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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by soxcentral on Sept 1, 2014 12:43:33 GMT -5
I'd take Sandoval with or without the QO, assuming we have a protected pick anyways. A great short term fit, and if 4 years at $15m/year can get it done I'm not worried about the 4th year decline. Of course, he appears to be such a good fit that its never going to materialize. SF will re-sign him. EDIT: With no other moves, he alone changes the dynamic of that lineup pretty nicely. CF - Castillo 2B - Pedroia DH - Ortiz LF - Cespedes 3B - Sandoval 1B - Napoli RF - Victorino/Nava C - Vazquez SS - Holt Bench C - 1B/OF - Craig OF - Victorino/Nava IF - ?? This would start WMB, Bogaerts, Bradley and Betts in AAA to start the year. All prospect depth preserved to focus on 1 & 2 starters, contract well in line with what we can take on. EDIT2: Funny that bench catcher showed that image, wasn't intended but maybe a bad sign?
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,966
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 1, 2014 13:23:37 GMT -5
Ah, I'm just real stingy with draft picks. I want to hoard them, not give them up - even just a second rounder. That's why I'm making it contingent to the QO.
Your idea of starting Bogaerts in AAA may bring derision but I like it. The kid didn't have many AAA ABs before being given a starting job. In fact, I'm disappointed that they kept him up for so long this year, given his bad performance. I don't see the point of having him accumulate service time when he's not ready. Ditto for JBJ.
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Post by mgoetze on Sept 1, 2014 14:11:45 GMT -5
Wright: probably ready to be the long man out of the pen / spot starter. Given that they just recalled him to do just that, they may agree. Has your opinion on Wright's upside ("10 years of competing for the Cy Young") changed? I still think he should be starting.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 1, 2014 14:40:24 GMT -5
Wright: probably ready to be the long man out of the pen / spot starter. Given that they just recalled him to do just that, they may agree. Has your opinion on Wright's upside ("10 years of competing for the Cy Young") changed? I still think he should be starting. Not at all. I'm just being realistic, and thinking of near-future likely performance rather than long-term upside. I still like him enough that I wouldn't hesitate to trade Ranaudo and leave Wright as the likely opening day 5th starter. Then we'll see if Barnes, Owens, Rodriguez, or Johnson can demonstrate that they'd be a clearly better option. I can see him kicking around in the 6th starter / long man role for a couple of years until it becomes clear that they should create a starting job for him. Or maybe not.
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Post by jrffam05 on Sept 2, 2014 15:41:32 GMT -5
I would go for Headly over Sandoval. He will be much cheaper to obtain, less years, less AAV, no draft pick compensation. He seems like the type of player Red Sox target. High OBP, good defense, mid level free agent, coming off a down year. He's been reasonably consistent through his career. He will be on the wrong side of 30, but on the right side of 35. I also don't think that SF would let Panda go easily. As always, it would be an added bonus to take him away from the Yankees.
There is a premium on our 2nd round draft pick. I expect who ever we get in our first round to sign under slot, which would either give us the option to take a fallen star with our second round, or to stack our savings for some high ceiling signings in the later rounds.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 2, 2014 21:48:39 GMT -5
Koji looming as a question mark for 2015, even if they sign him. He clearly has a tired arm but tired arms don't always come back fast. Breslow and Mujica are examples, Mujica appears to finally have returned but Breslow is still pitching like crap.
Bottom line for the off season, no way the Sox will offer a QO now and his market price is dropping like a rock.
Mujica might be our 2015 closer even if the Sox sign Koji.
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Post by bryce on Sept 3, 2014 0:29:13 GMT -5
If we fail to re-sign Lester and miss James Shields,is there any other pichers in free agent worth us to pursue? Max Scherzer is too expensive that I think we should stay away from him. Or we will turn to the trade market? Is Francisco Liriano still an intriguing options for us?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2014 3:38:18 GMT -5
I think there's a greater than 80% chance we'll have a pick in the second round next year.
I also think the price of open market starting pitching is going to go down considerably this year. Excluding the MFY and Dodgers, things seem to be trending that way and this year and next there is a wealth of quality starters hitting the market, more starters than the market is likely to absorb at high costs. There's also the increase in TJ surgeries which will make GM's leery of investing large dollars in starting pitching. It also hasn't been all that long since the pundits were raking the Indians over the coals for not extending Masterson.
I'm hopeful we'll sign Lester to a reasonable contract (market) and trade for someone like Hamels who already has an expensive but reasonable contract (4/$90m with an option year).
Reading above, baring injuries, I give an almost zero chance that the Sox will go into next season with Wright planned in the five slot.
