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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by larrycook on Sept 12, 2014 19:44:00 GMT -5
The Sox, despite Werner's declaration of spending big bucks this offseason, might not wind up with Lester if this is true: www.csnne.com/blog/red-sox-talk/report-cubs-interest-lester-may-be-mutualThe Cubs have a ton of money to spend and it wouldn't exactly be shocking to see Theo go get his guy. He'd be perfect for the Cubs. That would probably steer the Sox toward either a deal for Hamels or a James Shields signing. Is there something wrong with the Yankees' McCarthy??? He is a FA and without draft pick comp ( I think). He is at least a #3. The Yanks will be looking for offense in the offseason so they may be reluctant to spend 50-60M over the cap with Nova, Tanaka and Sabbathia coming back to join Pineda, A-Rod et al. They have to sign Robertson and may be in on Cruz so their funds may not be limitless. 1. Maybe we can pilfer McCarthy. . Hard to ignore that 5 plus era prior to the trade to the Yankees. Maybe I just need to understand how that happened and how he turned it around.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2014 20:05:34 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2014 20:13:04 GMT -5
Is there something wrong with the Yankees' McCarthy??? He is a FA and without draft pick comp ( I think). He is at least a #3. The Yanks will be looking for offense in the offseason so they may be reluctant to spend 50-60M over the cap with Nova, Tanaka and Sabbathia coming back to join Pineda, A-Rod et al. They have to sign Robertson and may be in on Cruz so their funds may not be limitless. 1. Maybe we can pilfer McCarthy. . Hard to ignore that 5 plus era prior to the trade to the Yankees. Maybe I just need to understand how that happened and how he turned it around. With the Diamondbacks: 7.63 K/9, 1.64 BB/9, 55.3% GB, 2.99 SIERA, 5.01 ERA With the Yankees: 8.11 K/9, 1.52 BB/9, 50.2% GB, 3.01 SIERA, 2.79 ERA His peripherals were just as good before the trade. The big difference is that all the highly variable, predominantly luck-based stats that were unsustainably bad during his time with Arizona regressed to league-average after the trade. A .345 BABIP turned into a .314 BABIP. A 20% HR/FB turned into a 10.5% HR/FB. A 66.7% LOB turned into a 74.4% LOB. He's certainly a guy worth considering, though you can't forget his extensive injury history (his career high is this year's 180 IP; he's only had one other season over 140 IP).
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Post by larrycook on Sept 12, 2014 20:44:21 GMT -5
I have been thinking about the black hole that is our third base position.
How about we go after Nolan arenado of the Rockies via the trade route in the offseason?
His defense is really good but the offense had really come alive this year and projects well in Fenway.
He won't be stealing any bases but I am ok with that.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2014 20:47:11 GMT -5
I have been thinking about the black hole that is our third base position. How about we go after Nolan arenado of the Rockies via the trade route in the offseason? His defense is really good but the offense had really come alive this year and projects well in Fenway. He won't be stealing any bases but I am ok with that. We have Chavis, Devers, and Cecchini who could break in, let alone WMB. So I'd stick to Headley on a 1 year deal at this point.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 12, 2014 20:56:31 GMT -5
I have been thinking about the black hole that is our third base position. How about we go after Nolan arenado of the Rockies via the trade route in the offseason? His defense is really good but the offense had really come alive this year and projects well in Fenway. He won't be stealing any bases but I am ok with that. We have Chavis, Devers, and Cecchini who could break in, let alone WMB. So I'd stick to Headley on a 1 year deal at this point. Devers and Chavis are years away at best. Checchini has no power. . Arenado can fill a huge need now. Watching middlebrooks tonight has reminded me that he and Bradley are a mess.
