SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 5, 2014 13:12:56 GMT -5
People thought Pedroia had a fringy arm. His arm is phenomenal and he could easily make the throws from third or SS. However, no one in his right mind would seriously consider moving him off second unless he continues to decline as a hitter, and then it would not be to another position.
|
|
|
Post by okin15 on Sept 5, 2014 13:36:56 GMT -5
The Sox HAVE to trade one of their OF for a 3B this winter, right?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2014 14:06:53 GMT -5
The Sox HAVE to trade one of their OF for a 3B this winter, right? I see them signing Sandoval or Headley. Besides, which 3B are on the trade market? I don't buy the Beltre rumors, as Texas is in decent shape for 2015 once their roster heals up. After that, it's like likes of Luis Valbuena and an aging, expensive Ryan Zimmerman, who aren't that appealing.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 5, 2014 16:00:11 GMT -5
Zimmerman is playing about half the time in left field. He has had a lot of injuries and developed a throwing problem. I used to be very high on him, but he is pretty much done as a 3B.
Headley is OK, and certainly better than what the Sox have now. But I think it is time to give Cecchini an extended tryout. I suspect his offense would be as good as anyone the Sox could get - other than Beltre. I don't know about the D. Almost all of the available 3Bs are on the downside of their careers, and that downside could accelerate.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 5, 2014 20:10:42 GMT -5
The Sox HAVE to trade one of their OF for a 3B this winter, right? I see them signing Sandoval or Headley. Besides, which 3B are on the trade market? I don't buy the Beltre rumors, as Texas is in decent shape for 2015 once their roster heals up. After that, it's like likes of Luis Valbuena and an aging, expensive Ryan Zimmerman, who aren't that appealing. You're going to find out whether Mookie Betts can play 3B, and you're going to see whether Cecchini's strong finish this year carries over to next. The way I'm reading the tea leaves (including Cherington's recent comments), Betts comes to ST with the 3B job his to lose. All he has to do is learn to play it competently. So, there's a very pretty good chance that they have a first-rate internal solution to that problem, and if they have to play Brock Holt there for a few months next year, that's no disaster. If by next trade deadline it's clear that neither Betts nor Cecchini (nor Coyle if he's not been traded) is the solution, you can make a move to upgrade the position and fill it longer term.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Sept 5, 2014 22:31:12 GMT -5
Today I am going with a rotation of shields, Buchholz, de la rosa, ranaudo and Barnes or Escobar.
I figure workman for the bullpen.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 6, 2014 0:15:46 GMT -5
I think Allen Craig cannot be relied on to be the Sox LF for 2015. I've had my doubts about him from the time they've acquired. Definitely liked the hitter he was with the Cards. Don't think he's that hitter anymore.
If Craig indeed continues as he has, I think the Sox have to rethink their OF alignment for 2015 and that would reopen RF for Mookie Betts and keep Cespedes in LF. The thought of Cespedes butchering RF at Fenway despite that rocket arm of his scares me. Obviously Castillo starts in CF and Bradley starts in Pawtucket if he's not dealt. I'm assuming if he's healthy Victorino gets subsidized and dealt away.
I agree with Eric that the Sox start the season with either Holt or WMB at 3b next year. My guess is WMB gets one more chance, flunks it, Holt holds the fort, and then Cecchini comes up and takes 3b midway thru the season. It looked like Cecchini finally found "it" at Pawtucket late in the season. The Sox need a LH bat and hopefully the improved power he displayed with sustain itself in 2015.
Bogaerts will be back at SS as Marrero clearly isn't ready and needs to conquer SS. Pedroia is back at 2b, although I'm a little concerned about his continued offensive decline and Napoli is back at 1b and Vazquez is back behind the plate, backed up by Dan Butler, I would guess. Perhaps by mid year, Swihart is ready to challenge Vazquez for the staring catching position. And of course, Big Papi is the ageless DH. I think Nava winds up in the Mike Carp role, that's if he isn't traded.
The Red Sox starting pitching logjam has always had me a little confused, but I feel like it's a little clearer.
I think the Sox best upper level starters go in this order: Owens, Barnes (I wouldn't have thought this a few months ago but he seems to have found "it" too), Ranaudo, Rodriguez (very impressive since the deal), Johnson, Workman, Webster, and Escobar.
