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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 13:43:08 GMT -5
JMEI - I like your plan generally but I'm not comfortable with Headley at 4/60. I'd gladly take him on a 1-year overpay or even a 2-year deal but I think 4 years is too far. Yes, he's got about 4WAR this year but I don't think you can count on the ridiculous 2014 defensive metrics for the next four years and there have been signs of decline at the plate. Seems reasonable to estimate 2-4 WAR next year and maybe even 2016 but I don't think the upside in the first two years justifies taking on years 3&4. You're right that he won't be as good defensively next year, but he should also bounce back some offensively (remember, he's a career 113 wRC+ hitter). On the whole, he conservatively projects to be something like a three win player. At $7m a win (which should be the $/WAR going rate this offseason), to be worth $60m, Headley only needs to accumulate 8.5 wins over the course of the contract. If you think he's a three win player the first couple years, he only needs to be a win-and-a-half player over the next two years for the deal to be worth it. Or alternatively, if you want to use Dave Cameron's "knock a half win off every year," if he's 3, 2.5, 2, 1.5, that's still a projected nine wins and a contract with some surplus value.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 14:04:16 GMT -5
I think I'd be way closer to the 3/39 contract for Headley than 4/60. Maybe 3/42-45. If that's not enough, so be it.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Sept 23, 2014 14:05:32 GMT -5
I found this nugget on rotographs www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-starting-pitcher-xbabip-overperformers/"After missing about two and a half months of the season with a variety of maladies, it would appear that Mat Latos hasn’t lost a step since returning. But it’s been a ridiculous .213 BABIP and a suppressed 4.9% HR/FB ratio that has hidden the steep decline in his skills. It’s true that he has induced a sky high rate of pop-ups, but he has also allowed line drives at a higher than league average clip. Of course, both those batted ball types should be accounted for in the xBABIP formula. The red flags abound, from a career low SwStk% below 8% (the first time it’s dipped below even 10%), to fastball velocity being down two miles per hour to a strikeout rate in free fall. And more worrisome is that his slider usage has dipped considerably, probably owing to not wanting to put as much stress on his elbow. SELL SELL SELL!"
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 14:21:55 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 23, 2014 14:28:44 GMT -5
I found this nugget on rotographs www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/the-starting-pitcher-xbabip-overperformers/"After missing about two and a half months of the season with a variety of maladies, it would appear that Mat Latos hasn’t lost a step since returning. But it’s been a ridiculous .213 BABIP and a suppressed 4.9% HR/FB ratio that has hidden the steep decline in his skills. It’s true that he has induced a sky high rate of pop-ups, but he has also allowed line drives at a higher than league average clip. Of course, both those batted ball types should be accounted for in the xBABIP formula. The red flags abound, from a career low SwStk% below 8% (the first time it’s dipped below even 10%), to fastball velocity being down two miles per hour to a strikeout rate in free fall. And more worrisome is that his slider usage has dipped considerably, probably owing to not wanting to put as much stress on his elbow. SELL SELL SELL!" agree with some of this, but LD% is practically useless. It has even more variance year to year than BABIP, and it's not because Line Drives are not repeatable. If you've ever played baseball or watched it on a regular basis, you know that some hitters definitely hit more line drives than others, and it is a repeatable skill. However, the problem with LD% is scorer bias. If a ball lands in play, the scorer is almost always going to call it a line drive unless it's blatantly obvious it's a fly ball or a ground ball. Same thing with if a ball is caught, the scorer is much, much less likely to label it a line drive unless it's blatantly obvious
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 14:29:45 GMT -5
Also, I kind of wish they'd exclude IFFB from pitcher BABIP as a standard. There isn't much luck involved with having IFFB get caught for outs.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 23, 2014 14:47:13 GMT -5
I think there is reason to value 'power' though, its just that we shouldn't measure it by counting the number of 30+ HR hitters (and I'm not saying you don't know that). The 2013 team slugged .446 (ISO: .169) vs. this years team .366 (ISO: .124). I think its a big reason why we're 15th in the league in on-base percentage, but 27th in scoring runs. This is absolutely correct. I crunched the numbers a while ago, but if you compare Runs Scored with any team offensive metric; the two best correlations are with wOBA and Slg. It actually surprised me to learn that. That being said; I don't think you can build a successful offense based solely on SLG%. I prefer to focus on good hitters in general. When it comes to team construction I prefer a better offense to a better defense. I'll take a team that hits at an above average clip with middle of the pack defense to one that's front of the pack defense but middle of the pack offense. I can't find much fault with JMEI's projected team aside from the fact that I doubt those trades happen. The correct gist is there and upgrades from his projection at offense are significantly more expensive ($ or players), for example: I think Panda gets 2 more years and $40M more than Headley for what is only a slight upgrade in floor.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 23, 2014 14:56:46 GMT -5
I think I'd be way closer to the 3/39 contract for Headley than 4/60. Maybe 3/42-45. If that's not enough, so be it. I'd lay money down it won't come close. We need to look at the market, at this point. There's such a dearth of high-quality position players that it will drive up the price of the talent that is available. I think the MFY will be more than happy to meet that higher price, even at the cost of carrying the steroidal one's salary as well. Otherwise, I'm down with jmei's plan. Well thought-out.
