SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 21, 2014 23:43:23 GMT -5
Probably best to stay away from conjecture about responsibility, that includes targeting the medical staff. We have no idea what the doctor-patient relationship is, what risks he was advised of, and how he chose to deal with that. My preference is for evidence-based discussion. Without that evidence, it's all guesswork.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Sept 22, 2014 7:32:05 GMT -5
Matsusaka dominated in the WBC so I am not sure how that is meaningful. Read the Ben Badler report from last year as opposed to examing his NPB stats. Maeda doesn't have the devestating out pitch that Tanaka has. He can probably be a four or five right away, but I think the Sox have other needs. Sure I agree. But there are too much needs. Starting pitching ( Two aces at least and 3rd decent starter ). Lefhanded reliever ( Miller ). Balancing too right handed line up. Productive 3B man. Everyday 1B man ( 100 games a season don´t fix). But I insist Starting pitching is the main topic and Matzusaka did not do well but Darvish, Tanaka & Koruda bring tremendous references. I see Maeda in the mix at rasonable cost Just because a player is Japanese and had good stats in the NPB doesn't mean he's going to pitch like previous Japanese aces. The Sox have 40m to spend and that's not enough to fill all of the needs laid out in your post Scouting an NPB stat line is no way to make those decisions. Maeda will want to be paid like Tanaka, but he's not going to pitch like him or Darvish. Dismissing what professionals have said about a player and focusing on his stat line will leave you dissapointed.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2014 8:51:20 GMT -5
I had one of those injuries once. It even made the nurses in the emergency room nauseous, especially the one who got it back in place. It took quite a while for the hand to feel right, like several months. Same here. I broke it at a right angle and then after that healed, it dislocated about 10 times and I'd just pop it back in. It was a pain when I played hockey, because I had to take my glove off in the middle of a shift and fix it. My pinkie to this day bends backwards at the middle knuckle at a close to 90 degree angle. It also locks so I can't close it and grip things with it until I bend it with my other hand. The tendons are gone. I wouldn't be surprised if Napoli needed surgery. I could have used it. But then again, it might be completely different.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 9:06:05 GMT -5
First cut of jmei's 2014 offseason plan (comments welcome):
Assumption: $60m to spend (haven't done the math-- this might be too high or too low)
Moves: Trade Yoenis Cespedes and Anthony Ranaudo to CIN for Mat Latos (+1m AAV) Trade Allen Webster and German Taveras to HOU for Jason Castro (+4) Re-sign Koji Uehara for one year, $10m (+10) Sign Jon Lester for six years, $144m (+24) Sign Chase Headley for four years, $60m (+15) Sign Neal Cotts for two years, $8m (+4) (Total: +$58m)
Lineup (versus RHP): Betts RF Pedroia 2B Ortiz DH Napoli 1B Bogaerts SS Headley 3B Castillo CF Nava LF Vazquez C
Craig LF/1B Victorino RF Holt IF/OF Castro C
Rotation/bullpen: Lester Latos Buchholz Kelly De La Rosa
Uehara Tazawa Mujica Cotts Workman Wilson Layne
Comments: not necessarily the most talented team in the world, but an extraordinarily deep one. Every hitter but Vazquez in the starting lineup projects to be an above-average hitter, with Ortiz and Napoli as your tentpoles, Pedroia, Headley, and Nava/Craig as your steady veterans, and high-upside guys in Betts, Bogaerts, and Castillo. Only Bogaerts and maybe Nava/Craig look like below-average defenders, so the defense should be above-average. The bench is full of guys who you wouldn't worry about stepping into the starting lineup in case of injury/underperformance (Victorino in particular is fine Castillo/Betts/Craig insurance), and there's a good amount of depth in Pawtucket beyond that.
