 / .463 (.264 EqA), Brentz. .255 / .358 / .406 (.268 EqA), Hassan .225 / .297 / .384 (.253 EqA), Castellanos
I think I'll hunt all of these down and put them in the main off-season thread, along with Steamer projections converted to EqA.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 2, 2013 21:58:18 GMT -5
You guys do realize that not every player on a team will be able ideal with strike zone discipline. That being said he can flat out hit homers and drive in runs. WMB & Him will never lead the league in obp but each could hit 25-30 homers and drive in 85-100 ribs for mlb minimum money. Except that you can't do that without at least a decent approach at the plate. You're correct that not every player has to be Wade Boggs, but they can't be Wily Mo Pena, either. A lot of the importance of walks and strikeouts goes beyond the value of the events themselves. It has to do with the counts that the hitter is putting himself in, and the pitches that he's going to see as a result. While a player with a .310 OBP and 30 home runs can be theoretically be valuable, the reality is that very few of those players actually exist, because hitting for power and getting on base are, if not exactly the same skill, very closely intertwined. And when I look at the K/BB numbers that Brentz put up at AAA last year, I have seriously doubts about if that 25-30 home run power is ever going to play in the majors. (WMB is somewhat of a different story, though not different enough for my tastes...)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 2, 2013 22:14:42 GMT -5
You guys do realize that not every player on a team will be able ideal with strike zone discipline. That being said he can flat out hit homers and drive in runs. WMB & Him will never lead the league in obp but each could hit 25-30 homers and drive in 85-100 ribs for mlb minimum money. Except that you can't do that without at least a decent approach at the plate. You're correct that not every player has to be Wade Boggs, but they can't be Wily Mo Pena, either. A lot of the importance of walks and strikeouts goes beyond the value of the events themselves. It has to do with the counts that the hitter is putting himself in, and the pitches that he's going to see as a result. While a player with a .310 OBP and 30 home runs can be theoretically be valuable, the reality is that very few of those players actually exist, because hitting for power and getting on base are, if not exactly the same skill, very closely intertwined. And when I look at the K/BB numbers that Brentz put up at AAA last year, I have seriously doubts about if that 25-30 home run power is ever going to play in the majors. (WMB is somewhat of a different story, though not different enough for my tastes...) Or, we can just do this: Players in the majors last year who had 25+ HR, 85+ RBI (let's pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter), and an OBP below .310: Pedro Alvarez: 36 HR, 100 RBI, .296 OBP Alfonso Soriano: 34 HR, 101 RBI, .302 OBP Mark Trumbo: 34 HR, 100 RBI, .294 OBP And that's it. If you go up to .320 OBP, you add Adam Dunn and Adam Jones. In 2012, you're talking Granderson (43/106/.319), Reddick (32/85/.305), Trumbo (32/95/.317), Ike Davis (32/90/.308), Alvarez (30/85/.317), Garrett Jones (27/86/.317). So yeah, you're counting on them to do something that like, 5 guys in MLB are able to do each year? Not sure about that.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 2, 2013 23:20:37 GMT -5
Worse than that, all those guys had better K/BB numbers in the minors than Brentz does.
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danr
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Post by danr on Dec 3, 2013 3:51:22 GMT -5
Anytime a major league player displays a weakness, or an inability to lay off pitches outside the strike zone, major league pitchers will exploit that weakness for as long as it remains one, or for as long as the batter remains in the majors.
Look what happened to Bradley this past season. In the very first game of the season he showed an inability to handle the inside pitch. He saw a whole lot of inside pitches after that, and soon he was at Pawtucket.
Josh Reddick can hit a lot of HRs, and he may be the best defensive RF in the game, but his strike zone judgment must improve if he is going to have much of a career.
It is hard to overestimate the negative impact on a player's major league potential of having an obvious weakness.
Almost all players have weaknesses when they begin their careers, or have weaknesses that are exposed at the higher levels. Those who succeed learn how to overcome them. But they have a limited time in which to do that.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 3, 2013 6:40:36 GMT -5
Except that you can't do that without at least a decent approach at the plate. You're correct that not every player has to be Wade Boggs, but they can't be Wily Mo Pena, either. A lot of the importance of walks and strikeouts goes beyond the value of the events themselves. It has to do with the counts that the hitter is putting himself in, and the pitches that he's going to see as a result. While a player with a .310 OBP and 30 home runs can be theoretically be valuable, the reality is that very few of those players actually exist, because hitting for power and getting on base are, if not exactly the same skill, very closely intertwined. And when I look at the K/BB numbers that Brentz put up at AAA last year, I have seriously doubts about if that 25-30 home run power is ever going to play in the majors. (WMB is somewhat of a different story, though not different enough for my tastes...) Or, we can just do this: Players in the majors last year who had 25+ HR, 85+ RBI (let's pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter), and an OBP below .310: Pedro Alvarez: 36 HR, 100 RBI, .296 OBP Alfonso Soriano: 34 HR, 101 RBI, .302 OBP Mark Trumbo: 34 HR, 100 RBI, .294 OBP And that's it. If you go up to .320 OBP, you add Adam Dunn and Adam Jones. In 2012, you're talking Granderson (43/106/.319), Reddick (32/85/.305), Trumbo (32/95/.317), Ike Davis (32/90/.308), Alvarez (30/85/.317), Garrett Jones (27/86/.317). So yeah, you're counting on them to do something that like, 5 guys in MLB are able to do each year? Not sure about that. I completely agree that Brentz' strike zone judgment is a serious problem, and that he is a long-shot prospect. But why bpther to "pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter"? Last year, 28 guys hit 25 hrs. 9 or almost 1/3 of them had obp of 320 or lower, 6 of them 310 or lower. What determines whether they have 85 RBI is of course who's hitting in front of them. The point still stands (I think Hassan is more likely to develop power than Brentz to learn patience), but is not quite as dramatic, right?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2013 6:46:08 GMT -5