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Post by joshv02 on Sept 23, 2014 15:16:10 GMT -5
I crunched the numbers a while ago, but if you compare Runs Scored with any team offensive metric; the two best correlations are with wOBA and Slg. It actually surprised me to learn that. (An aside, but that has generally not been true for all studies I've ever seen -- generally, OBP has a higher correlation with runs scored than SLG, though it isn't a huge margin. This is why historically OBP is usually considered 1.5xSLG in overall value. That is context dependent and could change in 2014.)
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 23, 2014 15:19:39 GMT -5
I wouldn't go anywhere near Headley at 3/39. I like his defense but he is not worth that kind of cash to me.
And I don't like signing fat players entering their late 20s ( Sandoval ). I see the numbers and he's not that old but he is going to decline and he will cost a lot.
It's always an equation where what is the "incremental" benefit of player A vs B and how much is it worth to you. If option B is Mookie Betts or Xander at third, dirt cheap, NWIH I'm paying $40 mil plus for the Panda or Headley as option A.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2014 15:32:39 GMT -5
I wouldn't go anywhere near Headley at 3/39. I like his defense but he is not worth that kind of cash to me. And I don't like signing fat players entering their late 20s ( Sandoval ). I see the numbers and he's not that old but he is going to decline and he will cost a lot. It's always an equation where what is the "incremental" benefit of player A vs B and how much is it worth to you. If option B is Mookie Betts or Xander at third, dirt cheap, NWIH I'm paying $40 mil plus for the Panda or Headley as option A.[/b] I think this is right. Sadly, all signs point to the Sox not thinking this way. Maybe they change course over the winter. Or trades make it moot.
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Post by jclmontana on Sept 23, 2014 15:46:10 GMT -5
First cut of jmei's 2014 offseason plan (comments welcome): Assumption: $60m to spend (haven't done the math-- this might be too high or too low) Moves:Trade Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Ranaudo to CIN for Mat Latos (+1m AAV) Trade Allen Webster and German Taveras to HOU for Jason Castro (+4) I think some variant of the first proposal, Cespedes plus young guy pitcher for established 1/2 is probably going to happen, but that Latos, while a reasonable guess, is really just a placeholder to indicate that this type of trade is going to happen. Heck, it almost has to happen: the sox are not going to get very good value holding on to all of the AAA glut, some have to go. But I think the cost of that sort of trade is going to be higher than anticipated. The proposed trade for Castro ("but, but, but, we don't do trade proposals on the main board!") seems a little far-fetched. Just last year (2013) he was almost a 5 WAR player, and he would be brought in as a starter? Or a backup? The Astros seem to have replacements ready to go in-house, so he could be available, but they will market him like a recent AS, with the asking price to match. If he is brought in as a backup, it seems like a huge luxury, and if he is brought in as a starter, it seems like a waste of Vasquez's defensive skills (prospect homer alert!). I think the best part of Jmei's post is that it reminds us that it can be hard to find worthwhile upgrades and that incremental (but important upgrades) are expensive and not always obvious.
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Post by soxfan1615 on Sept 23, 2014 15:53:50 GMT -5
Why would the Astros trade Castro? Hes young and cheap. Someone like Miguel Montero makes more sense.
About the Mookie/Xander 3B thing, Ben has stated multiple times that Betts will not play 3B and please stop with the Mookie to SS, Xander to 3B thing. Mookie was moved off SS, sure he's athletic but the Sox clearly still don't think he has what it takes to be a SS, because they haven't moved him back.
Signing Sandoval or Headley makes tons of sense because they fill a huge hole with lousy alternatives right now, and it's not that big of a deal to block Deven Marrero or Garin Cecchini
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 16:03:47 GMT -5
I'm not interested in Xander at 3B based on what I saw this year.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2014 16:14:31 GMT -5
I'm not interested in Xander at 3B based on what I saw this year. You shouldn't be interested in him at ss on what you saw this year. Guy is going to have to hit big time. I think he will.
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 16:55:15 GMT -5
I'm not interested in Xander at 3B based on what I saw this year. You shouldn't be interested in him at ss on what you saw this year. Guy is going to have to hit big time. I think he will. He looks a lot better at SS.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2014 17:02:15 GMT -5
You shouldn't be interested in him at ss on what you saw this year. Guy is going to have to hit big time. I think he will. He looks a lot better at SS.
[/b] Better at ss, yes. A lot better, no. He is a bad defender. Can he improve? yes. I'm just going on what I've seen. Sox better hope Napoli stays healthy next year. An average or below average first baseman will not be able to bail Xander out on the bad throws.
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Post by Gwell55 on Sept 23, 2014 17:46:21 GMT -5
He looks a lot better at SS.
