SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
|
Post by soxfan06 on Nov 25, 2014 9:14:55 GMT -5
Even if they trade Cespedes they still have Craig, Nava, Betts, Victorino, Castillo, Holt, Bradley and Ramirez for the OF. Does anyone think there is a chance they move Craig/Nava to 1st and trade Napoli? Go with an OF of Castillo, Betts, Ramirez? I just see very little trade value in Craig and Victorino at this point. The best Red Sox team has Napoli on it this year. I wouldn't downgrade at 1B. I'm not sure how you can say that definitively. Maybe the best "lineup" has Napoli in it, but if the Red Sox could actually swap Napoli+ for a significant upgrade on the mound then whoever they got on the mound + Craig/Nava could give us a better team than just Napoli.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Nov 25, 2014 9:17:36 GMT -5
I certainly agree that the lineup is better with Nap in it. But if his salary limits the other things that Boston can do to improve the overall team, then I don't agree with the statement.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 25, 2014 9:20:42 GMT -5
I certainly agree that the lineup is better with Nap in it. But if his salary limits the other things that Boston can do to improve the overall team, then I don't agree with the statement. Then there was no point in signing both Hanley and Pablo if Napoli had to be traded to accommodate that.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Nov 25, 2014 9:23:08 GMT -5
The best Red Sox team has Napoli on it this year. I wouldn't downgrade at 1B. I'm not sure how you can say that definitively. Maybe the best "lineup" has Napoli in it, but if the Red Sox could actually swap Napoli+ for a significant upgrade on the mound then whoever they got on the mound + Craig/Nava could give us a better team than just Napoli. I don't see that happening, but if it does, ok. If it doesn't happen, I'm not trading Napoli just to dump salary.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 25, 2014 9:23:30 GMT -5
Personally I'd rather have a world series than a good young hanley ramirez and anibal sanchez. I'm still glad we made the beckett trade. This isn't exactly the way it works. Of course you always want the WS win. But you can never guarantee it happens when a trade is made. I'm not trading Betts and Owens for anyone just because it worked in 2007. Though I'd probably do it for Sale. It did work in 2007 was my point. I agree on not trading betts, but i've always wondered why people regret the hanley trade when it worked.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2014 9:39:47 GMT -5
PedroelGrande, Philsoxfan, Thanks for the responses. The post wasn't really meant to be critical; it was meant be provocative. While I agree that the Red Sox trades have been reasonable, the value of the prospects traded has, over time, exceeded the value of the players acquired. The Red Sox are a very risk- averse team. They have done an excellent job in player development, but they have always managed to trade a couple of their top prospects for veterans. They have an organizational strategy that simultaneously lowers risk and ceiling. It has been successful, but there are limits to that success. This team hasn't had a 100 win season or won back-to-back division titles in my lifetime. I can't really complain about how the FO manages the team, but just once I'd like to see them not trade any of their really top prospects -- to take the high risk, high ceiling approach. I'm not sure what your issue is at this time. As of now, it's projected the Sox will have Xander (22 yo), Betts. (22), Vasquez (24) and Castillo (27) as four ninths of their lineup. How many young players do you want them to work in. All these guys are unproven, homegrown (Castillo sorta) guys the team has committed to. Maybe one gets traded in the right deal, but we don't know that so don't get ahead of things. I mean who else are we worried about them integrating? Won't get into ceilings or best fits for positions etc... Cecchini? Ok, but he's nice depth and still an easily have a home. He will benefit from more AAA reps and he could slide into a pits Napoli team either at first, third or left field. Swithart, these signings don't affect him as a catcher and see above... Marrero if Xander doesn't field better but starts raking then he can get moved to another spot. Margot and Devers are too far away to worry about now Bradley, Jr is the only guy who might get screwed but it's not impossible for him to slide in if it all came together and he capitalizes when given a chance however big or small Can they all fit? Not likely,but next year Nap is gone and Ortiz likely after that so two of them still could by rearranging the pieces. Plus, you can always trade a veteran to make room for a younger player. Of course half the lineup already are young guys
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2014 9:42:10 GMT -5
I don't know if this is silly or brilliant, but it's an idea.
For years I've been wondering, just how the hell do you make best use of surplus talent? The problem is that the team on the other end simply can't make use of all the talent you're willing to send their way.
