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Ryan Kalish in 2014 (update: signed with CHC)
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Post by mattpicard on Dec 7, 2013 13:01:47 GMT -5
How are you reaching these conclusions? Kalish has played 247 pro games in CF compared to Victorino's 1,160. Looking at scouting reports and defensive metrics, Kalish has always been a stretch as a full time center fielder (DRS and UZR absolutely hated him there in a very SSS). Victorino has been a plus center fielder in his career (+13 DRS, +11.7 UZR) and his last few seasons indicate he's around average there. I also believe, even with the hamstring issues, Victorino is still a faster runner than Kalish. You need to factor in the major neck and back injuries + surgeries Kalish has had. By all accounts, and considering all of the injuries both players have endured, Victorino seems to have the edge not only in instincts and athleticism, but I believe he's also clearly faster and has the stronger arm. Kalish probably doesn't come that close to Victorino in range in RF, and I don't see anything that suggests that gap between them disappears when we move to CF. It's certainly not an experience thing. We also can't discount that Victorino had recurring hamstring/groin injuries throughout all of 2013, and yet he was still baseball's best defensive RF (or second to Parra), in large part because of his incredible range and plus throwing arm. Shane shouldn't be getting your nod in RF because he's more savvy and has more experience, he should get it because he's better. Also, I'm not sure how much you're going to see Kalish improve from when we last saw him in 2010 and 2012. His arm, range, and speed are only going to decline from here on out, perhaps significantly, and the latter two of those characteristics of his were questionable for a center fielder back when he was at his fastest. As for Kalish, Reddick, and Ellsbury, I think you'd unquestionably have to go LF Kalish, CF Ellsbury, and RF Reddick. No disrespect, but the fact you're seriously suggesting you think Kalish is a better center fielder than Ellsbury (that's just ridiculous) hints that you're approaching this Kalish vs Victorino debate with a lot of bias. Look, I love Kalish, but at best, he's now an above average corner outfielder who can play center in a pinch. Victorino is an elite corner outfielder who can play center at average-ish levels. Victorinos RF is better than Kalish in RF. What is it that you don't see that convinces you that Victorino RF is better than Kalish in CF? I know the sample size is small but there is a statistical significance to indicate that Kalish has superior range in CF. The RS must have thought Kalish was CF material as 65% of the games he played for the RS in 10' and 12' were at CF. Of the 68 games Kalish started for the RS 60 were in CF. Victorino was signed to play RF. Shane is two years removed from being an everyday CFer. Hell, nobodies seen Kalish on a ball field for 2 years. As for athleticism, we can agree to disagree. To claim that Victorino is faster than Kalish today strikes me as ludicrous. The Sox need to "baseline" Kalish in ST. Once the baseline is established we will have a better understanding of where he belongs and what can be expected of him in 2014. I think an objective evaluation of Victorino and a surgically repaired Kalish would resolve the debate. I freely admit my bias for Kalish. You may wish to consider your own. I would not subscribe to the label "elite corner outfielder " to a player who makes 107 starts as a corner OFer over a 162 game season. Sort of like describing Rafael Palmeiro as an elite 1Bman circa 1999. I very much like both players, and it's fun to knit pick. But i don't see Victorino in CF under anything less than emergency circumstances. Finally. Yes, I would pick Kalish over Ellsbury in CF circa 2010. Nothing against Els and the decision would be close, but the arm factor would seal the deal four me. The RS were thinking along these lines in 2010. While Kalish was rotating at all 3 OF positions in Pawtucket the RS decided to give Jacoby some time in LF at Fenway. Bad ending to that experiment. First of all, a friendly request regarding your posts: please work on your quoting, as I've had to edit several of your posts recently to correct the code. Your replies are appearing as part of the quote, as you're having an issue with the back-end bracket of the [/quote] code becoming removed. 1) Where is the statistical significance you mention? By all accounts, in the SSS you noted, Kalish has been horrible in CF. Victorino, in a large sample, has ranged from above average to a tick below. 2) Nearly all of Kalish's games in 2010 came for us when we had Bill Hall and Daniel Nava playing left and J.D. Drew in right. In 2012, he played CF when Nava was in left and Cody Ross was in right. That's not proving the Sox thought he was a good CF, it's the Sox putting a guy at a position because no one else starting that day could have made sense to play there. 3) I'm purely referring to Victorino's defensive contributions on the field when I call him an elite corner outfielder. I wasn't saying he's an elite overall player. If his defense in RF in 2013 can't be considered elite, I don't know what is. 4) There's a general, and statistically backed consensus that arm strength isn't as important as range in the outfield. I believe, and the numbers have backed this up to a degree, that Ellsbury has far better range in CF than Kalish, making him a superior outfielder despite a significantly worse arm. Of course, as you mentioned, we really need to see Kalish just to get an idea of were he's at with every facet of his game. With the derailed '13 season, he may need some extended time to get back on track. I love the guy and hope to see the Sox find a way to allow him to stick around. I enjoy debates like the one we're having, but, FWIW, I strongly prefer neither Kalish or Victorino need to play a significant amount of time in CF for us. Both of them are primarily RF'ers from here on out, and aside from health of course, the biggest thing Kalish needs to show people at this point is his bat. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 9, 2013 8:27:01 GMT -5
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Post by p23w on Dec 9, 2013 22:23:27 GMT -5
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 10, 2013 9:13:52 GMT -5
I'm confused by this thread. As far as I can tell, this is about a guy who a) is not on the Red Sox; and b) has a non-trivial chance of never being a productive baseball player again. Now, this makes me a little sad because I was a big, big Kalish booster back in the day, but he's had several major surgeries of the kind that are very hard to come back from at 100%, and we've yet to see him even run around the bases. I'm rooting hard for him, but he's only barely more likely to help the Sox this year than Mike Trout (for very different reasons, obviously).