Or, we can just do this: Players in the majors last year who had 25+ HR, 85+ RBI (let's pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter), and an OBP below .310: Pedro Alvarez: 36 HR, 100 RBI, .296 OBP Alfonso Soriano: 34 HR, 101 RBI, .302 OBP Mark Trumbo: 34 HR, 100 RBI, .294 OBP And that's it. If you go up to .320 OBP, you add Adam Dunn and Adam Jones. In 2012, you're talking Granderson (43/106/.319), Reddick (32/85/.305), Trumbo (32/95/.317), Ike Davis (32/90/.308), Alvarez (30/85/.317), Garrett Jones (27/86/.317). So yeah, you're counting on them to do something that like, 5 guys in MLB are able to do each year? Not sure about that. I completely agree that Brentz' strike zone judgment is a serious problem, and that he is a long-shot prospect. But why bpther to "pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter"? Last year, 28 guys hit 25 hrs. 9 or almost 1/3 of them had obp of 320 or lower, 6 of them 310 or lower. What determines whether they have 85 RBI is of course who's hitting in front of them. The point still stands (I think Hassan is more likely to develop power than Brentz to learn patience), but is not quite as dramatic, right? Well, to play devil's advocate for a moment, you could say that guys who can't post higher OBP numbers are more likely to play for crappier teams that have to settle, thus lowering their RBI totals? I dunno, that probably has nothing to do with anything.
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Post by mordecai67 on Dec 3, 2013 15:57:33 GMT -5
@chrishatfield: I have been a lurker for years - never checked out the forum till a couple weeks ago. You guys do a great (not good) job on all of this. Bravo Maestro.
My two cents on Brentz: When the weather gets muggy and the nights get long......and the balls start to fly....I say that Bryce will MASH a few. However, he does go against OBP philosophy. Could be attractive to a Seattle or whoever needs middle of the order power.
My favorite minor league memory: I saw Papelbohn VS Francisco Liriano - Portland VS New Britain at 10AM down on a rainy May morning in New Britain. That was a great minor league game for me - And Papelbohn's ball really jumped- it was a "riser"!
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ As for mordecai67's question about Brentz being a prospect or not, first of all, welcome to the forum. I'd suggest checking out his player page and whatever writeups we've had on the News Page about him. We've got a lot more information here on the site than just the forum (not that I'm knocking the forum).
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 4, 2013 12:08:59 GMT -5
I have to say I think your all way off on Brentz. I see him as a starter for a team like the Red Sox, he has great power and a very good bat. Yes his on base skills are below average, if they weren't he'd be one of the top prospects in baseball. He had 86 SO to 20 BB last year, that's not going to keep him out of the big show. He also hit 17 HR last year in 326 AB's. When you look at the last three years 2013 was his worst year in regards to average and obs. He shot himself and didn't play a full year due to injury. I have to say that 3/4 or more of the teams in Baseball would have him playing in the majors next year in a vary big role! He has the most power in the system at this time. Brentz is one of the reason i'm not afraid to give Bradly the Cf job, if he fails, move Victorino to center and bring up Brentz's.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 4, 2013 12:23:48 GMT -5
...Or, we can just do this: Players in the majors last year who had 25+ HR, 85+ RBI (let's pretend for now that RBI have anything to do with the hitter), and an OBP below .310: Pedro Alvarez: 36 HR, 100 RBI, .296 OBP Alfonso Soriano: 34 HR, 101 RBI, .302 OBP Mark Trumbo: 34 HR, 100 RBI, .294 OBP ... Unfortunately, for Brentz, that looks like about the right set of comps. The problem is getting someone to give you that full-time gig, and letting you explore those power alleys, while ignoring the avenues for getting on base that are closer to (but not right on) home plate. Also, greetings UMass. Hope your faith in the guy gets rewarded. He's still young enough that it could happen. The power definitely plays. Where is the question.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 4, 2013 12:27:03 GMT -5
I have to say I think your all way off on Brentz. I see him as a starter for a team like the Red Sox, he has great power and a very good bat. Yes his on base skills are below average, if they weren't he'd be one of the top prospects in baseball. He had 86 SO to 20 BB last year, that's not going to keep him out of the big show. He also hit 17 HR last year in 326 AB's. When you look at the last three years 2013 was his worst year in regards to average and obs. He shot himself and didn't play a full year due to injury. I have to say that 3/4 or more of the teams in Baseball would have him playing in the majors next year in a vary big role! He has the most power in the system at this time. Brentz is one of the reason i'm not afraid to give Bradly the Cf job, if he fails, move Victorino to center and bring up Brentz's. Can't agree with your optimistic projections, umass, though I hope Brentz can somehow fulfill his potential. A .312 OBP off a .264 BA is not good. Bryce is far to anxious at the plate. This will not help him if he is promoted and facing the best of the best. Right now Brentz ranks fourth on our depth chart behind Alex Hassan and Alex Castellanos. A full year at Pawtucket working on his pitch recognition and learning patience will go a long way to advancing his career.
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