Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 22, 2014 10:54:31 GMT -5
I'm basically in trusting the Sox either way mode on this but have a few random thoughts.
First, I really don't know how the seven years plays out, if it includes 2014 or not. Either way, a $10M AAV isn't a huge gamble.
He hasn't played in a year so there's no way we are going to get any realistic read this year.
We really have no idea what position the Sox envision him in but the off season just got more interesting because we have one more player and one less position to deal with.
Let's count the left handed bats lined up for next year. That doesn't take many fingers.
Proud survivor of a hole in the ozone layer, an ice age, a complete polar cap meltdown, a worldwide millennium computer shutdown, and multiple; solar storms, Mayan calendar dates, Nostradamus quatrains and Apocalypses, China viruses and untested vaccines
Post by pedroiaesque on Aug 22, 2014 10:57:08 GMT -5
This signing actually makes a lot of sense to me from a team building perspective.
It gives the Sox a lot more options for the OF in 2015, with the enviable depth that was missing in early 2014. Cespedes, Craig, and Castillo could be the starting three, with Nava and Holt as the 4th/5th and JBJ and Betts as the depth. Victorino is a bit of a wildcard here, but if healthy he could either slide into RF or rotate between RF and CF. This obviously takes AB's away from Holt and Nava, but Holt has enough positional flexibility that he could go anywhere and is looking more likely like he'll be sitting at 3B anyway.
The interesting aspect of this move is how it impacts 2016. If, after more seasoning at AAA, Betts and JBJ are truly ready to take everyday roles, you can let Napoli walk and move Craig to 1B and/or you can let Cespedes walk without an extension. There are a bunch more options, but these feel like the first dominos to fall. In this regard, 2015 will be incredibly interesting because it should be very important for shaping the future of the Sox for several years.
This signing actually makes a lot of sense to me from a team building perspective.
It gives the Sox a lot more options for the OF in 2015, with the enviable depth that was missing in early 2014. Cespedes, Craig, and Castillo could be the starting three, with Nava and Holt as the 4th/5th and JBJ and Betts as the depth. Victorino is a bit of a wildcard here, but if healthy he could either slide into RF or rotate between RF and CF. This obviously takes AB's away from Holt and Nava, but Holt has enough positional flexibility that he could go anywhere and is looking more likely like he'll be sitting at 3B anyway.
The interesting aspect of this move is how it impacts 2016. If, after more seasoning at AAA, Betts and JBJ are truly ready to take everyday roles, you can let Napoli walk and move Craig to 1B and/or you can let Cespedes walk without an extension. There are a bunch more options, but these feel like the first dominos to fall. In this regard, 2015 will be incredibly interesting because it should be very important for shaping the future of the Sox for several years.
A really reasonable take. I still think they bail on Nava though and/or try to get something for Cespedes. "The Killer C's" just doesn't have enough ring to it, anyway.
If they are willing to let JBJ/Betts ride it out in AAA for a year, and put off making any decisions, I think that would be awesome for all involved, and let the Sox control more prime vs. development for those kids. Unfortunately, I think R5D and 40 man spots may prevent some of that... there wasn't a ton of crunch (I dont think Ramos/Almanzar/Coyle/KDLC will be added) but if the FO likes those kids, there may be some decisions made.
Post by widewordofsport on Aug 22, 2014 11:08:00 GMT -5
No way you can give up Betts for Hamels. Just out of principle with what they have been demanding in trades, you gotta win that one. Take the whole Hamels deal and give up Lavarnway/Nava (obviously not, but really I'd be hesitant to trade with a crazy person).