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Post by awall on Dec 10, 2013 9:37:05 GMT -5
Victorino caught some balls in RF last year that literally made my jaw drop. I don't remember anyone playing RF better in the 30 or so years I have been watching the sox. I would love to see Kalish succeed, here or anywhere for that matter. He seems like a really good kid. But come on, be realistic.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2013 11:49:35 GMT -5
If that is the case then no non-tendered players will be signed before the 12th. That seems a bit restrictive on the rights of the players involved, I am surprised the union would be happy with that situation. How do you figure? They're free agents. The same rules apply to every free agent - if they're signed before Rule 5, they're not protected if they're not on the 40-man. It's simple. It's not like it's unique to non-tenders, and it's not like contracts signed after Rule 5 are worth less. Yes but they aren't free to sign minor league contracts without being put on that team's 40 man or being exposed to the Rule 5. They have gone from protected status to unprotected status. Since if Kalish came back after the 12th and signed a minor league contract, there would be no need to put him on the 40 man until next year's Rule 5 draft. I suppose the other side of that is that waiting a week isn't that big of a deal if it guarantees that you will be with the club that you want to be with. What would prevent teams from swinging deals with 40 man bubble type players and releasing them just before the draft with the promise of a resigning just after with a slight raise ? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 10, 2013 15:58:00 GMT -5
How do you figure? They're free agents. The same rules apply to every free agent - if they're signed before Rule 5, they're not protected if they're not on the 40-man. It's simple. It's not like it's unique to non-tenders, and it's not like contracts signed after Rule 5 are worth less. Yes but they aren't free to sign minor league contracts without being put on that team's 40 man. I am assuming that if Kalish came back after the 12th and signed a minor league contract, there would be no need to put him on the 40 man until next year's Rule 5 draft, OK... And those signed before Rule 5 don't "need" to be put on the 40-man either. The solution is to be good enough to get a MLB deal, right? If you're good enough that someone wants you on the 40-man roster, you'll get a deal commensurate with that value. This isn't collusion or anything (at least as compared with the rest of the system). |
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Post by Guidas on Dec 12, 2013 8:33:00 GMT -5
Hasta la vista, Ryan Kalish. I am sure he'll at least be glad to bid farewell to the Red Sox medical staff who kept telling him to "try to work through it" for major injuries that ultimately required surgery ("Hey, look Ells, - those aren't broken ribs, just a sprain. Rub some dirt on it.")
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Post by Jonathan Singer on Dec 12, 2013 8:42:30 GMT -5
Not a surprise there. He can get a better opportunity with another organization. The Red Sox medical staff really screwed him up big time. When in doubt always opt for surgery. Rest and rehab never tends to work.
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 13, 2013 10:49:24 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 7m
The Red Sox will not resign Ryan KAlish. Cubs have had some interest.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 13, 2013 12:03:08 GMT -5
Not a surprise there. He can get a better opportunity with another organization. The Red Sox medical staff really screwed him up big time. When in doubt always opt for surgery. Rest and rehab never tends to work. Anything to back that up or just a random, there-must-be-someone-to-blame Felger-like opinion? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2013 13:24:18 GMT -5
Not a surprise there. He can get a better opportunity with another organization. The Red Sox medical staff really screwed him up big time. When in doubt always opt for surgery. Rest and rehab never tends to work. Anything to back that up or just a random, there-must-be-someone-to-blame Felger-like opinion? It's pretty well documented that the first route they went with his original injury was to rehab without surgery. He eventually developed another injury during said rehab, had surgery for that, then had the surgery on the original injury that they were trying to avoid with rehab. Also there's the fact that the club basically turned over its medical staff twice since his original injury, which has also been documented. It's admittedly a bit of conjecture to conclude that he wouldn't have developed these other injuries of they'd opted for surgery for the original injury in the first place, but I personally don't think it's crazy and kind of subscribe to it a bit myself. Not with quite as much certainty as our pal Singer, but that's par for the course. :-) |
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 13, 2013 14:28:05 GMT -5
Major league players who rehabbed instead of having surgery in 2013. Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury, Buchholz. Ex-ante, which were the right decisions?
