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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 31, 2014 8:31:25 GMT -5
I realize that next year isn't a World Series or bust year...but the goal is to go far into the playoffs and win it all! To accomplish this, history has shown that you need an ace caliber starting pitcher to win in the playoffs. Bumgarner, Lester, Sabathia, Hamels, Wainwright, Beckett, Schilling and the list goes on. That is why Sox fans are clamoring for an ace caliber pitcher. Especially after losing our ace in free agency. Scherzer has been one of the top starters over the last few years with the most strikeouts and a Cy Young to show for it. No one wants the Sox to pay him but they instead want to wait and pay someone else next year and give up a first round pick. The Sox have spent heavily on hitters this offseason and traded for a few mid rotation starters and signed another. That might make it to the playoffs but I believe they need an ace caliber pitcher to win it all. That is what we as fans want and root all year for! Not to try hard and hope to make the playoffs. It should bug you that they haven't addressed this yet. Especially when you go to a game and it costs you a small fortune and you are paying the highest ticket prices in the league! What do you think the goal of a Front Office should be in the off-season? I honestly believe the only goal should be to make the playoffs, not "win it all". The reason you wait until July to go all-in is because you have no idea what will happen during the 1st half of the season. What if young guys like Mookie, Xander, or Vazquez flounder? What if injuries happen to our top hitters? Now you have a $175 million invested in Scherzer (or worse, 2-3 top prospects given up to get Hamels) and your season is dead anyways. You build the best team you can to get to the playoffs, and if everything goes according to plan then you find the last missing piece(s) to push for the World Series. The team the Red Sox have right now is more than good enough to make the playoffs if everything goes according to plan.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 8:40:22 GMT -5
Interesting thought I picked up listening to the Baseball Tonight podcast: after Tanaka, who is the second-best starter in the division right now? Cobb? I'm not saying the Sox definitely should or shouldn't try to upgrade the rotation, but it's not like they've got their pants down at the moment. Heck, there might be an argument that this is the best rotation in the division right now. Cobb is a stud though... And while it may be the best in the division for the regular season, I think people are concerned about how it looks in a playoff series matched up against the best teams and heir rotations. Other than Porcello there isn't one guy I love taking the mound against a guy like Price or Sanchez or even Verlander. The regular season evens out because the Sox bottom should be better than the other teams bottoms but the bottom of the rotation doesn't much matter come he post season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 8:43:49 GMT -5
I wonder if they could sell them on a 5/150 contract for Max with a 6th year vesting option... Would they prefer the 7/175 from someone else vs 5/150
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 9:33:01 GMT -5
Given the amount of pitching talent the Sox have knocking on the door. Not picking on this directly but it gives an opportunity to comment on this. The Sox "pitching talent" is only impressive in its volume not in its ceiling or likelihood to produce top end talent. They don't have one guy who reasonably projects to be above a middle of the rotation guy. In other words they basically have a bunch of Wade Miley's - we hope. As far as I'm concerned this pitching talent means two things: 1. They need to go out and buy top of the rotation pitching. 2. They have the flexibility to do so because they should be able to fill the bottom 2-3 slots with low cost homegrown players. This is not a bad thing and if one of the guys (Owens?) Does surpass expectations then even better... Say you spend 30m on Scherzer and extend Porcello at 20 per (high I think) but then fill the rotation with two cheap options and one other guy even if it's Buchholz or Kelly, your rotation is still at a cost of less than 65m. At a 190 threshold that's doable but when it goes way up in two years it's not much at all. The prospect depth even gives you more starters. The reason you buy Scherzer now is because he's dominant (way more so than Lester), AL and playoff proven, durable with much lower mileage and he's built as a guy who you'd bet on to last and age well. Only costs a third rounder and keeps your stockpile of prospects to offset his cost. Trading for a guy still adds and expensive arm and causes you to need to sign someone to a big deal next year. Possibly, losing a higher pick (unless u resign the same guy) plus the prospects you traded. It also probably causes you to have to spend more in the other parts of the rotation since you traded some of your depth. It's not a given but it increases the likelihood that you'd have to spend more elsewhere.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 31, 2014 9:58:55 GMT -5
