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Post by jrffam05 on Oct 8, 2012 15:14:39 GMT -5
Hello guys, this is my first post on Soxprospects, but I have been following this site very actively for the last two years and I think it is a great Red Sox community, and the staff does a fantastic job. Much better to see discussions from you guys instead of the more common, media driven Red Sox fan. That being said I would like to create my 2013 team
First off I think we need to define what we want to do n 2013, and I think the blockbuster trade defined how our team will operate going forward. The way I see it is the Red Sox want to develop players from their farm and avoid long contracts. I also feel that the Red Sox want to compete for a WC spot next year with reinforcements of Bradley, Bogarts, Webster, DLR, Banes, and Brentz making 2014 look like the start of a long prosperous run. Defining 2013 as a year that the Red Sox want to compete, but not have a need to be favorites I do not think we should look to trade our young players, including Inglesis, Bard, and Dobrount. That being said let me assemble my team.
Note: when talking about signings I am giving the range instead of a absolute contract. I do not know what a player will sign for so I try to express what I think the highest to lower you should go both for both years and $'s
Resignings: Ross 1-3 Years 7-9M Ortiz 1-2 Years @ qualifying offer Dice-K 1 Year <1M @ minor league contract (not to be aggressively pursued. I would think of him as the Cook of 2013 used just for Depth)
Targets Napoli 1-3 Years 8-12M Per Victorino 1-2 Year (I honestly don't know what his going value would be but I would say go up to a 10% increase of fair market value if needed)
1 Pitcher of the following ranking top to bottom
James Shields - if available. 1-3 years 10M per. If longer then 1 year would like to see more salary incentive based or some protection in case of injury Haren - if available 1 Year 12M McCarthy - 1-3 Years FMV+10% (should be signed for his twitter feed alone) Kuroda - 1-2 Years 9-12M per (if only to drive the price up for the Yanks)
Trade: Ellsbury for a good pitching prospect, with boot or throw ins going either way. I.E. Trevor Baurer or Shelby Miller. Other teams to target Nats and Rangers Aceves and Avilis f we can find decent prospect value, if not keep him
Rotation
1. Lester 2. Buch 3. Shields (or other listed FA signing) 4. Lackey 5. Dobrount
Line Up
1 Victorino CF 2 Pedrioa 2B 3 Ortiz DH 4 Napoli 1B 5 Ross RF 6 Middlebrooks 3B 7 Salty C 8 Inglesis SS 9 Nava LF
Bench Lavarnway Avilis (should be used as super utility, as he was when we first traded for him) If traded as noted about then Ciriaco Sweeny (as long as he does not have a PA against a lefty) Sands
Bullpen Bailey Tazawa Bard Melancon Morales Aceves Carpenter (I like him, give him a shot) or Atchison
Morales, DLR, and Aceves stretched out in spring training with a shot at starting rotation
Minor League Depth Pitching Rosa Stewart Mortenson Beato
Position Ciriaco (if Avilis is not traded as noted above) Ivan De Jesus Valencia Gomez (I like him too)
Manager: I could care less. Top two picks are David Ortiz as a player/manager, or Jenny Dell. Anyone else will do as long as we do not have to give up a player for them
I think this team accomplishes a number of goals. 1. It can compete for a WC spot 2. it keeps farm system intact, and actually can strengthen it through trades 3. It is financially flexible enough and has depth for a midseason trade if needs a boost for a playoff spot 4. Has players we can trade for prospects at deadline if out of contention 5. The biggest, sets us up for a great stretch after 2014, with flexibility to sign free agents at that point to make team even better.
Other Notes: -I like Inglesis, and if you reference the topic in the main section about him, I think his defense gives him value above replacement even if he is not hitting. -I also like the Idea of Elsbury for Andrus, although I would like to give Inglesis a shot. -The reason I want a guy like Shields is because the Red Sox have not had that innings eater type of pitcher, and that is what I think they are missing instead of an Ace. -Swisher is another interesting player, although he does not fit the role I am looking for in victorino, as a leadoff hitter. Maybe let Nava lead of and slot Swisher more towards the middle -I think the idea of starting pitching depth is undervalue. That is why I like to have options for people to fill in, them being Aceves, Morales, and to a lesser extent Dice-K, Stewart.
I would also like to pose another idea, which has about a 0% chance of happening but I think would be a good discussion. This would also accomplish the goals I listed at the top.