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Castillo counts for $10.36M against lux tax threshold in '14, but Sox had room to add him w/o incurring luxury tax <a href="http://t.co/ICjbazKbha">http://t.co/ICjbazKbha</a></p>— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) <a href="https://twitter.com/alexspeier/statuses/502849155547422720">August 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
Post by GyIantosca on Aug 22, 2014 11:12:16 GMT -5
Okay does anyone have an idea where he bats in lineup? Like does he replace Ellsbury at the top ? I see Craig moving over to 1b after next year. I don't know about the ankle situation and running in the outfield won't help in long run. We don't know what happens to Cespedes after next year. I like Betts potential a lot. Victorino can't count on him. He is gone after next year anyway. Nava is cheap now but he is entering his arbitration years and he might not be cost effective soon. Kind of like the Brian Duaback years. When he hit his last year of arbitration Duquette was done with him.
I am so happy for the Sox FO. I thought he wasn't coming here so they flexed there muscles like a top team does.
Last Edit: Aug 22, 2014 11:19:22 GMT -5 by GyIantosca
"I still think they bail on Nava though and/or try to get something for Cespedes." -- Isn't it reasonable to believe that one factor in Castillo's decision to sign with Boston is that there is another Cuban already here?
"there may be some decisions made" -- Ya think? It's getting pretty crowded around here.
I agree with pedroiaesque that Holt might be at third base, and one consequence of this move is that it’s even more likely that Middlebrooks' days in Boston are numbered.
I think they try to move Victorino, if they can find a taker.
Betts is also a loser here; he probably needs to be traded someplace where he can play where he should be playing, second base.
Scott Lauber @scottlauber Note on 7-yr (including '14), $72.5M contract for Castillo: Deal will be backloaded, giving #RedSox flexibility to keep adding in short term
"7th" year is just the stub of this year. The main contract is the same 2015-2020. Again, there needs to be more info to see how this year is treated for AAV/luxury tax purposes.
Post by GyIantosca on Aug 22, 2014 11:17:07 GMT -5
Cba, I wouldn't count out Betts yet he is only 21 and has been in system only 3 years. So next year he gets more at bats and continues to work on the outfield. I agree the outfield is a little crazy. I think they could move Nava whenever they want I bet 4 teams would jump at the chance to get him. He is so perfect for a low budget team. I think. We'll see. I hope we have our 3 options with this guy and didn't give up all of our leverage.
Cba, I wouldn't count out Betts yet he is only 21 and has been in system only 3 years. So next year he gets more at bats and continues to work on the outfield. I agree the outfield is a little crazy. I think they could move Nava whenever they want I bet 4 teams would jump at the chance to get him. He is so perfect for a low budget team. I think. We'll see. I hope we have our 3 options with this guy and didn't give up all of our leverage.
Both Betts and Nava are good bets (no pun intended) to be moved this offseason for a 3B and/or pitching. If it wasn't obvious after the trade deadline, it is now.
I don't want to see Betts traded unless he's the centerpiece for Stanton, which is unlikely. He could be on par with Rendon's value a year or two from now, which is pretty damn high. That's optimistic, but there's a lot to like. Signing Castillo doesn't mean we have to trade Betts. Gonna be tough to get him the reps he needs to build his value though.
"I still think they bail on Nava though and/or try to get something for Cespedes." -- Isn't it reasonable to believe that one factor in Castillo's decision to sign with Boston is that there is another Cuban already here?
No. He went to the highest bidder.
Now, I'm sure the Red Sox love the fact that Cespedes can spend the next month easing Castillo's transition culturally, but you don't make major roster decisions based on things like this. Cespedes is a valuable trade chip. And if they didn't think Castillo could handle MLB/America without a tag team partner they wouldn't have given him 70 million.
" I have dreams about Dustin Pedroia." - Greta Gerwig
In the abstract, I'm pleased. In the here and now, I'm perplexed.
I think the last thing the team would want to do is block both Jackie Bradley and Mookie Betts from the only and most likely / valuable (respectively) position they might play for us in the future.
I also think that Cespedes in RF has always been an iffy proposition. And he may not be here after 2015, a possibility that this signing makes likelier.