For instance, what kind of pitcher could you get for Cespedes, Holt, Workman (available because you've re-signed Badenhop), Ranaudo, Cecchini, Marrero, and Coyle?
I think we all agree that that's a meaningless question. But it is not, I believe, meaningless because too many of those pieces aren't exceptional. The number 9 through 14 prospects in an exceptionally deep system are all top 10 prospects in an ordinary one, and top 10 prospects are not worthless. They are classic deal-sweeteners. Any one of those last four guys would be reasonable in a trade with Cespedes and Holt and/or Workman, where the other team would see him as making the difference between a trade not quite worth making, and one worth doing.
What we all sense is that you can't get an even better pitcher by piling on extra deal-sweeteners. But that's not because they magically lose value when combined. It's that teams don't have uses (or even roster spots) for that many players. Marrero is of real value to a team so weak at SS organizationally that they're looking at replacement level for the next few years, Cecchini ditto for 3B, Hoyle and Coyle (but not both!) ditto at 2B. But almost nobody needs all of these guys. Workman and Ranaudo are likewise redundant: to an organization that is unsure of where their competent 5th starter is going to come from the next few years, either one would be of real value, but almost no one would want them both.
So how about a series of trades, which is to say a three- or four-team deal? That way, you distribute your excess talent where it's actually needed and wanted.
Cespedes and some of the above for Porcello or Kennedy or Leake. Then that guy and more of the above for Iwakuma or Samardzija. And maybe , that guy and more of the above for Cueto (or Zimmerman, Cashner, Ross).
Presto: you've just proven my thesis, that you could get someone like Cueto for all of the above (and maybe some lottery ticket types from further down the prospect list). The Reds' one-year downgrade, for instance, from Cueto to Iwakuma isn't all that large, and if they really like Marrero as a likely upgrade to Cozart, then Cueto for Iwakuma and Marrero is hard for them to turn down. But it makes good sense for us, too, if we expect to never use Marrero at all.
Again, I don't know if this is silly or smart. But it's certainly worth thinking about.
|
|
|
Post by soxfan06 on Nov 25, 2014 9:44:48 GMT -5
I'm not sure how you can say that definitively. Maybe the best "lineup" has Napoli in it, but if the Red Sox could actually swap Napoli+ for a significant upgrade on the mound then whoever they got on the mound + Craig/Nava could give us a better team than just Napoli. I don't see that happening, but if it does, ok. If it doesn't happen, I'm not trading Napoli just to dump salary. I haven't seen anyone suggest dumping Napoli just to clear salary. If they want to do that moving Victorino, Craig and Cespedes is easy way to do that without hurting the team. But Napoli is likely our best trade piece. If we can use him to upgrade the staff, it wouldn't be a bad move. Obviously they shouldn't just trade him for the sake of trading him, but in the right situation, no doubt in my mind about it.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 25, 2014 9:54:03 GMT -5
It's smart but a logistical nightmare. Doesn't mean it shouldn't be done. However, a team like the Padres could actually use all this stuff so why not go get Ross?
Cespedes (clearly have money to spend) Ranaudo & Workman. (Room in rotation and or bullpen) Marrero (middle infielder) Cecchini (need a third baseman)
Is that too much to give up for Ross? Idk, I like that kid a lot.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Nov 25, 2014 9:57:30 GMT -5
Understand but I'm not going back in time. Now that Ramirez and Sandoval have been signed, Napoli might need to go to round out the rest of the 25-man (note, not a salary dump but you would gain that salary and assets that could be used to get a starter or replace those that you used to get a starter)
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Nov 25, 2014 10:50:04 GMT -5
Was Austin Maddox hurt last year? He only had 21ip
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Nov 25, 2014 11:14:37 GMT -5
How much time do the Sox have to clear roster space for Sandoval and Ramirez?
|
|
ianrs
Veteran
Posts: 2,443
|
Post by ianrs on Nov 25, 2014 11:18:44 GMT -5
I don't understand why everyone is trying to get rid of Napoli. If the Red Sox did that, it would be the Lackey trade all over again. Its not like we signed a 1B. If they are trying to win this year (which it sure looks like it), they better get blown away with an offer. Makes way more sense to move one or two of Victorino/Craig/Nava...deal from depth.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Nov 25, 2014 11:33:29 GMT -5
I definitely do not want Napoli traded. His position in the lineup is crucial to increasing the run production dramatically. The middle part of the Sox lineup - Ortiz, Ramirez, Sandoval and Napoli probably will be close to the best in baseball - assuming no major injuries. Why screw with that? This is exactly what the Sox need.