The pitching side could be a little stronger. I think Latos is a fine buy-low candidate, but he could also continue to be injury-prone and see his velo continue to decline. Buchholz, Kelly, and De La Rosa are higher-risk than I'd prefer, but the fact that the PawSox rotation is stacked with legit prospects (Owens, Rodriguez, Barnes, Johnson, Wright, Escobar) helps mitigate some of that risk. Lester is the anchor I reluctantly give an expensive, long-term contract to. The bullpen is solid but not great. I'm not too concerned about Uehara's August/September-- even during basically the worst stretch of his career, he had a 9:1 K/BB (I'm actually more concerned that someone offers him 2/$24m or something). I like Andrew Miller but he'll be too expensive to re-sign. The crop of left-handed relief pitching is actually pretty weak, but Cotts has been great enough since returning to the majors.
|
|
|
Post by awall on Sept 23, 2014 9:47:55 GMT -5
Wondering why you'd trade for Castro over one more year of Ross before Swihart (hopefully) is ready?
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 9:54:29 GMT -5
Mostly that Ross can't step in and be the starter if Vazquez struggles or is injured (and Butler/Lavarnway are replacement-level backups) and Swihart is best served spending all of 2015 in Pawtucket. It's also that it's hard to upgrade on any of the projected starters (at least without delving into probably unrealistic Stanton/Heyward/etc. trades), and so I want the backup guys to be as strong as possible.
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 23, 2014 9:57:03 GMT -5
Probably because Castro hits LH and Ross sucks at hitting?
Actually, If, as has been mentioned, Swihart may be ML ready by midseason, I'd consider Lavarnway for a short stint. Vasquez, at that point, will have almost a full year of experience. Ryan would probably play only against left handers and on afternoon games after a night game.
Varitek should assume a bigger role in helping our receivers, not just those in the minors.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 23, 2014 10:00:31 GMT -5
JMEI, You are one of the more level headed fans on this site and don't want you to take this as criticism in any way. Some of the moves you pointed out as possibilities are questionable to some people and may be open to debate indeed.
1) You REALLY think Headley can find any takers on a 4y deal out there, much less someone like Boston that tries to be careful with money since Epstein is gone? 4/70 is all Boston offered Lester and he was humming along when that deal was offered. 4/60 for a guy who has done nothing but struggle? I'd question Cherrington involvement on anything with headley over 1y, maybe a team option at 2.
2)Cespedes and Ranaudo/Workman/Wright/Webster for latos? Sign me up! Good point there and better than spending 100m+ on Lester, or close to it on Shields.
3) Something you don't have on there, but I want to bring up.. Miami has a full rotation again. Try to get Jarrod Cosart and if they want him? Then try for Eovaldi.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Sept 23, 2014 10:10:12 GMT -5
As I have previously written, I am not big on Headley. I doubt he will be any better than Cecchini as a hitter, although his D might be better. If a 3B is to be acquired, I would much prefer Sandoval and even more, Beltre - but I don't think he will be available. I also am a bigger fan of Cespedes than some others on the board, and would try to extend him before trading him. (However, I would not be averse to trading him if he could not be extended). I still have reservations about Castillo.
There is a problem with power in this lineup. First of all the two real power hitters are getting old, and I think the risks there are too great to be so dependent on them. If Bogaerts gets better and becomes more of a power hitter, and I think he could, then that certainly will help.
It's not a bad lineup, but I don't think it's a 90+ win lineup.
I don't know anything about Latos, so I can't comment on him. I don't trust Buchholz to be the third starter on this team. I like Kelly and De La Rosa as the best bets among the younger pitchers - but I think Barnes is a strong dark horse - but maybe better for the pen. I do think the Sox will re-sign Lester, and to be a championship team they will need to get another really good starter. I also support re-signing Uehara.
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2014 10:21:28 GMT -5
Lot of good moves jmei. I agree with most.
I wouldn't sign Headley, but anything that keeps me from watching WMB swinging at air is a plus.
Really hope the Sox sign Lester. Don't think they will but will be the first to say I was wrong if they do.