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Post by jmei on Sept 12, 2014 20:58:35 GMT -5
The Rockies aren't trading a 23-year-old four win player who hasn't hit arbitration yet.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 12, 2014 20:59:30 GMT -5
We have Chavis, Devers, and Cecchini who could break in, let alone WMB. So I'd stick to Headley on a 1 year deal at this point. Devers and Chavis are years away at best. Checchini has no power. . Arenado can fill a huge need now. Watching middlebrooks tonight has reminded me that he and Bradley are a mess. I really have no idea why the Rockies would consider trading Arenado.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 12, 2014 22:42:33 GMT -5
I have been thinking about the black hole that is our third base position. How about we go after Nolan arenado of the Rockies via the trade route in the offseason? His defense is really good but the offense had really come alive this year and projects well in Fenway. He won't be stealing any bases but I am ok with that. We have Chavis, Devers, and Cecchini who could break in, let alone WMB. So I'd stick to Headley on a 1 year deal at this point. No offense, but the fans of wanting Headley on a 1y deal seem to be looking for no better option than letting Middlebrooks be the 3b next season, except that Headley will cost a ton more and play a little better defense and get a guaranteed salary the Sox will be loathe to cut until June/July when he fails, or can give away in another Drew type deal. Have suspicions some did not watch Headley very often fail to perform with the Padres much over the last year+. It was not a pretty picture to watch. Beltre had a long list of nagging injuries to deal with while at Seattle could be why he was a candidate to sign to his 1y deal several years back and bounce back. His glove stayed sound, wasn't a chaser of everything thrown at him previously. His HR totals stayed fairly high.. Headley is a chaser and his BB to K percentage is plummeting. I wouldn't put him on any list of wants, unless he is willing to sign as a minor leaguer and prove he's worth a MLB job.
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Post by larrycook on Sept 12, 2014 23:08:05 GMT -5
The Rockies aren't trading a 23-year-old four win player who hasn't hit arbitration yet. Maybe, but it does not hurt to try and work something out with them.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,966
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 12, 2014 23:28:15 GMT -5
That's precisely what I meant by my d) option, which I see that I didn't make clear: pay the "king's ransom" to get a guy that everyone feels is just coming into his frontline years, or is smack in the middle of them, rather than perhaps just leaving them. And, yes, because of revenue sharing, these guys are much easier to sign long-term and hence much harder to trade for than back when we got Pedro. I'm going to wait until the end of the year and then try to take a detailed look at possible pitchers to acquire. And let's remember, "Pedros" are few and far between, and he would have to be on a team that was in a revenue crunch, and becoming into unaffordable arb years. That makes the list even smaller, if not nearly nonexistent. Few and far between as in there's been only one in history. Pedro's 2000, 1999 and 1997 seasons rank as the 1st, 8th and 16th best post-1900 pitching seasons, as measured by ERA-plus. And two of the seasons ahead of his 1997 belong to Clemens during his juicing years. Take those away and it bumps Pedro's 1997 up to 14th. For good measure, he threw in a 2003 season that ranks as the 24th best since 1900 (again, eliminating the two juiced-up Clemens years). (Not trying to hijack the thread at all and I know nobody was comparing Tyson Ross to Pedro. I just never cease to be amazed by what the guy did for us and I love pointing it out!)
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 12, 2014 23:40:35 GMT -5
The Rockies aren't trading a 23-year-old four win player who hasn't hit arbitration yet. Maybe, but it does not hurt to try and work something out with them. Just Ben's feelings when they laugh in his face.
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Post by GyIantosca on Sept 13, 2014 3:32:03 GMT -5
I want the Sox to try to deal with the Pirates . I like Bell and others. We always have a good relationship with them. I was surprised they didn't make a move for our players at the deadline.
I still don't understand how the MFY's can be players in free agency they lose the money on Jeter and I chiro but Arod comes back and I read that Prado has two more years at 10 million a year. So that cancels the money they save.