Frankly, I think Workman definitely belongs in the bullpen and I feel that's where Webster and Escobar wind up as well.
I am still confused as to whether De La Rosa and Kelly wind up in the bullpen sooner than later.
I think the Sox will probably deal for Hamels losing Betts (in that case we'd have that dreadful Craig/Castillo/Cespedes alignment - if that's the case then perhaps they keep Victorino in RF if Craig can't bounce back), Swihart, and Rodriguez, but my hope is that the Sox would re-sign Jon Lester. To me it's kind of a no-brainer, but I don't think the Sox will spend the money.
So you're looking at a free agent starter (or traded for starter like Latos or Hamels), Buchholz, De La Rosa, Kelly, and a lower tier free agent to start the season, but I think by mid-season the Sox will be looking at acquired starter, De La Rosa or Kelly, Owens, Barnes, and Ranaudo in the rotation. I'm assuming Buchholz will pitch better, inspire high hopes, and then get hurt again.
The Sox need another guy who can close and kind of do what Mujica wasn't doing earlier in the year. I'd like to see them bring back Miller, but I don't think they will. I guess we'll see one of De La Rosa or Kelly in the pen, along with Mujica, Hembree shuttling back and forth from Pawtucket, Tazawa, Workman, Layne, and another lefty to be acquired.
I guess Uehara will be back? I certainly hope so. I believe he's still an excellent pitcher. I just think that the workload finally caught up to him, which is why the Sox will probably need another bullpen closer type arm - to ease Koji's burden.
I look at this team and I don't necessarily see a 90 loss team. I think Bogaerts, Castillo, and Betts are the keys to the offense, and the Sox would need to obtain a front line starter and have another starter or two step up - I'd nominate Owens and Barnes. The Sox aren't that far away from being a good team. I don't think they necessarily have to make a bunch of trades. They do need their kids to start to mature. At some point the switch will turn on for Bogaerts. I hope it's 2015 rather than 2016.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 6, 2014 3:32:29 GMT -5
I think Allen Craig cannot be relied on to be the Sox LF for 2015. I've had my doubts about him from the time they've acquired. Definitely liked the hitter he was with the Cards. Don't think he's that hitter anymore. If Craig indeed continues as he has, I think the Sox have to rethink their OF alignment for 2015 and that would reopen RF for Mookie Betts and keep Cespedes in LF. The thought of Cespedes butchering RF at Fenway despite that rocket arm of his scares me. Obviously Castillo starts in CF and Bradley starts in Pawtucket if he's not dealt. I'm assuming if he's healthy Victorino gets subsidized and dealt away. I agree with Eric that the Sox start the season with either Holt or WMB at 3b next year. My guess is WMB gets one more chance, flunks it, Holt holds the fort, and then Cecchini comes up and takes 3b midway thru the season. It looked like Cecchini finally found "it" at Pawtucket late in the season. The Sox need a LH bat and hopefully the improved power he displayed with sustain itself in 2015. Bogaerts will be back at SS as Marrero clearly isn't ready and needs to conquer SS. Pedroia is back at 2b, although I'm a little concerned about his continued offensive decline and Napoli is back at 1b and Vazquez is back behind the plate, backed up by Dan Butler, I would guess. Perhaps by mid year, Swihart is ready to challenge Vazquez for the staring catching position. And of course, Big Papi is the ageless DH. I think Nava winds up in the Mike Carp role, that's if he isn't traded. The Red Sox starting pitching logjam has always had me a little confused, but I feel like it's a little clearer. I think the Sox best upper level starters go in this order: Owens, Barnes (I wouldn't have thought this a few months ago but he seems to have found "it" too), Ranaudo, Rodriguez (very impressive since the deal), Johnson, Workman, Webster, and Escobar. Frankly, I think Workman definitely belongs in the bullpen and I feel that's where Webster and Escobar wind up as well. I am still confused as to whether De La Rosa and Kelly wind up in the bullpen sooner than later. I think the Sox will probably deal for Hamels losing Betts (in that case we'd have that dreadful Craig/Castillo/Cespedes alignment - if that's the case then perhaps they keep Victorino in RF if Craig can't bounce back), Swihart, and Rodriguez, but my hope is that the Sox would re-sign Jon Lester. To me it's kind of a no-brainer, but I don't think the Sox will spend the money. So you're looking at a free agent starter (or traded for starter like Latos or Hamels), Buchholz, De La Rosa, Kelly, and a lower tier free agent to start the season, but