Furthermore, Napoli is a key leader on the team, along with Ortiz and Pedroia.
Finally, there is no need to trade him, none that makes any sense, anyway.
|
|
|
Post by The Town Sports Cards on Nov 25, 2014 11:39:42 GMT -5
I don't understand why everyone is trying to get rid of Napoli. If the Red Sox did that, it would be the Lackey trade all over again. Its not like we signed a 1B. If they are trying to win this year (which it sure looks like it), they better get blown away with an offer. Makes way more sense to move one or two of Victorino/Craig/Nava...deal from depth. Expect what team is going to offer us something for Victorino or Craig? No one unless we eat a bunch of salary which defeats the purpose. I'm not a big fan of trading Napoli, but he can get us something good in return, and we can try to fill in his position with platoons of guys like Nava, Craig, Hanley etc.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Nov 25, 2014 11:46:24 GMT -5
I don't see how the Sox can trade Victorino until he shows he still can play - so that is something for the spring, or later.
However, I think the Sox can get another team to take Craig, along with a couple of decent prospects in a deal in which they also absorb his salary. It isn't that extreme.
And I think there are several teams willing to take Cespedes and his salary. I suspect the Sox have a deal close to locked up already.
Platoons of Nava and Craig do not replace the power bat and OBP of Napoli.
|
|
|
Post by bmitchsox on Nov 25, 2014 11:59:39 GMT -5
I get that there is probably a deal close to happening for Cespedes, I just think it makes sense to keep his bat in the lineup. He really impressed me last year. I'd rather package say Napoli w prospects for a SP and put Hanley at 1st. This looks way too appealing to me ...
Betts - Pedroia - Ortiz - Cespedes - Sandoval - Ramirez - Castillo - Bogaerts - Vazquez
|
|
|
Post by iakovos11 on Nov 25, 2014 12:04:56 GMT -5
I get that there is probably a deal close to happening for Cespedes, I just think it makes sense to keep his bat in the lineup. He really impressed me last year. I'd rather package say Napoli w prospects for a SP and put Hanley at 1st. This looks way too appealing to me ... Betts - Pedroia - Ortiz - Cespedes - Sandoval - Ramirez - Castillo - Bogaerts - Vazquez Really? I'll take Napoli over Cespedes every day of the week and twice on Saturdays and Sundays. He should hit for as much power, is at least as good a defender and I'd argue a better defender, has much better OBP, and is a MUCH better clubhouse guy.
|
|
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Nov 25, 2014 12:12:34 GMT -5
I agree that both Napoli and Cespedes are marketable and would be worth keeping.
I'm also sure that once victorino and Craig establish health they too will be sought after.
I don't think it will take very long (mid spring say) for this to occur.
I don't think there will necessarily be a rush to move anyone.
I thought the Lackey deal was worthwhile at the time for both sides and now I supposed we can look forward to the reverse Lackey.
An expendable cost controlled arm with a above average upside everyday guy for a shorter term 2b or number three arm or even a 1b type by including lower end prospects.
I don't want betts, Xander, Swihart, Barnes, Owens, or Johnson to go, and I particularly like rdlr.
Any combination of the rest of the aaaa arms I'm ok with and I do think that will be enough to upgrade the middle of the rotation.
I would even move Buckholtz as part of an upgrade, and with his contract I do think there will be interested teams.
I
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 25, 2014 12:20:19 GMT -5
Trading Napoli for pitching and going with a Nava / Craig platoon at 1B is is a sideways move, and I hate sideways moves, and so should you. You can get the pitching you need by siging Lester and dealing Cespedes. A team with this much talent and money does not need to weaken itself at one position to strength itself elsewhere.
However, trading Napoli and excess talent for a LHH 1B who's as good or better and is controlled for more than one year -- that does make sense.