People question our prospects if they are overvalued it got me thinking when did the Yankees devolpe a power hitter or a power arm? They have been getting good arms for the bullpen . By the way this is what the Sox should be doing also. Build the bullpen from our young arms.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 13, 2014 4:03:27 GMT -5
So by this you mean that they are ready to offer Jon Lester a 4yr/$70 million dollar contract. I am checking my crystal ball....yes....I'm seeing it.......it's getting clearer......Egg on face.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2014 6:18:02 GMT -5
Werner basically said the other day that they have "a lot of money to spend" and he strongly implied they would go after a top starter. To me that means Lester, Scherzer or Shields. I think they make a real strong run at Lester and may even be favored to sign him. They would like the no QO attached and they know who he is. My bet is they will go near Tanaka money even to get him signed. And at minimum they will make offers to at least one of the secondary line starters like Liriano or Santana. I would like Liriano, but it is looking like Liriano will be getting a QO, which could well mess us up some: blog.steelcitybuzz.com/2014/04/14/why-liriano-could-get-the-qualifying-offer/It doesn't seem that the Sox would want to sign the 36 year old Aramis Ramirez but I could see them making a run at JJ Hardy for SS and move Xander to 3rd. Or Hanley for 3rd. They have some depth options at 3rd in case Hanley gets hurt again. Some teams may not want to go top dollar for Hanley due to make up and injury concerns. And we do seem to need a 3rd baseman unfortunately.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 13, 2014 8:45:05 GMT -5
We have Chavis, Devers, and Cecchini who could break in, let alone WMB. So I'd stick to Headley on a 1 year deal at this point. No offense, but the fans of wanting Headley on a 1y deal seem to be looking for no better option than letting Middlebrooks be the 3b next season, except that Headley will cost a ton more and play a little better defense and get a guaranteed salary the Sox will be loathe to cut until June/July when he fails, or can give away in another Drew type deal. Have suspicions some did not watch Headley very often fail to perform with the Padres much over the last year+. It was not a pretty picture to watch. Beltre had a long list of nagging injuries to deal with while at Seattle could be why he was a candidate to sign to his 1y deal several years back and bounce back. His glove stayed sound, wasn't a chaser of everything thrown at him previously. His HR totals stayed fairly high.. Headley is a chaser and his BB to K percentage is plummeting. I wouldn't put him on any list of wants, unless he is willing to sign as a minor leaguer and prove he's worth a MLB job. Headley is way more of a sure thing than WMB, even if it's not great.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 13, 2014 10:40:01 GMT -5
Werner basically said the other day that they have "a lot of money to spend" and he strongly implied they would go after a top starter. To me that means Lester, Scherzer or Shields. I think they make a real strong run at Lester and may even be favored to sign him. They would like the no QO attached and they know who he is. My bet is they will go near Tanaka money even to get him signed. And at minimum they will make offers to at least one of the secondary line starters like Liriano or Santana. I would like Liriano, but it is looking like Liriano will be getting a QO, which could well mess us up some: blog.steelcitybuzz.com/2014/04/14/why-liriano-could-get-the-qualifying-offer/It doesn't seem that the Sox would want to sign the 36 year old Aramis Ramirez but I could see them making a run at JJ Hardy for SS and move Xander to 3rd. Or Hanley for 3rd. They have some depth options at 3rd in case Hanley gets hurt again. Some teams may not want to go top dollar for Hanley due to make up and injury concerns. And we do seem to need a 3rd baseman unfortunately. I don't get why anyone cares what Tom Werner says. Is there any evidence whatsoever that he's involved at all in baseball ops?
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 13, 2014 11:07:06 GMT -5
The Red Sox are missing an unbelievable opportunity to essentially mint money. The U.S. Government spends, what a billion dollars to build a B-2 Stealth bomber? And the Sox have developed a superior technology that they could sell to Uncle Sam. Because pretty clearly Steven Wright is f'ing invisible.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2014 11:31:38 GMT -5
Werner is the 2nd largest stock holder isn't he. Clearly a member of the management team. He is even the media savvy member, the guy who would ostensibly be most responsible for how NESN does. If Henry made a statement would you pay attention to that? Werner probably is even more credible than Luchinno, who owns far less of the team. Owners make the final decisions about what gets done. If they sign Lester, it will be more of Henry's decision and Werner's. You are dreaming if you think they delegate everything in baseball ops. They will say they do but you can bet Cherington clears all major deals, especially big FA signings like Lester.