Resign Ross and Ortiz Sign Hamilton AND Greinke. 1 year each at 30+ Million Have a real slim chance at signing both these players to a 1 year deal, but the idea is to pay them ridiculous money for that 1 year. it accomplishes a couple of things
1. We compete for 2013 2. We keep our farm system intact 3. it sets up our draft. By signing these players in the year we have a protected draft pick we are trading off a 2nd round pick (I don't know how the rules work but I figure we give up our 3rd pick also) then in 2013 when they become FA again it turns into 2 supplemental picks for us + Ellsbury FA giving us 4 picks very close together. I think there is value in having those picks close together; typically you identify a group of players you think would be available at that time that you like, then you pick one of them. In this situation you pick all of them.
Sorry for typing such a long post, feel free to comment, and sorry to any players name I misspelled.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 8, 2012 15:51:29 GMT -5
Welcome to soxprospects.
I think it would be a good idea, starting out as a new poster, to spell the names of our players correctly. There is no "n" in Iglesias, ; and there is a "u" in Doubront.
As for the starting rotation, why would you even entertain a thought of giving Matsuzaka a contract even at the minor league level? What has he done to impress you?
Do you really believe that Hamilton and Greinke would sign for one year? Your first post was lengthy and I can't take it all apart because of your newness here.
Good luck.
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Post by glassox on Oct 9, 2012 20:42:15 GMT -5
Starting pitching Dan Harren JonLester Clay Buchholz Felix Doubront John Lackey,Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa
Bullpen Andrew Bailey Daniel Bard Junichi Tazawa Andrew Miller Craig Breslow Rich Hill/Franklin Morales Mark Melancon
Starting Lineup CF: Jacoby Ellsbury 2B:DustinPedroia DH:DavidOrtiz RF:JustinUpton 3B:WillMiddlebrooks 1B: Justin Morneau LF: Cody Ross C:JarrodSaltalamacchia SS:JoseIglesias
Sign David Ortiz to a 2 years 28 million, hopefully less but the heart of the team Sign Cody Ross to a 2 year 18 million, holding a spot for the outfield prospect we dont trade Trade for Justin Upton use one top out field prospect (JBJ or Brentz) and a few others to get him Trade for Justin Morneau if the redsox take on the whole contract trade for mid prospects Sign Dan Harren 4 year 50 million payroll aprox. 140 million i wouldnt trade Ellsbury for Elvis because i dont want to block Xander Try to extend Ellsbury for aprox 6 years 90 million
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 9, 2012 21:09:45 GMT -5
Starting pitching Dan Harren JonLester Clay Buchholz Felix Doubront John Lackey,Allen Webster, Rubby De La Rosa Bullpen Andrew Bailey Daniel Bard Junichi Tazawa Andrew Miller Craig Breslow Rich Hill/Franklin Morales Mark Melancon Starting Lineup CF: Jacoby Ellsbury 2B:DustinPedroia DH:DavidOrtiz RF:JustinUpton 3B:WillMiddlebrooks 1B: Justin Morneau LF: Cody Ross C:JarrodSaltalamacchia SS:JoseIglesias Sign David Ortiz to a 2 years 28 million, hopefully less but the heart of the team Sign Cody Ross to a 2 year 18 million, holding a spot for the outfield prospect we dont trade Trade for Justin Upton use one top out field prospect (JBJ or Brentz) and a few others to get him Trade for Justin Morneau if the redsox take on the whole contract trade for mid prospects Sign Dan Harren 4 year 50 million payroll aprox. 140 million i wouldnt trade Ellsbury for Elvis because i dont want to block Xander Try to extend Ellsbury for aprox 6 years 90 million glassox, Do you think the Diamondbacks would trade an all-star like Justin Upton for unproven AA prospects like JBJ or Brentz and a "few others"? Dream on. That's what this thread is all about.
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Post by glassox on Oct 9, 2012 21:23:47 GMT -5
I thnk JBJ, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens and a mid prospect or 2 would get it done
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 9, 2012 21:46:17 GMT -5
I thnk JBJ, Garin Cecchini, Henry Owens and a mid prospect or 2 would get it done Justin Upton already has 108 HR and career BA of .278 at age 25. He is a two time all star and was 4th on the NL MVP list in 2011. And you think Kevin Towers will bite on JBJ, Cecc, Henry Owens and mid level prospects? You would have to start with Jose Iglesias since Towers has said he is looking for infielders. Then you may have to include one of our catchers plus a Webster or Barnes. Upton ain't comin' cheap, my man.