I may be a little strong but it seems to be that's its second guessing of the worst kind - sometimes people make mistakes, sometimes the right (or one of multiple right) courses of action still leads to a bad result. The circumstantial - the med staff changed, but without any indication that this was related to Kalish, of course, or that other docs would have offered a different course of treatment - is conspiratorial, to me. It reeks of thinking someone should have an opinion about everything.
It could be right. It's just unfounded without so something more - like a single doc suggesting that would have been the smarter course.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 13, 2013 14:29:22 GMT -5
Dola: in other words, surgery may have been better there but who knows if we should have known that ahead of time.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 13, 2013 19:19:27 GMT -5
He goes to the Cubs after all. The Cubs announced that they have signed outfielder Ryan Kalish to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Kalish, 25, was originally drafted by the Red Sox when Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were with Boston. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/minor-moves-kalish-baker-machado.html |
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 14, 2013 9:15:44 GMT -5
Dola: in other words, surgery may have been better there but who knows if we should have known that ahead of time. The Sox training and medical staff for most of Kalish's time here was a complete mess. Incompetent with the way it functioned or didn't function. This is one area where I actually did have inside sources indirectly related. However, Henry started personally investigating after the way some injury situations played out (see Jacoby/Beltre ribs) and some respected people walked away from a job with a major league team. It took a couple years, but there's been huge turnover in that area for the Sox. The medical staff (from trainers on up) is not the same today as it was a couple years ago. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 14, 2013 9:26:07 GMT -5
It makes total sense to me that Kalish, screwed by the Sox medical staff, is so pissed off that he decides to go to a team run by the person responsible for that medical staff.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 14, 2013 9:26:43 GMT -5
I'm really sorry to see Ryan Kalish go. I have seen him play in several stops (Greenville and in AAA), and have always thought he was going to be an excellent major leaguer. I wish him the very best, but it does sadden me that it won't be with Boston.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 14, 2013 20:06:03 GMT -5
He goes to the Cubs after all. The Cubs announced that they have signed outfielder Ryan Kalish to a minor league deal with an invitation to Major League Spring Training. Kalish, 25, was originally drafted by the Red Sox when Cubs president Theo Epstein and GM Jed Hoyer were with Boston. www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/minor-moves-kalish-baker-machado.htmlI'm other words Epstein continues to go after players he previously had a man crush on. |
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 14, 2013 20:18:19 GMT -5
In the same vein, the Sox could sign Grady Sizemore with an invite to ST.
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Post by lennsakata on Dec 15, 2013 0:43:09 GMT -5
Brett Jackson is not happy about the non-shitty version of him entering the mix.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 15, 2013 1:38:07 GMT -5
Wish Kalish all the luck in the world. That swing is flat out hideous, but the tools are there so maybe he could become a nice 4th OF.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 15, 2013 11:39:04 GMT -5
It's impossible to know if Kalish were pissed at the Sox. Signing with Chicago makes way more sense for his career to get back on track then in Boston. He had a legit chance at the big leagues there. Here he had a lot of obstacles. No brainer for him.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 15, 2013 12:11:45 GMT -5
I am good with KAlish gone and Theo have fun with the Sox leftovers. I know a few guys are excited with the direction of the Cubs but I just don't see it. I know the FO built a better farm system but until they bear fruit we still don't know what they have there. Every season there sellers . Something in Boston that wouldn't be tolerated. They already fired there first manager that the Sox supposedly "dropped the ball on".
I always want to know what really happened when Theo left and the negotiation process because there is no way that's what Ben wanted when things got settled or Larry for that matter ,He was spearheading that. I would love to be a fly on the wall.
I always wanted to know who Theo would really hire , if he could grab who ever he wanted.
L
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Dec 17, 2013 11:40:08 GMT -5
I am good with KAlish gone and Theo have fun with the Sox leftovers. I know a few guys are excited with the direction of the Cubs but I just don't see it. I know the FO built a better farm system but until they bear fruit we still don't know what they have there. Every season there sellers . Something in Boston that wouldn't be tolerated. They already fired there first manager that the Sox supposedly "dropped the ball on". I always want to know what really happened when Theo left and the negotiation process because there is no way that's what Ben wanted when things got settled or Larry for that matter ,He was spearheading that. I would love to be a fly on the wall. I always wanted to know who Theo would really hire , if he could grab who ever he wanted. L Good point on the manager part, but when you had almost virtually nothing in either the majors or the minors, it's going to take a while to rebuild from the ground up. Considering Theo is a fan of building from the farm up, he needs to deplete what ever resources he has in the majors to fill out the farm systems. Not to mention getting high draft picks every year goes a long way in reshaping your system. I don't fault Theo for how long it has taken him. Everyone knew what kind of project he was left with when he started. If there's anyone who can engineering the Cubs to playoff contenders and eventually World Series champions, it's Theo and Hoyer. Edit: This is a good pickup for Theo as well. A 25 year old kid with virtually no value, but had a very promising future but has been severely derailed due to injury. If Kalish can start to recapture some of that, he just acquired a valuable asset for next to nothing. What's the worst case scenario? AAAA depth and potentially releasing him after spending what is essentially pennies for owners? |
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