SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Ryan Kalish in 2014 (update: signed with CHC)
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2013 13:44:33 GMT -5
The only positions in the lineup that are pinned down at this point are right field (at least in the sense that Victorino will be in the starting lineup somewhere, and likely there), second base, and DH. Why on earth are we speculating about the batting order? I know this is a long shot and I know the non tender, nonetheless, I'm rooting for Kalish. He's healthy, said to be ready for spring, likely to sign a minor league contract with the Sox and he's a better all around right fielder and leadoff hitter than Victorino Here's to long shots..... excuse me? Vic was one of the best right fielders Fenway has ever seen last year. Forget the fact that Kalish hasn't even played baseball in 2 years and suffered some serious injuries to body parts that are rather important to baseball players.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 23:15:08 GMT -5
I know this is a long shot and I know the non tender, nonetheless, I'm rooting for Kalish. He's healthy, said to be ready for spring, likely to sign a minor league contract with the Sox and he's a better all around right fielder and leadoff hitter than Victorino Here's to long shots..... excuse me? Vic was one of the best right fielders Fenway has ever seen last year. Forget the fact that Kalish hasn't even played baseball in 2 years and suffered some serious injuries to body parts that are rather important to baseball players. There's also no possible way he's a better hitter than Victorino after playing an average of 31 games per season in the past three years. Shanf was one of the most valuable players in baseball last season.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 0:52:43 GMT -5
First keep in mind the long shot factor and admitted wishful thinking.
Assuming 100% health with no restrictions (a major assumption).
Kalish has incredible athleticism, well above average range and above average arm strength. He has a b's out style that is very reminiscent of a young Trot Nixon before Trot started having back issues. In terms of batting, keep in mind that almost everybody in camp will be rusty and I seriously doubt if Ryan is sitting at home watching reruns on TV right now. I think he had progressed enough as a player that as a 26 year old, he should be able to get back to where he was by spring's end.
Shane had a great year and he's a decent player but that was a career year in virtually every category and it was well above his career norms. He will be 34 and I am guessing that the list of major league players that sustained age 33 career years is rather small.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 6, 2013 0:58:31 GMT -5
First keep in mind the long shot factor and admitted wishful thinking. Assuming 100% health with no restrictions (a major assumption). Kalish has incredible athleticism, well above average range and above average arm strength. He has a b's out style that is very reminiscent of a young Trot Nixon before Trot started having back issues. In terms of batting, keep in mind that almost everybody in camp will be rusty and I seriously doubt if Ryan is sitting at home watching reruns on TV right now. I think he had progressed enough as a player that as a 26 year old, he should be able to get back to where he was by spring's end. Shane had a great year and he's a decent player but that was a career year in virtually every category and it was well above his career norms. He will be 34 and I am guessing that the list of major league players that sustained age 33 career years is rather small. Two years ago he was an even better (more productive) hitter, it wasn't really a career year.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Dec 6, 2013 2:05:58 GMT -5
First keep in mind the long shot factor and admitted wishful thinking. Assuming 100% health with no restrictions (a major assumption). Kalish has incredible athleticism, well above average range and above average arm strength. He has a b's out style that is very reminiscent of a young Trot Nixon before Trot started having back issues. In terms of batting, keep in mind that almost everybody in camp will be rusty and I seriously doubt if Ryan is sitting at home watching reruns on TV right now. I think he had progressed enough as a player that as a 26 year old, he should be able to get back to where he was by spring's end. Shane had a great year and he's a decent player but that was a career year in virtually every category and it was well above his career norms. He will be 34 and I am guessing that the list of major league players that sustained age 33 career years is rather small. Given your assumption, I would rate Kalish as the #2 best Ofer (should he get a ST invite). I would rate Victorino as a better RFer than Kalish, but Kalish over Victorino in CF. Yes he had a plus arm last time I saw him play, but that was 3 surgeries ago. The real test will be how quickly he finds his batting eye. I can't see why the Sox wouldn't give him an invite to ST. Minimal risk for a potential huge return at a position (OF) where the RS have there biggest questions both offensively and defensively following the loss of Ellsbury. Heck, I'd make sure I'd see this for myself if they give Ryan the invite.