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Post by jmei on Oct 9, 2012 23:37:31 GMT -5
I don't honestly think a JBJ, Cecchini, and Owens package is much worse than a Barnes, Iglesias, Lavarnway package. The first package would include the SP.com 3rd, 7th, and 9th ranked prospects and the second package would include the 2nd, 10th, and (now graduated, but as of June 8th) 6th ranked prospects. Those two packages aren't really materially different, especially if another mid-tier prospect is included in the first package, as glassox suggested.
That said, Upton will be a very sought-after player-- he's only 23 and has a very reasonable $38.5m owed to him over the next three years. I think a more realistic package probably starts with Bogaerts, or alternatively both Bradley and one of the Barnes/Webster/De La Rosa trio. Just my personal speculation, however-- there are few examples of a player as young and talented as Upton being traded, so historical comps are difficult.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 10, 2012 7:59:13 GMT -5
The point I was making is that Upton, at age 25, already has an outstanding ML resume and is a budding superstar. To trade for him would require a boatload of talent.
Towers has said he's looking for infielders over the offseason. The Diamondbacks need a shortstop, thus the Andrus rumors. Any Red Sox proposals starts with Iglesias who is more ML ready than Bogaerts. I'd love Upton on this team. But be prepared to pay dearly for his services.
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Post by jdb on Oct 10, 2012 8:18:48 GMT -5
I think Arizona is looking to dump Young bc they have an up and coming CF/leadoff hitter. Their OF seems to be set. I'm afraid an Upton conversation starts with WMBs not a bunch of guys that just finished Greenville.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Oct 10, 2012 9:20:01 GMT -5
C Lavarnway 1B Napoli 2B Pedroia SS Iglesias 3B Middlebrooks LF Ross CF Melky/Victorino/Swisher(RF) RF Kalish DH Ortiz BN Butler BN Ciriaco BN Sands BN Nava/Podsednik/Hazelbaker etc
SP Lester SP Buchholz SP Harden/Kuroda/McCarthy/Marcum/Saunders SP Doubront SP Lackey RP Miller RP Morales RP Melancon RP Breslow RP Tazawa RP Bard CL Bailey
Trade Saltalamacchia for B-C level Prospect(s) Trade Ellsbury for SP or SP prospect(s) Trade/release/send to AAA:Mortensen, Atchison, Aceves, Padilla, Hill, Gomez, Aviles, Loney
FA Signings: Melky/Swisher/Victorino: 1 yr for Melky, 2 for Victorino, and 2 for Swisher Napoli: 2-3 yrs to be the 1B, occasional C, and eventual DH successor to Ortiz Ortiz:1-2 years Ross:2-3 years Harden/Kuroda/McCarthy/Marcum/Saunders: 1 yr deals for any of them
My strategy is to treat this year as a try out for some younger players to prove themselves over a full season (Kalish, Iglesias, Lavarnway, Doubront, Middlebrooks, and Sands) while still keeping some veterans around to keep the team competitive, without being locked into long term deals that will block the incoming prospects.
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Post by glassox on Oct 10, 2012 10:52:16 GMT -5
I guess i'm lost. You think that Iglesias and Kalish is enough to get Upton in your post but JBJ, Cecchini, Owens, and add 2 like Workman and Jose Vinicio isnt, why? If a team offered those 5 to the Sox that for Iglesias and Kalish i think they would take it. Is it because your offer is more MLB ready? Or because the Towers interview were he talked about added infielders. Make it a 3 team trade with Texas and send Elvis to the Dbacks. I dont want to block Xander with Elvis and/or WMB. I dont think as highly as you do about Upton i guess maybe because of B.J Upton and how he was going to be a superstar (Justin IS better) and how Justin seams to always be a possible trade chip, i wonder if something is up.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 10, 2012 11:09:16 GMT -5
I guess i'm lost. You think that Iglesias and Kalish is enough to get Upton in your post but JBJ, Cecchini, Owens, and add 2 like Workman and Jose Vinicio isnt, why? If a team offered those 5 to the Sox that for Iglesias and Kalish i think they would take it. Is it because your offer is more MLB ready? Or because the Towers interview were he talked about added infielders. Make it a 3 team trade with Texas and send Elvis to the Dbacks. I dont want to block Xander with Elvis and/or WMB. I dont think as highly as you do about Upton i guess maybe because of B.J Upton and how he was going to be a superstar (Justin IS better) and how Justin seams to always be a possible trade chip, i wonder if something is up. I'm lost too. I think you were referring to me although you didn't use the "quote" mode. Where did I ever mention Kalish?
