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2014 MLB Post-Draft Discussion Thread
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 16, 2014 17:38:43 GMT -5
Ryan Hannable ?@ryanhannable 8m
Source: Red Sox first-round pick (No. 26 overall) Michael Chavis and the club have agreed to terms for the slot value of $1,870,500.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 16, 2014 17:53:21 GMT -5
With all of these slot signings it seems like we're going to have no money saved for later picks.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jun 16, 2014 17:55:28 GMT -5
Updated this aftenoon's post rather than re-posting.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 16, 2014 17:59:16 GMT -5
With all of these slot signings it seems like we're going to have no money saved for later picks. There was no way our first round pick was going under slot |
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2014 18:12:14 GMT -5
Chavis at slot is very good. I actually had him going over slot more than Mike did.
Kopech at $1.5M is excellent, even better than my last guess of $1,528,000.
So, updating my last assessment, excluding the stuff that happened before today (changes in bold):
My guesses for remaining slot picks, with Mike's when we disagree (to clarify, where we agree I'm just stealing Mike's!):
Cosart, slot (Mike 9400 under)
McAvoy, 367,600 under
Reilly, 10,000 over (Mike 36,500 over)
Steen, whatever's left at the deadline, we'll say slot for the time being (Mike 92,600 under; Okin is guessing about 60,000 over)
Sturgeon 127,600 under
That's 346,000 under.
Whitson and Beeks have signed. I had them at 90,000 and 85,000 over, but I also (trusting Mike) had Shepherd at 50,000 over, and he ended up not going over at all. Based on that, I dropped Whitson to 65,000 over and Beeks to 60,000. (Mike's guesses have us giving slot 158 money to both of these guys; their average ratings were 219 and 231, which is what these new guesses are based on.)
The 5% we can go over the cap is another 318,665.
If all this is correct, then we have about 540,000 to play with.
Mike's projected costs against cap:
Fisher 200,000
Matijevic 150,000
Rice 100,000
Rolen, Alvarado, etc. 25,000 each?
It looks like we have the budget for everyone reasonable, and maybe some to go over slot on Steen.
All of this will change, of course, when we find out what the actual Whitson, Beeks, Reilly, etc. numbers are. Especially Whitson and Beeks, where the error bars are large. But this is a reasonable guess.
Final comment: the size of the Whitson and Beeks contracts is in fact key, as it's where Mike and I really disagree. If he's right, after Fisher we have something like $65,000 and we're close to done. The closer I am to being right, the more we have to make an irresistible offer to one or more of Matijevic, Rice, Rolen, and Alvarado -- almost all by using the 5% wiggle room.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2014 18:14:50 GMT -5
Im no expert but a slot signing seems like a great deal with Chavis. He couldve easily got another 100k from us Im thinking just based on the mathematics of it all.
As a high school guy, he has a lot of leverage. He was also expected by some to go sooner in the draft. Im very happy with the deal.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 16, 2014 18:17:38 GMT -5
With all of these slot signings it seems like we're going to have no money saved for later picks. There was no way our first round pick was going under slot I didn't mean to imply anything on Chavis, it was just the timing that Chavis was the most recent of the slot signings prior to my post. I was a bit surprised to see some of the other (later) top 10 sign for slot or over. With Peterson and Kendall out I was hoping for Rice/Alvarado and I'm worried that Ockimey being over slot and some of the other slot signings meaning that we have limited resources for the later picks. Granted, some of them might be out of the question regardless of the money, and others may take less than anticipated, as I admittedly know little to nothing about this stuff. That's why I defer to the experts here. |
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 16, 2014 18:38:25 GMT -5
Jim Callis ?@jimcallismlb 3s Sox have saved $10,800 vs pool. @ryanhannable: redsox 1st-rd pick (No. 26) Michael Chavis has agreed for slot value of $1,870,500 @mlbdraft |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 16, 2014 19:01:50 GMT -5
Here's my spreadsheet updated for this evening's latest signing news. You should be able to plug in your numbers if you'd like. I've adjusted some numbers for projected signings to show enough to sign Matijevic, but Mike has him headed to Arizona (not sure if that's based on inside info or not. 2014 Sox draft.xlsx (19.23 KB) |
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 16, 2014 19:13:29 GMT -5
With Louisville bombing out of the CWS, I would expect Sturgeon to sign quickly.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 16, 2014 20:13:09 GMT -5
With Louisville bombing out of the CWS, I would expect Sturgeon to sign quickly. I missed it. Did Sturgeon flounder? |
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Post by bulldougy on Jun 16, 2014 20:20:57 GMT -5
With Louisville bombing out of the CWS, I would expect Sturgeon to sign quickly. I missed it. Did Sturgeon flounder? You have no sole. |
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Post by eagleeye9184 on Jun 16, 2014 20:47:05 GMT -5
Cherington better set the hook good so he doesn't get away.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jun 17, 2014 7:24:15 GMT -5
Cherington better set the hook good so he doesn't get away. There are salmon godly puns here. Hope there are a few more signings coming down the pike. |
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Post by zil on Jun 17, 2014 8:06:38 GMT -5
Cherington better set the hook good so he doesn't get away. There are salmon godly puns here. Hope there are a few more signings coming down the pike. Yeah, so far it's looking like we got a pretty good catch. |
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 17, 2014 9:38:25 GMT -5
Sign Matijevic and all top 10 picks and call it a draft. Really is there anything else to do?