I think by mid-season the Sox will be looking at acquired starter, De La Rosa or Kelly, Owens, Barnes, and Ranaudo in the rotation. I'm assuming Buchholz will pitch better, inspire high hopes, and then get hurt again. The Sox need another guy who can close and kind of do what Mujica wasn't doing earlier in the year. I'd like to see them bring back Miller, but I don't think they will. I guess we'll see one of De La Rosa or Kelly in the pen, along with Mujica, Hembree shuttling back and forth from Pawtucket, Tazawa, Workman, Layne, and another lefty to be acquired. I guess Uehara will be back? I certainly hope so. I believe he's still an excellent pitcher. I just think that the workload finally caught up to him, which is why the Sox will probably need another bullpen closer type arm - to ease Koji's burden. I look at this team and I don't necessarily see a 90 loss team. I think Bogaerts, Castillo, and Betts are the keys to the offense, and the Sox would need to obtain a front line starter and have another starter or two step up - I'd nominate Owens and Barnes. The Sox aren't that far away from being a good team. I don't think they necessarily have to make a bunch of 8trades. They do need their kids to start to mature. At some point the switch will turn on for Bogaerts. I hope it's 2015 rather than 2016. Craig should be counted on to bounce back. His BABIP this year is 60 points below his career BABIP, and the only difference in plate discipline between this year and the previous year is that hes swinging at less pitches outside the zone and more pitches inside the zone which is a great thing, also considering that 30 year old hitters dont fall off cliffs randomly, hes one of the best candidates out of anyone in the mlb to bounce back next year. Rodriguez is better than Barnes and much better than Ranaudo. De La Rosa should not be moved to the bullpen. Right now, hes our best MLB pitcher
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 6, 2014 7:32:17 GMT -5
You're leaving out the part where Craig's ISO has dropped considerably. Over the last 4 years it has gone .240-.215-.142-.111. Looking past the stats, he is very clearly out of sorts with his swing and not driving the ball. This is not just a BABIP regression case like you're representing it to be. He certainly has a chance to figure it out and bounce back, but it is far enough from a sure thing that it would be a mistake to count on him as a starting corner outfielder going into next year and I feel fairly confident the team will not do that.
My very rough predictions for the offseason (there will almost certainly be trades we can't account for):
Outfield: Cespedes, Betts and Castillo as starters. I'm not positive on the alignment. I'm actually leaning towards Betts in center and Castillo in RF, but that could go either way.
Infield: Napoli at first, Dustin at second, Bogaerts at SS, and sign Headley to play third. Headley won't cost a draft pick and has the type of skill set that can be undervalued in free agency. His defense will play up with Bogaerts at SS and he gives us another lefty bat (switch hitter) when facing righties. The other three infield spots I view as locks.
Catcher: Vazquez and a free agent. There is an outside shot its Butler, but I doubt it.
Bench: Craig, Nava, Holt, (backup catcher). Nava plays most days against righties rotating in for all three outfielders. Craig is your fulltime injury replacement for all three outfield spots, as well as first and DH. Holt becomes the super-utility player he is supposed to be.
Lineup: This will depend a lot on who Castillo ends up being. For not I'm going to take a cautious view and say he's best towards the bottom of the lineup:
Betts - Pedroia - Ortiz - Cespedes - Napoli - Headley - Bogaerts - Castillo - Vazquez
If Nava is playing for Betts, than Castillo moves to leadoff.
Starters: 1: Sign Lester - I think this is more likely than many have expressed. 2: Either sign Shields or trade for Latos/Cueto/Samardzjia/other short term #2. I don't think it will take anyone in the above projection to get one of those pitchers. 3: Rubby De La Rosa. 4: Clay Buchholz (I would be very tempted to flip him for another starter if there was a market for his potential). 5: Competition between the other AAA guys with Owens, Rodriguez, and Johnson pushing for the spot by June.
Bullpen: Sign one closer (probably Koji, but the last few weeks have me nervous). Move Workman to the pen. Keep Tazawa in the set up role.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 6, 2014 7:47:17 GMT -5
Rather than copy the post, agree with what chavopepe2 except I'd prefer trading for Hamels over signing Shields. Also prefer trading for a one year rental, giving our prospects another year to evolve over either Sheilds or Hamels.