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Post by glassox on Oct 10, 2012 11:16:29 GMT -5
My wish list: Free Agents: Papi Cody Napoli Trade: Andrus (Ellsbury, Bard) J. Upton (Iglesias, Kalish ) Starting Pitchers: Buccholz Lester Lackey Doubront Morales Rubby Bullpen stays pretty much the same minus Padilla. Lineup: 1 Andrus SS 2 Pedroia. 2B 3. Napoli 1B 4. Papi DH 5. Upton Cf 6. Ross RF 7. Saltalamacchia/Lavarnway. C 8. Middlebrooks. 3B 9. Sands/Nava. LF Lineup looks a little too RH, but it certainly packs a lot of power.
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Post by glassox on Oct 10, 2012 11:18:40 GMT -5
Sorry for not using the quote mode i'm still new to posting on here. That is your post in this thread.
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Post by mainesox on Oct 10, 2012 11:24:31 GMT -5
Trade: Andrus (Ellsbury, Bard) J. Upton (Iglesias, Kalish )
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 10, 2012 17:54:09 GMT -5
Note heading qualifier: "wish list".
All in all, I agree with attempting to get Upton on this team. Its the give back where we differ. To jdb's point, the discussion might start with Middlebrooks.
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Post by glassox on Oct 10, 2012 20:03:16 GMT -5
I understand and i may value some prospects more than you, and you may value Upton more than me. Also there is no way i give up WMB as a start for a trade i think Upton and WMB will have simular value soon.
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Post by jdb on Oct 11, 2012 9:20:30 GMT -5
Just curious if anyone thinks Bucholz could get Wil Myers. Reports have KC desperate for SP and have an OF to deal. Would you do that? KC might bite bc he is signed for 5 years. Of course we would have to sign a FA to replace Buch or trade Ells for it. Is that a crazy thought?
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 11, 2012 10:24:54 GMT -5
Just curious if anyone thinks Bucholz could get Wil Myers. Reports have KC desperate for SP and have an OF to deal. Would you do that? KC might bite bc he is signed for 5 years. Of course we would have to sign a FA to replace Buch or trade Ells for it. Is that a crazy thought? If that would work we would be crazy to no do that trade. I would take Myers and sign Sanchez to replace Buchholz. Myers is going to be a great player though; i would say he is untouchable.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 11, 2012 13:21:28 GMT -5
Just curious if anyone thinks Bucholz could get Wil Myers. Reports have KC desperate for SP and have an OF to deal. Would you do that? KC might bite bc he is signed for 5 years. Of course we would have to sign a FA to replace Buch or trade Ells for it. Is that a crazy thought? If that would work we would be crazy to no do that trade. I would take Myers and sign Sanchez to replace Buchholz. Myers is going to be a great player though; i would say he is untouchable. Have to agree that KC probably has Myers as an untouchable but could probably pry Gordon away from them, if it makes any sense at all.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,830
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Post by nomar on Oct 12, 2012 17:32:14 GMT -5
Trades:
Ellsbury for Elvis Andrus (and maybe Grimm)
Buchholz + Iglesias for Justin Upton
Saltalamacchia + Aceves/Bard for Ike Davis
Signings
Cody Ross 2/$14M
Ortiz 1y/$16M with vesting option for 2014
Gerald Laird 1y/$2M
Dan Haren 2y/$24M
Anibal Sanchez 3y/$30M
Lineup:
SS Andrus 2B Pedroia DH Ortiz RF Upton 1B Davis 3B Middlebrooks LF Ross C Lavarnway CF Kalish (until Bradley is ready)
Rotation: Lester Haren Sanchez Doubront Lackey (De La Rosa, Morales also options)
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Post by jdb on Oct 13, 2012 10:27:15 GMT -5
All right here is your 2013 World Series Champions
First goal is to compete in 2013 and not mortgage the future doing it.
Move #1
Resign Ortiz to 1 yr 14 million and a vesting option at 135 games.
Ross gets 2 yrs at 5 million per which is a raise. I may go a little higher but not too much. Value is tied into hitting LHP and our home park.
Move #2
SD realizes they need to lock up Headly ASAP and we have a great relationship with their FO. We deal Kalish and Vitek, who they loved coming out of college, for Carlos Quinten. They resigned him for 3 years and 27 million but want Headly around while the top farm in baseball comes to MLB. We use him in LF and DHing vs tough LHP and he moves to DH whenever Ortiz retires. (Sibby is probably right. Maybe give them a choice of Britton or Workman. Willingham in Minn would also be a target.)
Move #3
Washington signs Bourne and cant afford LaRoache and plan to move Morse to 1B. They pick up his option and we trade Alex Wilson for him.
Move #4
Sign Marcum at 2 Yrs at 10 Per
Al East experience and doesnt cost a pick.