|
|
|
Post by oleary25 on Dec 6, 2013 2:11:09 GMT -5
Look at best Kalish will show flashes of what he was. He's been hurt so frequently he's going to need time. You figure spring training. Then if that goes well Fort Myers to be assessed. Then placed in High A and so on & so forth. You figure if he flys through maybe at best he's a September call up. Mind you that's a very generous timeline. I certainly hope he resurrects his career. Like Gabe Kapler said I wouldn't bet against him.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 2:32:03 GMT -5
Shane has two peak years in his career. One year ago he was pretty bad. 2013 is not what should be expected in 2014.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 2:37:33 GMT -5
Look at best Kalish will show flashes of what he was. He's been hurt so frequently he's going to need time. You figure spring training. Then if that goes well Fort Myers to be assessed. Then placed in High A and so on & so forth. You figure if he flys through maybe at best he's a September call up. Mind you that's a very generous timeline. I certainly hope he resurrects his career. Like Gabe Kapler said I wouldn't bet against him. As far as I know he is rehabbing now. That was the gist of the last story I read where he talked about almost quitting and the support people gave him to play on. Sidenote. If you are Troy, my step son-in-law is Threedouble.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 6, 2013 6:52:39 GMT -5
Look at best Kalish will show flashes of what he was. He's been hurt so frequently he's going to need time. You figure spring training. Then if that goes well Fort Myers to be assessed. Then placed in High A and so on & so forth. You figure if he flys through maybe at best he's a September call up. Mind you that's a very generous timeline. I certainly hope he resurrects his career. Like Gabe Kapler said I wouldn't bet against him. As far as I know he is rehabbing now. That was the gist of the last story I read where he talked about almost quitting and the support people gave him to play on. To provide context, he was in a neck brace as recently as late August and was in one of those halos before that. You're not being a pessimist if you don't think he's going to be ready to play major league baseball on April 1.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 7:29:01 GMT -5
I don't disagree with that at all but if he is in fact rehabbing now then he must have the medical go ahead to do so. I looked but couldn't find the fluff piece I saw, it was mainly about thinking about quitting several times but being encouraged by those around him. A total pink hat story but in retrospect, I was under the impression that he was beginning rehab workouts. This was about 2 months ago.
I also saw a piece shortly after the last operation that basically said it went well and that he would likely be able to resume a normal career. There is a lot of room for optimism. On the other hand, there was a lot of room for optimism after the second to last surgery when he returned to the PawSox.
Once again, my caveat, long shot. I don't have him penciled in, let alone written in ink.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2013 8:52:00 GMT -5
excuse me? Vic was one of the best right fielders Fenway has ever seen last year. Forget the fact that Kalish hasn't even played baseball in 2 years and suffered some serious injuries to body parts that are rather important to baseball players. There's also no possible way he's a better hitter than Victorino after playing an average of 31 games per season in the past three years. Shanf was one of the most valuable players in baseball last season. Couldn't agree mire but he said "lead off hitter" and I dint feel like getting into the conversation. At this point, predicting anything for Kalish on a major league roster outside of Houston is foolish. Everyone understands the talent he had, but he never really made it to the majors to begin with (as an established player) so his can one predict with any real logic he will be now after all that's happened?