I'd also only want Lamar Headley on a short term deal, one year pillow would be perfect, or to trade for a rental there. That would give Cecchini and Marrero an additional year of evaluation and we can afford to up the salary offered. I'd also prefer to make a Cespedes extension a 2015 decision not this off season.
For the limited amount of games he would likely play, Ross would be adequate for backup catcher if his foot is OK until June with Butler at Pawtucket.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2014 9:18:58 GMT -5
chavopepe2, you left out Victorino. I know it's hard to count on him, but he's probably available to play at some point. I don't see them just cutting him and trading him would be tough.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Sept 6, 2014 9:45:55 GMT -5
I see them signing Sandoval or Headley. Besides, which 3B are on the trade market? I don't buy the Beltre rumors, as Texas is in decent shape for 2015 once their roster heals up. After that, it's like likes of Luis Valbuena and an aging, expensive Ryan Zimmerman, who aren't that appealing. You're going to find out whether Mookie Betts can play 3B, and you're going to see whether Cecchini's strong finish this year carries over to next. The way I'm reading the tea leaves (including Cherington's recent comments), Betts comes to ST with the 3B job his to lose. All he has to do is learn to play it competently. So, there's a very pretty good chance that they have a first-rate internal solution to that problem, and if they have to play Brock Holt there for a few months next year, that's no disaster. If by next trade deadline it's clear that neither Betts nor Cecchini (nor Coyle if he's not been traded) is the solution, you can make a move to upgrade the position and fill it longer term. A team with aspirations to contend doesn't plan 3b around hope and prayer. Brock Holt if he plays everyday at 3b will be exposed and isn't an option. The Red Sox in my mind have no choice but to go after a veteran 3b. Hopefully Middlebrooks turns it around in AAA and maybe even wins the job at some point and you are set going forward. But in no way does the current team have adequate options at 3b.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2014 9:56:50 GMT -5
I'd sign Headley to a one year deal, but there isn't anyone that's worth 3-4 years. And we're not going to be in on Hanley.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 6, 2014 10:01:05 GMT -5
I'd sign Headley to a one year deal, but there isn't anyone that's worth 3-4 years. And we're not going to be in on Hanley. Sandoval is easily worth 3-4 years. He'd only be 31 or 32 by the end of the deal
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 6, 2014 10:21:16 GMT -5
I'd sign Headley to a one year deal, but there isn't anyone that's worth 3-4 years. And we're not going to be in on Hanley. Sandoval is easily worth 3-4 years. He'd only be 31 or 32 by the end of the deal I'm staying far away from guys who weigh 250 and are under 6' tall.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 6, 2014 10:34:02 GMT -5
chavopepe2, you left out Victorino. I know it's hard to count on him, but he's probably available to play at some point. I don't see them just cutting him and trading him would be tough. I don't think Victorino is on the 25 man roster come the start of next year.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Sept 6, 2014 10:35:05 GMT -5
Chavo, you also did not mention Kelly in your breakdown. Are you assuming he is a trade chip? Personally, I really like him as a late inning reliever and possible closer at some point.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 6, 2014 10:38:02 GMT -5
Chavo, you also did not mention Kelly in your breakdown. Are you assuming he is a trade chip? Personally, I really like him as a late inning reliever and possible closer at some point. Trade chip or reliever. I didn't go into too much detail on the bullpen, but I think there is a good chance both Webster and Kelly end up there.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 6, 2014 11:57:40 GMT -5
I've come around on Sandoval. I didn't realize how young he is. He began playing fulltime in the majors at 21. He may be heavy, but he hits and he fields. In a couple of years he might be a replacement for Ortiz. I think he is a better choice than Headley, who is on a downhill slide in his career.
I think Kelly will begin the season in the rotation. He has the stuff to be a very good starter. He has a couple problems to solve, but they are solvable.
I also think there is a good chance of resigning Lester. I think the Sox will acquire one other solid starter, either by trade or signing. I think they've been rather obvious about that intention.
The problem with Koji is that he has to be just about perfect to be any good at all. If he has lost even a little bit, he's done. I can see the Sox bringing him back, but I think they should have a backup plan in place.
The Sox will have a much better OF next year than they had this year, assuming Castillo is what they expect. It will be interesting to see what happens if JBJ turns things around. I think that if Cespedes is going to stay with the Sox beyond next season, he needs to be extended this winter. The Sox have had no success dealing with their own players after contracts expire. He is turning out to be even better than advertised and they cannot afford to lose him. Right now hitting is more valuable than it has been in a generation.