LOL, 2016: Lester, Hamels, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez. Has anyone ever had an all lefty rotation ?
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Post by redsox4242 on Sept 3, 2014 4:36:03 GMT -5
I think there's a greater than 80% chance we'll have a pick in the second round next year. I also think the price of open market starting pitching is going to go down considerably this year. Excluding the MFY and Dodgers, things seem to be trending that way and this year and next there is a wealth of quality starters hitting the market, more starters than the market is likely to absorb at high costs. There's also the increase in TJ surgeries which will make GM's leery of investing large dollars in starting pitching. It also hasn't been all that long since the pundits were raking the Indians over the coals for not extending Masterson. I'm hopeful we'll sign Lester to a reasonable contract (market) and trade for someone like Hamels who already has an expensive but reasonable contract (4/$90m with an option year). Reading above, baring injuries, I give an almost zero chance that the Sox will go into next season with Wright planned in the five slot. LOL, 2016: Lester, Hamels, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez. Has anyone ever had an all lefty rotation ? If we did have an all lefty rotation is that a recipe for disaster?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2014 5:02:05 GMT -5
In Fenway maybe and depends on the lefties of course but I'd rather be all lefty than all righty. Our lineup is trending towards being right handed batter dominant.
The odds are slim but the thought had occurred to me that the mix is the most talked about free agent pitcher, the most talked about trade pitcher and the three top ranked SoxProspects pitchers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 3, 2014 5:34:04 GMT -5
With RDLR having no options left, our 2015 PawSox rotation could easily be Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, Barnes and one of Webster/Ranaudo with Escobar in the pen.
That's pretty formidable.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 3, 2014 8:25:33 GMT -5
I'd take Sandoval with or without the QO, assuming we have a protected pick anyways. A great short term fit, and if 4 years at $15m/year can get it done I'm not worried about the 4th year decline. Decent chance Mookie's better over the next 4 years. At a cost of about 3 million dollars instead of 60. And, you don't lose a draft pick. Don't like Chubby infielders. They don't age well. Cespedes has been very good since we got him. I think our offense will be dramatically improved next year. I'd just like to sign Lester and Andrew Miller. No draft picks. I'd re-up Koji too. Don't forget he finished poorly for Texas in 2011 and rebounded with a couple of good seasons. Mujica/Tazawa/Miller should keep his workload real low. Just use him when we're up 1 or 2 in the 9th, or tied. Let the other guys get the easy saves. The challenge would be finding an innings-eating second starter. Doesn't have to be done in the off-season. We can make in-season trades. I'm thinking a reverse Lackey trade. Craig+pitching prospect for pitcher. Craig has a very manageable contract if he comes around and small market teams would have no problem picking him up. If it's a really good pitcher, you can do something like Craig+Johnson+Ranaudo
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Sept 3, 2014 13:06:13 GMT -5
I'd take Sandoval with or without the QO, assuming we have a protected pick anyways. A great short term fit, and if 4 years at $15m/year can get it done I'm not worried about the 4th year decline. Decent chance Mookie's better over the next 4 years. At a cost of about 3 million dollars instead of 60. And, you don't lose a draft pick. Don't like Chubby infielders. They don't age well. You're proposing Mookie moves to 3B? Apologies if other's mentioned this, but was curious about this as a feasible move myself. His profile lists his arm as solid, but is that for 2B or in general? BA alluded to it being his footwork that would move him off of SS, though I remember reading that some in the org felt it was still possible he'd be playable at that position in the majors.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 3, 2014 14:07:57 GMT -5
I wouldn't have said this two weeks ago, but if Betts isn't playing every day in 2015, it's going to be a shame, and we're going to be bad again.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,966
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 4, 2014 21:06:08 GMT -5
A comment Mike Hazen made on WEEI today strikes me as strange: "...we’re going to be able to do it via trade, having good major league players, not just minor league players to trade. We may trade some minor league guys as well, but having those good, established major league hitters — a lot of these guys that have power, which is a commodity in the game, set us up fairly well in a strong position at least." It sounds to me like he's saying we can improve the team by trading some of our "good, established major league hitters" with power. Just who does he have in mind? I mean he realizes we're last in the league in runs scored and slugging and 12th in HRs, right? That means we don't have a lot of power on the roster to start with. The only two guys who come to mind as having power and being able to bring something decent in a trade are Napoli and Cespedes. (I'm not counting Papi because we all know he's not going to be traded.) And I can't see the benefit of trading away the power that Napoli and/or Cespedes bring because we, you know, need more power, not less. He can't be talking about Craig because he wouldn't bring much back in a trade. So, who else is there? Here's the rundown of the interview: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/09/04/red-sox-assistant-gm-mike-hazen-on-dc-we-know-we-have-some-redundancies-in-some-areas-including-crowded-outfield/