The Sox will sign or trade for at least one top pitcher next winter out of the Scherzer, Shields, Lester, Hamels, Liriano level or above. The # 2 stock holder doesn't just come out and say they "have a lot of money to spend" and then not spend it. He specifically said they would try to sign a top starter. You can almost count on that sort of quote.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,966
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 13, 2014 11:33:26 GMT -5
How about SP Kenta Maeda from Japan? I'm a little surprised there hasn't been more discussion of him, given that the Red Sox have shown an interest in the international market with the signing Castillo. Like Castillo, Maeda could also be had for nothing but money - no draft pick. He could be posted this winter. A CBS Sports story back in January projected him as a mid-rotation type with a sub-4.00 ERA in the ML. He's very slender at 6 feet, 160 pounds, and won't overwhelm anyone with his velocity. He'll turn 28 next April. cbsprt.co/WYe9A2His numbers in Japan aren't as good as Tanaka's but still impressive. Maeda this year has put up a 2.71 ERA, with 7.5 K/9 and 2.2 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.128. In 2013, Tanaka's last year in Japan, he killed it with a 1.27 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.4 BB/9 and a WHIP of .943. Compare their career numbers and the gap narrows to a virtual tie: Maeda: 2.45 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 2 BB/9 and a 1.056 WHIP. Tanaka: 2.30 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 and a WHIP of 1.108. I think he'll be seeking six years and probably $11-$12 million/year. We'd also pay a $20 million posting fee. I'd love to splurge on Lester (though I don't expect that to happen) and, if the FO's evaluation of Maeda is good, to sign him, too. We'll have added two rotation pieces, including a No. 1, without giving up a draft pick. The rest of the rotation would fill in nicely with Buchholz, RDLR and Joe Kelly. When the inevitable injury or under-performance hits, we could pull a starter up from the group of Webster, Owen, Barnes and Brian Johnson - whoever's pitching best in AAA at the time. Thoughts?
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 13, 2014 12:37:21 GMT -5
On Maeda......based on the scouting reports I have read......I am going to say he's a back end guy. The red sox have plenty of those.
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Post by moonstone2 on Sept 13, 2014 12:50:47 GMT -5
Werner basically said the other day that they have "a lot of money to spend" and he strongly implied they would go after a top starter. To me that means Lester, Scherzer or Shields. I think they make a real strong run at Lester and may even be favored to sign him. They would like the no QO attached and they know who he is. My bet is they will go near Tanaka money even to get him signed. And at minimum they will make offers to at least one of the secondary line starters like Liriano or Santana. I would like Liriano, but it is looking like Liriano will be getting a QO, which could well mess us up some: blog.steelcitybuzz.com/2014/04/14/why-liriano-could-get-the-qualifying-offer/It doesn't seem that the Sox would want to sign the 36 year old Aramis Ramirez but I could see them making a run at JJ Hardy for SS and move Xander to 3rd. Or Hanley for 3rd. They have some depth options at 3rd in case Hanley gets hurt again. Some teams may not want to go top dollar for Hanley due to make up and injury concerns. And we do seem to need a 3rd baseman unfortunately. I don't get why anyone cares what Tom Werner says. Is there any evidence whatsoever that he's involved at all in baseball ops? When Werner speaks he's speaking for the entire 3 man ownership group. They have ultimate authority over baseball operations. If the ownership group says they are signing free agents they are signing free agenrs. Irregaedless of if baseball opps thinks it's a good idea or not . That's why I don't put a lot if stock into.the Bradford article. The loudest fans want to see the team spend money and that's what will happen. If they don't the constant refrain about how the ownership group is siphoning money to Liverpool and treating the Sox like the Millwaukee Brewers will grow liouder.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 13, 2014 14:47:56 GMT -5
I wasn't aware Maeda's career numbers were that close but the "what have you done for me lately" index isn't that close. I could see them kicking the tires pretty strongly for him though and maybe even signing him if the value is decent. They sure don't like giving up picks.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 14, 2014 9:19:46 GMT -5
When Werner speaks he's speaking for the entire 3 man ownership group. They have ultimate authority over baseball operations. Does he though? I'm not sure I buy that.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
Posts: 2,966
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Post by TearsIn04 on Sept 14, 2014 10:01:13 GMT -5
When Werner speaks he's speaking for the entire 3 man ownership group. They have ultimate authority over baseball operations. Does he though? I'm not sure I buy that. I have to think that Werner - in this instance, at least - is speaking for ownership. In fact, I think what he's saying is pretty self-evident and obvious. B-Ref estimates the RS payroll for next year at $113 million. That leaves $76 million before they'd hit the luxury tax threshold. They've shown they're willing to spend close to the luxury tax number or over it year in and year out and I wouldn't expect 2015 to be any different. The B-Ref page appears to show players' actual salaries, not the AAV, which is what's used to calculate luxury tax penalties. But in the case of the 2015 RS, I don't think there's much difference between the actual payouts and the AAVs. www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2014-payroll-salaries.shtml
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