Agree they should move Webster . Some GM's must still be drooling over the stuff.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 10:21:46 GMT -5
Headley is a really good player for reasons I discussed here. I really cannot understand why folks don't like him. Just because he'll never be as good as his 2012 self doesn't mean he's not worth adding. He's one of the better third base defenders in the league, and he's a better hitter that ya'll are giving him credit for. He's been a 3+ win player in each of the last three years by both fWAR and bWAR, and getting him for $15m a year might even be a bargain. He's also only 30 and won't cost a qualifying offer. Headley fits perfectly into the Victorino and Napoli mold of buying low on a really good player having a down year. This down year isn't even that bad, by the way. He's hit .238/.322/.364 (98 wRC+), which is just a little worse than the league-average 3B (.259/.318/.399, 101 WRC+) on a park-adjusted basis. A 50/50 ZiPS/Steamer projection has him as a .256/.339/.414 hitter (110 wRC+) going forward, compared to Cecchini's .265/.336/.373 (98 wRC+) projected hitting line and 10+ run (and that's being conservative) worse defense. Headley looks to be a two-win upgrade on Garin, and that's worth paying for.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Sept 23, 2014 10:21:46 GMT -5
1) You REALLY think Headley can find any takers on a 4y deal out there, Yes. Plus defensive third basemen who get on base are very rare right now. Even if he's a 10-15 homer guy he's in the top 10 at the position. If he hits 30 homers like he did in 2012 then he's the best third baseman in baseball. EDIT: I think the Yankees go higher than 4/$60 to keep him though.
|
|
|
Post by jclmontana on Sept 23, 2014 11:08:01 GMT -5
B-Ref has added Castillo's money to its 2015 payroll projection and now puts the RS at $123.8 million. That puts them $65.2 million short of $189 million. But keep in mind, they'd prefer to start the season a few million below the threshold to give them room for in-season acquisitions. A quibble, perhaps, and I am no capologist, but don't we have to account for benefits, about 10-12 million? Which would give the Sox 50-55 million to spend, and I do agree that they would probably keep some wiggle room for mid-season acquisitions, so maybe 50 million is a more realistic number.
|
|
|
Post by Smittyw on Sept 23, 2014 11:23:33 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup?
|
|
|
Post by sibbysisti on Sept 23, 2014 11:40:20 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup? And isn't this the same thing that happened to Oakland? Its run production dropped off dramatically after it traded Cespedes. Lester has been successful in his A's stint. But he only pitches every fifth day.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 23, 2014 11:42:02 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup? Based off of Latos's interleague stats, I would not be too excited to acquire him. Not too sure how his stuff would translate.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 11:43:10 GMT -5
Here's my clumsy attempt to figure out 2015 payroll based on AAV. Please let me know if you think I've made an error and I'll correct it. Projection of pre-arb guys is based on my above roster; if you think more pre-arb guys will make the roster, add a million or two to the mix. I was extra generous with all the arbitration projections. I used Alex Speier's past work as a framework. Salary numbers from Cot's. Napoli: $16m Ortiz: $16m Victorino: $13m Pedroia: $13.75m Cespedes: $9m Buchholz: $7.5m Castillo: $10.4m Craig: $6.2m Mujica: $4.75m Payment to Dodgers: $3.9m Tazawa: arb2 (est. $3m) Nava: arb1 (est. $2m) RDLR: arb1? (I think he's Super 2 eligible) (est. $2m) Medical benefits: $11m Pre-arb guys (x8): est. $5m (Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Holt, Kelly, Workman, Wilson, Layne) 40-man roster benefits: $2m Emergency cash (callups, wiggle room): $5m Total: $130.5m Estimated cash to spend: $58.5m
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 11:56:13 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup? I think the dropoff from Cespedes to Nava/Craig in left field is relatively minor (between a half-win and a win) and more than made up for by the upgrade from Ranaudo (or whatever other SP you like) to Latos. Plus, there's no reason to fetishize power. That lineup is filled with above-average hitters, and the 2013 Red Sox demonstrated that you don't need multiple 30+ HR guys to have an elite offense. ADD: to clarify, I don't think the above lineup projects to be an elite offense. With reasonable health, I think it should be more around the top 10 or so, which is a solid enough showing if the pitching comes through. And if guys like Betts, Bogaerts, and Castillo break out, or Craig returns to his 2011-13 form, or if Pedroia shows that injuries hampered him more than we thought these last two years, it certainly could be one of the two or three best offenses in the league.