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Dec 6, 2013 9:22:31 GMT -5
Shane had a great year and he's a decent player but that was a career year in virtually every category and it was well above his career norms. Not necessarily. His high WAR was fueled in large part by his beyond-exceptional defensive rankings after moving to RF. His oWAR was comparable to four other seasons, and not a career best (2011, where he had a better OPS, OPS+, wRC+). His career OPS is 27 points below what he posted for us last season. Point is, we didn't get lucky or anything with Shane - we just got a solid year from him that happened to come after his one standout bad year that people tried to say indicated he was done. He's a highly valuable asset to have in right field and if he has a healthier season, he can easily post numbers similar to his career line or 2013 performance. My only concern is his switch hitting situation going forward. While there were some fun weeks watching him mash the ball right-handed, his 3/25 BB/K was pretty awful, and it seemed like if you through him a breaking ball off the plate, he was flailing at it. That's the type of thing that gets heavily exposed over a longer period of time (hey WMB!), so I don't think we should be so quick to advocate him abandoning batting left-handed against RHPs. I would rate Victorino as a better RFer than Kalish, but Kalish over Victorino in CF. That almost never happens with players. In a standard ballpark, if you're better than another outfielder in a corner, you're going to be the better bet for center. Even back in the day, Kalish was iffy as a full-time center fielder, as our scouting reports here noted. I can easily recall that cool somersault catch in Tampa and him gunning Coco Crisp out at third in Oakland and thinking, wow this guy is going to be fun to watch for years to come, but he always seemed destined for right field. I'm not sure what shape his throwing arm is in today - remember, most of his shoulder injuries have been on his right (non-throwing) arm, but his arm always erred more on "pretty good" than "absolute cannon." Without question, Victorino is the better defensive center and right fielder today, and I think the same held true years back when Kalish was healthy.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Dec 6, 2013 11:18:08 GMT -5
Am I missing something? Or did Kalish sign a minor league contract? With a whole thread devoted to him I wonder if anything is in the works.
I'm pulling for him for Comback Player of the Year.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Dec 6, 2013 16:25:47 GMT -5
That almost never happens with players. In a standard ballpark, if you're better than another outfielder in a corner, you're going to be the better bet for center. Even back in the day, Kalish was iffy as a full-time center fielder, as our scouting reports here noted. I can easily recall that cool somersault catch in Tampa and him gunning Coco Crisp out at third in Oakland and thinking, wow this guy is going to be fun to watch for years to come, but he always seemed destined for right field. I'm not sure what shape his throwing arm is in today - remember, most of his shoulder injuries have been on his right (non-throwing) arm, but his arm always erred more on "pretty good" than "absolute cannon." Without question, Victorino is the better defensive center and right fielder today, and I think the same held true years back when Kalish was healthy. Well. in this case, in this ballpark (Fenway) I respectfully disagree. Kalish's instincts and athleticism give him the edge over Victorino in CF (MHO). My memory of Kalish is that he goes back extremely well, and "in" (on fly ball/line drives) not as well. He covers more ground than Victorino (I'll through in the caveat that after his long stint on the DL his routes to balls hit in the air may lacking for several weeks). Victorino's main advantages are his experience, and his ability to come in on balls in the air. I would rate their arms approximately even (again with the caveat that Kalish reverts to his 2010 arm strength.) I don't find either Kalish or Victorino to be consistently accurate with their throws. I'm talking 85-90% Dwight Evans arm strength and 75% Dewey accuracy. They have the kind of arms that can intimidate runners from taking extra bases early in games, but will be challenged in late and close games. This is vastly more acceptable to the arms of Damon and Ellsbury. Finally, Kalish is (?) 7 years younger than Victorino? Kalish has room to improve. Victorino is not going to get any better defensively. None of Kalish's injuries were to his legs/lower body. For all intents and purposes Kalish has the wheels of a 24 yo. Shane is showing wear and tear around his core. Oblique strains and tight hammies. So on my scorecard Shane gets the nod in RF due to his savvy and experience, whereas Ryan is my choice in CF, due to his athleticism and room to improve. FWIW, I saw Ryan and Josh as competitors for RF. But I would have favored Kalish over Reddick for CF, had it not been for Ellsbury. Had it not been for the trades, FA and injuries, I suspect I'd be lobbying to put Reddick in RF, Els in LF and Kalish in CF.