Currently, in the American league there are nine hitters above .300 and only 13 above .290. There are only 21 with 20 or more HRs and only 20 with OPS above .800. In the National League there are eight hitters above .300 and 17 above .289. There are only 17 with 20 or more HRs and only 23 with OPS above .800.
Ortiz is going to fade at some point in the not too distant future. They need to spend the money to keep Cespedes.
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Sept 6, 2014 23:12:33 GMT -5
Given the mess in Arizona and the sorry state of their pitching staff, I think we have the horses to go get goldschmidt.
An offseason of signing shields, gregerson and Robertson and trading for goldschmidt and heyward and we are a playoff team next season even with middlebrooks at third.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2014 3:49:48 GMT -5
Touching back on Ross, if we do bring him back with the intent of his being the backup catcher until Swihart is ready in mid June (super-two thing), a classy way to do that would be to sign him to a player/coach contract. If all went well, as a backup to a young healthy catcher, he would only start about 15-16 games by mid June. He could then slide into full time coaching. I'd like to see the Sox bring up Swihart for the few weeks remaining after they PawSox season is complete.
|
|
|
Post by artfuldodger on Sept 7, 2014 5:15:41 GMT -5
In his article today, Cafardo suggested that Masterson and Grilli will be on next year's team. While both could be signed to"pillow"contracts, who sees them as upgrades for the team next year?
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Sept 7, 2014 6:31:42 GMT -5
Rather than copy the post, agree with what chavopepe2 except I'd prefer trading for Hamels over signing Shields. Also prefer trading for a one year rental, giving our prospects another year to evolve over either Sheilds or Hamels. I'd also only want Lamar Headley on a short term deal, one year pillow would be perfect, or to trade for a rental there. That would give Cecchini and Marrero an additional year of evaluation and we can afford to up the salary offered. I'd also prefer to make a Cespedes extension a 2015 decision not this off season. For the limited amount of games he would likely play, Ross would be adequate for backup catcher if his foot is OK until June with Butler at Pawtucket. Money talks but I think Headley has found something of a home with the Yankees. He likes playing in the big time and the Yankees aren't going to count on A-Rod IMO. Headley will get more than a pillow somewhere if not NY. Also to chavapepe2, I think that the Sox will need to rebuild that pen next year. I wouldn't count too heavily on Koji and we have no 'super power' arms. If I am going to spend on a reliever, Miller is at the top of the list and I'm going to want to add another top notch pen guy. Tazawa is ok...a hit/inning but ok if rested. Badenhop gives up a zillion hits...Breslow is gone, Mujica likely gone, Workman or Wilson don't excite. I could see Workman as a long man...but get me some guy that throws upper 90s, preferably from the right side. Barnes is not that guy at the moment. I very much like Kelly's potential a starter. I'd keep Buch too and re-sign Lester out of desperation making him an exception on longer term deals. I am not yet sold on Owens and wonder whether Johnson will be the better bet based upon his command abilities...something that would likely translate to the ML level. Webster is a maybe someday but not now and Ranaudo is AAAA. Escobar and Rodriguez are possible in a year or so. Therefore, we need another starter acquired by trade or FA. I would rather sign Shields than give up the farm for Hamels et al.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 7, 2014 7:33:07 GMT -5
Rather than copy the post, agree with what chavopepe2 except I'd prefer trading for Hamels over signing Shields. Also prefer trading for a one year rental, giving our prospects another year to evolve over either Sheilds or Hamels. I'd also only want Lamar Headley on a short term deal, one year pillow would be perfect, or to trade for a rental there. That would give Cecchini and Marrero an additional year of evaluation and we can afford to up the salary offered. I'd also prefer to make a Cespedes extension a 2015 decision not this off season. For the limited amount of games he would likely play, Ross would be adequate for backup catcher if his foot is OK until June with Butler at Pawtucket. Money talks but I think Headley has found something of a home with the Yankees. He likes playing in the big time and the Yankees aren't going to count on A-Rod IMO. Headley will get more than a pillow somewhere if not NY. Also to chavapepe2, I think that the Sox will need to rebuild that pen next year. I wouldn't count too heavily on Koji and we have no 'super power' arms. If I am going to spend on a