|
|
|
Post by ramireja on Sept 23, 2014 12:10:29 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup? I think the dropoff from Cespedes to Nava/Craig in left field is relatively minor (between a half-win and a win) and more than made up for by the upgrade from Ranaudo (or whatever other SP you like) to Latos. Plus, there's no reason to fetishize power. That lineup is filled with above-average hitters, and the 2013 Red Sox demonstrated that you don't need multiple 30+ HR guys to have an elite offense. I think there is reason to value 'power' though, its just that we shouldn't measure it by counting the number of 30+ HR hitters (and I'm not saying you don't know that). The 2013 team slugged .446 (ISO: .169) vs. this years team .366 (ISO: .124). I think its a big reason why we're 15th in the league in on-base percentage, but 27th in scoring runs.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 23, 2014 12:31:34 GMT -5
That's a fair point. But I think there are a fair number of solid power guys in that lineup. Guys like Headley, Bogaerts, and probably Castillo and Betts should be good for a .140+ ISO. Pedroia and the LF platoon might be able to get close as well with bounce-back years. By the way, the other big reason for that runs-scored disparity? The Red Sox are the third-worst baserunning team in the league, with the bottom three (Boston, ChicagoAL, and St. Louis) forming a tier of terribleness all their own. With Victorino injured most of the year and Ellsbury gone, there was little speed in the lineup. What made it worse was that some of the fastest guys on the team (Bogaerts, Bradley) were terrible at getting on base while some of the slowest guys on the team (Ortiz, Napoli) were the guys who were on base the most. That, and Farrell and his coaching staff ran into a ton of outs earlier in the season. With Betts and Castillo added to the lineup, that should be a lesser issue next year.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2014 12:33:22 GMT -5
Here's my clumsy attempt to figure out 2015 payroll based on AAV. Please let me know if you think I've made an error and I'll correct it. Projection of pre-arb guys is based on my above roster; if you think more pre-arb guys will make the roster, add a million or two to the mix. I was extra generous with all the arbitration projections. I used Alex Speier's past work as a framework. Salary numbers from Cot's. Napoli: $16m Ortiz: $16m Victorino: $13m Pedroia: $13.75m Cespedes: $9m Buchholz: $7.5m Castillo: $10.4m Craig: $6.2m Mujica: $4.75m Payment to Dodgers: $3.9m Tazawa: arb2 (est. $3m) Nava: arb1 (est. $2m) RDLR: arb1? (I think he's Super 2 eligible) (est. $2m) Medical benefits: $11m Pre-arb guys (x8): est. $5m (Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez, Holt, Kelly, Workman, Wilson, Layne) 40-man roster benefits: $2m Emergency cash (callups, wiggle room): $5m Total: $130.5m Estimated cash to spend: $58.5m I have this bookmarked and it's pretty good. docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AnqwIrDH6lrddDFpOHNxVWxLT3R1UkNxRlU1al9BTVE#gid=0
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Sept 23, 2014 12:34:40 GMT -5
Headley is a really good player for reasons I discussed here. I really cannot understand why folks don't like him. Just because he'll never be as good as his 2012 self doesn't mean he's not worth adding. He's one of the better third base defenders in the league, and he's a better hitter that ya'll are giving him credit for. He's been a 3+ win player in each of the last three years by both fWAR and bWAR, and getting him for $15m a year might even be a bargain. He's also only 30 and won't cost a qualifying offer. Headley fits perfectly into the Victorino and Napoli mold of buying low on a really good player having a down year. This down year isn't even that bad, by the way. He's hit .238/.322/.364 (98 wRC+), which is just a little worse than the league-average 3B (.259/.318/.399, 101 WRC+) on a park-adjusted basis. A 50/50 ZiPS/Steamer projection has him as a .256/.339/.414 hitter (110 wRC+) going forward, compared to Cecchini's .265/.336/.373 (98 wRC+) projected hitting line and 10+ run (and that's being conservative) worse defense. Headley looks to be a two-win upgrade on Garin, and that's worth paying for. I think he's a good ball player. Don't want to go 4 years on a guy who turns 31 next May and has had health problems. Also agree with James that it may take more than 60 mil to get it done. The projected salary numbers have been under on the top guys at each position for several years now On the salary cap I thought Clay was due 12 mil for 2015.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Sept 23, 2014 12:55:17 GMT -5
Don't you then take something of a step back offensively (negating the purpose of acquiring Cespedes in the first place) by going back to Nava in left field and Ortiz and Napoli as the main sources of power in the lineup? Based off of Latos's interleague stats, I would not be too excited to acquire him. Not too sure how his stuff would translate. In agreement with respect to Latos. I just don't see him transitioning well to the AL, let alone the ALE.
