SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 30, 2014 11:35:09 GMT -5
Not buying Scherzer to the Sox. If I am trying to be objective, the only piece I buy is that Scherzer's lack of market would push his value down, in which case the Red Sox would consider it. But in that scenario I don't see Scherzer taking less than Lester's 155M and I find it very hard to imagine the Sox would go north of 145M. If Lester's max bid from the Sox was 135M I don't see the Sox varying far from that figure for Scherzer. In my opinion, the only way he ends up in Boston is if there is no one willing to be crazy and spend over $160 million for his services. Also, the Sox will have trouble going to 6 years again, let alone 7 years. I could see them going for 6 years at $25 million per year, but no further. I really find it hard to find any team that needs him so badly to get anywhere close to $180 million. So, the possibility of his price falling is there, but it is rather doubtful it will fall to a price point that interests the Red Sox.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 30, 2014 12:55:02 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Dec 30, 2014 19:07:08 GMT -5
Not buying Scherzer to the Sox. If I am trying to be objective, the only piece I buy is that Scherzer's lack of market would push his value down, in which case the Red Sox would consider it. But in that scenario I don't see Scherzer taking less than Lester's 155M and I find it very hard to imagine the Sox would go north of 145M. If Lester's max bid from the Sox was 135M I don't see the Sox varying far from that figure for Scherzer. In my opinion, the only way he ends up in Boston is if there is no one willing to be crazy and spend over $160 million for his services. Also, the Sox will have trouble going to 6 years again, let alone 7 years. I could see them going for 6 years at $25 million per year, but no further. I really find it hard to find any team that needs him so badly to get anywhere close to $180 million. So, the possibility of his price falling is there, but it is rather doubtful it will fall to a price point that interests the Red Sox. Yes...I agree with both of you. Lester was dogged when blood was in the water and got a great deal on the frenzy. This does not seem like the year that Boras can play his game anywhere near as easily. The bloated Yankees are making a concerted effort to get younger and leaner. I think that they are looking beyond this year. They continue to slough off aging players and traded the 31 yr old Kellys and Prados for younger, strong arms at low cost. I suspect that they will suffer thru the A-Rod debacle and await the demise of Tex & Sabbathia. Once that money is free, back in they go. It will likely not be this year IMO. I think that they are trying to emulate the Sox. If anyone can/will bite for Scherzer, it will be the LA Dodgers, the new money kings of baseball, or the Angels. Red Sox will not/should not pursue Scherzer.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 30, 2014 19:24:45 GMT -5
It's interesting that Lester remains the only big dollars pitcher signed and that the interest in Max and Big Game is waning. What's it going to be like next year when there are so many top of the rotation arms out there and, what effect will it have on the dollar offers to one year rentals like Porcello this year ?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 30, 2014 19:31:27 GMT -5
He will sign somewhere at some point, but some day Boras is going to overplay his hand and teams aren't going to meet his asking price or come close to it. Scherzer will NOT see $200m.... I'm very interested in how this plays out. This does not seem like the year that Boras can play his game anywhere near as easily. Do people just never get tired of being wrong about this?
|
|
TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,956
|
Post by TearsIn04 on Dec 30, 2014 19:51:10 GMT -5
He will sign somewhere at some point, but some day Boras is going to overplay his hand and teams aren't going to meet his asking price or come close to it. Scherzer will NOT see $200m.... I'm very interested in how this plays out. This does not seem like the year that Boras can play his game anywhere near as easily. Do people just never get tired of being wrong about this? The year when Boras' greed hurts his clients may come, possibly as soon as during the 2013-14 off-season. Their names are Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales. Neither, of course, is on the level of Scherzer but the point is that Boras has reached too high and hurt his clients at times.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 30, 2014 20:28:24 GMT -5
I'm still trying to figure out who gives him $200 million. He'll get a contract, no doubt about that, but I can't see it at that price, that's all.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Dec 30, 2014 20:46:21 GMT -5
He will sign somewhere at some point, but some day Boras is going to overplay his hand and teams aren't going to meet his asking price or come close to it. Scherzer will NOT see $200m.... I'm very interested in how this plays out. This does not seem like the year that Boras can play his game anywhere near as easily. Do people just never get tired of being wrong about this? We will talk after he signs that 200m contract
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Dec 30, 2014 21:01:13 GMT -5
Do people just never get tired of being wrong about this? We will talk after he signs that 200m contract Will that contract be for eight years? Who would do that?