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Post by ramireja on Jun 17, 2014 9:49:30 GMT -5
Sign Matijevic and all top 10 picks and call it a draft. Really is there anything else to do? Sounds good to me, except that I think that signing Matijevic is only possible if McAvoy and Sturgeon sign for well below slot, and if Whitson and Beeks didn't require too much overslot (say 100k overslot a piece). I suppose thats possible, but I think its optimistic and represents the best case scenario. Otherwise, the signings may be pretty much done with the exception of <100k signings. I wouldn't be upset with a post 10th round haul of Whitson, Beeks, Kemp, Fisher and others. |
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 17, 2014 10:58:54 GMT -5
Sign Matijevic and all top 10 picks and call it a draft. Really is there anything else to do? Sounds good to me, except that I think that signing Matijevic is only possible if McAvoy and Sturgeon sign for well below slot, and if Whitson and Beeks didn't require too much overslot (say 100k overslot a piece). I suppose thats possible, but I think its optimistic and represents the best case scenario. Otherwise, the signings may be pretty much done with the exception of <100k signings. I wouldn't be upset with a post 10th round haul of Whitson, Beeks, Kemp, Fisher and others. Well, this might help. It kind of shows my preferences (I'd like to get Alvarado). And I've made projected bonuses for Whitson and Beeks to fit the budget for Matijevic (assuming he'd sign for $250k), but also based somewhat on reality (I think I'm closer to Mike's projected bonus for them than to Eric's). But change the projected bonuses to see what you think they can do 2014 Sox draft.xlsx (19.23 KB) |
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Post by oleary25 on Jun 17, 2014 12:31:56 GMT -5
Alvarado is exactly the type of prospect this system needs. He's 6'5 with a solid 185 frame with room to fill out. He's very toolsy. If we were to sign him away from Nebraska I think he could be the steal of the draft for the a Red Sox.
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zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50 
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Post by zoot on Jun 17, 2014 12:36:45 GMT -5
Cherington better set the hook good so he doesn't get away. There are salmon godly puns here. Hope there are a few more signings coming down the pike. I don't know what you're carping about.... |
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 17, 2014 12:47:09 GMT -5
There are salmon godly puns here. Hope there are a few more signings coming down the pike. Yeah, so far it's looking like we got a pretty good catch. Brentz shot himself in the leg. |
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 17, 2014 19:07:18 GMT -5
There are salmon godly puns here. Hope there are a few more signings coming down the pike. I don't know what you're carping about.... Are we ever going to get back to the draft stuff or are we just gonna keep on going on like this just for the halibut? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 18, 2014 0:24:51 GMT -5
Hopefully, none of these guys will be eaten by the NH FisherCats when they reach Haddock Field.
I'm surprised , but not shocked, that Josh Ockimey begins in the GCL rather than NYPL.
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Post by templeusox on Jun 18, 2014 1:50:48 GMT -5
Hopefully, none of these guys will be eaten by the NH FisherCats when they reach Haddock Field. I'm surprised , but not shocked, that Josh Ockimey begins in the GCL rather than NYPL. Why? It wouldn't be surprising to see Ockimey get chewed up by the GCL. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 18, 2014 2:21:15 GMT -5
Hopefully, none of these guys will be eaten by the NH FisherCats when they reach Haddock Field. I'm surprised , but not shocked, that Josh Ockimey begins in the GCL rather than NYPL. Why? It wouldn't be surprising to see Ockimey get chewed up by the GCL. My bad, brain dead, confused with Travis. This is exactly where I anticipated Ockimey to go. I was anticipating Travis to NYPL or SAL if they promote Witte. |
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