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Post by bmitchsox on Sept 5, 2014 0:00:55 GMT -5
Stanton for Owens, Bradley Jr, Workman, Johnson, Middlebrooks, Webster, Coyle Sign Lester, Shields, Janssen and Miller
Betts 3B Pedroia 2B Stanton LF Ortiz DH Cespedes RF Napoli 1B Castillo CF Bogaerts SS Vazquez C
Craig - Nava - Holt - FA Catcher (Soto or Martin)
Lester - Shields - Buccholz - Kelly - De La Rosa
Janssen - Koji - Tazawa - Mujica - Breslow - Miller - Badenhop (or Wilson/Ramirez)
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Post by redsox1534 on Sept 5, 2014 5:02:08 GMT -5
Beltre will prob be availible for trade. Would cost us a deent package but nothing crazy imo, Andrus as well but he would cost more and meen Bogaerts is back at 3B. Id like to get Pablo as well especially at 4 and 60 but I think he gets 5 and 70-80. to much for me at that price. We need atleast one ace this offseason. Lester is most of ours first choice. I hope we get him back. I would not want to offer the package we would need to offer to get Hamels. I dont see many other young ace SP's worth trading for. Latos is one id be all over. Cueto if the price is right because he is so injury prone. Craig, Workman and or Webster, Middelbrooks. Is a deal id like to use to get one of those two Reds. Might be more like Craig, Workman and or Webster, Cecchini. Some people still value Cecchhini as top 60 prospect.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2014 7:38:10 GMT -5
A comment Mike Hazen made on WEEI today strikes me as strange: "...we’re going to be able to do it via trade, having good major league players, not just minor league players to trade. We may trade some minor league guys as well, but having those good, established major league hitters — a lot of these guys that have power, which is a commodity in the game, set us up fairly well in a strong position at least." It sounds to me like he's saying we can improve the team by trading some of our "good, established major league hitters" with power. Just who does he have in mind? I mean he realizes we're last in the league in runs scored and slugging and 12th in HRs, right? That means we don't have a lot of power on the roster to start with. The only two guys who come to mind as having power and being able to bring something decent in a trade are Napoli and Cespedes. (I'm not counting Papi because we all know he's not going to be traded.) And I can't see the benefit of trading away the power that Napoli and/or Cespedes bring because we, you know, need more power, not less. He can't be talking about Craig because he wouldn't bring much back in a trade. So, who else is there? Here's the rundown of the interview: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/09/04/red-sox-assistant-gm-mike-hazen-on-dc-we-know-we-have-some-redundancies-in-some-areas-including-crowded-outfield/I've been pumping this big-time in the trade proposal subforum, but I'm convinced Cespedes is moved for pitching this offseason. ADD: I'll also note that it's very misleading to judge the 2015 team based on the 2014 team's cumulative offensive rankings. I've discussed this before, but the 2014 Red Sox gave a lot of at-bats to sub-80-wRC+ hitters who either won't be on the team next year (Bradley, Pierzynski, Sizemore, Middlebrooks, Drew, Herrera, Carp, Johnson, etc.) or who can reasonably be expected to improve at least somewhat (Bogaerts, Craig, maybe Vazquez/Ross). Together, the above hitters account for 43% of Boston's 2014 plate appearances, but if you cut them out of the picture and focus on the projected 2015 starting lineup, there's a good deal of projected above-average offensive production.
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Post by bryce on Sept 5, 2014 8:52:42 GMT -5
A comment Mike Hazen made on WEEI today strikes me as strange: "...we’re going to be able to do it via trade, having good major league players, not just minor league players to trade. We may trade some minor league guys as well, but having those good, established major league hitters — a lot of these guys that have power, which is a commodity in the game, set us up fairly well in a strong position at least." It sounds to me like he's saying we can improve the team by trading some of our "good, established major league hitters" with power. Just who does he have in mind? I mean he realizes we're last in the league in runs scored and slugging and 12th in HRs, right? That means we don't have a lot of power on the roster to start with. The only two guys who come to mind as having power and being able to bring something decent in a trade are Napoli and Cespedes. (I'm not counting Papi because we all know he's not going to be traded.) And I can't see the benefit of trading away the power that Napoli and/or Cespedes bring because we, you know, need more power, not less. He can't be talking about Craig because he wouldn't bring much back in a trade. So, who else is there? Here's the rundown of the interview: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/09/04/red-sox-assistant-gm-mike-hazen-on-dc-we-know-we-have-some-redundancies-in-some-areas-including-crowded-outfield/I do agree with you. Cespedes and Napoli are the most reasonable candidates to be moved this offseason.