It's also possible that they think both Betts and Bradley could use another year in AAA, although that's kind of a radical thought.
So ... what are the possibilities?
1) They think Castillo is a good fit long-term in RF despite the so-so arm.
1a) 2015: Cespedes, Betts or Bradley, Castillo. Bench consists of two of Nava, Victorino, and Craig, but probably the first two. 2016 and on: Cespedes? Betts? Craig? Stanton? God?, Betts or Bradley, Castillo.
1b) 2015: Cespedes, Castillo, Victorino. Bench consists of Nava and Craig, who play LF with Cespedes in RF when Victorino is out. 2016 and on: same as 1a.
2) They want Castillo to replace Cespedes in LF after this year. 2015: as either of the above. 2016 and on: Castillo, Betts or Bradley, Betts? Heyward? ??
3) They think Castillo can play 3B. That would actually rock big-time, if he could.
If I were them, I'd be focused on trading for Heyward this winter, which makes more sense if Castillo is not in the OF mix as assumed.
"You either need some medication or you're an a******." -- David Ortiz correctly diagnosing Bobby Valentine
No way you can give up Betts for Hamels. Just out of principle with what they have been demanding in trades, you gotta win that one. Take the whole Hamels deal and give up Lavarnway/Nava (obviously not, but really I'd be hesitant to trade with a crazy person).
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" lang="en"><p>Castillo counts for $10.36M against lux tax threshold in '14, but Sox had room to add him w/o incurring luxury tax <a href="http://t.co/ICjbazKbha">http://t.co/ICjbazKbha</a></p>— Alex Speier (@alexspeier) <a href="https://twitter.com/alexspeier/statuses/502849155547422720">August 22, 2014</a></blockquote> <script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>
edit: #thankstwitter
There is no reason for phillies to trade Hamels for a ham sandwich. He provides good value to them even at a high salary. Getting him will require giving some serious talent, including an OF. But now we have sone extra talent.
"Say something once, why say it again?" Talking Heads Μία χελιδὼν ἔαρ οὐ ποιεῖ, "A single swallow does not make a Spring." Aristotle
Reeks of continued reactionary nature of front office.
Elaborate please.
Sure. 2011 emphasis on defense. Overpay long term deal for those skill sets
2012: recognize mistakes of long term deals. Sell off long term contracts. Flexibility and not being locked into seven year deals is the key.
2013. Sign lots of short term deals, depth and redundancy are the keys.
Win ws, so only long term deals are team friendly ones, discipline and no overpay for back end. Ellsbury walks. Low offer for Lester.
2014. Crater out, no offense, suddenly overextend on dollars and years for Castillo. What happened to offseason talk about discipline. It now is, as Singer writes, "only money" and the "flexibility of short term deals" that was another talking point, goes away.
Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 22, 2014 11:27:07 GMT -5
I would assume the contract is for 6 years plus this one at $72.5M. There is about 22% of the season left. Unless they did something out of the ordinary that would likely be an AAV of $11.66M. The cap number this year would be about $2.56M. I'm not sure where that puts them relative to the luxury tax threshold.
Sure. 2011 emphasis on defense. Overpay long term deal for those skill sets
2012: recognize mistakes of long term deals. Sell off long term contracts. Flexibility and not being locked into seven year deals is the key.
2013. Sign lots of short term deals, depth and redundancy are the keys.
Win ws, so only long term deals are team friendly ones, discipline and no overpay for back end. Ellsbury walks. Low offer for Lester.
2014. Crater out, no offense, suddenly overextend on dollars and years for Castillo. What happened to offseason talk about discipline. It now is, as Singer writes, "only money" and the "flexibility of short term deals" that was another talking point, goes away.
Wait, you mean the Red Sox front office has been trying to fix their weaknesses for years now? Shocking!
“So ... what are the possibilities? 3) They think Castillo can play 3B. That would actually rock big-time, if he could” -- Now that’s some bold thinking right there. Intriguing.