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 6, 2013 17:49:30 GMT -5
Victorino is a better defender than Kalish at any position because Victorino is major league baseball player and Kalish is a unicorn.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Dec 6, 2013 18:13:00 GMT -5
That almost never happens with players. In a standard ballpark, if you're better than another outfielder in a corner, you're going to be the better bet for center. Even back in the day, Kalish was iffy as a full-time center fielder, as our scouting reports here noted. I can easily recall that cool somersault catch in Tampa and him gunning Coco Crisp out at third in Oakland and thinking, wow this guy is going to be fun to watch for years to come, but he always seemed destined for right field. I'm not sure what shape his throwing arm is in today - remember, most of his shoulder injuries have been on his right (non-throwing) arm, but his arm always erred more on "pretty good" than "absolute cannon." Without question, Victorino is the better defensive center and right fielder today, and I think the same held true years back when Kalish was healthy. Well. in this case, in this ballpark (Fenway) I respectfully disagree. Kalish's instincts and athleticism give him the edge over Victorino in CF (MHO). My memory of Kalish is that he goes back extremely well, and "in" (on fly ball/line drives) not as well. He covers more ground than Victorino (I'll through in the caveat that after his long stint on the DL his routes to balls hit in the air may lacking for several weeks). Victorino's main advantages are his experience, and his ability to come in on balls in the air. I would rate their arms approximately even (again with the caveat that Kalish reverts to his 2010 arm strength.) I don't find either Kalish or Victorino to be consistently accurate with their throws. I'm talking 85-90% Dwight Evans arm strength and 75% Dewey accuracy. They have the kind of arms that can intimidate runners from taking extra bases early in games, but will be challenged in late and close games. This is vastly more acceptable to the arms of Damon and Ellsbury. Finally, Kalish is (?) 7 years younger than Victorino? Kalish has room to improve. Victorino is not going to get any better defensively. None of Kalish's injuries were to his legs/lower body. For all intents and purposes Kalish has the wheels of a 24 yo. Shane is showing wear and tear around his core. Oblique strains and tight hammies. So on my scorecard Shane gets the nod in RF due to his savvy and experience, whereas Ryan is my choice in CF, due to his athleticism and room to improve. FWIW, I saw Ryan and Josh as competitors for RF. But I would have favored Kalish over Reddick for CF, had it not been for Ellsbury. Had it not been for the trades, FA and injuries, I suspect I'd be lobbying to put Reddick in RF, Els in LF and Kalish in CF. How are you reaching these conclusions? Kalish has played 247 pro games in CF compared to Victorino's 1,160. Looking at scouting reports and defensive metrics, Kalish has always been a stretch as a full time center fielder (DRS and UZR absolutely hated him there in a very SSS). Victorino has been a plus center fielder in his career (+13 DRS, +11.7 UZR) and his last few seasons indicate he's around average there. I also believe, even with the hamstring issues, Victorino is still a faster runner than Kalish. You need to factor in the major neck and back injuries + surgeries Kalish has had. By all accounts, and considering all of the injuries both players have endured, Victorino seems to have the edge not only in instincts and athleticism, but I believe he's also clearly faster and has the stronger arm. Kalish probably doesn't come that close to Victorino in range in RF, and I don't see anything that suggests that gap between them disappears when we move to CF. It's certainly not an experience thing. We also can't discount that Victorino had recurring hamstring/groin injuries throughout all of 2013, and yet he was still baseball's best defensive RF (or second to Parra), in large part because of his incredible range and plus throwing arm. Shane shouldn't be getting your nod in RF because he's more savvy and has more experience, he should get it because he's better. Also, I'm not sure how much you're going to see Kalish improve from when we last saw him in 2010 and 2012. His arm, range, and speed are only going to decline from here on out, perhaps significantly, and the latter two of those characteristics of his were questionable for a center fielder back when he was at his fastest. As for Kalish, Reddick, and Ellsbury, I think you'd unquestionably have to go LF Kalish, CF Ellsbury, and RF Reddick. No disrespect, but the fact you're seriously suggesting you think Kalish is a better center fielder than Ellsbury (that's just ridiculous) hints that you're approaching this Kalish vs Victorino debate with a lot of bias. Look, I love Kalish, but at best, he's now an above average corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch. Victorino is an elite corner outfielder who can play center at average-ish levels.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2013 20:33:32 GMT -5
You're making up a fantasy and calling him Kalish.