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Post by bryce on Sept 5, 2014 8:55:48 GMT -5
Stanton for Owens, Bradley Jr, Workman, Johnson, Middlebrooks, Webster, Coyle Sign Lester, Shields, Janssen and Miller Betts 3B Pedroia 2B Stanton LF Ortiz DH Cespedes RF Napoli 1B Castillo CF Bogaerts SS Vazquez C Craig - Nava - Holt - FA Catcher (Soto or Martin) Lester - Shields - Buccholz - Kelly - De La Rosa Janssen - Koji - Tazawa - Mujica - Breslow - Miller - Badenhop (or Wilson/Ramirez) I don't think it's a good way to waste too many prospects for Stanton. See......? Your lineup is loaded with RH guys. Is really good for us?
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Post by bryce on Sept 5, 2014 9:02:29 GMT -5
I wouldn't have said this two weeks ago, but if Betts isn't playing every day in 2015, it's going to be a shame, and we're going to be bad again. It won't be a shame! You are too exaggerated! I think he will be moved for a good pitcher this offseason. I would love to see him go to somewhere he can have space to grow up. It means he can start everyday when the team is competitive but not under no pressure just like what the Sox is now.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Sept 5, 2014 9:16:51 GMT -5
Please don't dismiss the prospect of moving Petey to third and Betts to second.
There is no question that he would be better at third than Betts.
Also, I think at this stage Mookie may well be better than Petey at 2nd. Certainly more range, and better ups on liners. While Petey is a master of the dp transfer, Mookie is no slouch.
About 30% of the time (and maybe upwards of 60% of key abs they are both in short right shifting anyway).
This would prolong Petey's career, help with Xander from a left side range perspective, and I believe make Petey a top five third baseman.
I expect Xander to make a leap in his year 2 (of 22!) season.
I also think that Hazen was referring to Craig, Middlebrooks, and even to a much lesser extent Nava with his comments.
They know the value from a cost control standpoint league wide of their assets. I was surprised less activity took place last winter and expected Nava, Gomes, Lackey, and even Doubront and Workman to be moved.
I think the fo knows the mistakes made last offseason and the deadline deals were a precursor to a true rebuild this year.
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Post by dangermike on Sept 5, 2014 10:04:09 GMT -5
I know that starters are far more valuable than relievers but what about Kelly to the back-end of the pen? I read stuff that said Kelly was up around 98-100 in relief appearances in the minors. And if we got Miller back, they could make a great late-inning tandem.
Koji's arm is rundown and there is a decent chance that we acquire enough SP to make Kelly superfluous.
Here's my pipe-dream: 1- RE-acquire Lester (maybe) or another top of the line starter 2- trade for a Hamels or maybe even someone a tier lower 3- Clay - He'll be good for 15 starts and then he'll hurt himself 4- RDLR 5- Barnes - it's really seeming like he's putting it together
If you don't think Barnes is ready yet, then start Ranaudo or Wright in that slot.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 5, 2014 10:47:50 GMT -5
Kelly was hitting 97 in his last start, and he was virtually unhittable until there were runners on base. He has to fix the problem he has with runners on base. If he does that, he is going to be a very solid starter. If he doesn't he won't be either a good starter, or reliever.
I have no doubt that the Sox are going to pay a lot for at least one FA starter, maybe two. As I have written previously, I hope that Buchholz is pitching somewhere else. He is just too unreliable.
I think there is a good chance that RDLR will be in the rotation. Barnes definitely is a possibility, but so is Escobar. IF Ranaudo is not traded, he will get a shot. I have no opinion on Wright.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2014 10:54:26 GMT -5
Please don't dismiss the prospect of moving Petey to third and Betts to second. There is no question that he would be better at third than Betts. Also, I think at this stage Mookie may well be better than Petey at 2nd. Certainly more range, and better ups on liners. While Petey is a master of the dp transfer, Mookie is no slouch. About 30% of the time (and maybe upwards of 60% of key abs they are both in short right shifting anyway). This would prolong Petey's career, help with Xander from a left side range perspective, and I believe make Petey a top five third baseman. This is insane. One of the main reasons Pedroia was moved to 2B from SS is because he has a fringy arm, one that likely won't play well at 3B. Oh, and Pedroia is ranked as the best defensive second baseman in baseball this year by all of UZR, DRS, and TZ and is likely to win the Gold Glove at the position.
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