|
|
|
Post by zimmerdown on Dec 30, 2014 21:54:52 GMT -5
That is exactly his point.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Dec 30, 2014 22:37:58 GMT -5
The Boras MO is the same every time for these big name guys. Radio silence for a while, lots of speculation about how he's lost his touch, then a contract higher than most expected. It's how it happened with Fielder and Choo and many others. Maybe this time will be the exception, but I wouldn't bet on it. He might not get $200m, but I suspect he'll easily beat the Lester contract. Remember, eight of the top nine payrolls in baseball have plausibly been connected to top-end pitching at some point this year (Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, Giants, Rangers, Nationals).
ADD: the $200m mark is a total red herring, by the way. If you got Scott a little tipsy and asked him, he'd tell you that they don't really expect to get that much. But Tanaka money ($175m) is certainly possible, if not likely, and that would be a big win for both Scherzer and Boras.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 30, 2014 22:51:11 GMT -5
Everyone wants to wait until the trade deadline or next offseason to make a move for an ace and I just don't get it. Ortiz and Pedroia aren't getting any younger and the team has the money to act now by trading for someone like Hamels or signing Scherzer or Shields. Even if you trade for someone at the deadline or wait until next offseason to sign someone, the price is only going to go up. Guys like Cueto, Samardzija, and Price may not even reach free agency and if they do they are going to be just as expensive as Lester or Scherzer. Why not just pay Scherzer now when you only have to give up a third round pick or trade for Hamels while he is still relatively young and cheaper than some of the other ace level pitchers.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 30, 2014 23:19:53 GMT -5
Maybe because...,
Paying 175+ for Scherzer is not a good idea? Long term free agent contract do not have great track records specially for pitchers.
The Phillies want too much? People will gonna say "but insert proposal w/o Swihart, Betts or Bogaerts can get it done" when in fact everything that has been reported is that the Phillies want one of those names if not two. At which point it makes little sense to go after a pitcher on the side of 30 getting market rate.
This ace thing is really buggin me. Some people want an "ACE!!!!!!" at any cost and it simply doesn't work that way. It's as if the Red Sox haven't won anything in a millennium. Yes they want to contend this year and guess what with the moves they've made to this point they definitely can contend. 2015 is not a championship or bust year.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 31, 2014 0:15:26 GMT -5
Well said. Every year there a guys who emerge from the pitching gloom to have outstanding seasons. They get into their middle career and find themselves, to the detriment of the hitters they face.
There are also pitchers who broke the vault open and took the gold, even as their value evaporated as they moved into their mid-30s. The list of those is seemingly endless. It's a tough business figuring out who's going to be in it for the long haul, a lot more like guesswork than analysis.
Better to stock up on pitchers who've shown flashes of dominance (Masterson), who look like they jumped on the elevator to that mid-career excellence (Porcello), or who've largely flown under the radar (Miley). Given the amount of pitching talent the Sox have knocking on the door, taking a gamble by building a rotation with risky guys like Justin Masterson or Clay Buchholz seems reasonable given the fallback position of promoting pitchers into the rotation from AAA if injuries do occur, and they always do.