Please stop making me think negative things about the kid. We all hope he's healthy and can fulfill his promise, but it's a long shot and he's not better than Victorino at anything but having surgeries at this point.
|
|
|
Post by charliezink16 on Dec 6, 2013 21:47:53 GMT -5
Actual question: why wouldn't the Red Sox re-sign Ryan Kalish to a minor league deal? I mean they go out and acquire some AAAA OF to fill in at Pawtucket every year (Darnell McDonald in 2010, Mitch Maier 2012 just off the top of my head). How exactly do minor league contracts work? If there's little variability between the lowest & highest you can offer in a minor league deal, just give him the max. He still had more upside than any other AAAA OF you're going to find. The only way I see him going elsewhere is if he chooses to do so in search of a more reasonable MLB opportunity.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Dec 6, 2013 21:51:08 GMT -5
Kalish was always a favorite - I'm betting he won't get a major league offer and we can get him back on a minor league deal.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2013 21:59:11 GMT -5
They prob will if he doesn't get a major league offer, but after Rule 5 draft. The reason they wouldn't is if they felt they already had better options in AAA and didn't think he was worth finding PT.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 23:22:44 GMT -5
They prob will if he doesn't get a major league offer, but after Rule 5 draft. The reason they wouldn't is if they felt they already had better options in AAA and didn't think he was worth finding PT. Now that he is off the 40 man (which was the original objective) and we have our two new acquisitions on the 40 man, the Rule 5 draft is not a factor. I might be wrong but I don't believe that signing him to a minor league deal necessitates putting him back on the 40 man.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 6, 2013 23:53:18 GMT -5
You are wrong, but you're missing a piece. If Sox or anyone sign him before the Rule 5, then he's draft eligible so a team could take a flier on him. Orioles made this error with a player recently. Last year, I think.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 7, 2013 2:01:31 GMT -5
If that is the case then no non-tendered players will be signed before the 12th. That seems a bit restrictive on the rights of the players involved, I am surprised the union would be happy with that situation.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Dec 7, 2013 3:43:33 GMT -5
Well. in this case, in this ballpark (Fenway) I respectfully disagree. Kalish's instincts and athleticism give him the edge over Victorino in CF (MHO). My memory of Kalish is that he goes back extremely well, and "in" (on fly ball/line drives) not as well. He covers more ground than Victorino (I'll through in the caveat that after his long stint on the DL his routes to balls hit in the air may lacking for several weeks). Victorino's main advantages are his experience, and his ability to come in on balls in the air. I would rate their arms approximately even (again with the caveat that Kalish reverts to his 2010 arm strength.) I don't find either Kalish or Victorino to be consistently accurate with their throws. I'm talking 85-90% Dwight Evans arm strength and 75% Dewey accuracy. They have the kind of arms that can intimidate runners from taking extra bases early in games, but will be challenged in late and close games. This is vastly more acceptable to the arms of Damon and Ellsbury. Finally, Kalish is (?) 7 years younger than Victorino? Kalish has room to improve. Victorino is not going to get any better defensively. None of Kalish's injuries were to his legs/lower body. For all intents and purposes Kalish has the wheels of a 24 yo. Shane is showing wear and tear around his core. Oblique strains and tight hammies. So on my scorecard Shane gets the nod in RF due to his savvy and experience, whereas Ryan is my choice in CF, due to his athleticism and room to improve. FWIW, I saw Ryan and Josh as competitors for RF. But I would have favored Kalish over Reddick for CF, had it not been for Ellsbury. Had it not been for the trades, FA and injuries, I suspect I'd be lobbying to put Reddick in RF, Els in LF and Kalish in CF. How are you reaching these conclusions? Kalish has played 247 pro games in CF compared to Victorino's 1,160. Looking at scouting reports and defensive