Goldschmidt and Rizzo are probably too valuable to grab. That leaves:
Freddie Freeman. Projected 4.2 WAR. Still just 25, and signed for 7/$129.875; AAV is $16.875M. Just barely credible that he could be had, and it would certainly mean dealing at least one top 5 prospect, which would seem to go against the organizational philosophy.
Brandon Belt. Projected 3.3 WAR, with some uncertainty after a down and injured year, but was good after his mid-September return. Will be 27, and arb eligible with three years of control left. Very interesting idea, which would be helped a lot if the Giants especially liked Cecchini.
Carlos Santana. Projected 2.7 WAR (Napoli is 2.6), will be 29, signed for 2/$15.45 or 3/$26.25; AAV is $4.25. Switch-hitter who's better from the left side but no slouch from the right (career 142 versus 122 wRC+). Not a good defender, but not awful, and can be your emergency catcher (where he is awful). A good enough hitter to credibly succeed Ortiz at DH.
Also ...
Adrian Gonzalez. Projected 3.4 WAR. Will be 33, and signed for 4/$85, with AAV of $22M. Not a lot of excess value as he moves into his decline years, and we're looking to trade talent for cheaper value, not take on more $20M+ contracts. Has a partial no-trade and would probably reject coming back to the land of the bean, cod, and CHB.
Joey Votto. Projected 4.4 WAR with huge error bars. Already 31, and signed for either 9/$213 or 10/$226. Full no-trade. Former superstar coming off a lost year. Same rationale as Gonzalez.
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 25, 2014 12:23:13 GMT -5
Pete Abraham ?@peteabe 14s15 seconds ago #RedSox announce Sandoval signing and DFA Ryan Lavarnway.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 25, 2014 12:23:31 GMT -5
I get that there is probably a deal close to happening for Cespedes, I just think it makes sense to keep his bat in the lineup. He really impressed me last year. I'd rather package say Napoli w prospects for a SP and put Hanley at 1st. This looks way too appealing to me ... Betts - Pedroia - Ortiz - Cespedes - Sandoval - Ramirez - Castillo - Bogaerts - Vazquez What impressed you? His thumping .719 OPS with us? The 7/48 BB/K? The graceful way he played the wall? Seriously, the only thing he did really well for us was hit an impressive bomb or unleash a great throw once in a while. Napoli offers comparable power production with vastly superior OBP skills. He's led MLB the last couple seasons in pitches seen per plate appearance, and that may be a particularly useful skill in 2015 since he's likely to be adjacent to a free-swinging Panda in the lineup. I'd still be receptive to moving him in a package for a very solid starter (one that YC can't fetch), and it'd allow Nava and Craig to slide into the lineup, where they could be quite productive in a platoon (albeit without Napoli's power). Thing is, though, I see no good matches out there for Napoli other than the Mariners.
|
|
|
Post by texs31 on Nov 25, 2014 12:35:32 GMT -5
Before I comment further on Napoli, I just want to be sure of something. This isn't the "Choose Your Adventure" thread right? ![???](//storage.proboards.com/forum/images/smiley/huh.png) I'm not saying I WANT to trade Napoli. I'm just trying to get in the heads of the FO. Given what we know: 1. Boston has added Sandoval and Ramirez at very high AAV 2. Boston STILL needs 2 SPs (and, at least, one of them will likely require more than just money to acquire) 3. They have other needs including the bullpen and have been rumored to be willing to offer Miller big money. 4. Victorino and Craig, 2 other possible trade candidates, are not going to get you full value given injury and performance issues (insert your joke here). 5. Even Cespedes' value is decreased by the inability to make the QO . . . trading Napoli is a real possibility. Not a wish. I'm not a mod and not trying to dictate what goes in each thread. Just trying to explain my usage.
|
|
|
Post by templeusox on Nov 25, 2014 12:52:09 GMT -5
One caveat for Betts: I'd trade him and Owens for Bryce Harper in a second.
|
|
|
Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Nov 25, 2014 12:52:08 GMT -5
This off season still feels like it hinges on Lester.
If we sign him, then it seems reasonable that marketable spare parts should be enough to get the next mid rotation piece.
And by marketable spare parts, I do mean Nava, Craig, Victorino, or Cespedes and a second tier pitching prospect or even buck or Kelly for the right upgrade.
I wonder if Cespedes in right is still in Bens mind.
|
|
|