Interesting thought I picked up listening to the Baseball Tonight podcast: after Tanaka, who is the second-best starter in the division right now? Cobb? I'm not saying the Sox definitely should or shouldn't try to upgrade the rotation, but it's not like they've got their pants down at the moment. Heck, there might be an argument that this is the best rotation in the division right now. Probably Cobb ... and I'd maybe flag Stroman as a guy to watch for this year. As much as I'd love to argue that Porcello is poised for a breakthrough to that status, that feels like my usual offseason Sox optimism. But, yeah, I do think there's an argument for the Sox rotation, for sure. The Yankees rotation probably has more 2015 upside, with at least the potential to be terrific (Tanaka, Pineda, Sabathia, Eovaldi, Nova), but can you really count on any of them? They're like the diametric opposite of the Sox rotation, a bunch of guys who have shown ace quality or power stuff (although Sabathia's likely irrevocably beyond that point in his career now) but also have relatively high bust/injury potential. The Rays are thin, and I don't think there's a strong case to be made for the Eastern birds (Orioles and Blue Jays). I'm increasingly curious how this is going to go for the Sox. I don't remember a Sox rotation quite like this, although it seems like Ben Cherington's ideal regular season team is the 2001 Seattle Mariners, good everywhere and churning out wins.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 31, 2014 10:34:57 GMT -5
And while it may be the best in the division for the regular season, I think people are concerned about how it looks in a playoff series matched up against the best teams and heir rotations. Other than Porcello there isn't one guy I love taking the mound against a guy like Price or Sanchez or even Verlander. I'd say that if the opportunity to add such a guy this offseason for a reasonable cost doesn't present itself, and if none of the current guys emerges as such a guy this season, then you go maybe go get a guy at the trade deadline.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 11:00:00 GMT -5
Agreed but I'd still try to sign Scherzer if I could over pay in dollars and get the years to 5/6
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2014 11:06:38 GMT -5
Even in the postseason, you don't need an ace to win. The 2015 Red Sox project to have one of the best lineups in the league, and those guys will still be there in October. A Price versus Porcello matchup looks scary, but that's not really the matchup-- it's Price versus the Red Sox lineup and Porcello versus the Tigers lineup, and if the Red Sox lineup is as good as it looks, that's a much more even fight. Yes, it'd sure be nice if they added an elite front-end starter, just like it'd be good for them to add any elite player to a roster that wants to contend for the playoffs, but acquisition cost still matters, and I'm not sure it's a good idea to just blow past your valuations just because front-end starting pitchers are marginally more important in the playoffs.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 31, 2014 11:25:41 GMT -5
Even in the postseason, you don't need an ace to win. The 2015 Red Sox project to have one of the best lineups in the league, and those guys will still be there in October. A Price versus Porcello matchup looks scary, but that's not really the matchup-- it's Price versus the Red Sox lineup and Porcello versus the Tigers lineup, and if the Red Sox lineup is as good as it looks, that's a much more even fight. Yes, it'd sure be nice if they added an elite front-end starter, just like it'd be good for them to add any elite player to a roster that wants to contend for the playoffs, but acquisition cost still matters, and I'm not sure it's a good idea to just blow past your valuations just because front-end starting pitchers are marginally more important in the playoffs. I agree to a certain extent with this, but a pitcher of Scherzer's ilk will get you 5-7 more wins a year this year, and 4-7 more in each of the following 3-5 years. With this team's current profile, that likely gets you into the playoffs. That's the reason to acquire him more so that what one thinks he might do if you get there.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Dec 31, 2014 11:43:54 GMT -5
There's just no way the Sox are going to pay what it takes to get Max Scherzer. The Sox were overbid for Jon Lester in the end by $30 million minimum [Lester's got 6 years/$155 million with a $10 million buy-out of a $25 million seventh year option that vests with 200 innings his sixth year]. That's a load of cash ... and Max Scherzer's more valuable than Jon Lester. Maybe Scott Boras misread the market (which I highly doubt), but even if he did, it just means that Scherzer gets ~$175 million instead of $200 million. And the Sox aren't going to pay that for the upgrade from Justin Masterson (or Joe Kelly or whomever you think would get bumped if Scherzer was signed) to Max Scherzer. I don't think there's any chance at all.
If the Nats or Reds make someone like Zimmerman or Cueto available at a reasonable cost, then fine ... but it doesn't seem like that is happening, so the next real time for an upgrade is going to be at the deadline.