metrics, Kalish has always been a stretch as a full time center fielder (DRS and UZR absolutely hated him there in a very SSS). Victorino has been a plus center fielder in his career (+13 DRS, +11.7 UZR) and his last few seasons indicate he's around average there. I also believe, even with the hamstring issues, Victorino is still a faster runner than Kalish. You need to factor in the major neck and back injuries + surgeries Kalish has had. By all accounts, and considering all of the injuries both players have endured, Victorino seems to have the edge not only in instincts and athleticism, but I believe he's also clearly faster and has the stronger arm. Kalish probably doesn't come that close to Victorino in range in RF, and I don't see anything that suggests that gap between them disappears when we move to CF. It's certainly not an experience thing. We also can't discount that Victorino had recurring hamstring/groin injuries throughout all of 2013, and yet he was still baseball's best defensive RF (or second to Parra), in large part because of his incredible range and plus throwing arm. Shane shouldn't be getting your nod in RF because he's more savvy and has more experience, he should get it because he's better. Also, I'm not sure how much you're going to see Kalish improve from when we last saw him in 2010 and 2012. His arm, range, and speed are only going to decline from here on out, perhaps significantly, and the latter two of those characteristics of his were questionable for a center fielder back when he was at his fastest. As for Kalish, Reddick, and Ellsbury, I think you'd unquestionably have to go LF Kalish, CF Ellsbury, and RF Reddick. No disrespect, but the fact you're seriously suggesting you think Kalish is a better center fielder than Ellsbury (that's just ridiculous) hints that you're approaching this Kalish vs Victorino debate with a lot of bias. Look, I love Kalish, but at best, he's now an above average corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch. Victorino is an elite corner outfielder who can play center at average-ish levels. Victorinos RF is better than Kalish in RF. What is it that you don't see that convinces you that Victorino RF is better than Kalish in CF? I know the sample size is small but there is a statistical significance to indicate that Kalish has superior range in CF. The RS must have thought Kalish was CF material as 65% of the games he played for the RS in 10' and 12' were at CF. Of the 68 games Kalish started for the RS 60 were in CF. Victorino was signed to play RF. Shane is two years removed from being an everyday CFer. Hell, nobodies seen Kalish on a ball field for 2 years. As for athleticism, we can agree to disagree. To claim that Victorino is faster than Kalish today strikes me as ludicrous. The Sox need to "baseline" Kalish in ST. Once the baseline is established we will have a better understanding of where he belongs and what can be expected of him in 2014. I think an objective evaluation of Victorino and a surgically repaired Kalish would resolve the debate. I freely admit my bias for Kalish. You may wish to consider your own. I would not subscribe to the label "elite corner outfielder " to a player who makes 107 starts as a corner OFer over a 162 game season. Sort of like describing Rafael Palmeiro as an elite 1Bman circa 1999. I very much like both players, and it's fun to knit pick. But i don't see Victorino in CF under anything less than emergency circumstances. Finally. Yes, I would pick Kalish over Ellsbury in CF circa 2010. Nothing against Els and the decision would be close, but the arm factor would seal the deal four me. The RS were thinking along these lines in 2010. While Kalish was rotating at all 3 OF positions in Pawtucket the RS decided to give Jacoby some time in LF at Fenway. Bad ending to that experiment.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 7, 2013 12:49:27 GMT -5
If that is the case then no non-tendered players will be signed before the 12th. That seems a bit restrictive on the rights of the players involved, I am surprised the union would be happy with that situation. How do you figure? They're free agents. The same rules apply to every free agent - if they're signed before Rule 5, they're not protected if they're not on the 40-man. It's simple. It's not like it's unique to non-tenders, and it's not like contracts signed after Rule 5 are worth less.
|
|
|