|
|
|
Post by 111soxfan111 on Sept 23, 2014 12:55:58 GMT -5
JMEI - I like your plan generally but I'm not comfortable with Headley at 4/60. I'd gladly take him on a 1-year overpay or even a 2-year deal but I think 4 years is too far. Yes, he's got about 4WAR this year but I don't think you can count on the ridiculous 2014 defensive metrics for the next four years and there have been signs of decline at the plate. Seems reasonable to estimate 2-4 WAR next year and maybe even 2016 but I don't think the upside in the first two years justifies taking on years 3&4.
I don't like the idea of extending Cespedes (OBP? ack!) so if he can be the main chip to land a #3 type starter, count me in. The Nava/Craig LF platoon could be a weak spot but we should have emergency options to replace Craig vLHP (Hassan, Brentz, maybe even WMB). If Nava has a rough start to 2015, though, I don't know that we have another solution unless JBJ remembers how to hit in AAA ... maybe Cecchini? Like DanR, I've got reservations about Castillo. I'm not saying he won't be good but even if he turns out fine, I think it's a lot to expect him to come out producing early next season.
|
|
|
Post by p23w on Sept 23, 2014 13:26:04 GMT -5
That's a fair point. But I think there are a fair number of solid power guys in that lineup. Guys like Headley, Bogaerts, and probably Castillo and Betts should be good for a .140+ ISO. Pedroia and the LF platoon might be able to get close as well with bounce-back years. By the way, the other big reason for that runs-scored disparity? The Red Sox are the third-worst baserunning team in the league, with the bottom three (Boston, ChicagoAL, and St. Louis) forming a tier of terribleness all their own. With Victorino injured most of the year and Ellsbury gone, there was little speed in the lineup. What made it worse was that some of the fastest guys on the team (Bogaerts, Bradley) were terrible at getting on base while some of the slowest guys on the team (Ortiz, Napoli) were the guys who were on base the most. That, and Farrell and his coaching staff ran into a ton of outs earlier in the season. With Betts and Castillo added to the lineup, that should be a lesser issue next year. This is the problem with cherry picking stats to include players who did not play a full season on one team. Yes, our team speed (and run scoring) was diminished drastically with the loss of Ellsbury and Victorino. No, Bogaerts and Bradley are not among the fastest guys on the team. Castillo and Cespedes are much quicker. I would rate Holt a better base runner than either Bogaerts or Bradley. Heck Napoli is a very good base runner even if he is slower than Bogaerts or Bradley. I'm not sure how much speed Victorino brings with him in 2015. And if Craig is part of the mix, well I'd rate him a half step quicker than 38 year old Ortiz. A full season of Betts will/should be a huge boost to scoring runs for this offense, but I think we need to keep some of the new pieces with good speed and baserunning skills in the line-up and on the roster. The fall off in run scoring put additional pressure on the defense and the pitching staff. 2014 was the post card for this. From the late season additions to the roster I believe we have already seen a significant improvement in our run scoring potential for 2015. What I project for 2015 is a better team that will be both a challenge for field management and players alike as they seek to develop a winning team chemistry. Should be huge fun for the fan base. Just beware of expectations. After all, almost anything would be an improvement over 2014.
|
|
|