The hallmark of recent Sox teams seems always to be the hedge - a gamble with options to sell short or hold long. That seems to be the way the team, under the ownership of Henry, operates.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 31, 2014 0:32:22 GMT -5
I realize that next year isn't a World Series or bust year...but the goal is to go far into the playoffs and win it all! To accomplish this, history has shown that you need an ace caliber starting pitcher to win in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Sabathia, Hamels, Wainwright, Beckett, Schilling and the list goes on. That is why Sox fans are clamoring for an ace caliber pitcher. Especially after losing our ace in free agency. Scherzer has been one of the top starters over the last few years with the most strikeouts and a Cy Young to show for it. No one wants the Sox to pay him but they instead want to wait and pay someone else next year and give up a first round pick. The Sox have spent heavily on hitters this offseason and traded for a few mid rotation starters and signed another. That might make it to the playoffs but I believe they need an ace caliber pitcher to win it all. That is what we as fans want and root all year for! Not to try hard and hope to make the playoffs. It should bug you that they haven't addressed this yet. Especially when you go to a game and it costs you a small fortune and you are paying the highest ticket prices in the league!
|
|
|
Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Dec 31, 2014 0:43:54 GMT -5
Scherzer, Price, Zimmermann, Write in, Shields, then Hamels. If we would acquire an "Ace" this would be how I would go about it.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 31, 2014 0:47:41 GMT -5
My point is that we have no idea what that word means, and you don't either. It changes season to season and sometimes month to month. The KC team came within an eyelash of winning it all, and please don't call Shields an ace. And Lester failed his most recent test with the A's. Apparently he'd started tipping his pitches, relinquishing some of his ace-hood I guess.
Part of the hedge is prepping for when you might be able to latch on to another quality arm given the resources you've stockpiled, and the Sox can certainly do that. But it will be on their terms, not those dictated by Amaro or Boras.
It's business proposition, and it's a good one I think.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 31, 2014 0:58:48 GMT -5
I realize that next year isn't a World Series or bust year...but the goal is to go far into the playoffs and win it all! To accomplish this, history has shown that you need an ace caliber starting pitcher to win in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Sabathia, Hamels, Wainwright, Beckett, Schilling and the list goes on. That is why Sox fans are clamoring for an ace caliber pitcher. Especially after losing our ace in free agency. Scherzer has been one of the top starters over the last few years with the most strikeouts and a Cy Young to show for it. No one wants the Sox to pay him but they instead want to wait and pay someone else next year and give up a first round pick. The Sox have spent heavily on hitters this offseason and traded for a few mid rotation starters and signed another. That might make it to the playoffs but I believe they need an ace caliber pitcher to win it all. That is what we as fans want and root all year for! Not to try hard and hope to make the playoffs. It should bug you that they haven't addressed this yet. Especially when you go to a game and it costs you a small fortune and you are paying the highest ticket prices in the league! They have addressed this year. They were one of the worst teams last year. They now are in perfect position to contend. It's not like they've sat on their hands or something. They addressed the offense which was bad last year and address the pitching which lacked depth beyond "the ace." Ace the just a few month ago people were questioning if he was an ace. The Red Sox definitely could use another starter, preferably a top of the rotation starter. But it's not something that they should pay at any price possible. It should be something that makes sense. And most those pitchers you cited have something other than "ace" in common, they all were under 30 the season they won the WS as the ace. Maybe Wainwright (And obviously Schilling) was over 30 as I didn't check and I'm going off the top of my head. And that matters. I think this fixation with "THE ACE!!" is clouding people's mind.
|
|
|
Post by PedroKsBambino on Dec 31, 2014 1:25:16 GMT -5
I never said to get an ace at any price possible. I am just saying that the time to do it is now before the season starts and Scherzer and Hamels are two of the top options. I think that Shields is too old and will get too much money but Scherzer just recently turned 30 and Hamels isn't yet 31. I don't know how you expect to get a top starter out there on "their terms". Any top quality starting pitcher is going to cost top dollars or a top prospect like Owens. Zimmermann, Cueto, Price, Samardzija, etc are all going to turn 30 soon and cost quality prospects to trade for and/or top dollars. If your hope is that one of Porcello, Miley, or Masterson is due to break out then I just ask why you think that? They all have question marks and can't be relied upon as an option to cross your fingers and hope someone becomes a quality pitcher the same caliber of a top starter. An ace, or whatever term you want to use to describe a top quality starting pitcher, is just that. Someone who has performed at a high level and led a staff with great stats in the season and in the playoffs. None of the pitchers currently on the roster can say that. Relying on one or more of them to turn into that is foolish IMO.
|
|
|
Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 31, 2014 1:48:16 GMT -5
175m over 7/8 years is not just top dollars. It's a deal that could derail the team for years to come. That's what he and his agent are probably looking for if not more. There are way more ramifications that need to be considered beyond the need of ace.