But if there's one thing I've come to like about the Ben Cherington Era it's that the team's proactive and sets its own market. They don't get hung up on the one player or get in a position where they're at the mercy of another team or an agent. They needed to upgrade the rotation, so they lined up a few contingencies based on the outcome with Lester, and they did it. Now they can do what makes sense within their value parameters, and I'm convinced that Max Scherzer (or Cole Hamels) won't fall within those parameters.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 31, 2014 12:04:35 GMT -5
Agree with pedroelgrande. Teams win w/o ACES. Look at lat year's Orioles. Is Tillman an Ace? I think of Kershaw, Bumgarner, King Felix and a few others when that term comes to mind; a guy you know when you look at the upcoming schedule you can be pretty certain of getting a win. Pedro comes to mind.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2014 12:13:07 GMT -5
Even in the postseason, you don't need an ace to win. The 2015 Red Sox project to have one of the best lineups in the league, and those guys will still be there in October. A Price versus Porcello matchup looks scary, but that's not really the matchup-- it's Price versus the Red Sox lineup and Porcello versus the Tigers lineup, and if the Red Sox lineup is as good as it looks, that's a much more even fight. Yes, it'd sure be nice if they added an elite front-end starter, just like it'd be good for them to add any elite player to a roster that wants to contend for the playoffs, but acquisition cost still matters, and I'm not sure it's a good idea to just blow past your valuations just because front-end starting pitchers are marginally more important in the playoffs. I agree to a certain extent with this, but a pitcher of Scherzer's ilk will get you 5-7 more wins a year this year, and 4-7 more in each of the following 3-5 years. With this team's current profile, that likely gets you into the playoffs. That's the reason to acquire him more so that what one thinks he might do if you get there. That is awfully optimistic and pessimistic at the same time. We're not talking WAR here. We're talking wins over whoever the worst starter is.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 12:20:32 GMT -5
Ha I love the Orioles argument. They haven't won anything.
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Post by mgoetze on Dec 31, 2014 12:23:53 GMT -5
It is almost laughable how pessimistic some are on this board about where the roster stands. If everyone would actually look at the potential 25 man rosters for the other 29 teams, consider the depth in AAA, and the prospects a few years away......no one would want to change places with another team. NAME one! WHO would you swap our 25 (or our 40) with? Just the 25? I might switch with the Angels. Mike Trout on his contract, along with our budget and farm system, should be able to make a WS juggernaut pretty quick. Would be better to do the switch at the start of an offseason rather than in the middle, of course.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 31, 2014 12:27:48 GMT -5
Ha I love the Orioles argument. They haven't won anything. Let's model ourselves after the Giants then. Get one ace and a bunch of Jake Peavys.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 12:30:54 GMT -5
Go back and look at their pitching in 2010 and 2012.
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2014 12:32:31 GMT -5
Ha I love the Orioles argument. They haven't won anything.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 31, 2014 12:36:02 GMT -5
Ha I love the Orioles argument. They haven't won anything. Ok sorry, they haven't won anything important.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 31, 2014 12:39:17 GMT -5
Winning the division is the only thing that's important from a team-building perspective. There's no formula for winning in the playoffs other than getting hot at the right time.
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Post by The Town Sports Cards on Dec 31, 2014 13:14:16 GMT -5
Yea the Orioles lost the Championship Series to the Royals because they didn't have an Ace like James Shields (1 GS, 5 IP, 4 ER). I'm sure it had nothing to do with the team batting a collective .217 in that series.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 31, 2014 13:22:06 GMT -5
I still favor Hamels over the others, but only if he doesn't cost a Swihart, Betts or Bogaerts. I don't see the Sox making a competitive bid for Scherzer, and I don't think they should. I think the Nats will try very hard to re-sign Zimmermann, and if they can't, I would stay away from him. It will be another Lester situation. I am not a huge fan of Price and wouldn't try to get him. And I think it would be painful to watch Shields pitch in Fenway.
So, from my perspective, barring some luck with Hamels, I think the Sox should wait on another SP until trade deadline time next summer. By then, they will know what kind of team they really have, and what they need. They also will have a much better indication of the potential of the top minor league pitchers, particularly the lefty trio.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 31, 2014 13:27:03 GMT -5
Ha I love the Orioles argument. They haven't won anything. Winning the division has restored Oriole fever in Baltimore, and probably results in the team making a whole lot more money not only this year, but for the next several years. It is much more than "something."
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 31, 2014 14:28:42 GMT -5
I know it's January, and the itch to see some baseball is strong, but perspective please. This team may not be done dealing. The point is, they have enough cards in their deck that they match up with anyone, now or in June. They're dealing from strength which is the way to do it, and if the right offer comes along I'd guess they pull the trigger. Saying that everything has to be done yesterday, and that all is lost as of right now ignores the dynamics.
And Guidas, bWAR has Scherzer as a 6 win pitcher last year, and Porcello as a 4. The Sox may want to pay to pay an extra $10-$15 million for those 2 wins or they may not. But realistic numbers please.
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Post by stevedillard on Dec 31, 2014 14:38:22 GMT -5
I don't think that word means what you think it means.
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Post by jmei on Dec 31, 2014 14:38:52 GMT -5
And Guidas, bWAR has Scherzer as a 6 win pitcher last year, and Porcello as a 4. The Sox may want to pay to pay an extra $10-$15 million for those 2 wins or they may not. But realistic numbers please. Scherzer wouldn't replace Porcello in the rotation. He'd replace Masterson. That's still not much more than a three-win upgrade for a marginal cost of $25m-ish, but that's the real risk/reward calculation here.
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