Lineup
Ells Pedroia Ortiz Quentin Laroache Ross WMBs Lavarnway/Salty Iglesias
A little RH but Sweeney plays vs every RHP on the road and fills in as needed at home.
Rotation
Lester Buch Felix D Marcum Lackey
In this scenario if Lester and Buch get back to career norms we can compete. BC said yesterday Lackey should be healthy for the first time in his Red Sox career. Who knows how he will pitch but if he can throw 175+ innings with an ERA in the low 4.00s he is valuable. Not worth his salary but valuable.
I think I would let Rubby start in AAA and keep Morales stretched out in Boston, ala Kris Medlin. Two guys with upside and if they do well in their roles teams will need SP at the deadline. Not trading them but Marcum on a short deal would have interest and if Lackey is pitching okay we can eat some salary and try and sell the fact he is on the league minimum in his last year of his contract to someone.
Bullpen pretty much stays the same.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 13, 2012 10:56:51 GMT -5
Some interesting ideas. I can't see the Padres making that Quentin deal, however. Vitek has been bothered by a back strain all year and played in only 46 games, a definite red flag despite their love for him coming out of college.
Kalish has missed most of the last two years with injuries. When we thought he was healed and inserted him into the late season lineup, well, it was painful to watch. He is an even bigger question mark than Vitek.
As for Marcum, IMO I'd rather give a shot to Morales who really impressed when he was thrown into the starters role. I'd take Marcum if we could trade either Lester or Buchholz for real value.
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Post by larrycook on Oct 15, 2012 13:30:32 GMT -5
In this scenario if Lester and Buch get back to career norms we can compete. Seems to me that every hitter in baseball has been teeing off on Lester's cutter, which seems to have lost a little something in the last two years. Unless Lester develops a new out pitch, I think just getting to .500 is the best we can hope for as far as a bounce back year from him. At this point, i think Lackey as a better chance to throw more wins than Lester does.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2012 20:04:43 GMT -5
The 2013 Red Sox:
Acquistions:
Free Agents: SP Brandon McCarthy Trades Candidates; RHP Alfredo Aceves RF Ryan Sweeney RHP Andrew Bailey SS Mike Aviles RHP John Lackey
The sox need to acquire a (1) a pitching prospect, (2) a shortstop, (3) a player with power such as Allen Craig, Mark Trumbo, or Todd Frazier who can play first or outfield
Resign Ortiz, Ross. Do not resign Cook, Podsednik, Padilla
Starting Rotation: RHP Clay Buchholz LHP Jon Lester RHP Brandon McCarthy LHP Felix Doubront RHP Rubby De La Rosa Other Starter Candidates: Zach Stewart, Junichi Tazawa, Clayton Mortensen, Chris Hernandez, Drake Britton, Franklin Morales, Alfredo Aceves (If he is not traded), Allen Webster
Bullpen: RHP Clayton Mortensen RHP Scott Atchison LHP Franklin Morales RHP Daniel Bard LHP Andrew Miller LHP Craig Breslow RHP Mark Melancon RHP Junichi Tazawa Other Bullpen Candidates: Josh Fields, Chris Carpenter, Pedro Beato
Catcher: Jarrod Saltalamacchia Ryan Lavarnway
1st Base: Mauro Gomez Jerry Sands
2nd Base: Dustin Pedroia
Shortstop: Pedro Ciriaco Jose Iglesias
3rd Base: Will Middlebrooks
Left Field: Daniel Nava
Center Field: Jacoby Ellsbury Ryan Kalish
Right Field: Cody Ross
Designated Hitter: David Ortiz
Lineup vs RHP: CF Jacoby Ellsbury 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 3B Will Middlebrooks RF Cody Ross C Jarrod Saltalamacchia 1B Mauro Gomez LF Daniel Nava SS Pedro Ciriaco
Lineup vs LHP: CF Jacoby Ellsbury 2B Dustin Pedroia DH David Ortiz 3B Will Middlebrooks RF Cody Ross C Ryan Lavarnway 1B Jerry Sands LF Daniel Nava SS Pedro Ciriaco
There are many other aquisitions that the Sox can do. I'm just naming basic ones. There are countless guys they can sign to minor league deals. I don't know why everyone says the Sox need to sign a first baseman. They already have two good prospect first basemen in Jerry Sands and Mauro Gomez. Looking at their career splits, Sands crushes lefties and slumps against righties, while Gomez crushes righties and slumps against lefties. That is why I changed them in the lineups.
I welcome comments. Tell me what you think.
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