Again the Phillies, from everything that is being reported, want way more tha just a package headline by Owens. They want Mookie Betts+ and that ain't going to happen. Unless they come down from there which seems unlikely given who is running the show there.
So yes the Red Sox may need an ace and those two may be available, that doesn't mean it makes sense.
And why not believe in Rick Porcello? He just turned 26 coming off an excellent season, in his prime, pedigree of being a highly touted prospect, excellent stuff. From a trajectory stand point this could be the right time for him to "breakout."
|
|
|
Post by mredsox89 on Dec 31, 2014 2:08:02 GMT -5
I'm of the mind that you don't "need" an ace to win. Much more, you need someone pitching like an "ace" in September/October, and even then, I fully believe you can win without one.
I think Porcello can be that type of guy this season, in particular with upgrades defensively in Sandoval and what I think will be strides for Xander.
Buchholz could also be a guy who pitches like an ace down the stretch, he clearly has the ability, and will likely either be feast or famine
Getting to the playoffs is the part roster construction has the most impact on, and I think the Sox have made great strides in the rotation, maybe eliminating some of the top end potential, but raising the floor significantly, barring injury of course
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 31, 2014 6:44:34 GMT -5
Interesting thought I picked up listening to the Baseball Tonight podcast: after Tanaka, who is the second-best starter in the division right now? Cobb?
I'm not saying the Sox definitely should or shouldn't try to upgrade the rotation, but it's not like they've got their pants down at the moment. Heck, there might be an argument that this is the best rotation in the division right now.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,839
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 31, 2014 7:41:20 GMT -5
It is almost laughable how pessimistic some are on this board about where the roster stands. If everyone would actually look at the potential 25 man rosters for the other 29 teams, consider the depth in AAA, and the prospects a few years away......no one would want to change places with another team. NAME one! WHO would you swap our 25 (or our 40) with?
Ben has done an amazing job this winter putting together a top 10 (5?) batting order, picking up 3 starters who can very well give us 200+ innings each, and did it all without touching our top prospects. He, just as importantly, has us in a great position with future contracts. How can you not be excited? How can you dwell on the idea of mortgaging the "cap" flexibility so we have the "perfect" roster going into Spring Training? Ben Cherington has the best "hand" right now. Not Amaro! He can wait all the way up to July 31 to pick up a so called "ace", if necessary. The cost will even be less.....if he needs to pull the trigger. Ben is to be applauded!
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2014 8:22:34 GMT -5
I'm still trying to figure out who gives him $200 million. He'll get a contract, no doubt about that, but I can't see it at that price, that's all. Did you wonder who was going to give Prince Fielder that much after Pujols was off the market?
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2014 8:24:45 GMT -5
I realize that next year isn't a World Series or bust year...but the goal is to go far into the playoffs and win it all! To accomplish this, history has shown that you need an ace caliber starting pitcher to win in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Sabathia, Hamels, Wainwright, Beckett, Schilling and the list goes on. That is why Sox fans are clamoring for an ace caliber pitcher. Especially after losing our ace in free agency. Scherzer has been one of the top starters over the last few years with the most strikeouts and a Cy Young to show for it. No one wants the Sox to pay him but they instead want to wait and pay someone else next year and give up a first round pick. The Sox have spent heavily on hitters this offseason and traded for a few mid rotation starters and signed another. That might make it to the playoffs but I believe they need an ace caliber pitcher to win it all. That is what we as fans want and root all year for! Not to try hard and hope to make the playoffs. It should bug you that they haven't addressed this yet. Especially when you go to a game and it costs you a small fortune and you are paying the highest ticket prices in the league! There is also another goal - to not get burdened with players who aren't worth close to their contracts for too long.
|
|
|