[/b] Better at ss, yes. A lot better, no. He is a bad defender. Can he improve? yes. I'm just going on what I've seen. Sox better hope Napoli stays healthy next year. An average or below average first baseman will not be able to bail Xander out on the bad throws. [/quote] Another thing he needs to seriously work on is his turning double plays. Jerry was noting the other day that he never uses his forward momentum to reach the bag and then fire to first. Since I started watching I do notice every time he reaches the bag he steps out towards right field than throws to first. If he is running to the bag on an angle to head a straight direction to first he still goes out to right field to try and make the throw and it takes to long. He has to cross the bag towards first or he will never make that throw with any purpose.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Sept 23, 2014 18:39:45 GMT -5
Better at ss, yes. A lot better, no. He is a bad defender. Can he improve? yes. I'm just going on what I've seen. Sox better hope Napoli stays healthy next year. An average or below average first baseman will not be able to bail Xander out on the bad throws. [/quote] Another thing he needs to seriously work on is his turning double plays. Jerry was noting the other day that he never uses his forward momentum to reach the bag and then fire to first. Since I started watching I do notice every time he reaches the bag he steps out towards right field than throws to first. If he is running to the bag on an angle to head a straight direction to first he still goes out to right field to try and make the throw and it takes to long. He has to cross the bag towards first or he will never make that throw with any purpose. [/quote] [/b] I think he has gotten a lot better going to his left which he was really bad at in the beginning of the year and also charging/bare handed plays. He needs to work on his throw to first especially going to his right on a back hand (i don't know if anybody has noticed but he has a short step to first and looks like hes gonna fall over) the double play deal, and his first step.
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Post by xanderbogaerts2 on Sept 23, 2014 18:42:53 GMT -5
And is there any valve in Buchholz trade wise? Could he be a piece if we took back say Phillips+cash in a Cueto or Latos deal? Jmei what do you think?
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Post by tonyj1973 on Sept 23, 2014 19:21:48 GMT -5
Sure I agree. But there are too much needs. Starting pitching ( Two aces at least and 3rd decent starter ). Lefhanded reliever ( Miller ). Balancing too right handed line up. Productive 3B man. Everyday 1B man ( 100 games a season don´t fix). But I insist Starting pitching is the main topic and Matzusaka did not do well but Darvish, Tanaka & Koruda bring tremendous references. I see Maeda in the mix at rasonable cost Just because a player is Japanese and had good stats in the NPB doesn't mean he's going to pitch like previous Japanese aces. The Sox have 40m to spend and that's not enough to fill all of the needs laid out in your post Scouting an NPB stat line is no way to make those decisions. Maeda will want to be paid like Tanaka, but he's not going to pitch like him or Darvish. Dismissing what professionals have said about a player and focusing on his stat line will leave you dissapointed. Maybe doesn´t mean the opposite either due to you say it. This team has a lot of holes and some very creative desicions to take and only one thing is absolute: with WMB at 3B, Nap playing less than 2/3 of 162 games with mediocre production, the worst starting rotation in ALE, very questionable bullpen and a core of young players who need to demostrate a ton I do not feel confortable at all for next year. In all Baseball Red Sox have been: Hitting:22nd pre all star - 25th post all star. Almost steady but very bad Pitching: 14th pre all star - 26th post all star. Terrible and unacceptable Fielding: Not too bad 11th over all season . Just Mediocre So with these numbers I can figure out how long and heavy Ben´s off season will be trying to build a competetive team or at least trying to ENTERTAIN
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Post by larrycook on Sept 23, 2014 19:27:35 GMT -5
I think we still need to pass on Headley.
Move bogey to 3rd and find a replacement short stop. Ie: trade for tulo.
Betts has to play! Plain and simple.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 23, 2014 20:06:11 GMT -5
I could be talked into an overpay for JJ Hardy and moving Xander to 3rd but Mookie has got to play. It's axiomatic.
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Post by tonyj1973 on Sept 23, 2014 20:41:49 GMT -5
If you are The Boston Red Sox you have to understand that you play in the most competitive, hard and beautifull league of all baseball. You have to understand that you are the black or white along with Yankees. That means that You have the challenge of being better than Yanks, O´s, Jays and Rays. So to compete against them you have to have the right pieces.
Remember when Red Sox was one of the most fearsome team in baseball with Papi & Manny tandem? What a talented & balanced team they were. No one team in ten years has been more succesfull so you have to do something creative, attractive and effective to be a winning team AGAIN
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Post by raftsox on Sept 24, 2014 10:16:31 GMT -5
I crunched the numbers a while ago, but if you compare Runs Scored with any team offensive metric; the two best correlations are with wOBA and Slg. It actually surprised me to learn that. (An aside, but that has generally not been true for all studies I've ever seen -- generally, OBP has a higher correlation with runs scored than SLG, though it isn't a huge margin. This is why historically OBP is usually considered 1.5xSLG in overall value. That is context dependent and could change in 2014.) Further down this tangent: since 2004 (somewhat arbitrarily chosen) wOBA, SLG, OBP, AVG, ISOP, wRC+ are the order of correlation. wOBA = 0.9057. SLG = 0.8434. OBP = 0.7938. The others are much lower. I was surprised to learn this since I too had always seen reports on the correlation of OBP to runs as more important.
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