reliever, Miller is at the top of the list and I'm going to want to add another top notch pen guy. Tazawa is ok...a hit/inning but ok if rested. Badenhop gives up a zillion hits...Breslow is gone, Mujica likely gone, Workman or Wilson don't excite. I could see Workman as a long man...but get me some guy that throws upper 90s, preferably from the right side. Barnes is not that guy at the moment. I very much like Kelly's potential a starter. I'd keep Buch too and re-sign Lester out of desperation making him an exception on longer term deals. I am not yet sold on Owens and wonder whether Johnson will be the better bet based upon his command abilities...something that would likely translate to the ML level. Webster is a maybe someday but not now and Ranaudo is AAAA. Escobar and Rodriguez are possible in a year or so. Therefore, we need another starter acquired by trade or FA. I would rather sign Shields than give up the farm for Hamels et al. Mujica is signed through 2015 ($4.75M) and pitching well lately. I'd prefer Hamels relatively safe 4 year/$90M contract to what Sheilds will get but prefer a one year rental to either. Sheilds has 8 consecutive years of 200+ innings. Although I'm not a Papelbon fan, we have the financial position to reduce the prospect cost of Hamels by taking on Papelbon's $13M. The Phillies have a closer in waiting and that would give them $35.5M of salary relief (Hamels and Papelbon). We wouldn't be able to use Papelbon much at the end of games because his 2016 vesting is based on finished games. He'd be an expensive set up guy but would likely justify his salary based on the prospects that would not be shipped to the Phillies. We have the room and Koji isn't going to cost as much as he was previously thought to be getting. Players like Buchholz, Kelly and Craig should be of interest to the Phillies because of their team friendly contracts. Philadelphia is a big market, they are unlikely to be looking for non MLB ready prospects.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Sept 7, 2014 9:06:55 GMT -5
Money talks but I think Headley has found something of a home with the Yankees. He likes playing in the big time and the Yankees aren't going to count on A-Rod IMO. Headley will get more than a pillow somewhere if not NY. Also to chavapepe2, I think that the Sox will need to rebuild that pen next year. I wouldn't count too heavily on Koji and we have no 'super power' arms. If I am going to spend on a reliever, Miller is at the top of the list and I'm going to want to add another top notch pen guy. Tazawa is ok...a hit/inning but ok if rested. Badenhop gives up a zillion hits...Breslow is gone, Mujica likely gone, Workman or Wilson don't excite. I could see Workman as a long man...but get me some guy that throws upper 90s, preferably from the right side. Barnes is not that guy at the moment. I very much like Kelly's potential a starter. I'd keep Buch too and re-sign Lester out of desperation making him an exception on longer term deals. I am not yet sold on Owens and wonder whether Johnson will be the better bet based upon his command abilities...something that would likely translate to the ML level. Webster is a maybe someday but not now and Ranaudo is AAAA. Escobar and Rodriguez are possible in a year or so. Therefore, we need another starter acquired by trade or FA. I would rather sign Shields than give up the farm for Hamels et al. Mujica is signed through 2015 ($4.75M) and pitching well lately. I'd prefer Hamels relatively safe 4 year/$90M contract to what Sheilds will get but prefer a one year rental to either. Sheilds has 8 consecutive years of 200+ innings. Although I'm not a Papelbon fan, we have the financial position to reduce the prospect cost of Hamels by taking on Papelbon's $13M. The Phillies have a closer in waiting and that would give them $35.5M of salary relief (Hamels and Papelbon). We wouldn't be able to use Papelbon much at the end of games because his 2016 vesting is based on finished games. He'd be an expensive set up guy but would likely justify his salary based on the prospects that would not be shipped to the Phillies. We have the room and Koji isn't going to cost as much as he was previously thought to be getting. Players like Buchholz, Kelly and Craig should be of interest to the Phillies because of their team friendly contracts. Philadelphia is a big market, they are unlikely to be looking for non MLB ready prospects. I think the problem is Amaro has given no indication that he will give up Hamels without a premium return. He also doesn't seem willing to give up Papelbon as a salary dump. If they get a new GM things could change, but in the meantime I don't see a trade for Hamels as the best allocation of resources. (I do however hope I am wrong about that, because if you could land Hamels without giving up any of our premium position prospects it would be good move.)
|
|
|